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yep: anyone who does not is killing themselves they just dont know it yet. neph will take a while to pay off but it will some day. this is a battle ground stock and once the shorts are exposed we will get some cash out of this. hold on to your shares and vote with the board. - con
also they would be the only currently available device
awesome, thanks mike; any info you or your trading circle have on situations where brokers had to make good or someone on the naked short side of the trade had to pay i would love to see.
the one instance where i was in a stock where this happened was CSHD.ob and the company got crushed like you stated.
thanks again - con
MikeyK:
i have been down this road also with DTC pulling sharecounts ect. naked short shares were very evident but nobody ended up "having to buy back those shares"
have you encountered a few instances where this has happened cause you stated this:
"naked shorting is a gamble and can back fire on the perpetrators (naked shorters) and now they will be forced to pay back the money they made by selling these fake shares."
also can you list those ticker symbols where it happened. thanks in advance, i would like to look at the charts of how those stocks traded and get some incite into what we are dealing with here
Best simple explanation of rev. split i've seen
You will have roughly 1/2 the shares you have now, but the O/S will only be 1/4 the size it is now, effectively giving you 2 times as many shares when compared to the O/S, but 1/2 of everyones shares will be tied to warrants which are not borrowable, transferable, or shortable.
many cant see why this kills shorts but this explanation does a nice job of showing why that is so. i felt the same way the very first time i read the offering. i saw it as and attempt to keep or even slightly improve a true long, and also lambda's percentage of ownership in the company; while at the same time drasticly reducing the publicly traded float. all those who are calling this dilution and running their mouth really have no idea what is going on here. this was a well though out offering and the first one i have seen like this. yes i have participated in rights offering in the past. I feel strongly that this will work out in the best interests of all shareholders including wex/lambda if you fully subscribe.
-con
around nov 15th, i think today's 0 volume and the lightening up in the short numbers is a very good sign. something is changing
smokey; i honestly think this is the best neph has looked in a long time.
most 'penney' stocks would be dead right now. but neph is not most penny stocks. remember this was a 6 dollar stock back on it ipo and the vast majority of share stayed put right in the owners hands. that tells me the technology here works and has real value. some on yahoo think co. may be worth 3 bucks, about 200 million in market cap right now!
now why has this stock been hammered and why is it trading at .20.
3 reasons, all related;
1. a major esrd co. like gambro or ferenius has influence at the fda
and is stalling the approval process
2. same or another power that be has MM's or even help at the sec level to look the other way on the naked short selling of neph, maybe even in an attempt to do a hostile take over (same thing happened with dendreon)
and by the way if you dont think the U.S. markets are that corrupt, think again
3. neph has taken longer than expected to become cash flow positive.
the good news is number 3 will change in the next 3 quarters or so and this share offering looks like neph thinks it will get a reversal of the fda's decision within 6 months, i base that on the amount of cash Lamda is fronting to keep us going till feb.
hold, do not sell now and you will have a good investment come 2011
Setting high sell triggers cant hurt
... 10-Oct-10 05:59 pm
as was mentioned in another post, as well as notifying your broker that your neph shares are not to be traded, or borrowed upon, will certainly rein in shorty.....especially with such a lo o/s float.
this is a great idea with the rev/split coming and i think why the price was up today.
come on all, set a very high limit and make the MM's a little nervous as to where they will get their shares to cover from!
my point was the amount of the split will really not matter at that point because the price we trade at will be inverted by that exact same amount.
does this help?
20:1 rev. split
the thing to remember about splits and reverse splits is that the price adjusts by the inverse amount of the split as it is happening.
if a stock is $10 and splits 2:1 then it trades at $5 but you have twice the shares.
if a stock is $10 and rev-splits 2:1 then you have half the shares but the stock trades at $20.
so take the rev-split out of the equation as that is really immaterial.
after all is said and done shareholders stay about the same but have to pay a small amount to do so. Also half of the investment force all to go long term.
overall this will stop the trading games, force mm's to trade this in a real market, and completely derail whoever has been manipulating the stock. this was not really an attempt to help shareholders, just an attempt to keep all things equal, keep neph in business, and straighten out trading. oh and Lamda get some cash and a modest amount of greater ownership now as opposed to later for their loan. - con
the news will come. they have legal requirements and checks and balances to go through on fda side and for neph's lawyers. if you see my earlier post i predicted we would not find out the outcome of the meeting for about 2-3 weeks, but stay tuned. the price action it telling us someone knows and is not shy about accumulating shares. - con
dianne are you insane?
nobody in their right mind is "thinking" that "bad news" came out of that meeting. If bad news came out of that meeting MM's would have shorted this into the micro penny area and we would have nothing left to talk about by now. Get real
i say within 3 weeks we get some info from the meeting, and i say the news will help the pps. - con
Picker;
im not convinced the dilution is going to happen at this point. some have mentioned the military contract being renewed around this time every year and it usually for $1,000,000. i know in theory most of that cash has to go to r and d for that specific product but it keeps the game alive a little longer. i think other factors may be in play that keep this from being a major dilution at these levels or at least nephros will wait till after they see all opions with the fda before moving in that directions.
jmho, but that really seems to me the way they are trying to play this. - con
picker- fundamentals not there but still quarterly losses are getting less and less and the trend is still moving toward break even 3rd Q or 4th Q. Also, most would have to be blind not to notice the favorable base forming on the chart. at this point, even thought volume has been very low, this is a really long base spread out over whats going on 2 months. Many technical indicators are about to cross to a buy and some already there. (RSI 50, 50day MA, ADX, MACD, etc. only thing lacking is some volume conviction to the move.)
-con
my bet is that they dont need the financing any longer. here is my case:
1. we were just about at breaking even per share last quarter with a healthier looking revenue stream
2. the financial details of the ameriwater deal were never released and any cash from the deal or revenue from the deal subsequently could not have been projected in the the 2nd Q earnings release stated we would would be cash poor by this 3rd Q.
3. Wexford will back with needed cash till this gets sorted our anyway to protect their initial investment as this still is cheaper than the alternatives
jmho- con
New neph forum started at deepcapture.com
lets get the neph story out!
deepcapture.com please contact, the more the more powerful or story will be!!!
http://www.deepcapture.com/ it's time to contact them about NEPH's story. they are the ones who exposed the shorting of DNDN and the fda's corruption there. who is in?
-con
low; take it from a math teacher;
your a great teacher. i figured your way was due to more reliability in your experience just needed to have you say it i guess vs. what i was finding in 'the books.' i will go forward logging data on both and get back to you. as always i see the value in the safer bet and i cant argue with your 90% figure.
thanks again - con
low;
im stupid here, but the the link i posted, clearly shows calculating it from the resistance point to the base of the cup to get your total distance then just flipping that to the upside to calc. your target. that is how they come up with the $47 price target on there Macdonald's example in the chart. i check the math several times.
is this your preference or is this website wrong?
thanks again for your patience with me. - con
re:cup w/handle;How Are Technical targets Derived?
The technical target for a cup with handle pattern is derived by adding the height of the "cup" portion of the pattern to the eventual breakout from the "handle" portion of the pattern.
Cup and Handle Pattern for McDonalds Corp.
i cant get the image to paste so please check this link
http://www.smallcapreview.com/CupWithHandle.htm
it seems to me that the starting point on the calculation is where the breakout occurs, ie in the case of neph yesterday 1.06. and the distance from the bottom of the cup to the resistance point(1.06)vertically, is just added to the top of the resistance point to give a longer term price target. so in this case i still come up with 1.06 - 0.76 = .30
then .30 + 1.06 = 1.36 as a medium term projected target. i understand the value of only counting on 75% of this projection but i first think we all need to be on the same page as to how to project our targets.
Low can you give your expert explanation to help clarify for us all?
thanks all - con
also; isn't a cup w/ handle a continuation of a bullish pattern?
so as low points out, after these three day it may retrace some, but can i also expect the longer term trend to continue up?
just when i thought i was starting to get it. - con
why doesn't the handle breakout begin once resistance has been broken?
ie, if the price hit 1.05 and retraced yesterday it would almost look more like a triple top, no? how can anything be called a breakout until it has passed resistance?
thanks for your patience - con
news and good chart and still no comment on neph?
just looking for thoughts, thanks
how would target on the cup with handle be almost reached at 1.15?
first off, low says the 1.15 shadow does not even count so we really only get to count the 1.08 if i am correct.
second, if i understand the cup w handle correctly, you take the low at the center of the cup (.76) and subtract the right side high of 1.06. that difference is the % gain to the upside. so im expecting at least the 1.36 area.
if im wrong can you help?
thanks - con
mokew;
thanks for the reminder about texting, you are right. I should write clearly for others to read. I must say i kinda laughed however when you started your next response to me with. . .
FWIW!!
ha, too funny - con
i must say, low has told me to take profits twice already so don't be too high on neph. im only in because im expecting a really big FDA approval in the next month or 2. price could easily double or triple, or at least get back to the old high on the chart which was 2.63. all imho of course.
ot; NEPH: cup w/ handle and news out -
think this may be an indication that the long awaited approval will soon be in.
chart, what do you think? time to get back in??
low;
if im getting on ur nerves just ignore me.
would u consider neph chart today a cup w handle?
ps - it did get to that 1.15 resistance u spoke of.
NEPH; low what do u think of its chart now?
it is looking better to me.
low, thanks again
shorting:
low do u use the exact same 3 indicators and the MA overlays for a short position and if so have u found it more or less risky?
i ask because i know stocks usually drop faster than they rise so i wounder if there is more upside(% wise and risk wise) to taking the down side of the trade over the long run.
thanks - con
thanks again - con
...and 2 overlays.;
low, which to overlays do u recommend?
thanks low;
it has been an 9month wait for a FDA approval medical device. ive been here a long time cause of buyout rumors if/when approval comes.
NEPH: if anyone wants to give an opinion;
thanks - con
Low-order types;
my broker only allows one order in at a time, and i like your strategy or a stop buy above the resistance pivot point, but if the trade reversed that same day do you ever get screwed by not having a stop loss until the next day your in the trade, or are you using trade triggers of some kind?
- thanks - con
gym g.;
im not new to TA but new to Low's settings, idix looks good to me also just curious;
im thinking i would not enter the trade until it breaks above resistance.
would u set A buy stop order, and would u want it to break the more recent resistance at 3.06 or the previous at 3.15. on my trade im set right now to enter at 3.07.
thanks -con
okay, thanks again, i still am nervous if CMF is not at least positive. just my mindset.
CMF question;
my question is, [what is your poorest or weakest possible entry you want on your CMF(14) setting?
so far ive been using at least a cross to positive, but prefer +.10]
low;
Already wow! thanks. i have back-tested your preferred indicator settings over the ones i was using on about 90 entry points (most of which i would not have entered with my system), my settings were only about 55-60% guaranteed safe winners, yours so far are 10 for 14(the other 76 trades would have never developed) for a 71.5% safe winning ratio!
im continuing to back-test, and saving the before and after chart on each.
thanks again, i have know doubt this will improve my trades and will update the results.