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<<<Price is alive and can bust through walls we would never imagine.
I don't know whether this price will bust through or not, but there is nothing in your charts that ensures a major decline in September or October 2009>>>>
If anything in any chart or opinion ENSURED a result...everyone would be right 100% of the time.
Nothing is ENSURED.
Unless you're GS.
Ted...feel free to position yourself as you wish...it is your $$$. I know my history of trading...and I know (somewhat) your history. I have consistently made money trading, but have been wrong through the summer....it happens.
This is not me against you...I couldn't give a rat's ass how you position yourself.
If you are the guru you believe yourself to be...post your trades.
I have 2000 shares FAZ (1000 @ $28.35 and 1000 @ $23.08)
I lost $4800 prior to that on SKF position.
My cost basis is $25.75 for 2000 FAZ
As of today's close FAZ $27.20 I am up $2900 on FAZ.
Down $1900 total since May.
Post your position and you'll get credit.
I must say...your symmetry chart has been spot on...congrats.
Another JPM...ain't breakin' through this ceiling
JPM ready for a haircut...
Yes...9/24
They are all 26 days...actual lows may happen a day or 2 early or late.
Blasher...26 day
I have the next low in 14-15 trading days or thereabout.
Today's trade confirmed a break in the trend line and projects on the daily to a minimum 950
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72168094444
Although I think the selling will trigger a sell on the weekly as well...target...minimum 870
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96864781684
This is what our "strong market" has become.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/158286-analyzing-strange-volume-on-the-nyse?sou
So when GS posts great earnings as a result of "trading revenues" in high frequency trading, CNBC will be right there to exclaim..."Better than expected!"
What a scam...there is nothing "real" about trading volumes reported. It's become a shell game.
Check this out
http://seekingalpha.com/article/158925-sobering-stat-arms-index-indicates-market-is-at-peak-not-bottom?source=article_lb_articles
No improvement whatsoever.
I live on the Jersey Shore and business, traffic, and prospects are deteriorating.
I anticipate reality will start to slap people in the face over the next year as to what has happened.
As of now, they think everything will be "back to normal" any minute, as they get their cues from CNBC.
Early 90's recession...internet bailed us out.
2000 recession...housing bubble and home equity loans reinflated the economy.
Now consumers are not buying stocks...are not buying property...are in debt over their heads...are losing jobs...those with jobs are facing declining wages...credit is contracting.
UGLY
They've created the conditions for a crash. Shorts will not hold over night and longs continue to lever up and dive in.
Consumers do not have the capacity to run a debt-fueled recovery this time around. The Fed has exhausted all asset classes with which they could blow bubbles to reinflate.
Consumer credit contracting, loan standards tightening, debt levels high, job losses mounting.
The consumer CANNOT sustain the recovery. All of the excesses must be allowed to be wrung out of the system for a fresh start...
The moral hazard has been CREATED by the FED. Their actions have encouraged reckless risk-taking by Wall Street at the expense of Main Street.
Risk taking should be encouraged....absolutely!
but with consequences...not a FED bail-out for those who went out as far as possible on the risk spectrum and were rewarded for their recklessness.
I will be quick to exit on a MAJOR spike higher.
Amusing that the bail-out has done zero except encourage the rampant, bubble blowing speculators to double-down on the moral hazard created by the Fed.
Anger and revolt is brewing.
This will not be a pretty end.
Have doubled my FAZ position...
Never been more confident in a trade.
Should be sailing in the Bahamas come Spring 2010....
Can't ask for a better opportunity in trading.
These are the opportunities that define a lifetime's effort in determining what is real, and what is imagined.
Rising Wedge
Time to resume the downtrend>
Put/Call is about the most extreme I've ever seen...Friday registered a .39.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43546093361
The similarity is remarkable...the main point is that major bear market bottoms occur between 2.5 and 3 years.
The wiring of our brains has not changed, human thinking is enormously influenced by what has happened most recently...I expect a repeat...to wring out all the wish, hope, speculate, excesses.
Yes......
Nearly identical in bounce magnitude and duration.
New lows by Spring 2010.>
Half spans and full spans ARE MA's (just offset...he explains why in book)and are his method of projecting the duration and magnitude of the move.
Page 97...
MA's are integral to his cyclical analysis.
They keep trying to portray this as a typical economic cycle...it is not.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Deficit.PNG
For SPX daily I use a version of Hurst's Price Magic TA for price projection.
I have the MA at 26 for the average cyclical low so 13 is the half span...(read Profit Magic)
Once the 13 tops and turns down (MACD crosses) you can predict where you estimate it will cross the 26. In this case it is 985 or 30 points from the high. Minimum target should be at least as much (30 points)from the intersection to the bottom (although it frequently runs much further).
Don't know if I explained it well, but I know what I'm looking at. Hope it helps.
<<<Regarding the stochastics, they do not predict the size of the drop. Again, I along with many are looking for a drop into mid-September. This drop *could* work off all the overbought signals you're looking at without causing the SPX to drop below the 200-day ma, in my opinion.>>>
If you've read Hurst's Price Magic...the cross (which can be projected when MACD crosses down) projects to a "minimum" decline to 955 (on the daily).
High 1015-projected cross at 985=30
Minimum decline should project 30 points lower than intersection of MA's=955
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p73739699206
If that happens it would most likely trigger a higher magnitude downside target on the weekly (extremely overbought)...hasn't happened as of yet.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96864781684
<<<I see no evidence in the new low charts, the $NYAD, or anywhere else that would tell me the bottom is falling out of the market. It might, but based on technical analysis, I don't see it.>>>
Technical analysis includes sentiment indicators which you are discounting completely.
21 day Equity Put/Call ratio at low for the year
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
Investors Intelligence went to extremes on this rally
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
Daily Stochs and MACD have crossed down
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72168094444
Weekly Stochs and MACD at extremes and Stochs crossing
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96864781684
Probably gap it down again tomorrow....bears expecting a close of the gap down to initiate positions....but they won't get it. Those "in control" will take it down quickly with no chance to get a comfortable short entry.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40515799
All the sentiment factors back an intermediate top...weekly stochs in Dow and S&P crossing
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42247480172
Daily MACD has topped and turned down
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72168094444
Not this time
Correction should be quick and VIOLENT IMO...they do not want to give shorts a window to get back in...
Time for the correction
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42247480172
Short-interest declined by the most since the "ban on shorts" was implemented in September
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/08/stock-market-short-sellers-rushed-to-close-out-their-bearish-bets-in-late-july-as-share-prices-surged-new-data-show--that.html
Had a steadily rising Put/Call ratio when the Head/Shoulders failed to break to the downside early July...
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
Investor's Intelligence Bearish
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
Short positions at lows for the year...
Bears will have their day.
That's my business...this is my hobby...
and golfin', of course.
OT: Bill Gross Conclusions
Investment conclusions? A 3% nominal GDP “new normal” means lower profit growth, permanently higher unemployment, capped consumer spending growth rates and an increasing involvement of the government sector, which substantially changes the character of the American capitalistic model. High risk bonds, commercial real estate, and even lower quality municipal bonds may suffer more than cyclical defaults if not government supported. Stock P/Es will rest at lower historical norms, and higher stock prices will ultimately depend on tangible earnings growth in the form of increased dividends, not green shoots hope. An investor should remember that a journey to 3% nominal GDP means default/haircuts for assets on the upper end of the risk spectrum, as well as extremely low yielding returns for government and government-guaranteed assets at the bottom end. There is no investment potion for this new environment other than steady income-producing bond and equity investments in companies with strong balance sheets and high dividend yields, as well as selectively chosen emerging market commitments where nominal GDP growth prospects are tilted upward as opposed to gravitating to new lower norms. Madame Rue has met her match.
William H. Gross
Bill agrees...structural changes have transformed the investment landscape. P/E multiples should reflect that structural change and contract accordingly.
I guess Lehman didn't have enough exposure
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/14113089/c_14113574?f=home_todayinfinance
296 TRILLION in notional exposure. Unreal....any event outside of statistical probability could destroy the entire Ponzi scheme they've created.
I guess this is how they plan to make up for the lost revenue
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43d18c68-851d-11de-9a64-00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058
Agreed...I am more confident now than last September that there is NO WAY OUT of the financial situation we are in. They bought some time, to try to propagandize an "imminent recovery" and end of the recession...and yes, they will get a positive GDP number as inventories are rebuilt...but the structural problems that have been exposed leave me as confident as ever that this is a Bear Market Rally!
Bull markets base and back and fill...they don't go parabolic.
Especially after the most catastrophic financial destruction since, or possibly including, the Great Depression.
Check out JPM...trading at 2007 levels when the structural changes in finance will need YEARS to repair itself...at housing bubble and reckless credit highs. I'll be buying JPM puts this week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40544931328
OT: And the baby-boomers, who were responsible for the bulk of irresponsible consumption beyond their means, are reaching retirement, and will not consume as they had in the past decade.
There are structural changes that have taken place that will prove impossible to overcome in the next few years.
>>>Boomers move out of equities as portfolios move away from risk in retirement
>>>Tightening in consumer credit
>>>Tightening in lending requirements....yes, down-payments are required now, imagine that! This will continue to pressure prices as the majority of buyers do not have a 20% chunk to put down...and no STATED INCOME loans!
>>>Velocity and volume of loan transactions will NEVER get back to what existed in the housing bubble...fat transaction fees for banks on every cash-out refi and short-term "flips"
>>>Continued foreclosure pressure through 2012 as Alt-A and option-ARM's reset (77% of option-ARM's are underwater...resetting will double the monthly payment in most cases, and refinacing will be based on the value of the home, so the home-"owner" will have to make up the equity deficiency he/she has (remember, most option-ARM borrowers chose the neg-amortization option), plus come up with 20% down-payment in order to refinance...OR JUST HAND THE KEYS TO THE LENDER!)
>>>Home equity lines contracting or being eliminated by the lender
>>>Prices will rise on consumer goods as commodity prices reflect the increase in money printing
Time for a little reality-check for the "new bull-marketers"
You can't be right EVERY time! It's MY turn.