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"If and when TL raises cash, and tax season is over, the puts expire and the EMA is submitted, then the tide will change. Or combinations thereof." Kind of reminds me of NFL football playoff possibilities: If the Dolphins win their last two games AND if the Patriots lose their last two games AND if Buffalo loses one game and ties the other, THEN the Dolphins make the playoffs. LOL
No, we should not pack it in. We should all bombard ADXS with emails and phone calls and let them know how unhappy we investors (the ones who pay their salaries) are. And let them know we're not unhappy just because the sp is down. We're all big boys and we've all lost money before in stocks. But enough is enough. We're unhappy because it's relentlessly down week over week, month over month, year over year. And it's down big. AND we're unhappy with management because we don't see any efforts being made by management to stop it. ADXS never directly talks about this, the falling sp. They need to address this issue with their investors and at least make it known to their investors that this IS a problem. AND they need to let us know their plan, or at least that they HAVE a plan. They should know their investors' frustrations and anger. So far, the hiring of Lombardo has not helped our stock one bit.
Iggy, if shorts covering, then the sp should move up, not down.
"expect to be sitting at $10-$20 in 3 - 4 months". Ok, let's mark this post and come back in 4 months and see if this prediction turned out to be true.
Is this another "buying opportunity"? How many times have we heard that? I thought $8 was a good opportunity. Then I thought $6 was an unbelievable opportunity. Then $4 looked ridiculous. But, anyone who bought at those levels lost money. "Buying opportunity" for this stock only means temporary low and throwing good money after bad. Because we always manage to find a new low later on.
Down and down she goes. Where she stops, nobody knows.
Testing 52 week lows, again. Yesterday we had our lowest closing price in 3 years. Last time ADXS closed at $2.93 or below was November 2014. I've held thru stock declines before, but nothing like this before. Seems there is no end.
Yes gaji. That's my thinking too.
Boy you buyout people are grasping at straws. Is there some well-known fact that silence is a prelude to buyouts? You know how many times I've heard that here. Wishful thinking. He1i, I'd love to see a buyout too for $20 or $30 or even $10. But I just don't see any evidence of it happening. But, something has to give in the next 6 or 7 months. Obviously can't dilute. I'm sure big Tony has a plan. He's just shy to tell us investors what it is.
IMO, there won't be a buyout. I've been saying that since summer. Only reason there is buyout talk is because it gives hope to people who are stuck with piece of you know what stock.
Get it done Tony. $200 plus.
So.....did ADXS develop a dry, room temperature product or not? The article gbrown posted clearly indicated they did, years ago. So unless that article was inaccurate and ADXS has no room temp product, what's the problem with PETX? There's a piece of the puzzle missing.
Sorry to hear that attilahunt. You've lost more than me. My peak was $480,000 few years ago when ADXS peaked at $30. So down over $400,000 from there. And I'm not a rich guy. That's over half of my total net worth.
As long as we're confessing how much we bought in for, I bought in for $170,000 and now have under $60,000. And that's my life's savings. So maybe can understand why I have complaints from time to time. I'm like you, though I don't believe any buyout will happen, I'm in this thing til I at least get my money back or busted.
Bourbon, thanks for the article. Interesting read. The impression I take away from this article is that all the rage seems to be about Car-T. That may explain in part why ADXS is having so much trouble. They're (big pharma and investors) all chasing after the latest craze, Car-T, and that's where they're putting their money.
And we continue to sink into the bottomless pit. So happy Lombardo has a plan.
Well if Advaxis knows where the money is coming from, apparently big investors don't know because none of them seem to be buying, even way down here at $3.
We can see from today's stock market action, with ADXS again down and testing its 52 week low, again, that those conferences over the past few weeks did nothing to help give this stock support. Again shows that conferences are meaningless. Investors want to see results. And not just small players like us, but the big investors too. And I suspect BP wants to see results too before they show any interest. The nightmare continues with no apparent end.
No one seems to know how much ADXS will charge per treatment (I'm talking about the drug specifically). $10K? $20K? $50K? I'm not talking TOTAL medical cost (which includes hospitals, doctors, assistants, care takers, etc), I' talking for the drug alone. The article that Trading Cyclist linked to was interesting. It was talking about Canada but I think it can be applied here in the USA too. Most of the expenses are from hospitals and care-takers. Hospitals are outragius. I had rotator cuff surgery a few months ago and the doctor alone charged $25K!! Just the doctor. Of course insurance only paid a few thousand, but the point is, these people and facilities charge up the keister. So most of this supposed $100K price for treatment per patient won't be for the drug alone. I suspect ADXS would receive WELL less than half of this treatment cost. But here's what I find funny. These hospitals and doctors will be making so much money while it's actually the drug that's saving their lives, not the doctors. And another funny thing, there was that recent push (mostly from Hillary and the Dems) about drug costs being too high and how there should be regulations of companies for charging too much. But as I explained, the drug companies, like ADXS, are REALLY the ones saving people with their drugs. The real peoblem is the hospitals which are way over-priced.
No, like you said, you can't assume $100K per person worldwide because many of these cases will be in poor countries, and most of these people will not seek treatment, or they will seek alternative cheaper treatment which of course wouldn't work so well. Point is it is difficult to get a reliable count outside of USA (except for Europe and developed countries in Asia). Many people in these poor countries simply won't have the money. But here in the USA, most people will seek treatment. And the number is correct, 12,200 new cases each year. Of course not all these people would use ADXS's drugs. A certain number of them will use other drugs because after all there is competition and not all doctors will recommend ADXS drugs. So can't expect ALL 12,200 cases to go to ADXS. But still, let's say half do. At $100,000 per case that's $610M revenue. (Of course ADXS wouldn't get all that revenue. A good deal of the cost will go to the medical facilities, doctors, various assistants, etc.) In fact, most of it will go there. I don't know that ADXS has given any estimated prices for their drugs. It could be around $20K per patient for the drug alone. That's a WAG. I had a coworker 20 years ago whose wife died from cancer. The total treatment cost then was $100K. So i have to guess 20 years later the cost will be much higher. And when you count Europe and developed Asia, there will be a lot more revenue. AND, we're only talking cervical cancer. ADXS drugs will help other cancer types too which will bring in much more revenue.
James, as the most trusted and respected poster here, may I pick your brain about the previously failed PD1 patients included in our trials. Do you happen to know those specific patients (ones who previously failed PD1) what their percentage/numbers were who survived ADXS trials? You make a good point that ADXS may be good for these people. I am just wondering if the trial data show their group benefited as much as others. TIA
Don't take it personally Blue. FBG is only giving his opinion, as so are you. But I must comment on your idea that the science will overcome company incompentency. History has shown that companies with good products do go out of busoness because of bad management. Nothing wrong with believing in your investment, but we should always remember there is risk and it might not turn out like we all hope.
Blue, My sense is that you`re completely wrong on the value of Adxs and fbg is right. Even a broken record is more interesting than people's constant talk of a buyout which, IMO, won't happen. And if one would happen, a 10-fold increase is extremely optimistic. Better to keep expectations in the realm of reality (which $10-20 would be the very high end IMO) and hope Santa gives us more than we expect.
I have the "guts". I just don't have the money. LOL. Seems today we are again testing 52 week closing low. But I've got to believe this is a great place/price to invest. $3 seems like an amazing price. I think investors are waiting for a bottom. They want an established and tested low first. And when we form a bottom this thing will move back up. And if we get any news such as partnership or great trial results, it could shoot up fast.
mpreorder, I don't think Tony said he's ruling out issuing more shares, did he? He just said there were discussions for partners. They very easily might do what they've done before, get a partner and issue "free" shares to that partner, which is of course a dilution.
I wouldn't say losing 2% is "slammed down". I'm happy we held most of yesterday's gains. But still uncertain we have hit a bottom. Need to find some support. I think the news out of this weeks conference will help stabilize sp. Fingers crossed.
Market cap down to $119M...
And considering ADXS has something like $85 million in cash, that means we're really only worth $34 million.
Exactlt right ubmmg. I've been saying that all along. Doesn't matter how good your product is, if you can't get it to market and you have bad management, then you're going to fail. But you know what the sad thing is? The ones who will really fail are us investors. It's only us investors who have risked our own money who will not get a piece of the pie. Management doesn't fail and the employees of the company don't fail because, like you said, when the company runs out of cash, another big company will just buy them out and they'll all keep their jobs. What's sad is that we investors (correctly) believed in the science and we trusted management and we gave them our own money to build their company up, and they let us down.
Interesting thought Oakrock. When ADXS made deals with these big investment firms and received lots of cash it seemed a good thing at the time. It showed big companies were interested by wanting to own our stock. ADXS was even willing to dilute (issue new shares to the companies). At the time I'm sure these companies thought they had a good deal (what was it, $4 and $7.50?) and the stock continued up. Other big guys bought some too. But no one thought about the flip side of the coin. These companies owning so much stock made us vulnerable. If/when they lost faith in ADXS they could always sell. And with them owning so many shares, their selling is wiping out this stock and severely damaging the company. What's the answer> I don't know. To me I guess the best thing is for some breaking good news on trial results that restore faith in our product. Couldn't hurt, but probably not likely.
Last week I had hope we had hit the bottom and were going back up. But seems nothing can stop this fall. You would think that if ADXS was worth something that someone would offer up a buyout bid or try to make a hostile takeover. I mean for BMY or a big company like that, offering up $500 million for the whole company would be nothing for them. Is ADXS management even considering hiring an investment banker? Shouldn't us shareowners have a right to know what management is doing/planning? What's their stinking plan? Are they even looking at what to do when the cash runs out? Because dilution at these stock prices is impossible. At this rate ADXS market value could very well be around $100 million next year and when they're eating thru $10 a month it's impossible to raise enough cash to keep going, not without diluting investors by 50%. WHAT'S YOUR PLAN ADXS?
What is it with this schizophrenic stock? Up 7% then down 3-4% the next day. Which way is this thing moving? I thought our move up on Friday was confirmation of a bottom, but today not behaving that way.
Tell me TC, what is it that you disagree with about the idea of not waiting til the very end to acquire more cash? What abuhafsa says makes sence, companies don't wait til they run out of cash before they acquire more. Look at our company, ADXS for example. From what I remember, ADXS acuired more cash when they still had about a year's worth of cash remaining. So no, ADXS won't wait til Oct next year to acquire mire cash. They just won't. IMO, they will have it by the Spring or early summer at latest.
Great post Hornet. Obviously institutions have been net sellers; and them putting so many shares on the market have overwhelmed buyers and thus the drop in sp. Supply and demand, not manipulation, is moving this stock. Probably the only ones buying this stock have been small potatoes guys like us and there just aren't enough of us to keep up.
And you're exactly right that the company management needs some sense of urgency, but unfortunately they act as though they are totally unaware that this company is in danger, and will soon be strangled by lack of cash. I hope to god they aren't thinking they're just gonna dilute and that will solve their problems. This company will never hold up on the backs of small time investors like us. They need to convince these big-time players that this company is for real. Get on the ball Tony. This company, and its investors, and potential future cancer patients depend on you.
100% spot on raja. I've been saying all along, it's not about manipulation, it's about supply and demand. People are selling, and that's a fact as we see by Fidelity. Question is, why are they selling? What do they know? And that said, it doesn't necessarily mean there won't be buying in the future. Fingers crossed.
Speaking of the PR, said we would get "updated" results at the conference. Does that literally mean we will get some additional trial results we have not seen before? Or does it mean we will get a rehash. Last time I saw something that said we'd get trial results we just got a rehash.
You're both entitled to your opinions, of course. And I'll side with mypeke. Speaking skills are very important for CEOs to have. How can anyone refute that? And when giving presentations, again, speaking skills are important. Closed door discussions may be different because it's more casual than presentations. But if a CEO doesn't have good speaking skills, he should be able to get someone else to give the presentation. A company always wants to present the best image possible.
Why do you guys keep talking about a buyout? There was nothing in this article that even hinted at a buyout. In fact, he said that they would be in New Jersey for a long time. My impression is that they aren't even considering a buyout. No mention of any companies interested in buying them. No rumors either. IMO it's more likely they make a partnership with someone, and probably dilute the stock at the same time by issuing them shares. Don't want them to dilute, but that seems to be their historical pattern.
Not sure why this board keeps hammering Dan. He's gone. Besides, ADXS has fallen 50% since Dan's departure, and Lombardo hasn't exactly come to the heroic rescue.
"Mgt includes the BOD. They failed to rein in DOC's RSU grabs."
Irrelevant. Nobody cares much except for the people here. Zero effect on the pps. -----So a CEO's unconventional and suspicious actions have no affect on sp? I'm pretty sure investors notice this sort of thing.
"Failed to get substantial deals done."
Old news. That is why DOC was fired, because he wanted to retain licensing rights. They are looking to monetize now. ------Old news? We're only talking 4 months. AND, notice that the sp has fallen over 50% in those 4 months. No question this was a least part of the reason for the fall.
"Failed to find something to make in a factory before building it."
You got me there. Although it does add value, it was premature. But not overly important, and certainly not a factor in the pps. -----Building a useless facility is not a factor in sp? Doing things that add no value to your company, and wastes money, has an affect on sp because investors question your company's strategies. You see it all the time with other companies. All the time.
"Failed to conduct proper investor relations and maintain a quality shareholder base instead of recruiting crooks."
You were crowing about Adage, T-Rowe, Broadfin, etc. So was everyone else. Hedge funds are shady. Can't blame management for their actions. They got the company funded and put it on the map. ----Wait a minute, aren't you the one who claims manipulation? And now you're siding with Adage etc?
"Failure to get doggie vax approved. Failure to get accelerated approval on ANYTHING despite great results."
Right, it's management's incompetence that has prevented approval. ADXS has zero control over the doggie vax. As for the human vaccines, sure, the FDA regulations and ridiculously slow processes are irrelevant. Good management could have had all of the indications approved by last year. lol. Please . . . ----Good management knows how to submit paperwork on time. Good management doesn't keep pushing the timeline back on things. Good management doesn't reward its employeed with options for doing nothing. And in today's world good management tends to its investors, because without investors this company is nothing. Can you name ONE thing Lombardo has done since becoming "interim" CEO?
Good question Barrel. I'm sure the board didn't just give Lombardo free share (ie free money) for nothing. Either it's a reward for something he's already done (which is as far as we know, nothing) or something he is expected to do. I remember once at my company a new assistant manager was hired (2nd in command over the whole facility) and the top manager gave him a big award money in an attempt to buy his loyalty. He essentially was paying him to ensure future loyalty.