Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Bungler, I agree. $2 looks pretty good to me. We won't know if bavi-immunotherapy will work in humans for years. The dilution while waiting will be devastating without multi-million dollar partner support.
Paul
The Sunrise trial was Peregrine's ticket to near term success. Either as a go it alone company or as part of lucrative partnership. It didn't happen. It doesn't really matter why.
The only question worth asking is how Peregrine can go forward with very limited financing resources available.
We need to hear a concrete action plan at the CC. Analysis of the failed Sunrise is not likely to do anything to improve Peregrine prospects for future success IMO.
Peregrine management has to realize there is no time or money to waste. Cost cutting must be quick and painful. A partner willing to front Bavi-immuno trials must be found in a matter of months.
If a partner cannot be found in short order, the company will run out of money. At that point all that's left is Avid. Could be worse, I guess.
Paul
Bungler, I still don't see any conspiracy. Bavi simply did not perform in Sunrise the way we hoped. Many things work in the lab that don't work in the clinic.
Bavi may still find a place in cancer therapy. I just don't think retail investors will give Peregrine management the resources to try yet again.
So, I think if they can't get partner help, they might as well become Avid Bioservices, Inc.
Paul
Bungler, I don't know why anyone would expect some kind of good news at the CC. Maybe in the past, but not now.
Management needs to show us they have a way forward both clinically and financially. They need to show us they understand they cannot expect to raise money as easily as they have for the last few years. They need to show us how they will conserve cash.
I think they need to make a strong case for continuing Bavi development. Clearly they and we were wrong about Bavi-chemo in lung cancer. Didn't work well in liver or pancreas cancer either. Facts are facts.
Maybe Bavi will do well in breast cancer. Maybe Bavi-immunotherapies will work well. I'm not comfortable with "maybes" anymore.
If they can't make the case to continue Bavi, I'd like to see them bite the bullet and ax the drug development program in favor of mabufacturing with Avid.
This is no time to pretend Peregrine can go forward as in the past IMO.
Paul
A very big question. Was Peregrine management prepared for a Sunrise flop? Like us, I'm sure they did not expect it. Unlike us, they should have been prepared if it happened.
Maybe we'll get a good sense of this next week at the CC.
I just hope they don't spend the CC analyzing the heck out of the Sunrise trial. Analysis is well and good, but action to move the company forward in its radically different situation is what I want to hear about.
I don't think I am alarmist. In my assessment Peregrine will be very hard pressed to raise money without dramatic dilution. So, I want to hear how they see a way forward.
Paul
Fear mongering? I am afraid. I am afraid my PPHM shares will be a total loss. I am not mongering fear to anyone but Peregrine management.
I would love to be reassured that Peregrine management knows the Sunrise failure has eliminated any prospect of near term success, as well as eliminated their prospects of attracting new investors for a very long time.
I want Peregrine to succeed, and I am pointing out what I believe is the painfully difficult path they will have to follow.
Paul
Hopefilled, I don't know anything about shorting a stock. I still have my 80K shares of PPHM. Sadly I was dumb enough to think Sunrise was going to be successful.
From my point of view there is still a faint glimmer of hope that Bavi in combo with immunotherapies may be valuable.
What is clear to me is that Peregrine management cannot afford to act as though Bavi approval was a near term thing.
We have no Phase III Bavi anything in process.
After the Sunrise failure, who is going to buy PPHM shares? Not me.
So, they have to push Avid to expand as rapidly as possible. They have to get a partner for the Bavi-immunotherapy effort.
This is where we are. If management does not act quickly, they and we are done.
Paul
Sunrise crashed and burned. If Peregrine has any chance to survive, management must act decisively now.
There is no more easy money out there. They must conserve cash. They need to prove to everyone that they will do the hard things necessary.
The immediate emphasis must be on Avid. Profits from Avid are critical to keeping the lights on.
I don't think Bavi has a future without a partner. After the Sunrise crash, where are they going to find investors brave enough to support them. North Korea?
Get a grip Peregrine management! Start acting like you understand the gravity of the situation.
Paul
Crisis. Nothing less than a crisis. The halting of the Sunrise trial should prompt Peregrine management to go take steps to save the company. They are no longer looking at relative near term approval of Bavi.
They must cut staffing and other costs now. Every day they wait robs them of whatever chance they have to make Bavi a success with the other immunotherapies.
They need to show us that they get it, and they need to do it now.
Paul
Sunstar, the obvious take away is that the Sunrise trial did not move Bavi toward early commercialization.
Given this harsh reality, Peregrine management needs to:
Cut expenses and staffing to the bone yesterday,
Invest heavily in promoting and expanding Avid, and
Find a partner for Bavi development on any kind of reasonable terms.
The party is over.
We and They Made a Big Mistake,
Paul
I just hope Peregrine management understands the rosy path forward to Bavi commercialization is not happening.
From a commercialization point of view Bavi is not one or two years away. It's back to three years at best IMO.
So, the 'going it alone' approach is a loser. It will take too long and cost enormous dilution. Bavi needs a partner if it is to go forward.
They have to allow for the possibility that Bavi is going nowhere.
If so, they are now the proud operator of Avid Pharmaceuticals. It makes sense to focus 90% of their energy on Avid.
Time to dump all the high priced staff. Get lean, and maybe there is a chance to salvage this disaster.
Paul
I feel your pain.
At least we are the proud owners of Avid Pharmaceuticals. If Peregrine has the good sense to lay off the rest of the company, Avid's profitability might actually boost the share price to more than a dollar in a year or two.
Paul
We're toast. The doubters were right.
We are now the proud owners of Avid Pharmaceuticals.
Another story stock bites the dust.
Paul
IFU, much as I enjoy your constant referencing of the minor pancreatic trial, it is not as relevant as the Phase II second line NSCLC trial that produced great survival numbers.
Fortunately, in a few weeks to a few months Sunrise will remove all doubt for objective observers.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Every day without a first look-in PR IMO means longer survival for Sunrise patients. Good for them and good for us.
Can the simulation brain trust say with confidence that Sunrise has already proven Bavituximab a more effective second line NSCLC treatment than Opdivo?
GLTA, Especially Those Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
I expect an announcement of the first look-in within a few days of its occurrence.
If there is no first look-in announcement before the end of March, I will take this as a very bullish indicator.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Meanwhile, every day we don't get a first look-in, patients are living longer with Bavituximab helping their immune systems fight cancer. While I am eager for Sunrise news, I am starting to enjoy the wait for it.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Sunrise brain trust. We know the IDMC shares event data with Peregrine management. We know enrolment was completed a few weeks ago.
Based on this information Peregrine management predicted "early 2016" for the first look-in and "mid 2016" for the second look-in. Of course these look-in data projections are based on the 33% and 50% event thresholds.
Do your spreadsheets/crystal balls give you a likely range of the overall survival for each arm?
TIA, Paul
Biopharm, what better way to outcompete your BP rivals than to acquire Bavi rather than delay it? How much more money might they make selling Bavi rather than wasting money on dirty tricks?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP, I have been paying attention to Peregrine long before your arrival on the scene. The BPs, not just the few you mention, routinely follow the progress of little research bios like Peregrine. They are not threatened by these little guys. Quite the reverse. They rely on them as the source of their basic research. Everybody paying attention to the industry knows this.
When the time is right in their assessment, they will act. Not to derail a promising new therapy, but to pounce on it. Ride it for years, all the while looking for the next promising little company to gobble up.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
JJ1223, remember Bavi is not a monotherapy. Even if Bavi performs near the top of our grand expectations, other chemo and immune drugs will continue to sell. Bavi is not a solo act.
BPs like most of us are always balancing fear and greed. When Sunrise removes fear of failure, then the greed will kick in. That is when the bidding for Peregrine will start. I hope it will be very brisk.
I don't buy the conspiracy theories, and they don't have to be real for us long to make real money on PPHM.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Laughable. The idea that Peregrine-Bavi is generating fear in BPs is ludicrous. BPs buy and sell companies much larger than Peregrine every day. Bavi looks like a winner to me, but it is not in the "silver bullet" class, i.e. it will not put any major BP in financial jeopardy. Suggestions to the contrary have to be considered fantasy until solid evidence is produced.
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof". We have no proof at all. Nothing in the Fargo flap ever supported the conspiracy theory. Nothing, despite the usual mounds of discovery evidence unearthed in the process.
When Bavi proves itself worth a real money purchase, it will be bought. Many of us will make a very nice profit. No conspiracy here.
We will soon see.
GLTA, Especially Those Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP,
I can tell you from good sources that their is some light panic in the corridors and the current PPS counter measures will NOT WORK. Too late
OK, Sunrise Simulation Braintrust, how do you see Docetaxel-Bavi compare with Docetaxel-Opdivo?
Are you all suggesting that a first look-in in late March would give 90% confidence that Sunrise data will finally move Peregrine out of the penny stock ranks?
TIA, Paul
Share price sucks. The number of shares traded in PPHM is so tiny we probably shouldn't let it bother us. Of course it does bother us, because we have zillions of shares and every penny down represents hundreds/thousands of dollars.
The only consolation I see is that the few shares traded each day represent the sentiment of those who do not know or care much about Peregrine IMO. They just trade the price moves. If this is correct, real news will generate the movement of millions or tens of millions of shares. If the real news is positive, as we hope, the share price will leave these levels very quickly. I like to think this real positive news is a few weeks/months away.
If we don't get Sunrise news, because the Bavi-arm patients are living longer, it will be well worth the wait for them and us.
Paul
Hi John R, a shred of comfort I can add to the discussion is that although the share price has been sliding badly for a week or so, no bad news has emerged. If there was any, it would have come out by now IMO.
So, maybe we will see a strong turnaround on good news. Soon would be nice.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
goat, Bavituximab is not a fantasy. Peregrine management would not risk submitting a fantasy to Memorial Sloan Kettering and the premier treatment centers of the United States. The simple conclusion is they know they have something in Bavi, and they are eager to let the medical-scientific world determine just how valuable it might be.
The current Peregrine "cycle" as you see it will end soon. Either in success or failure. Based on my years following the Bavi research from the initial patent applications to the latest clinical trials I like the odds of success.
Bavi success will not make me rich. I am already financially independent. It would be nice, and I could blow money on some fun things. However, failure would not affect my current pleasant lifestyle at all.
Those who constantly berate Peregrine's prospects with Bavi do so in the face of considerable data that suggests otherwise.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
nuke661, thanks for the informative post. I do hope Peregrine can take another crack at pancreatic cancer. It is such a nasty disease.
Despite your sincere efforts, I don't think we will see any change in the posts of those who are more interested in selling their point of view than the actual merits of Peregrine.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Spankyvol, what detractors?
We have the Steve King is a poor speaker group.
We have the management rewards themselves while shareholder suffer group.
We have the Bavi is a placebo group.
We have the management botched the Phase II group.
We have the reverse split is coming soon group.
We have the why do "dog and pony" shows group.
We have Bavi didn't work in pancreatic cancer, why would it work in anything else group.
We have the Cotara didn't pan out, why would Bavi group.
Need I go on?
I simply find it ironic that as Peregrine's probability of success with Bavituximab rises, the detractor activity seems to rise as well.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Amazing, isn't it? The closer we get to crucial Sunrise Phase III trial results, the more intense the detractors get.
We longs should see the huge return on our investment in a few months. If we do, the detractors will scatter like crows picking at road kill. Won't that be sweet!
All I know for sure is I will not consider selling any of my PPHM share until we get the second interim look. Maybe not then.
GLTA, Especially Those Long Lived Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Clearly, Bavituximab does seek out and attach to PS on cancerous cells. Clearly, Bavituximab alters the cancer micro environment from immune system suppression to immune system stimulation. Anyone who follows the science knows this to be true.
What we don't know yet is whether the clearly demonstrated effects are enough to significantly improve patients lives. This Sunrise should clarify. Maybe it will be clear enough to move "us" well above the current miserable share price.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bavituximab works. The only question is how well it works. Sunrise will give us the first irrefutable evidence one way or the other. That proof is a few months away.
Of course, it may prove that bavituximab works better with immunotherapies than chemotherapies. We can wait for that answer if Sunrise comes through with data that moves the FDA, the BPs, and the market. Otherwise, I don't like to think what will happen to the share price while waiting for the Bavi-other immunotherapies tests.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
King noted the Sunrise trial is "powered to show an approx. two months improvement in median overall survival".
Wonder what that means. Wonder why they chose two months. The trial was designed with the FDA. So, does that mean if they achieve the two month increase, they will get FDA approval?
If the trial was powered to detect a stat sig two month improvement, what would it mean if the improvement was four months or six months? Good things I suppose.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
North, what I noted was King clearly stating that the first look-in will be in the first quarter. It may not produce much detailed information, but it is coming in the next two months.
The time between the first and second look-ins should only be about two months. So, before the end of June I expect to see survival data.
The long wait for crucially important news is almost over. Once the survival data is available, we may just move out of this miserable share price area.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Couch, with the other Bavi studies in process Bavi's approval for lung cancer could quickly lead to additional demand to support off label use.
We are getting ahead of ourselves, but it is fun to look ahead to what could be a very lucrative future.
GLTA, Especially The Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
The recent unnecessary PR by Peregrine at least shows management is aware of the share price collapse. However, they are unwilling to take the kind of action to quickly turn it around.
This may be a smart decision or a dumb one.
Making a deal with some BP would probably boost the share price and convince the small group of traders who profit from the low PPHM share price to find another company to prey on. Of course, the equity dilution and loss of control over Bavi would be the cost.
On the other hand, if they can achieve great success with Bavi without making some kind of morale boosting deal with a BP, could ultimately prove very smart. In fact their unwillingness to do this kind of deal may represent evidence that management is highly confident of success in Sunrise and the other trials in process or launching soon. I'm sure others would say the absence of deal with a BP is proof Bavi is not considered valuable.
We are facing crunch time. We are told the Phase III Sunrise early look-ins are approaching. By mid-year we should know which way this will turn. Having come this far, I am sitting tight until we get the look-in data.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Surrise Patients,
Paul
cjgaddy, if Bavi can come through in Sunrise and the TNBC trial, I like to think the FDA and the BPs will react promptly and positively.
GLTA, Especially Those Critically Important Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
cjgaddy, clearly Peregrine management is charging ahead at full speed on Bavituximab.
I hope and believe the BPs are more impressed by this news than the usual handful of traders in PPHM shares.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Goat, I hope you sold all your shares. I wouldn't want you to watch the share price go down any more. As the holder of thousands of shares, it is unpleasant.
Of course, if Peregrine management succeeds in this all out effort to expand Bavi into multiple solid tumor types, you may want to hold onto a few shares. They might even be valuable enough to buy a latte for you and a few friends at Starbucks by mid-year.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
R_M, if a few of our posters can estimate early look-in dates based on assumptions for the rate of enrollment and the survival in the two Sunrise treatment arms, how much better able is Peregrine management knowing detailed enrollment and detailed eventing information to estimate how the survival per arm is going? I think a lot better able.
Given this assumption, what can we infer from Peregrine management activity, postures, etc. about their sense how the Sunrise trial is going.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul