Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Might look at writing a couple of Put Options
on Feb expiry. Make some change and if the option is ITM...
which I doubt, the put owner has given me a couple of bucks a share
discount.
See where a 1,000+ contracts on $15 Feb puts traded today.
As was said before, A little slow on the uptake...
Is $30 the new $15? EOM
And more dates
This is how ASCO handles the presentations of it's participants:
A rough accounting of total possible shares
From the Annual:
As of December 15, 2020, the Registrant had 39,756,417 issued and outstanding shares of common stock.
As of September 30, 2020, there were outstanding warrants which allow the holders to purchase 3,924,467 shares of common stock, with a weighted
average exercise price of $6.54 per share, and outstanding options which allow the holders to purchase up to 8,653,703 shares of common stock, with a weighted average exercise price of $7.01 per share
Greatest possible total share count:
39,756,417 shares
3,924,246 warrants
8,653,703 options
52,334,366 all told.
Warrants exercised between Sept 30 and Dec 15 would reduce that total.
How many shares when all is said and done and BO is commenced?
A very possible end game scenario is a BO but only once the BLA is filed. Realistically last 4Q21 to1Q22.
(IF I were buying I would make that a stipulation. I would also require the brain trust of Cel Sci to sign multi-year employment contracts.)
Depending on the robustness of the trial results, could need to double again the production capacity. $30,000,000 in expenses
Could see an offering for $75-$100 million after data release.
How many shares? Range of 1-2.5 million is a WAG.
Will there be an employee option grant this year?
Total share count at BO in the 54-58 million range.
IMO
SEC regulations on registration statements
Well at least one version
Rule 415
An SEC regulation allowing a publicly-traded company to register a new issue of stock and actually offer it at any time over a two-year period, subject to compliance with other appropriate regulations. This offering is covered by a single prospectus but may be offered to the public in different tranches. This practice is called shelf registration.
Yes, the frequency of re-registering stock warrants is buried deep within the regulations of SECkingdom. Did find somewhere that stated the warrants like the ones Cel Sci issues need to be re-registered every 24 months. Don't have the reference handy.
But:
The Annual does provide this list: Warrants exercised in Fiscal Year 2020
Why biotechs and particularly small cap biotechs are the targets of short sellers.
It's not because the shorters despise medical advancements. It's a numbers game.
The Feuerstein-Ratain rule, that small-cap cancer trials fail, has been hard to refute.
(They have a rule, a principal)
Quotes are cut and pasted from the articles that are linked below, and are regarding phase III trials
Just to clear up the false connotation that the principal personnel are not investing in their company.
Here is a great post from the past
That, my friend is the 10 million share short question.
(Used to be the $64,000 question, but inflation has prevailed...)
Being a little slow on the uptake
That's what I am.
A bit of history.
In the past Cel Sci has had to raise money from Investment Houses that have 'go to' money for a price. What is that price? Deals have to include warrants. The 'go to' money folks short the stock, get the deal done, shares with a warrant attached. Short it down and supply the warrant share to cover. Rinse and repeat.
Became a routine with Cel Sci for years. When a company is issuing warrants with series identifiers as (TT) and (VV) there has been a lot of series of warrants gone on before. Warrants TT issued Feb 2018, VV - Jul 2018.
The number of Feb 2018 TT warrants was 1,387,860
The number of Jul 2018 VV warrants was 3,900,000
By early 2019 certainly Cel Sci would need to raise money.
Come the end of 2018 early 2019 the 'go to' money had built a short position and went to Geert wanting a deal.
Geert hates this process. And finally Cel Sci had enough money to not need to do a 'toxic' deal.
Listen to the Hard Rock Asset Conference May 2019 minute 21 : on the website under presentations.
Paraphrase: Geert 'Last few days stock has suffered a major short attack. What they want is they want me to do a deal with them to cover their short position. And I refuse to do a deal with them. So, every so often they attack us, and every so often I say screw you.'
The point is: Geert has not had to do a 'toxic' deal since July 2018.
The shorts original reason for shorting was, because they've always been in the driver's seat and got what they wanted.
Geert was finally able to stand up to them, and not need their money.
What is the shorters plan B?
Try to dig out something that could scare the longs into selling. Rumors, innuendo, falsehoods, etc.
Post things about how the stock goes down every time Geert speaks. They play mind games with the fragile longs.
They didn't short with the understanding the trial would fail. That was not their first reason for shorting.
Now they have been scrambling since they got turned away from the warrant feast.
And scrambling poorly, with episodes like writing 100 + page 'research' reports that Sushi destroyed.
Seeking Alpha articles that get taken down.
The ever pleasant Adam Feuerstein twittering whenever possible.
The shorts made a casual short position and now are trapped.
Appears the entire market is treated in the same manner.
At the very bottom of the zip file find this summary of the 13 days of trading from Dec 15 thru Dec 31.
Trailer record count 65868
Trailer total quantity of shares 3348884810
65,868 in 13 days is about 5,000 companies a day. Pretty much the entire market.
Bigger Capital is listed on an S-1 filing dated Feb 20, 2020
Link here
Slide on down to page 5 last line is Bigger Capital warrants Series VV holds 60,000.
Then on down to page 6 and the controlling person is Michael Bigger.
When the shares with the warrant series VV were offered.
From the Jan 13, 2016 SEC filing
We are offering 3,000,000 shares of common stock and warrants (Series X) to purchase 3,000,000 shares of common stock. Each share of common
stock is being sold together with a warrant to purchase one share of our common stock for the combined purchase price of $0.37.
Then the next day's filing
On January 13, 2016 the Company sold 3,000,000 shares of its common stock and 3,000,000 warrants to the de Clara Trust for $1,110,000.
Paid for, pre 25 to 1 reverse split. Now the 120,000 shares.
Look at Inovio one of the 'No Way Out' short recommends.
Inovio? That's the comp in your world? Wow!
Street ownership we are admonished is the Holy Grail of where to stick our money.
Whale Wisdom states the Tutes own....(wait for it) 36%
The investment houses say...
I am sure all of you longs read this tweet from our CEO.
That is an astounding statistic.
If I understand that correctly the data years 09 thru 15 is a total of 7 years. The same number of years in data from years 10 thru 16 a total of 7 years.
The adding of one year's data...2016 moved the entire 7 years of data 2% points...to the negative!
Oral Cancer is taking it's toll.
Thanks for sharing, much appreciated.
So Why haven't institutional players been all over this stock?
I asked you previously why 'large' institutional ownership is a prerequisite for a biotech's success?
You set that requirement, why is that a tell for you?
By your thesis, Sarepta SRPT would have been a slam dunk in their recent phase 2 readout.
Outstanding shares: 78.9 million (sourced from TD Ameritrade)
Institutional shares: 70.639 Million (sourced from Whale wisdom)
90% Institutional Ownership...
SLAM DUNK!!!! According to Institutional Ownership:
Before the readout Jan 7 EOD $168.95
Readout Jan 7 at 4:32PM
Interesting thought.
Top Line or Full Data presentation almost never occurs during a conference.
.
Couple of reasons, one: there are not that many conferences.
Second, it would really upstage all the participants in the conference.
Analysts would rush to cover CVM. All the air would go out of all the other conference presenters.
The consensus amongst posters is that data has to be announced within a range of 72 to 96 hours. Most posters, don't find the actual regulation and read it.
Here is the 'time' statement from the SEC.gov site:
This will be a more of a rambling post.
CEO of Cel Sci Geert Kersten is presenting at H. C. Wainwright 2021 BIOCONNECT Virtual Conference. His presentation is already 'in the can' to coin an old phrase from days when film was the medium to capture videos.
Some, perhaps most are thinking, nothing new, waste of time, will be a drag on the share price.
A selfish viewpoint, his presentation has nothing in it for me. That very well may be true.
Step back and look at the scene from another vantage point.
Fifteen (or so) years ago, Cel Sci was finishing up the phase 2 studies and looking to enter the phase 3 portion of biotech startups. This means Cel Sci needs money. Businesses like H. C. Wainwright are the social mixers where money demand and supply are introduced. If it weren't for these early years' money meetings, doubtful Cel Sci would be where it is today.
Geert could be paying respect to the individuals who helped him and Cel Sci all these years. Did Cel Sci get played with some of those deals? Yes, but when it's the only play you take it. Cel Sci is still standing tall. (That's the real world, deal with it, Cel Sci did.)
In looking thru the web at some of the participants in this conference, I see a number of biotechs with share prices under $1. Start ups, run by youngsters with vision, hope, determination. With little clue of how difficult the road can become. These are being run by the future Geert's if you will. Biotechs with a concept, and a lifetime of progress still ahead.
Geert Kersten has become an elder statesmen among small biotech pioneers.
He could be providing some inspiration to the young CEOs. Just recount the incredible battles Geert has guided his staff and company thru. To still be standing is a great accomplishment. These young CEOs will be facing some of those battles themselves, Geert stands as an inspiration.
Geert has mentioned the desire to continue working with Leaps.
A possible scenario is to cut out Leaps at the BO and sell it to a new corporation which just happens to have Geert as the CEO. This new biotech will need cash. He could be keeping his channels open for future opportunities.
It is quite possible this Monday's presentation might not be just about me, and my few shares.
The trial was designed with OS as determined by the length of time for the two comparative arms to reach a combined 298 deaths.
The 3 or 3.5 years was a best estimate of then that would occur.
If trial was only keyed to time, why did it continue until the predetermined event?
The confirmation is right there!
Original trial total was to be 880. Boosted to 928 by the Geertster himself.
928-880=48 which is 4+8 = 12 which is 1+2 = 3!!
He trumps his own prior number!
Prescient!
(Beliefs expressed on this post are not indicative of the beliefs held by the lap top, keyboard, number pad or ethernet.)
I think you have absolutely nailed it.
Numbers hold value, both numerical and spiritual. Numerology, in its simplest terms, is the relationship between a number and its mystical nature on both an individual and worldly level. Numerology is also the study of the numerical value of the alphabet.
A=1
M=13
R=18
N=14
Total of 46
C=3
V=22
M=13
Total of 38
Now what event is CVM trying to duplicate? The events of Sept 21 and Sept 24 as perpetrated by the diabolical leader of AMRN.
9/24 minus 9/21 equal 9-9=0 2-2=0 4-1=3 but now add back the 4 and 1 = 8!!
Why do we need to add back the 4 and 1? Because they didn't cancel each other out like the 9s and 2s did.
Add that 8 to the CVM 38 and one gets 46!!!
The exact same number that AMRN totals!!!
Or one could then add the 4 6 which is AMRN's total and arrive at 10.
and add the CVM's 3 8 and arrive at 11. Which is one more than 10. Indicating that CVM is going to one better AMRN!!
Brilliant GD, brilliant!
Geert may be crafty, but no one outcrafts the GD!!!
(Professional on a closed course. Do not try this at home.)
(Past results are not indicative of future performance.)
(There may be some settling of contents thru shipment.)
(Warranties are limited and not transferable.)
(Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.)
Where is the definite study that shows
Institutional share ownership is a guaranteed predictor of biotech success?
A rising share price is a necessary prerequisite for a biotech to report good data?
As a studious long and long time shareholder Sea Alice, I value your insights.
Approximately 135 patients were enrolled in the trial from 2011-2013.
Would appreciate your breakdown of annual enrollments for those years. Any supporting thesis would be an added bonus.
Kindest Regards,
Bio
No, hadn't tried the FOIA route.
Extensive interweb searches months ago came up with the FOIA log for 2016.
Had downloaded it, clearing some old files and stumbled across it.
Thought I'd throw it out for the shorts to have more fodder for their conspiracy theories.
The attempt to view the FDA letters to Cel Sci in 2016 via FOIA
2016-10413 12/19/2016 Closed Denial SCHULTE, ROTH & ZABEL LLP CEL-SCI CORP - PHASE III CLNCL TRIAL OF MULTIKINE PARTIAL CLNCL HOLD LTR 10/2116
2016-8929 10/26/2016 Closed Denial Smith, Grant T LETTER SENT TO CEL-SCI INC RE CLINICAL HOLD FOR STUDY EFFICACY AND SAFETY STUDY OF LEUKOCYTE INTERLEUKIN, INJECTION TO TREAT CANCER OF THE ORAL CAVITY NCT01265849 09/25/2016 - 10/21/2016
2016-8940 10/26/2016 Closed Denial Anderson, Carl CEL-SCI INC - MULTIKINE CORR 4/1/16 - 10/13/16
Closed Denial!
From the FOIA log, 2017
Kasey Kasum - And the hits just keep on coming!
Lot's of dishes prepared for New Years and many cultural traditions.
Apparently some can dish it out, but resort to having posts removed that effectively negate their stance.
Some can dish it out, but can't take it.
Them's some sore losers.
CVM should be better than having a dentist hitting a nerve.
Feel honored, as two of my posts which were definitely NOT off-topic have be removed for that reason.
Naysayers be like that patient in the dentists' chair.
Happy New Years
Show us biotechs where insiders kept buying...
Look at SAVA, insider bought 500,000 shares year ago. Share price floating along in the $2-3 channel. Bam! Share price up to $10 prior to phase 2 readout mid May 2020.
Couldn't get their data correct on first readout of their phase 2.
Share price Crashes to under $2!!!
So followers of insider buying doesn't equate to success.
(At the time a 25 million share outstanding company, so 500,000 was a big percent.)
Where institutional ownership was greater than 60%.
TCDA enjoyed great institutional demand for their shares last year. Outstanding 50 million, with institutional ownership over 70% for periods of last year. In 2019 priced an offering at $36!!!
By your reasoning MUST be a winner!
OH NO Mr. Bill! July 2020 just weeks before the PDUFA date, the FDA sends TCDA a 'deficiency' letter. (A precursor to a CRL usually)
Come Aug 2020, TCDA receives a CRL from the FDA. Share price tanks to low teens. To go as low as $4 and change in October.
Great idea to follow institutional ownership.
There are numbers of reasons for people to own and trade shares.
To arbitrarily impose that only share purchasers of a certain modus operandi can own a companies' stock and then to utter that the company is somehow a failure because the actual share purchase and sell patterns don't fit one's arbitrarily imposed parameters is classic straw man blow.
Blow the man down, boys, from Sea Alice town;
Give me five minutes to blow the man down.
One version
Aye matey, took care of Sea Chalise there.
Gripping the rails and feeding breakfast to the sharks!
One can read the 10K but they won't find the Financials. They are being re-worked as implied by the 8K filing today.
Was hoping to find the cash on hand...
Sea Alice
Love it, you have a sense of humor.
From the OTC website
Ares Strategic Mng Inc. (TSX-V: ARS; OTCQB: ARSMF) Ares Mining has recently acquired the only permitted and producing fluorspar mine in U.S.
- The Lost Sheep Mine.
What are they mining for again? CVM shareholders? lol
These guys just drip confidence...
Investors Day
Recap of the recent events
The recent $14 million raise. Needed for the expansion of the manu facility.
All that $14 million is spent or earmarked.
Geert tweets that one must be strong in all areas, including money. He stated that is response to someone questioning why TGTX did a money raise rather than an immediate BO.
True that
Listen, I am not very smart. What I have learned through the journey with Cel Sci for just over a year is miniscule. Don't have medical background.
From my understanding, there are so many types trial designs. If you had the opportunity to listen to the presentation this morning, you heard Geert allude to the FDA and how over the recent years, say within the last 10 years, it has changed it's approach to drug approval.
When Cel Sci was designing it's trial, it had to get FDA approval before starting the Phase 3.
There was no interim peak at the data, designed into the trial. If there were an interim peak built in, what would it tell? The benefit that Multikine is designed to achieve isn't realized within the first two years of drug administration.
HNSCC is a killer over the first couple of years once surgery is complete due more to the devastating effect on the Oral cavity. Tongue cut out, jaw bone removed, teeth removed. Such disfigurement, inability to chew, eat, etc. Devastating, so much that people die from those complications.
The effect that Multikine seeks to prove is that it can eliminate the micrometastasis that spread from the tumor into the other parts of the body. The surgery, chemo, radiation regimen take it's toll on the immune system. The weakened immune system have no capacity to fight the micrometastasis that are present in 20-30% of patients. These are the ones that find themselves in a life or death fight with cancer's return.
Anyways, an interim look wouldn't have shown that benefit. Multikine needs time.
Believe the premise in all clinical trials authorized by the FDA is that the Sponsor is removed from the medical process. Greatly lessens the possibility of bias from influencing the process and the outcome.
Therefore the Open or Blinded doesn't refer to the Sponsor, but the actual trial participants.
Those who received the Multikine injections, knew it. Those who were enrolled were certainly informed about the trial and it's medicine and that they had a 4 in 7 chance of receiving the trials' drug. That is what is referred to as an Open trial.
Hope this helps.
Trial is open label...
Refers to the perspective of the patients and researchers.
Based on the facts we know,
And they know more than we do. Tweet from a few weeks ago.
Pretty chipper for a blind man.
Great to have you back Mikedel
Always good to know how the opposition processes information.
First, A Classic Pump and Dump involves someone, not a company employee who builds a position in a company. Once done, they orchestrate some publication about an upcoming event that the company has on the calendar.
For example, a mining company announcing their first drilling core results.
The pump occurs and the person who has built the position, sells or dumps his shares into the run up.
I fail to see the dump in this offering.
Perhaps you could enlighten...?