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Be prepared for shocking earnings. USSIF should have revenues of just over $20M and expenses, including a $1.5M hedging loss of about $15M. I look for aftertax earnings of about $4M, not counting taxloss carryforward gains. That is the real sleeper in the equation. USSIF has $16M in taxloss carryforwards they could potentially take now. I am hoping they don't take it all so they can save some for 2011. If they take half now we could be looking at a $12M profit for quarter 4 or .04 per share. JMHO
USSIF has Deloitte as their auditors. This is one of the top auditing firms in the world. The problem is that USSIF takes a backseat to larger firms that must report earlier and have been with them for years. I like the idea of having an auditor of the quality of Deloitte. The problem is that if it causes your reports to come out a month late it isn't worth it. Do you want a company with a top auditor and a low stock price or do you want a company with a decent auditor and a high stock price? There is no question that they need more help in the accounting department. I would like to get rid of IR if they aren't going to do anything and spend that money on an additional accountant. USSIF has millions in cash pouring in, but doesn't seem motivated to do anything to improve the price of their stock.
I just retired 2 weeks ago and 100% of my money is invested in USSIF. I am the stock's biggest supporter. My concern is that USSIF is priced at 1/3 of it's value compared to it's peers such as GPL and EXK. I believe it will always be that way until some things are fixed. The biggest issue is getting listed on the Canadian TO exchange and the AMEX. Late reporting is one of the huge problems for USSIF. They don't want to switch exchanges because they would be required to report earlier like the whole rest of the world. I am not not nearly as upset at missing Mr. Parkers promise to report by April 20 as I am at his arrogant comment that "we will not be rushed". This report should have been out by March 23 like all other silver producers. The rinky dink exchange listings give USSIF an excuse to be very late with their reporting. They simply don't care about the stock price and want to withhold financials as long as possible. USSIF trades an average of $1M worth of stock in a day. EXK trades an average of $36M worth of stock in a day. What does that tell you? Nobody ever heard of USSIF because they are listed on rinky dink exchanges and hold back financials as long as possible. USSIF had a long standing board meeting set up for April 14 to discuss the figures before sending them to the auditors for approval. They never intended to try to get results out sooner. Shareholders are being deprived of a fair valuation for our stock because management doesn't care about promoting the company. I have nothing personal against management. They seem like very nice people. It's just that they are standing in the way of us getting a fair valye($5 per share by 2012) for our stock. We must join together and bombard them with EMAils and no votes if we expect any action to be taken. JMHO info@us-silver.com
Southpen - Thank you for agreeing with me that the company doesn't care about the price of the stock and it's shareholders. Whether USSIF is a pink sheet stock or not is irrelevant. Go to Yahoo and find USSIF. You must punch in USSIF.PK to get to it. People perceive USSIF as a pink sheet stock and will not buy it because of that. That is what matters. Why is USSIF listed on the venture exchange in Canada? The venture exchange is for exploration companies and USA is a producer. They list on the rinky dink exchanges because they can report late. Why does USSIF trade $1M worth of stock per day and EXK trades $36M worth of stock per day? It's because nobody ever heard of USSIF and never will until they trade on the regular Toronto exchange and the AMEX. The rinky dink exchange listings only increase the likelihood of a cheap takeout. Takeouts are based on market cap. USSIF has a $200M market cap and GPL has a $600M market cap because GPL is listed on the AMEX. It takes a higher market cap to discourage a cheap takeout. USSIF is very vulnerable right now to a cheap takeout because it is priced so low. So USSIF has a plan and it is working? That plan is to report late, list on rinky dink exchanges and do nothing to support the stock and shareholders should be pleased with that? People are selling now because they are fed up with the late reporting and the underperformance of the company. The only way to get anything done is for shareholders to vote no on board members and auditors at the upcoming meeting. Just like politicians, management will only respond if they are going to lose votes. You must tell them why you are voting no. info@us-silver.com
What's wrong with this picture? On an average day USSIF trades about $1M worth of stock. On an average day GPL trades about $12M worth of stock. On an average day EXK trades about $36M worth of stock. USSIF produces more silver than GPL and 2/3 of what EXK produces. USSIF has a market cap of about $200M. GPL has a market cap of almost $600M and EXK has a market cap of almost $1B. USSIF is grossly undervalued compared to it's peers. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what the problem is. Almost no one wants to buy a pink sheet stock. USSIF is grossly undervalued because they hedge, they are late reporting, they are not on the AMEX and they have too many shares. USSIF will never be fairly valued until they list on the AMEX. $1M traded per day? Duhhhhhhhh!
All the money is gone. In late September USSIF sold 26M shares and 13M warrants to raise $7M for the construction of the Coure mine. In November they wanted to guarantee another $5M in profits so they hedged 500,000 shares at $27.50. USSIF now stands to lose $8M from that hedge. That means that the twin decisions to raise money and guarantee profits means we have 26M new shares, 13M new warrants and it cost us $1M in lost cash to do it. USSIF is withholding positive earnings that would help the stock until the last possible moment, they will not list on the AMEX and they are diluting the shares. Vote NO at the annual meeting. EMail management at info@us-silver.com.
Vote no at the annual meeting. If you don't vote no at the annual meeting on board members and auditors you are endorsing USSIF management decisions. USSIF stands to lose $8M on it's hedge this year. If you don't vote no you are endorsing this decision. USA is now 33 days past all of it's peers in releasing it's earnings. The arrogant president says "we won't be rushed". If you don't vote no you are endorsing this attitude. USSIF is the only silver producer it's size that isn't listed on the AMEX or NYSE. That's because they don't want to be. If they list on the AMEX they will be required to report earlier. If you don't vote no you are endorsing this decision. USSIF has way too many shares outstanding. They issued a huge number of shares to raise money they didn't need. They are now wallowing in cash. Some of these shares and warrants need to be replaced. USSIF will go up in spite of management decisions. The question is how much? USSIF could be $1.50 next year or it could be $3-$5. If they stop all hedging, list on the AMEX, repurchase shares and speed up releasing information they have a shot at $5 next year with $50+ silver. I plan to vote a STRONG no to send a message to management. If something is done an opposing slate of board members could be run next year. Please EMail management with your concerns at info@us-silver.com.
How much is this silver stock worth? How much would this silver stock be worth on January 1, 2012? This silver company expects to produce 3.3M ounces of silver in 2012. With silver at $50 they should have revenues of $180M and a net profit after taxes of $70M or .70 per share in 2012. They are listed on the AMEX and they have 100M shares outstanding. They just opened their second mine and drilling has begun at their third mine. Reserves are increasing dramatically due to increased drilling. They have no debt and $30M in cash. Who is this silver company and what is their stock worth? The company is United States Silver(after a 1/3 reverse split and share repurchases) and the stock is worth $15.
How to fix the USSIF stock price. USSIF is grossly undervalued in relation to it's peers. USSIF has a market cap of just over $200M. Great Panther produces less silver than USSIF but has a market cap of $400M. Endeavour produces 50% more silver than USSIF but has a market cap of $1B or five times greater than USSIF. Whenever I recommend USSIF I get three negative responses. USSIF hedges, they are on the pink sheets and they have too many shares. All of these problems are easily fixable. The hedging problem can be eliminated by stopping the hedges. The financial prudence of hedging isn't the issue. Whenever you hedge you drive away hundreds of potential investors PERIOD. The pink sheet issue is easily fixable. USSIF needs to apply for AMEX listing right now. The AMEX listing process takes about six months. The stock must be over $2 to qualify for AMEX listing. If the stock isn't over $2 by then a reverse split could be used. If we wait until after the stock hits $2 it will be another six months before we can get a listing. The oversupply of stock is also easily fixable. USSIF will be issuing 55M new share over the next three years for options and warrants. We could offer to buy back these options and warrants based on current market prices. .35 warrants could be repurchased for .45. This is much less expensive than buying shares in the open market. USSIF has way more than enough cash to start this process now. USSIF should be priced at $2.50 right now based on it's peers. Late reporting is another problem that could be fixed with an AMEX listing. The AMEX requires earlier reporting. USSIF's peers do not hedge, they report on time, they are listed on the AMEX or NYSE and they do not have an oversupply of shares. USSIF will go up, but not to the level it deserves until these issues are addressed. I urge everyone to vote no on everything and EMail management at info@us-silver.com to urge them to address these issues.
I'm voting no on everything. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for June. I plan to vote no on all board members and the auditors. It is the only meaningful way individual shareholders can voice their opinions about the long delays in reporting earnings. All of USSIF's peers had their earnings out by March 23. We are running a full month behind everybody. Unless a significant amount of investors voice their disapproval the company's management will not care. I thought the president's EMail posted on one board saying we won't be rushed was absurd. Since when is expecting earnings to be out one month after everybody else's rushing you. This company's management believes that shareholders wishes mean nothing. They will issue earnings when they feel like it and thats that. At least I get to vote no soon and I can't wait.
USSIF now appears headed for revenues of $30M in quarter 2. 50% of all revenues are now being kept as cash flow. USSIF should have more than $50M in cash flow in 2011. 2011 revenues should be more than $100M. In 50 years of investing I have never seen an opportunity like this. IMHO you have 1 or 2 days left to buy USSIF for less than $1. Once it blows past $1 you will never have that opportunity again. JMHO
USSIF is currently taking in $1M in cash flow every six days. Cash flow for quarter 2 should be about $15M It now appears that USSIF will earn about $50M or .15 per share in 2011. That means that USSIF is selling for less than 5 times 2011 earnings. These staggering amounts of cash will enable USSIF to increase it's 2011 drilling budget and accelerate work on the new Coure mine and improvements to the Galena mine. Cash is no longer a factor for USSIF as they are wallowing in cash.
The impact of repricing. Repricing will have a major impact on the results for the next three quarters for USSIF. When USSIF makes a shipment a preliminary price is established. Two to three months later a final price is established. If USSIF ships 200,000 ounces of silver in December and the price is $28 at the time that is the price used to compute 4th quarter revenues. In March if silver is $35 then a repricing adjustment is made and USSIF actually gets $35 for that December shipment. That $1.4M adjustment is added to 1st quarter revenues. With silver constantly rising for 9 months now USSIF is constantly receiving upward repricing adjustments.; These repricing adjustments should more than offset the losses from the $27.50 hedge. USSIF used to freeze prices at time of shipment in exchange for 80% of the cash upfront. They don't need to do that now because they are not desparate for the cash like they were. I estimate that USSIF sold 600,000 ounces of silver at $28, 1.5M pounds of lead at $1.10 and 275,000 pounds of copper at $4.25 in quarter 4 for $19.6M in revenues. I expect actual revenues to be about $21-$22M because of repricing adjustments. If prices ever drop it will hurt USSIF because there would be downward repricing adjustments. For now, repricing is adding even more to the allready exploding revenues and cash flows.
It all comes down to 3 things: profits, profits, profits. Right now, traders and dealers can manipulate silver stocks because the magnitude of the profits hasn't become apparant yet. In about 2 weeks we will start getting some earnings reports from silver miners showing staggering 1st quarter results. These results will be weak compared to 2nd quarter results. Once the incredible magnitude of profits these companies are making are released it will be much harder for manipulators to bash these stocks down. It is easy to smash USSIF down when it is a company making $100,000 per quarter. How easy will it be when they are making $10M per quarter? Silver averaged $28 in quarter 4, $32 in quarter 1 and $42 so far for quarter 2. The profit reports coming will be mind boggling for all silver producers.
Thanks for the .773 shares. There goes my last dime and I am 100% in. Look for revenues of just over $20M and profits of $4M plus whatever they add for taxloss carry-forwards. The long wait is over. Here comes the earnings.
I don't think a $5-$10M profit is a dream. It is a FACT that USSIF has $16M in taxloss carry-forwards that it will be taking over the next twelve months. They must decide how much of that $16M to take now based on their expectations of profits for 2011. If they expect profits of $40M for 2011 then they should take $10M of those carry-forwards now. It is also a FACT that revenues will be much, much higher for quarter 4. 3rd quarter had silver sales of 440,000 ounces at $19. 4th quarter will have silver sales of 575,000-650,000 ounces at $28. The new auditors did the 2009 audit and made revisions to the 2008 audit. Last years results were very late because the new auditors were going over 2008 and 2009 results. Whatever writeoffs that were necessary should have been taken at that time. The new auditors signed off on both of those audits. It is always possible to get surprises in the mining business, but there is no indication of that happening now. If you expect big writeoffs that is your right to expect it. That doesn't mean it will happen. We shall find out soon.
The board meeting is over. The annual report should be out Friday or Monday. We allready know that USSIF produced 570,000 ounces of silver in quarter 4 @ $28. In quarter 3 USSIF produced 507,000 ounces of silver, but only sold 440,000 ounces. That extra 67,000 ounces were sold in quarter 4. I expect that USSIF sold 600,000-625,000 ounces of silver in quarter 4. I expect revenues(includes lead and copper) to be a little north of $20M for quarter 4. I expect profits to be between $5M-$10M depending on how much of their taxloss carry-forwards they decide to use. JMHO
Board of directors meeting Thursday. The board of directors is meeting tomorrow to go over the 2010 results. Look for earnings to be released sometime between Thursday night and Monday morning. JMHO
"Future income tax assets also result from unused loss carry-forwards and other deductions. The valuation of future income tax assets is reviewed at least annually and adjusted, if necessary, by use of a valuation allowance to reflect the estimated realizable amount. The determination of the ability of the company to utilize taxloss carry-forwards to offset future income tax payable requires management to exercise judgement and to make asumptions about the future performance of the company. Changes in economic conditions, METAL PRICES, and other factors could result in revisions to the estimates of the benefits to be realized or the timing of utilizing the losses." Page 19, 3rd quarter MDA. USSIF must determine how much of the remaining $16M in taxloss credits to use this quarter. However much they decide to take now will be added to 4th quarter profits. Last year they took $2M in tax credits when profits were much lower. The entire $16M should be used between now and yearend 2011. The only question is how much to take now and how much to take in quarter 4 of 2011. JMHO
EPS on USSIF at 10X earnings shyould be $1.30 based on .13 per share earnings in 2011.
3 days until earnings. USSIF has a board meeting scheduled for Thursday to approve financial results. Earnings should be released on Friday or Monday. Look for revenues to be just above $20M and after tax profits to be about $4M before the impact of hedging and taxloss carryforwards. USSIF will take a $1.5M hedging loss on the mark to market of it's 500,000 ounce hedge. Silver was $30.50 on December 31 which results in a 500,000 X $3 mark to market loss for quarter 4. USSIF will be taking a multi million dollar gain on taxloss carryforwards in this quarter. They have $16M in taxloss carryforwards to use. They must decide how much to use now based on expectations of 2011 profits. I am expecting USSIF to report somewhere between $5M and $10M in profits in quarter 4 depending on how much taxloss profits they decide to use.
Congratulations on your first million. Congratulations to United States Silver for making it's first million dollars of the second quarter today. USSIF is currently making $125,000 per day in profits.
It looks like earnings will be released on April 15. Someone posted an EMail they got from the company on yahoo stating that a board meeting is scheduled for April 14 to approve the financials and the earnings will be released just after that. Stand back! A bomb is about to go off in 8 days.
I would like to propose a new hedging stategy if the company hedges again. I would like to propose that they buy out of the money puts for 2012. For $1M they could buy a significant amount of $35 puts. This would give them protection against a silver collapse with a limited cost. We stand to lose $5M from this year's hedge. This was not an option before because they didn't have the cash to buy puts. Now with plenty of cash we could buy serious protection with a maximum loss of $1M for next year. I usually don't like hedging, but at these prices buying some puts might make sense. JMHO
9 days until earnings. Another day and another $125,000 in profits. USSIF is currently earning $1M in profits every 8 days. The manipulators can have their fun for about 9 more days, but their days are numbered. When this earnings report comes out showing an 80% increase in revenues and a 5,000-10,000% increase in profits the lid is going to blow off. JMHO
I disagree. Stocks go up because they make money. Stocks go way up because they make lots of money. Many will not buy until they see the money. All of the other silver stocks that "showed them the money" are going way up. Prospective new investors look at the last report and see a company with sharply7 lower production, lower and revenues and almost no profits. Once the report comes out they will see a company with 12% higher production, 80% higher revenue and a 5,000%-10,000% increase it profits. That changes everything. MM's can only hold the stock down is buying pressure is modest. How much can they hold it down if we get a 10M share volume day?
That is the standard EMail response they have sent out to numerous people over the last two weeks. The problem is that thousands of other companies have allready released 2010 results. Many of them are much smaller than USSIF. Slow release of results underscores your staus as a rinky dink pink sheet stock. USSIF needs to get with the program and join their peers such as Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, Fortuna and Great Panther as class acts. USSIF shareholders are being forced to sit and watch their stock stagnate while these other stocks skyrocket because we have not released our earnings. USSIF is late with its results because it chooses to be late. All other small silver companies have allready announced. The annual meeting is coming up in June. I for one plan to vote no on everything to send a message. USSIF needs to step up and join the rest of it's peers. JMHO
10 days until earnings? Many people have EMailed USSIF asking for an earlier release date of 2010 earnings. The company responds with an EMail stating that they are waiting for 3rd party verifications to come back. They are not required to release results until April 30. They are targeting mid-April for the earnings release. If you would like to EMail the company urging an early release you can reach them at info@us-silver.com. The more they hear from shareholders the more likely they are to step up the audit process. This stock is about to explode once earnings are released. Every day without earnings is another unneccasry day under $1. JMHO
A gigantic taxloss carryforward gain is coming in quarter 4 for USSIF. "Future income tax assets also result from unused loss carry-forwards and other deductions. The valuation of future income tax assets is reviewed at least annualy and adjusted, if necessary, by use of a valuation allowance to reflect the estimated realizable amount. The determination of the ability of the company to utilize tax-loss carryforwards to offset future income tax payable requires management to exercise judgement and to make assumptions about the future performance of the company. Changes in economic conditions, METALS PRICES, and other factors could result in revisions to the estimates of the benefits to be realized or the timing of utilizing the losses." Page 19 of 3rd quarter MDA- This means that USSIF will decide how much of it's $16M in taxloss carryforwards to take as a profit in quarter 4 based on expectations of 2011 profits. Last year they took $2M, but this year it should be much higher. IMHO USSIF will have $20M in 4th quarter revenues and $4M in profits before adding the taxloss carryforwards. Actual profit could be anywhere from $6M to $15M depending on how many taxlosses they decide to use. JMHO
United States Silver is now making $125,000 per day in profits. With silver at $38.50 USSIS is headed toward $27M in revenues for quarter 2 or $12M in profits after hedging losses. This is about $125,000 per day. So far in 4 days USSIF has racked up $500,000 in profits or 5 times as much as they made in the entire 3rd quarter. Very soon USSIF(USA) will report a 12% increase in production, an 80% increase in revenue and a 5,000%-10,000% increase in profits. JMHO
Shares outstanding? Does anyone know how many shares outstanding this company has? The 10% stock dividend will increase that figure by another 10%, but I was wondering how many shares are outstanding now?
Unbelievable earnings. Capstone Mining(CS.To) earned $12M or .15 per share in the first quarter and the stock is $1.40 U.S. They had $1.5M worth of lead and silver that didn't ship until December that wasn't included in first quarter results. Capstone expects production to more than double by the fourth quarter. Capstone expects to be producing 11M pounds of zinc and 1.3M ounces of silver by 2008 which represents $35M worth of revenues. Zinc, lead and silver account for 45% of Capstone's revenues. Capstone is not just a copper company. Capstone can be bo0ught in the U.S. using CSFFF.
Does anybody follow Quadra Mining(QUA.TO)? They earned .62 in the third quarter. They have been hurt because most of their copper was hedged at $1.60. Since copper dropped from $3.48 to $2.87 in the fourth quarter they should have a huge hedging gain in the fourth quarter. They hedged 25M pounds of copper in October at $3.35. I am looking for a hedging gain of about $30-$40M in the fourth quarter. They also have an extra 11M pounds of copper to sell in the fourth quarter that didn't get shipped in the third quarter. I am looking for earnings in the fourth quarter of $1.50-$2. The stock is $7.75 U.S.
News from Capstone Mining. I spoke to Capstone Mining IR yesterday and here's whats going on with them. They sold all of the concentrate that was in inventory on October 31 during November. This will be included in first quarter profits that should be released in mid-January. They expect to earn between .08-.12 for the first quarter. They are currently looking at several acquistion possibilities. Capstone spun off its silver operations earlier in the year, but they still own stock in the silver company. New drilling results are expected out soon and are expected to show increased reserves. The work needed to double production by the end of 2007 is running ahead of schedule. Production should double by the middle of 2007. This company could be earning .25 per share by the last half of 2007. The stock is $1.65 U.S. For more information call Chris Tomanik at 604 684-8894.
Lionore announcement is staggering. At the precious metals conference in Toronto a few minutes ago Lionore confirmed that they expect to produce 12,500 tonnes of nickel in the fourth quarter compared to 7,800 tonnes in the third quarter. They confirmed that fourth quarter earnings will top the .68 of the third quarter and that they now have over $300M in cash on hand. 12,500 tonnes would translate to nearly 28M pounds of nickel which would translate at $15 per pound to $420M in revenues. If you add $50M for repricing gains and $25M for gold Lionore could have nearly $500M in revenues this quarter. I expect earnings of .90 this quarter. Lionore is holding a CC tomorrow to announce that they expect production of just under 45,000 ounces in 2007 compared to 34,100 ounces in 2006. They expect production of 60,000 ounces in 2008 and 90,000 by 2011. BTW, the Capstone production figures in that release were for moew than one month. A little farthur down they gave the actual numbers for October which are in line with their projections except that zinc is running higher than expected.
Capstone(CS.TO) could earn $100M in 2007 is metals prices stay at these levels. IMHO they are currently making $4M per month in profits. They expect to double their production by the end of 2007. With double the production and these prices profits should be near $100M in 2008. That would be about $1.25 in earnings. This stock is selling for about $1.62 U.S. The first earnings report since production began is due out in mid-January.
Thanks Bobwins. Is anybody else in Capstone Mining(CS.TO)? They began producing copper, zinc, lead and silver in September. So far they have produced $16M worth of concentrates. They plan to double their production by the end of 2007. They have 80M shares outstanding. They have $27M in cash and short term investments, $60M in net worth and NO DEBT. The stock is $1.67 U.S. Their quarter ends on November 30 so they should report earnings in mid-January. I am expecting $10M or .12 a share if the concentrate in inventory on October 31 got shipped in November as expected. They are projecting $31 in net cash flow for 2007 with copper at $3, zinc at $1.45, lead at .60 and silver at $11. Check out the slide show on the Capstone website. You can buy this stock through Ameritrade using CSFFF.
I'm sure I will be called a basher again, but I'll post my thoughts anyway. I'm looking for a reason to get back into NMKT, but each new announcement keeps turning me away. It looks like todays announcement tells us that there will be no stock dividends for at least another year. Todays announcement says that NMKT cannot pay a stock divedend in NMKT Latin America for at least a year and it says they can't pay a dividend in NMKT China until they achieve certain "goals". What are these goals and what kind of timetable are we talking about. For those that have waited for a stock dividend for two years now it looks like there will be a lot more waiting. As far as the Beacon Equity Research report, if you go to their website you will see that they generally charge for these "recommendations". How much did NMKT pay for this recommendation is a question I would like answered. I know I'm a basher because I want all of the facts and I want to know whats going on before I get back in.
Lionore - Repricing - Lionore does not price the nickel it ships from its Tati mine in Africa until four to nine months after shipment. LIM will reprice nickel in the fourth quarter that was shipped in the first and second quarter when nickel was $7-$9. That should result in a very big repricing gain in the fourth quarter. Tati production is expected to rise from 3,400 tonnes in the third quarter to 5,500 tonnes in the fourth quarter. Total production of nickel for LIM is forecast to rise from 7,800 tonnes to 12,500 tonnes. LIM also produces gold, copper, platinum, palladium and other metals. These other metals contributed $59M or 20% of revenues in the third quarter.
Lionore has a slide presentation from a recent presentation on its website that shows yearly projections. If you listen to the last CC they seem very confident that they will produce about 12,500 tonnes of nickel in the fourth quarter compared to 7,800 tonnes in the third quarter. I know they have missed production estimates in the past. I am using 11,000 tonnes of production in my estimates which would produce about $1 per share in earnings with nickel at $15.50. 25M pounds of nickel at $12 per pound profit(includes $35M in repricing gains) would produce $300M in pretax or $225M in aftertax profits. Listen to the last CC and see if you think they seemed confident about production in the fourth quarter with the quarter half over. Let me know what you think.