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$NASI in red
INTC bullish wedge
ALL,
i'm new to wedges, just started studying them this week,
i trade symmetricals, ascending/decending triangles and continuation rectangles
is this a bullish wedge for INTC or a continuation pattern?
ajtj99, BA rising wedge,
question;
would this qualify as a wedge? or am i using the right pattern for BA?
SMH & $NASI
i'm looking at smh weekly stoch and a trending $nasi
bollingers
agree with that BB take,
that is how i've seen it with smh, for instance (today) if there is a move away from the upper band then price would migrate to mid-line, on daily chart not intraday,
I use BB as support for other indicators, to confirm my current direction,
smh and QQQQ today, is still within arms reach of the upper band.
S&P (chart)
we have some room to play with... if there is downside it will be obvious
DOW (chart)
for those following the dow? its not sinking anytime soon
Market Downturn
there are lots of speculation for a downturn, (low volume, extended market, divergence ...etc)
a major correction will happen yes, but every day we go up and stay up makes cash and the bears go mental,
i would ride this baby til the day it fizzles, i would add longs on QQQQ red days when the nasi stays up
ajtj99, MSFT chart
1, is this a bullish chart?
2, would the new mac-windows (aapl) break msft to new highs?
"feel" suspicious?
thats right jim, leave the feelings out, my sentiment is still to the downside but forget all that, price is going up,
QQQQ today
besides trending oscillators, the real significance for today is we broke out of a 4month trading range,
i have heard lots of comments from bulls and bears about tax season, techless rally, high oil prices, fed rates, but S&P DOW & COMP keep going up, and now Semis & Q's are joining the party.
so what do we do? for one, stop listening to the noise and follow the price, stop waiting for the sell-off
absolutely yes, the market will drop like a rock tomorrow, so let it, but we will have at least a days notice. Today, which way is price direction? and what direction are your indicators pointing?
cruzship, Burge resistance
thanks brother,
burge has $sox 10day crossing over 20day (bullish) with resistance at 520 and i have an smh weekly stoch crossing 20 (bullish)
i expect resistance on the way up
Thin Zone
i seen that thin before (maybe cad?) but did not know the magnitude of it potential til now
little fatter yes,
just not as fat as yours
the AAPL thing (comment)
i believe the good news for AAPL is also good news for the tech industry, it will let softwares speak to each other, open competition, (msft lets rhat in?)
i never liked having 2 different CD's (one mac) (one dos) i was waiting for the day mac n dos can start playing together,
a barrier has been removed, instead of just competing for market share, the techies can re-focus competition on better softwares products and innovations,
i do not know if mac n windows will actualy speak to each other (be compatible) but its a start
SMH channel (chart)
i don't like this channel, but sometimes they break, especialy if you have a trending macd
QQQQ target $43.80 (chart)
based on this triangle and todays significant breakout, also the RSI-5 can stay oversold for a week, ndx target 1778
Bollinger use, NDX
hello all,
i have been lurking here the last 24hrs and find this board useful, it was introduced by carabeanjim, also i follow robert new,
adding my 2cents to bollinger discussion as follows, price is hugging upper band and move is supported by daily macd,
bands were tight as some say (a big move coming) they are now widening with price going up, not down,
and no, i do not use BB for trading, only as supporting indicator to compliment current direction
lol
$NASI (chart)
this is the boy that will tell ya if there is downside
NDX (chart)
ndx is hugging upper bollingers supported by daily macd. thats very good,
i hear lots of market speculation (noise) from boards, analyst and gurus, bulls/bears alike, but the charts tell the real story,
at this point, do we move the resistance line again or can we just call this good, let the reading be what it is
my recommendation is stay long, if there is more downside, it will be obvious and not by trader noise
Keith K, busting a move here
agree, its too bad, when does one throw in the towel when wrong or do they keep moving the trendline to fit bias,
SMH thread
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SMH & $SOX holdings
SMH
amd,altr,amkr,adi,amat,atml,brcm,intc,lltc,lsi,mxim,mu,nsm,nvls,sndk,ter,txn,vtss,xlnx
SOX
amd,altr,amat,brcm,fsl-b,ifx,intc,klac,lltc,mrvl,mu,mxim,nsm,nvls,stm,ter,tsm,txn,xlnx
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In reply to: None Date:4/3/2006 11:58:28 PM
SMH & SOX upper bollinger (charts)
both the semis are at upper bollingers and the bands are tightening (big move coming). my familiarity with bollingers is, price will now move to the opposite band, that move is supported by resistance (ref Burge S/R)
on the SMH chart i'm showing an MACD break-out similar to the S&P macd break-out posted on 3/16
a bullish move would be;
price breaks thru resistance and supported by breaking thru the upper band & daily macd
what will i do?
(1) wait for a retest of the bottom $34-$35
(2) go all in (long), if i get a full candle above resistance & upper bollinger, which ever is first
i am currently long (some)
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In reply to: None Date:4/3/2006 12:14:02 PM
SMH chart
say goodbye to a retest, if we get a white candle thru the upper daily bollingers,
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In reply to: None Date:3/30/2006 10:25:53 PM
SMH chart
no comment
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In reply to: None Date:3/29/2006 9:41:43 PM
SMH and S&P charts
SMH is the leader S&P is the market gauge, the leader is turning and the gauge is holding steady,
charts are bullish, smh daily macd is at the line, smh weekly is moving away from lower bollinger and S&P stayed above its 1300 break-out
what am i gonna do?
getting ready to go long (all in) but i need confirmation from smh daily macd break-out and daily adx, S&P upside and market follow thru,
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In reply to: None Date:3/27/2006 4:15:54 PM
SMH (chart)
SMH short term target (mid-bollinger) is met,
smh was stuck at 36.40 most of the day, i just do not know if commercial is selling into it or buying.
the call is; smh will restest the low $34 to $35.50 before an all-out rally, if i am wrong, the daily macd break-out will tell me.
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In reply to: cad92648 who wrote msg# 26926 Date:3/25/2006 5:27:01 PM
SMH, one more (chart) cad,
listen man, i have not agreed with your upside charts since you started posting (sorry), but the common thing we have is, we're bulls.
i know you have recently changed your sentiment to bearish, and i am also getting frustrated with the price action.
look at these two charts and see if you see consistency,
i'm thinking this is the bottom or near bottom, i have a downside price target of $33.43 for smh but will have to drop it if the macd trendline breaks out, i will also throw out the tax season downside scenario,
take your time, review and see if you agree the semis are turning, also.... what would trump this? and do we need to close the November gaps before rallying?
All,
the message is for cad but chime in if you have something to add in relation to semiconductors.
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In reply to: None Date:3/25/2006 1:34:20 PM
SMH projection (chart)
chart1,sox, has a target of mid bollinger,
chart2, sox, the bullish flag has broken out with a target area in light blue
chart3, smh, target area is mid-bollingers also pay attention to the macd
chart4, smh weekly (very bullish) significance are the lower trend line, white candle above bollinger and a williams thats about to unleash
Put it all together;
currently the charts are bullish with a minimum target to the daily mid-bollingers, the weekly SMH chart is the bullish of all with a white candle above the lower bollinger and a williams about to break-out. So, a very good case for the bulls.
My sentiment is to the downside with a target of $34.43. The charts are indeed bullish, but not all my indicators are in. i have no wash-out, no spikey candle, no weekly stoch break. I am positive the SMH h/s pattern will materialize but am prepared to me wrong and will draw the line with the daily macd break out (chart 3)
Tax season since 2002
i tallied the last 10days of march and the first 10 days of april, the last week of SMH trading in march have been 2 flats,1drop and a 3point gain, that data is inconsistent for me, the last 10 days of april have been 1 flat, 1gain and 2drops, below is how i divided the time frame,
current semi's position is cash
my message is for traders holding stocks more than one day,
a question would be, why not add long now? 1) its hard to go long when your sentiment is down. 2) i will add a small position to keep up with the mental short term bullishness, 3) i don't make greedy money every day, i build slowly, break even and cut losses early, greedy money comes once a week,
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In reply to: None Date:3/22/2006 2:27:43 PM
SMH & bollingers (chart)
price is moving away from lower bollinger and during a downtrend, the next logical target is mid-line, i would rather short semis at midline or long at the next lower bollinger, which ever is first,
also, the link shows weekly cci, weekly stoch and daily macd, look for those signals to break out for a rally confirmation (no time frame)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p59722979453
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In reply to: Torqputty who wrote msg# 26100 Date:3/21/2006 11:06:31 PM
SOX support at 475 (chart)
i borrowed this bullish wedge from robert new, i do not use it and do know how reliable they are.
but, it coinsides with sox support at 475, SMH November gap at $34.43, SMH 1year lower trendline and SMH weekly lower bollinger.
SMH bottom target is still $33, but i believe at this juncture $sox-475 will be the first 3 day bounce to daily mid-bollingers $36.75 and/or weekly mid-bollingers $37.41,
img118.imageshack.us/img118/2672/smhb4qy.png
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In reply to: wonderboy who wrote msg# 26137 Date:3/21/2006 7:10:03 AM
wonderboy, SMH upside
based on your charts smh is a buy with a minimum upside target of mid-bollingers (weekly)
i will be adding longs at $35 or below, this morning or at the close, for a 2day bounce only (no rally)
here is another bullish chart (ref fishbait chart)
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In reply to: Torqputty who wrote msg# 25592 Date:3/20/2006 5:51:24 PM
SMH target update,
getting closer, initial downside target is Nov gap $34.43- $34.96, with h/s pattern target of $33, my only concern is a fake-up from the weekly williams, before initial target is met.
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In reply to: None Date:3/18/2006 5:07:32 PM
QQQQ and SMH (chart)
Are there similarities with Q's and SMH pattern? The points to look at are 1,3,4,5 in relation to bollingers.
SMH
bulls could make an upside case from fridays spikey candle above the lower bollinger,(its similar to OCT 2005) however the smh bottom is not in yet til we get a double bottom plus weekly upside stoch.
SMH
the last chart (is also) a pretty good idea of smh direction. it depends where you draw the lower line. Again, look for support from the weekly stoch for long positions
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In reply to: None Date:3/16/2006 12:13:53 PM
SMH, & Oct time frame
the downside scenario for smh is similar to OCT-05, as realated to bollingers and spikey candles, The smh weekly stoch will tell me if i am wrong.
lol and happy trading
SMH from 2005
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&st=2005-08-01&en=2005-12-01&id=p05855859131
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In reply to: None Date:3/9/2006 5:51:58 PM
SMH...(chart)
the dragons tongue,
SMH neckline is definitely broken. price goes straight down like the chart suggests or we bounce down. See Oct time frame for scenario. redline represents lower bollinger
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In reply to: Torqputty who wrote msg# 22804 Date:3/4/2006 11:09:49 AM
SMH weekly report
this is a weekly channel of smh suggesting downside to $35.
I am adding long at $37 based on daily support.
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In reply to: Torqputty who wrote msg# 22550 Date:3/2/2006 9:21:57 PM
SMH report (chart)
except for that halo, this formation is very bullish.
if it breaks up go with it and add long if it drops to $37
the second chart is SBUX from post 19088
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In reply to: None Date:3/1/2006 8:48:21 PM
SMH report
smh surprised me when it exceeded 3% today and closed up 4%. Not one issue in sox is in the red, even mrvl was up nicely.
semis are the true leaders and todays action reflects, this brings more ammo for the bull case,
I suspect an smh runaway price or a pull back and reload. I will reload (long) if indicators permit. Todays upside was too much to re-chase.
on the weekly chart the williams indicator has broke to the up-side. that is a positive and should not be discounted.
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In reply to: Torqputty who wrote msg# 21675 Date:2/24/2006 4:21:59 PM
re; SMH h/s pattern
ok! one more day, for h/s pattern...
the upside number to break and hold is 37.31 and will void the H/S,
downside number to confirm H/S is 36.75 for break and 36.40 to clinch,
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In reply to: None Date:2/23/2006 8:58:15 PM
SMH h/s pattern (chart)
I need one more day, tomorrow really will tell on smh H/S pattern. And, does not matter to me which way it goes, tech up-side is limited, $NAA50
1, blue broken line is support,
2, red trendline is per chartpatterns.com
SMH h/s
SMH h/s
TRADING TOOLS,
1, RSI(5), enter/exit trade
2, STOCH, support for rsi
3, MACD, to hold current position
4, $NASI and Weekly Chart, for trend bias,
5, Symmetricals and Trendlines enter/exit trades
Q's
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76256138163
SMH
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p62010994103
Prophet
http://www.prophet.net/
Channels
http://www.askresearch.com/index.asp
Images
http://www.imageshack.us/
COT
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm
patterns
http://www.chartpatterns.com/
patterns
http://wongken96815.tripod.com/ChartPatternsEW.pdf
candles
http://www.litwick.com/glossary.html
candles
http://www.americanbulls.com/
Briefing
http://www.briefing.com/
CBOE
http://www.cboe.com/
S&P
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/HomePg&r=1&l=EN&b=10
Nocona,
if you leave, pls post where you will be.
AJ's board
sounds like a good place, plus plexxus is where i get some of my long plays
daaverage woodfish, board close?
if so, give me time to thread my SMH posts
$NASI chart
a tech downside move would take the nasi with it
BA chart example
right click in the middle of chart
click properties
copy n paste address (url)
remove the http://
add [ chart ] **** [ /chart ] without spaces
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ba%20&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89077701418
To post charts,
use the format: [ chart ]www.stockcharts.com/...[ /chart ] without the spaces in the brackets.
my smh chart example; [ chart ] img414.imageshack.us/img414/6741/smh8ig.png [ /chart ] ...without the spaces
in addition, your charts and links are showing up as; having to log in, so i do not know how that will work. so try free charts.
URBN (add long)
position is long, target $26, stop $22.50
SMH chart
back to this again
XLK chart
this is the cousin of QQQQ
RSI-5 VTO traders,
hope ya stay here but its all good if you move to new board. i'll be checking in on yas to see if you long on day1 or day2
lol and happy trading
Moving to the other board???
forget it!!! i'm not. there are lots of good technicians here,
SMH & SOX upper bollinger (charts)
both the semis are at upper bollingers and the bands are tightening (big move coming). my familiarity with bollingers is, price will now move to the opposite band, that move is supported by resistance (ref Burge S/R)
on the SMH chart i'm showing an MACD break-out similar to the S&P macd break-out posted on 3/16
a bullish move would be;
price breaks thru resistance and supported by breaking thru the upper band & daily macd
what will i do?
(1) wait for a retest of the bottom $34-$35
(2) go all in (long), if i get a full candle above resistance & upper bollinger, which ever is first
i am currently long (some)
SMH
SOX
SPX repost from #25550
SMH chart
say goodbye to a retest, if we get a white candle thru the upper daily bollingers,
SMH daily
SMH weekly
MSFT bullish chart
this should help the Q's stay afloat,
PS intc,
thanks, thats how i see intc, and if there is a semi's rally it will be with-out it.
INTC
my 2cents, intc looks like a spawning salmon, lays its eggs then dies,
intc needs a fundimental reason for it to rally, what would that be?
woodfish bullish channel?
is that channel bullish? bull flag?