I need a new back!
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thank you my friend!!!
Sold my Hertz Calls March 28 @ 1.45 from 1.30. Post # 18263
Hertz heading into earnings tonight so scalped a profit of .15.
DEEJ, I believe that makes me 9 out of 12.
Thanks,
ukie
Come on HERTZ!!!!! One big push!!!!!!!
The Current Situation
We’ll start with the master chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), as it marks out the risk we are concerned with perfectly. Then, we will set you up with a strong protective play.
Price: We are not ready to give up on 2014’s bull market – yet. For now, we’re just concerned that at 6.5%, the current micro-cycle is getting a bit long in the tooth. And you have to respect the fact that price is approaching the all-time high for the sixth time in eight weeks without a breakthrough. Short-term sell.
Volume: This is not subtle stuff here. Any analyst with a dime-store ruler and a thick black crayon can see the trouble brewing. And indeed, we are seeing traders back away from the market until they know how this fight will play out. Short-term sell.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD): We are seeing the same trepidation here. The fast average’s “Buyer’s Bowl” has flattened out as traders get cautious. Short-term sell.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D): This is the only place that we don’t see a short-term sell signal. But A/D is the slowest of our four signals to react to fresh info, and it’s still biased by the last few days’ strong uptick. Cautious buy.
Summary: We haven’t seen a real new high yet in 2014. A breakthrough here would certainly be bullish, and if it happens we’ll be the first to break out the champagne. But frankly, after six failed attempts we have to insist on seeing that move before we can buy into it. That means we want to have a well-balanced portfolio of long and short plays – and that means adding a put on Monday.
The Telling Details
This week, we saw the notes from Janet Yellen’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, and it seems like we are backsliding to the strange days of Alan Greenspan’s complex and opaque “if/then” statements.
Apparently, the Governors are convinced that the economy is doing quite well, and they’re bound and determined to reduce the rate they purchase Treasury bonds. Unless it’s not doing that well after all, at which point they would certainly “taper the taper.” And they have not been willing to nail down their parameters for any of this.
Janet Yellen
Here’s a particularly mushy example directly from the FOMC notes…
Some participants favored quantitative guidance along the lines of the existing thresholds, while others preferred a qualitative approach that would provide additional information regarding the factors that would guide the Committee’s policy decisions.
On the one hand, the governors could just be trying to carve out a little elbow room early in the new Chair’s term. But on the other hand, this market has been utterly dependent on the Fed’s monies since we crawled off the bottom after the banking crash.
Barron’s Randall Forsyth summed up everyone’s fears when he noted that:
Since 2009, U.S. stocks have moved in lock-step with the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Brass tacks? Wall Street doesn’t like uncertainty, and may try to force the new Fed Chair to clarify her position with another sharp downside move similar to the dips we saw in January.
Good Morning Rap & SOU!
yesterdays earnings plays sucked!
OUTR Feb 70 Calls & Feb 60 Puts total $3.55
Calls sold @ 3.10, Puts expired. Total $3.10
Loss of .45
I believe that leaves me @ 8/11.
Thanks DEEJ
DEEJ, when it comes to a Strangle you are obviously playing both sides. One could take the winning side & wait for a rebound on the second side & give you two winners. I think that the strategy is to show a profit or loss on the entire strangle & treat it as one trade.
Another example, my OUTR Calls were a winner but my puts were a loser. So is that 1 out of 2?
I believe the trade should count as one outcome. The total of the calls & puts together. Which would give me a loss on the trade.
I'll write it up in a few minutes. Your take?
Pissed!
JWN actually reported good earnings. They beat on EPS and beat on revenue. Normally this is a formula to send a stock higher, but we’re not seeing that here because the guidance they released for the rest of 2014 is well below what the market had predicted. Essentially, they made more money than expected last quarter, but going forward, they will make less than expected. Adding insult to injury is that JWN is getting downgraded at a couple different firms.
That said, the stock has shook off the opening weakness, and is holding right around unchanged. Considering the long term bulls in this name, I’m not necessarily in a rush to get out, but will certainly be keeping a close eye on this one as the day progresses. If I don’t like what I see, I won’t hesitate to move to the sidelines.
Cabot Oil is a different story. COG also beat on EPS and revenues, and also announced plans for a number of new agreements to do business with gas pipeline companies. On the face of it, this looked like a very strong report, and the stock was holding strong up +2% after the close. Clearly this strength didn’t hold as COG opened, and sank like an absolute rock.
It got as low as $36.29 before rocketing higher, and at this point, is trying to settle into a range. Much like JWN, I want to watch this as the day goes on, but it is very unlikely I hold this position through the day.
Getting a little concerned about pre market down volume on my two late earnings plays.
good morning sdh!
GM DEEJ! GM SOU!
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2013 Financial and Operating Results
PR Newswire
Cabot Oil & Gas 7 minutes ago
HOUSTON, Feb. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) today reported its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2013. Highlights for the full year include:
•Record production of 413.6 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), an increase of 55 percent over 2012
•Record cash flow from operations of $1.025 billion, an increase of 57 percent over 2012
•Record discretionary cash flow of $1.098 billion, an increase of 61 percent over 2012
•Net income of $279.8 million, or $0.67 per share, an increase of 112 percent over 2012 net income
•Net income excluding selected items of $298.1 million, or $0.71 per share, an increase of 115 percent over 2012 net income
•Total unit costs (including financing) of $3.03 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), an 18 percent improvement over 2012
•Total cash unit costs (including financing) of $1.28 per Mcfe, a 26 percent improvement over 2012
•$165 million of share repurchases funded primarily through non-core asset sales
Full-Year 2013 Financial Results
Equivalent production was 413.6 Bcfe in 2013, consisting of 394.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas and 3.2 million barrels of liquids production. These figures represent increases of 55 percent, 56 percent, and 34 percent, respectively, compared to 2012. "Our record production growth in 2013 was generated 100 percent organically through the drill-bit and results in a three-year compounded annual production growth rate of 47 percent," stated Dan O. Dinges, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer.
Cash flow from operations in 2013 was $1.025 billion, compared to $652.1 million in 2012. Discretionary cash flow was $1.098 billion in 2013, compared to $680.1 million in 2012. Higher equivalent production drove the year's overall improvement, partially offset by lower realized natural gas and oil prices and increased absolute operating expenses associated with higher production. "Despite lower realized commodity prices, our cash flow growth in 2013 outpaced production growth as a result of continued decreases to our cost structure," explained Dinges.
Net income was $279.8 million in 2013, or $0.67 per share, compared to $131.7 million, or $0.31 per share, in 2012. Excluding the effect of selected items (detailed in the table below), net income was $298.1 million, or $0.71 per share, in 2013, compared to $138.9 million, or $0.33 per share, in 2012.
Natural gas price realizations, including the effect of hedges, were $3.56 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2013, down 3 percent compared to 2012. Oil price realizations, including the effect of hedges, were $101.13 per barrel (Bbl), down 1 percent compared to 2012.
Total per unit costs (including financing) decreased to $3.03 per Mcfe in 2013, down 18 percent from $3.69 per Mcfe in the 2012. All operating expense categories decreased on a per unit basis relative to last year except for transportation and gathering expense, which increased from $0.54 per Mcfe in 2012 to $0.55 per Mcfe in 2013, primarily as a result of increased Marcellus production volumes, slightly higher transportation rates and new transportation agreements in the Marcellus. Cash unit costs (including financing) decreased to $1.28 per Mcfe in 2013, down 26 percent from $1.74 per Mcfe in the 2012.
During 2013, the Company received approximately $324 million of gross proceeds from previously announced non-core asset sales in the Mid-Continent and West Texas. These proceeds were used, in conjunction with cash flow from operations, to fund the Company's $1.195 billion of capital expenditures and the Company's $165 million of share repurchases.
"This past year was a tale of two halves regarding the outlook for Cabot's natural gas price realizations, but in the end we met the challenge by delivering record-setting results for production, cash flow and reserves," said Dinges. "The key for 2014 is to continue to maximize operating efficiencies and manage our price risk, which will allow Cabot to further improve on the past year's record results."
Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results
Production in the fourth quarter of 2013 was 121.9 Bcfe, consisting of 116.7 Bcf of natural gas and 869,000 barrels of liquids. These figures represent increases of 55 percent, 56 percent, and 34 percent, respectively, compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. "As a result of an exceptional quarter operationally by our team that included a record number of completed stages in the Marcellus, we were able to achieve the high end of our production growth expectations," stated Dinges.
Cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter of 2013 was $257.9 million, compared to $197.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. Discretionary cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2013 was $284.5 million, compared to $223.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. Discretionary cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2013 included the impact of $34.2 million of current taxes associated with tax gains on the Mid-Continent and West Texas divestitures.
Net income in the fourth quarter of 2013 was $77.9 million, or $0.19 per share, compared to $40.9 million, or $0.10 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2012. Excluding the effect of selected items (detailed in the table below), net income was $74.4 million, or $0.18 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to $57.1 million, or $0.14 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Natural gas price realizations, including the effect of hedges, were $3.44 per Mcf in the fourth quarter of 2013, down 12 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. Oil price realizations, including the effect of hedges, were $95.57 per Bbl, down 9 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2012.
Total per unit costs (including financing) decreased to $2.82 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2013, down 13 percent from $3.25 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2012. All operating expense categories decreased on a per unit basis relative to last year's comparable quarter except for depreciation, depletion and amortization expense, which increased from $1.47 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2012 to $1.49 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2013, due to slightly higher amortization on our unproved properties. Cash unit costs (including financing) decreased to $1.19 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2013, down 23 percent from $1.55 per Mcfe in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Nordstrom Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2013 Earnings
Achieves Record Sales and EPS for the Year
Business Wire
Nordstrom, Inc. 10 minutes ago
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) today reported fiscal 2013 earnings per diluted share of $3.71, which exceeded the Company’s full-year outlook of $3.65 to $3.70. The Company continued to make progress in executing its customer strategy through its investments to drive growth across channels, while maintaining disciplined execution around inventory and expenses.
Similar to many other retailers, the Company follows the retail 4-5-4 reporting calendar, which included an extra week in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 (the "53rd week"). The 53rd week represented net sales of approximately $162 million and earnings per diluted share of approximately $0.04 for both the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2012. The 53rd week is not included in same-store sales calculations.
Earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter ended February 1, 2014, were $1.37 compared with $1.40 for the same quarter last year. Fourth quarter net earnings were $268 million compared with $284 million for the same quarter last year. The Company’s fourth quarter sales performance reflected trends consistent with its experience throughout the year. Total Company same-store sales increased 2.6 percent, compared with last year’s increase of 6.3 percent. Total Company net sales of $3.6 billion were flat with the same period in fiscal 2012. Excluding the 53rd week, total company net sales increased 5.2 percent for the fourth quarter compared with the same period last year.
During the fourth quarter, the Company issued $665 million of 5.00% senior unsecured notes, due January 2044. The Company used $400 million of the proceeds to retire all senior unsecured notes due June 2014. The remaining debt was exchanged for $201 million of outstanding 7.00% senior notes, due January 2038, and to pay for the related premium. The net impact of these transactions is expected to reduce future borrowing costs. Earnings before taxes in the fourth quarter were reduced by non-recurring expenses of approximately $14 million, or earnings per diluted share of $0.04.
FOURTH QUARTER SUMMARY
• Nordstrom same-store sales, which consist of the full-line and Direct businesses, increased 2.2 percent compared with last year’s same-store sales increase of 6.1 percent. Top-performing merchandise categories included Cosmetics, Accessories, and Men’s Shoes. Momentum continued in Women’s Apparel, outperforming the Nordstrom average for the quarter.
• Full-line same-store sales decreased 3.3 percent compared with last year’s same-store sales increase of 2.2 percent. The Southwest and Southeast regions were the top-performing geographic areas.
• Direct same-store sales increased 30 percent, building on last year’s increase of 31 percent, driven by expanded merchandise selection and ongoing technology investments to enhance the customer experience.
• Nordstrom Rack net sales increased $71 million, or 10.2 percent, compared with the same period in fiscal 2012, reflecting 22 new stores during fiscal 2013. Nordstrom Rack same-store sales increased 3.6 percent on top of last year’s same-store sales increase of 7.1 percent.
• HauteLook same-store sales increased by 30 percent.
• Gross profit, as a percentage of net sales, decreased 55 basis points compared with the same period in fiscal 2012 primarily due to increased markdowns in response to heightened promotional activity during the holidays and higher occupancy costs related to Nordstrom Rack's accelerated store expansion.
• Sales per square foot decreased 2.4 percent compared with the same period in fiscal 2012, but increased 2.2 percent when excluding last year’s 53rd week. Ending inventory per square foot increased 9.4 percent compared with the same period in fiscal 2012, outpacing the adjusted increase in sales per square foot. This was primarily attributable to the planned investment in pack and hold inventory at Nordstrom Rack, which represented 11 percent of total inventory at the end of fiscal 2013, compared with 9 percent in fiscal 2012. The increase also reflected planned inventory increases in full-line stores to fuel growth in well-performing merchandise categories. The Company believes its inventory level as of the end of the year is appropriate.
• Selling, general and administrative expenses, as a percentage of net sales, decreased 30 basis points compared with the same period in fiscal 2012. This primarily was due to lower selling expenses, partially offset by $7 million of growth-related investments for the planned entry into Canada and for Nordstrom Rack's accelerated store expansion. For fiscal 2013, these expenses were $23 million, in-line with the Company’s annual guidance of $20 to $25 million.
• In the Credit business, overall credit card performance continued to improve with delinquency and write-off rates at approximately a five-year low. Given this performance and the underlying economic trends, the reserve for bad debt was reduced by $5 million.
• During the quarter, the Company repurchased 2.5 million shares of its common stock for $154 million. A total of $670 million remains under existing share repurchase board authorization. The actual number and timing of future share repurchases, if any, will be subject to market and economic conditions and applicable Securities and Exchange Commission rules.
FULL YEAR SUMMARY
• Total Company net sales of $12.2 billion increased 3.4 percent compared with fiscal 2012. Excluding the 53rd week, total company net sales increased 4.9 percent compared with fiscal 2012. Total Company same-store sales increased 2.5 percent, on top of last year’s increase of 7.3 percent.
• Nordstrom same-store sales increased 2.3 percent compared with last year’s same-store sales increase of 7.5 percent. Top-performing merchandise categories included Cosmetics, Men’s Shoes, and Women’s Apparel.
• Full-line same-store sales decreased 2.1 percent compared with last year’s same-store sales increase of 3.9 percent. The Southwest and Southeast regions were the top-performing geographic areas.
• Direct same-store sales increased 30 percent, on top of last year’s increase of 37 percent, driven by expanded merchandise selection and ongoing technology investments to enhance the customer experience. This represents Direct’s third consecutive year of achieving same-store sales growth of at least 30 percent.
• Nordstrom Rack net sales increased $294 million, or 12.0 percent, compared with the same period in fiscal 2012, reflecting 22 new stores during fiscal 2013. Nordstrom Rack same-store sales increased 2.7 percent on top of last year’s same-store sales increase of 7.4 percent.
• HauteLook same-store sales increased by 27 percent.
• The Nordstrom Rewards loyalty program continued to play an important role in reaching new customers and strengthening existing customer relationships. For the second consecutive year, the Company opened over one million new accounts. With 3.8 million active members, sales from members for fiscal 2013 represented 38 percent of sales, increasing from 36 percent in fiscal 2012.
• Return on invested capital ("ROIC") for the 12 months ended February 1, 2014 was 13.6 percent compared with 13.9 percent in the prior 12-month period. A reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial measure to the closest GAAP measure is included below.
CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION UPDATE
In fiscal 2014, the Company’s capital expenditures, net of property incentives, are expected to total between $840 and $880 million, compared with $714 million in fiscal 2013. The majority of the increase represents investments to fuel online and Nordstrom Rack growth in addition to the planned entry into Canada.
Bought COG March 40 Calls @ 1.65. Two plays for earnings release.
Wish me luck! I think I need it!!!!!
OK, I'll bite. Bought JWN March 60 Calls @ 1.69
from .10 this morning to .37 now. Someone has nice profits locked in already.
Yeah. At .38 an option, someone just put up $222,000.
Quite a gamble for earnings. Could be inside info &/or a "tell".
JWN Nordstrom, Inc. Earnings after the bell.
Check out the Feb 62.5 Calls. 6000 Call options were just bought.
I don't golf but willing to trade unique monogrammed golf balls.
I have a golf ball rack on my office wall from trips, golf clubs, company events, etc. All not used & in excellent condition.
If you have something similar we could set up a swap if you're interested.
St Andrews Golf Course
JW Marriot, Desert Springs
U of Illinois
Melitta Coffee
Wheels, Inc
Star Trek
to name a few.
Into my basement! LOL GM SOU! Late to the party. Doctors appointment.
Missed Direct TV & GMCR. Mentioned GMCR yesterday. But that's the way it goes.
We got some rain coming. They said about an inch to a inch & a half.
Plus 40 degree weather will melt most of the snow. Flood watch in effect tonight with thunderstorms. Getting my canoe ready.
Thanks!!! Another single or a double but they do add up.
Damn KSU @ 2.80. Always scalp too early.
Now what to do with Twitter?
GMCR if it pulls back to $115 level, might buy a few calls.
Icahn still has a major short position in this stock.
Now rumor has it that they want a deal with Pepsi. The CEO
said it when interviewed on Fox business.
Sold KSU March 90 Puts @ 2.72 from 2.45 Post # 19344.
DEEJ, chalk up another winner!
While the market is trading nicely higher this morning,(not any more) I’m starting to see signs that we could be hitting a near term top. In yesterday’s action, traders collectively closed around 100,000 February 90 calls in QQQ. With only a few days left in play for these options it sure makes sense to take some profits on what is clearly enormous positions.
So far in today’s SPX trading action, puts have out-traded calls by a ratio of over 3.5-1 (Normally this ratio 1.25-1,) and the majority of these puts have traded on the offer (indicating that they were bought, not sold.)
Granted, these are certainly not the best indicators, and that’s why we’re not rushing into new put positions.
Nice. Getting that magic back!
Looks like almost everybody has some action all over the board. Diversity!
Good luck guys!
Don't think of it as luck. Think of it as you know what you're doing. Sure seems that way.
Hey DEEJ! What's shaking besides my second chin?
Bought puts thinking the market was heading down this morning.
Is today the day the market finally takes a breather? It sure seemed like it off the open, but since then, the dip has been bought, and we are off to the races once again.
Frankly, I’m hesitant to do very much in this market. I’m not thrilled about buying puts until we see some sort of weakness, and I certainly don’t want to add more calls after 9 days of massive gains.
So I bought KSU Puts & the market is taking off. I was thinking of the support level @ $80 from the info I posted yesterday. Damn.
Bought KSU March 90 Puts @ 2.45
SOHU great job! GM SELF & SOU!
Interesting. FUEL insiders sell $70 mil last week. Stock is up 1.52.
7 insiders last week sold over 1.9 million shares – worth just under $70 million –in Rocket Fuel (FUEL – NASDAQ). This is a company that provides artificial-intelligence digital advertising solutions. The company offers artificial intelligence-driven solution — which are basically highly-automated, measurable digital advertising campaigns. This is something we’ll keep an eye on going forward.
Not a sales pitch. Just sharing some info:
Costco Wholesale operates 642 membership warehouses in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the U.K., Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia. It also has a robust online presence to capture any sales that might fall through this incredible net.
So what does it sell? Basically, everything – and then some.
Costco
The first time I went into a Costco, I was immediately overwhelmed by the smell of toasted salmon samples side by side with two-story tall stacks of truck tires. But after my initial nausea wore off, my wife and I bought about four times more stuff than we had gone in looking for, including some kind of digital espresso machine that promptly went into a cabinet, never to be seen again.
That’s the brilliance of Costco’s model. According to Motley Fool’s Zahid Waheed:
Costco’s long-standing strategy of offering low prices is definitely working. The company believes that this strategy will continue to increase its membership club, which will add more revenue in the future. Therefore, it’s sacrificing its short-term earnings for future growth. The additional $38 million in membership fees during the quarter was a direct result of huge discounts being offered at the retailer, which made its membership more enticing.
In the last few years, Costco has invested heavily in upgrading its e-commerce business and in-store IT modernization. According to the company’s CFO, Richard Galanti, this heavy investment was one of the reasons why the company’s earnings fell by three basis points. The spending is likely to continue this year as well, due to which the company’s earnings will get affected to some extent. However, this will enhance Costco’s store efficiency, which will drive more market share in the long run.
Costco is expected to open 16 more stores in the U.S. during fiscal-year 2014. Overall, the company has plans to open a total of 30 stores this year, including two stores in its new market – Spain. As the U.S. market is getting saturated with intense competition, retail margins aren’t expected to jump in the near future. For this reason, Costco is also focusing on markets such as Australia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and Spain.
Waheed is very excited by Costco’s long-term prospects, which is fine because this is the theorem that will entice investors to buy in to COST shares. Now let’s work through COST’s numbers to see if they can support his theorem.
COST is trading for $115.66 a share as I write, with some 439.72 million shares outstanding, yielding a market cap of $50.85 billion.
Revenue for the past 12 months was $106.46 billion, and quarterly revenue growth was a reasonable 5.50%.
Gross profit was $13.21 billion, net income available to common shares was $2.05 billion, earnings per share was $4.64, and quarterly earnings growth was 2.20%.
Finally, trailing price to earnings comes in at 24.94, which is a little rich for my tastes but we are seeing similar P/Es across the industry – and once again, I am not looking to marry the sector or the stock. Rather, I am far more interested in the next few weeks’ action.
Looking to COST’s chart, we see the stock about to benefit from not one or two but three different tailwinds – the broader market’s return to its rising trend, retail’s cyclic rebound after a post-holiday sell-off, and COST’s own rebound off the bottom of trend.
COST 021314
COST has demonstrated six previous Sell Signal Stacks over the past three years. The median follow-on gain was 24.30% and the average follow-on gain was 24.70%. A similar micro-cycle gain now would see COST shares hit $135.95.
We might even see COST follow the exceptional model demonstrated by previous dips all the way to the bottom of trend. This sort of move would carry COST to $143.41.
However, I have labeled this market a cautious buy, liable to bite trusting fingers in a heartbeat. With that caveat in mind, option traders should probably target $122.50 as a far more reasonable exit.
Going out to July.
Bought COST (Costco Wholesale) July 115 Calls @ 5.38
Enjoy the day off on Monday! Talk to you on Tuesday.
You could also use Time & Sales. Shows the exact time a trade was placed, the price, size, exchange & condition.
Condition applies to Form T, Between B&A, Form T, Below Bid, At Ask, Out of Sequence, Between Bid & Ask, Out of Sequence, At Ask & so on.
OUTR will be the other half of the strangle. The premiums on the put side will not give me enough to make the strangle profitable.
Hertz, I should of cut loose but going to ride it out.
Any bid support would be welcome.