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Some investors have a strict diversification discipline, and refuse to let any stock -- let alone a pink sheet stock touting a Niger / China $200 million deal -- constitute more than a certain percentage of their investment portfolio. If you took a sizeable position at $.015, it is now a much bigger % of your total holdings than it was when you bought it.
There is never anything wrong with taking profits. Some investors have had rough experiences with "life changing," "can't miss", "to da moon" stocks. Of course, we all know that AMMX is different. . . .
AJ:
I bought a bunch at $.015 per share, but I also bought a bunch at $.04 per share when the signed Niger MOA was announced. As pink sheet companies go, this one is extraordinary. But there is always risk, and even a $.04 share price assumes that there will continue to be monthly announcements of new/renewed contracts similar to what we have seen so far this year.
Of course, if any of the really big deals hits, we will leave $.04 in the dust. Limited downside, IMO, and huge upside.
Good luck.
mich
Good idea. Please post what you learn.
It depends upon what you mean by dilution. The Company makes no secret of the fact that executives, investor relations, etc. are being paid in whole or in part with shares. And at $.045 per share, it takes a lot of stock to pay someone $100,000.
Frankly, I hope this will stop as cash flow improves. It is way too easy to use shares as currency when cash is tight, but if a Company treats shares of its stock as if they were coupons at the grocery store, the market will do likewise. I do believe that there will be no capital raises using stock -- no PIPEs, etc. I also have great confidence in Hamre to do the right things to protect and enhance shareholder value.
I do. It seems to me that downside is very limited from here. I should add that I was greatly relieved by the financials this quarter and pleased with them.
I think the greatest thing about this company is its transparency and credibility. Terrific communication with shareholders, and the Company does not overpromise. It is enough to make me think that the Niger/China deal may actually happen! Now, if those that seem confident of 10% margins on $200 million in truck sales can also be believed . . . To my knowledge, the Company has not given any indication of what it is to receive if the deal comes together. Whatever it is, it will be huge for this company.
Unless my math is way off -- frequently the case -- with $1 million in net income for 2014, and 660 million outstanding shares, a PPS of $.045 implies a 30 PE ratio. At the same time by paying everyone in shares, the Company will be at 750 million outstanding before we know it. And, while year over year comparisons are impressive, revenues and net income for this quarter were about the same as last quarter.
Personally, I believe the Company when it says that it anticipates increasing revenues and net income going forward, and I am optimistic that the Company will have an outstanding year. I am very long the stock, and I agree completely that there is a lot to like here.
However, all things considered, I understand why today's numbers did not propel us to the next level, and it seems to me that the current PPS is about right.
I think these numbers were already built into the current price of the stock -- nothing unexpected here in either a positive or negative sense. Net income needs to improve at the same pace as revenues have improved, in order for the stock to attract a whole lot more money. With 660,000,000 shares outstanding, quarterly earnings of $200,000 will not get the job done.
Obviously if predictions of $20 million in revenue from the Niger/China deal are accurate, most of that money would drop to the bottom line and be transformative. But until that happens, or news is released suggesting it is likely to happen any time soon, I would not be surprised to see the stock languish at or about this level for a period of time.
Apparently there were things that needed to be checked with Lee, and as we know, he is out of the country, making communication difficult.
Just spoke to Marty and she anticipates financials first thing tomorrow morning -- at or about the time when the market opens.
Same here. According to Marty, will definitely be out on time, by May 15th.
Thanks for posting. Particularly like this:
"We have not reported our first quarter for 2014 but I can assure you that we will be reporting continued revenue growth and increased profitability."
China economy -- inflation:
News this morning:
"China's inflation slowed to an 18-month low of 1.8% on year in April from 2.4% in March and came in below consensus of 2%. Factory-gate prices (PPI) dropped for the 26th consecutive month with a decline of 2%. With other data indicating that China's economy is slowing down, economists attributed the fall in CPI to a weakness in demand. Today's data has increased expectations that the government will further ease monetary and fiscal policy."
The numbers for net income in this prior message contain an error for Q4. I had Marty walk me through the numbers today, and things are better than I have indicated. Actual net income numbers for 2013 were
Q1: (119,424)
Q2: 272,218
Q3: 113,000
Q4: 219,000
Sorry about the misinformation. Bad math, senior moment, etc.
Schwab posted this as well.
According to recent email from IR (Marty), the margins on the China deal have not been determined:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=101624989&txt2find=margins
I have not seen anything to indicate what the Company will receive on this deal. Is it your belief that AMMX will get 10% of $200 million or $20 million?
I must have missed something. When is shareholder letter going to be issued?
How do we know AMMX will have a war chest if/after the Niger deal closes? I still have not seen anything from the Company that gives any sense of what the Company's revenue from this deal will be.
Or maybe as simple as "buy on the rumor, sell on the news." Maybe a lot of people that wanted to sell were waiting for the MOA signing.
Personally, I bought a ton when the signing of the MOA was announced. My big concern now is that while Q1 revenues will probably be good, net income has been declining over the last 2 quarters. Would love to see decent earnings, and I think it is a train wreck if the company has a Q1 loss. Some people may want to get out before earnings are announced.
What is your understanding of the role AMMX is playing in the China/Niger deal? Finder? Broker? Seller? Thanks.
TWOC:
Just saw this from Tuesday. Looks like Wynnefield and Miller Funds will be taking charge of Board. Hopefully the stock starts to find more radar screens.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61917825
AMTX
Announces 1 for 10 reverse stock split. Looks like uplisting is on the way:
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=61929304&symbol=AMTX
CSTI:
Positive Seeking Alpha article released yesterday afternoon:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2148043-costar-technologies-continues-to-offer-significant-upside?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=46
The final documentation may take a while, but a signed MOU or MOA -- even if non-binding -- provides a lot of momentum. Getting these parties to sign off on something would be a major milestone, especially for the stock price, IMO.
In the final analysis, even a signed "binding" contract doesn't mean much when you are dealing with Niger and a China entity. But there is nothing else you can do. The critical negotiation for AMMX is payment protection for whatever portion of this deal (or these deals) AMMX is to receive for itself. As I have posted before, I have no feel for what AMMX actually nets from either of these deals.
I do note that the truck deal seems to have gone from $270 million to $200 million. Small detail . . . .
My guess is that this whole process -- even if ultimately successful -- will take a lot longer to unfold than many on this board seem to be anticipating. But in the meantime the less exotic deals keep coming, the business grows and we are all making money while we wait. Seems to me the story is all good. Now, if Q1 numbers show that the Company has respectable (better) earnings, I think we will have lift off.
"Significant impact on our revenue and net income"
As one who is somewhat Niger/China skeptical, this is music to my ears. If Q1 numbers are good, I anticipate adding to what I have.
The terms Memorandum of Agreement and Memorandum of Understanding are frequently used in documents that contain the essential terms of a business arrangement or transaction. Sometimes they are binding, but usually they precede complete contract documents. The parties use them to make sure everyone is "on the same page" before formal documents are drafted.
In a deal of this size the MOA or MOU will recite whether or not it is binding, but I would be very surprised in a deal of this size that any party will be bound before complete, formal contract documents are signed.
That said, in a deal of this size, I think a signed MOA or MOU would be a big deal.
I beg to differ. The article was written on February 17th when the stock was at about $.015 or thereabouts. The stock went up dramatically almost immediately afterwards, although there are no doubt other events (conference call) that had a lot to do with it. Seeking Alpha has a big following, and certainly Mik's article contributed to my decision to purchase the stock. I think it had and continues to have a very positive impact.
Seems to me that it may help boost the price of the stock, or may just be an expensive, time-consuming distraction. It adds a measure of uncertainty which concerns me. Thanks.
hweb2: What is your reaction to the shareholder proxy solicitation and activism? Thanks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shareholder-moves-to-solicit-proxies-for-texcom-inc-shareholder-meeting-2014-03-31?reflink=MW_news_stmp
The numbers soon to be reported for Q1 are at least as important to me as the twists and turns of the large deals. The Company’s sequential revenue growth in 2013 was impressive. I get the following approximate numbers from the PRs:
Q1: 504,000
Q2: 878,000
Q3: 1,400,000
Q4 3,000,000
On the other hand, while I have not studied the numbers carefully, and there may be one time charges, etc., net income has been choppy:
Q1: (119,424)
Q2 272,218
Q3 113,000
Q4 54,000
Those that follow the Company more closely, or have followed it longer, may be able to explain the decline in net income during the last 3 quarters. I note that in the PR announcing year end results, Lee makes it a point to say the following:
Appreciate the advice. Thanks.
IMO, an excellent description of the company and its prospects if the current pace of growth continues.
CFGX:
Thanks for this idea.
The numbers are consistent with guidance give in mid-February, and so I think that the numbers were already reflected in the price of the stock by the time they were actually reported.
OT:
Have had a chance to study the documentation, and the acquisition is not at all what I assumed. No relevance that I can see to either PEIX or AMTX. Sorry if misleading.
re PEIX, AMTX:
More detail on BIOF acquisition talk:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/GreenlightBrickman+Make+Non-Binding+Proposal+to+BioFuel+Energy+Corp.+%28BIOF%29/9328106.html
This is all reported on VM Junior Energy board, so perhaps no need for me to pass it along here.
re PEIX, AMTX:
BIOF up 51% after hours Friday on the strength of preliminary non-binding acquisition proposal:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12559706/1/why-biofuel-energy-biof-is-exploding-after-hours.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Don't know enough about BIOF to assess extent to which it might be relevant to PEIX.
You say "lets all be skeptics." Why should we "all" be anything?
And why do you care what I post?
If you listen to the 2/14 conference call, the impression is left that on this just completed trip, Lee was going to go to Niger and then to China. He was going to accompany representatives from Niger to China to inspect the trucks. The impression is left that if the trucks meet with Niger’s approval, the “deal” is ready to be inked and signed.
The trip to Niger was delayed, and it appears (from a Marty email that has been shared on this board), that the China leg of the trip has been deferred until next month. I conclude that the “deal” is not ready to be signed. We will know next week if it is dead, wounded, or just delayed.
A question was asked by one poster why no mention of the Niger trip in today’s PR. I offered my views. It was not your question, and the answer was not directed at you. Although I have not asked you why you post your relentlessly upbeat comments over and over every day, I can see that a little “skepticism” (some might “realism”) doesn’t sit well with you, and so you question my motives.
FWIW, I bought 1.1 million shares of this stock about a month ago at around $.0165/share. I have treated 400,000 as trading shares (in and out), and am holding 700,000 as a core position. I have never shorted the stock, if that is even possible with this $.03 pinky.
My own view is that my investment in this company is not aided by a message board where everybody is actively talking the stock up. It sounds too much like the usual pump and dump nonsense, attracting lottery types – a turn off to more serious investors. This is a real company and deserves better. Already one poster has talked about NEEDING this stock to be higher than $.03 per share. Very dangerous that people are putting money into this company that they cannot afford to lose.
But I will turn the board over to the cheerleaders, if understandable skepticism is to be met with hostility. It doesn’t matter to me whether I post here or not.
If this is directed at my post, I am talking about a draft of the PR describing the status of the Niger/China deal. Again, the prospect of a "$270 million deal" -- whatever that means -- is the reason why many people are making buy/sell decisions in relation to this stock. The company needs to avoid misleading statements, and an attorney will help walk what must be a very difficult line for the company. I have no doubt that the discussions are real. But as for a revenue-positive "deal," I will believe it when I see it.
In the meantime, it is worth emphasizing that this is a great little company whatever the end result of the Niger/China experience. Nice to see the financials come in today consistent with earlier guidance. Gives a measure of comfort that the company is for real.
It seems pretty clear that we do not have a signed deal. Assuming that there are more rounds to go, I think Company needs to be very careful what it says about the Niger/China discussions. No doubt there is a draft being reviewed by legal now.