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Geo ,
Dr. Lee Russell currently holds 195,000 shares. He sold 30,000 shares on May 22, 2017
Thanks for the knowledge! Just out of curiosity, are you working in the CDC Ashland area? I lived in Louisville for 17+ years
Hey Kyoil, Just curious what your thoughts are if MJ#1 not only is an oil producer, but also a natural gas producer? What would the combination of both oil and natural gas do to the stock price?
I agree with you Dolphin. I think they have doubled down and really are convinced that ZN is a scam or that it's impossible for one rig in Israel to strike oil. They're thinking "if it hasn't been found by now, then it's not there". Their hearts are hard, even as the information that continues to flow out indicates a strike.
Thanks JRyan. The fact that the company seemed satisfied with 680k rights exercised and did not extend the deadline or promote it any more than what they did screams volumes about what they think they have in this well. I believe those that postulated that this rights offering was done to bless the long time shareholders was spot on.
The trap is set. 8.8 days to recover. When the news hits, the shorts will be in some serious pain.
Speaking of news, any word on the rights offering 8k? I emailed Zion today about updated timing but haven't received a response yet
Well, I won the over on 4.5 million, but was short of my 4.75 million prediction ??
I checked the SEC FOIA library just now. There are still NO FOIA requests or SEC responses concerning ZN. And there are many, many Probes Reporter requests archived there.
Well said JRyan, on all points.
Because John was obviously having an off the record conversation with his executives. He was not trying to selectively disseminate market moving information to specific shareholders.
Here is a summary of regFD
Regulation Fair Disclosure,[1] also commonly referred to as Regulation FD or Reg FD, is a regulation that was promulgated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August 2000.[2] The rule mandates that all publicly traded companies must disclose material information to all investors at the same time.
The regulation sought to stamp out selective disclosure, in which some investors (often large institutional investors) received market moving information before others (often smaller, individual investors).
Regulation FD fundamentally changed how companies communicate with investors by bringing more transparency and more frequent and timely communications, perhaps more than any other regulation in the history of the SEC.
On April 2, 2013, the Securities and Exchange Commission said companies can use social media to disseminate information if certain requirements are met. As with company websites, investors’ access to the chosen social media platform must not be restricted and investors must be notified about which social media will be used to disseminate information.[3]
Most corporate announcements are issued via press releases or conference calls and then summarized on websites.
Geo, always open to learning. What's your take given the knowns?
Jl1, I'm trying to follow the math on the Andarka pet. example. Please correct any errors you see.
At a $30 billion market cap with 1.7 billion barrel reserve, I calculate a per barrel net of $18/BBL. Which is actually fairly close to Tisdale's $20/BBL netback.
I don't see a P\E.
Also, in your experience, does a Price-to-forward Earnings ratio ever come into play when determining a stock price for an Oil company?
Hey Steve, JDizzy and Tisdale,
Earlier this week someone asked what would a natural gas find be worth. I thought this was a good question as most wells have both gas and oil. Here's what I've calculated for Natural Gas produced by MJ#1,2,3,4,5 etc....
For this exercise, I'm assuming that most of Zion's NG discovery would be exported as Israel already has roughly 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (NG) discoveries, which would cover an estimated 75 years of Israel's NG needs (from "Natural Gas in Israel" Wiki).
Natural Gas futures markets typically price NG in $ per Millions BTU (British Thermal Units). Current NG European import prices are $7.19 per Million BTU (MMBTU). That equates to about $7.32 per 1000 cubic ft.
The other thing we need to factor in this calculation is the cost of the infrastructure required to get the gas processed and transported to the closed terminal. Given that in the US in 2014, NG pipeline cost ~ $6.57 MILLION per MILE, using that number it would cost $131 million just install enough pipeline to transport the gas 20 miles (which is roughly the distance to the closest Israeli NG infrastructure point at Afula). I estimate onsite processing equipment would cost about $5 million, so total infrastructure cost would be about $135 million.
Given these assumptions, a discovery of 1 trillion cubic feet of NG would be worth (1 trillion cu.ft. X $7.37 / 1000 cu.ft.) $7.37 Billion, less $135 Million for infrastructure, for a net of approx $7.25 Billion.
That means, assuming 70,000,000 outstanding shares, each Trillion cubic feet of NG would be worth $103.57/share. Using a P/E of 10, the stock price would be worth $1035.70/share for a 1 Trillion cubic feet discovery.
Now here's the fun part. If Zion's NG discovery winds up the same as the Leviathan discovery, which is 22 trillion cubic feet of NG, the discovery would be worth 22 X $1035.70 = $22,785/share.
That would be added to whatever the oil discovery is worth.
Please feel free to check my math as I've been multi-tasking while doing this. Have a good night my friends
I just checked EDGAR and there's no 8k files yet.
I've been thinking of selling stuff on Craig's List....need to clean out the garage anyway!
My friends, a wise pastor said to me one time: "In the essentials, unity. In the non-essentials, liberty. But in all things, love".
We have traveled so far together, and I'm grateful for each of you, to have shared in this vision and this call of Zion Oil & Gas.
I believe a short trap is set.
But I thought I saw in the SM video where Vic suggested ZN may need to file a post deadline addendum to disclose full testing results. I believe it is possible that the final testing results won't be ready until mid July. Could you check your notes from the shareholders meeting and see if Vic did allude to a possible addendum post deadline please? I think it's important we are prepared for that possibility.
Tisdale, I'll take the over on 4.5 million.
I'm guessing 4.75 million
Yes. Can you imagine if they, say, shorted 1000 shares at $4/share on May 15th. If good news is announced on July15th that MJ#1 is commercial such that the stock opens on July 16th at $40/share, the shorter would lose $36,000. (They, in effect, borrowed 1000 shares from their broker, sold those borrowed shares for $4/share, then had to buy them back at $40/share and give back to the broker the 1000 shares they originally borrowed). You can imagine the panic that will take place among those who are sort the 4 million shares the day MJ#1 is announced as being commercial.
BTW - this is what Tisdale was referring to earlier. You can call your broker and instruct him not to allow your shares to be loaned out for shorting
Tisdale, I agree with your opinion that this is a large oil find and here's my reasoning.
One of the things that caught my attention in the Q&A video was when Victor responded to the question of how long can the MJ lease be extended (or something to that effect). Victor responded that if this well is confirmed to have oil, the the license area will be reclassified as a DISCOVERY and they will be granted up to a 50 year license. It was Victor's use of 50 years that caught my attention because, in my research yesterday on development of HPHT wells (I'm an electrical engineer by degree and I work in aerospace currently, so I'm learning all this oil and gas stuff as we go), I ran across a statement that said normal production leases for oil and gas fields are for 10 to 30 years, but for huge discoveries (mega was the term I think was used), they said production licenses are granted for 50 years, which would be customary for a huge (mega) find, at least according to my research. I wish I had bookmarked the website that had that statement, and I'll try to find it today, But I believe this may have been a freudian slip by Vic ( a tell for you poker players), especially given the excitement shown by Dustin and the others. I would like to know from the oilmen that post to this board if it is their experience that 50 year licenses are granted for huge (mega) discoveries
Broken, actually, the High pressure aspect of the well should mean that Zion will avoid high cost extraction techniques. But the high pressure also requires the proper safety equipment be in place. A blowout or uncontrolled "kick" would be catastrophic. That's why it took so long to drill this well. Zion obviously erred on the side of caution. Any catstrophies (safety or environmental) would have been unrecoverable most likely
With the confirmation of this being a HP/HT well, I found this quote off the ringtone website
"By their very nature, high-pressure fields contain more hydrocarbons than those with normal conditions. As long as the fields boast large enough reservoirs, the development of HP/HT wells is economical."
I guess we just need to hear the confirmation of the reservoir size!
Here's the link:
https://www.rigzone.com/training/insight.asp?insight_id=328&c_id=
The SEC Enforcement website stated that investigations are done in private. I believe ZN management when they say they are not aware of any investigations as the SEC would not have contacted them if they are early in the investigation phase.
I submitted all the documentation I had. It is in review now with the attorneys. They said the review could take up to 14 days. That's all they could say at this point. I'll keep you posted.
JRyan, I reached out to an attorney today to see if any laws were violated with regard to the SEC's FOIA process and Mr. Probes use of non-public information.
I feel, as a shareholder and part owner of ZN, that the company, and all of us as owners of the company, may have been materially harmed due to the timing of Mr. Probes attack using non-public SEC information, given the attack was launched at the end of the rights offering (the effect being that the resulting lower share price denied some the opportunity to sell shares for funds that could have been used to then buy rights, thereby increasing the amount of funds Zion would have for continued operations).
I know there have been a lot of negative comments about Zion's CEO pay. Here's an interesting article addressing this issue:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zion-oil-gas-inc-nasdaq-012220003.html
Thank you microcaps. You summarized well exactly what I saw in my research, which was that Mr. Probes had a letter from the SEC stating there was an open investigation on ZN, but that letter was NOT yet posted to the SEC FOIA library. In effect, Mr. Probes and his clients had insider information from the SEC. Information that even Zion management did not have
This allowed Mr. Probes and his clients to hit ZN with the no win scenario, which was to ask ZN publically through Sicial media if they were under investigation by the SEC. If ZN answers no, then they call them liars and post the FOIA letter Mr. Probes has obtained. If ZN does know and answers yes, then Mr. Probes and his clients scream, "this company is a scam!" (where have we heard that before?). Either way, stock tanks.
Really makes me sick. I'm in the process of filing a complaint with the SEC.
Geo - Is it possible that the first zone would not be commercial as a stand alone well, but could be commercialized if other zones prove to be commercial?
Hey Tisdale, the one thing I would like to see from the shareholders meeting is a clearly defined timeline for well results. That would help level-set all expectations. Have a great time in Dallas
Spifster,
The letter Mr. Probes got was a standard response he gets from every appeal for review he makes. The letter basically says nothing other than, "Yes, there is an investigation". That's it. It doesn't say what the investigation is for, if the company has been contacted, have any subpoenas been issued....it's a big nothing sandwich.
If you got to SEC.gov, in the search field type "FOIA Library", it will take you to the web page where you can search a FOIA requests and responses. Do a search for "Probes". You'll literally get hundreds of hits. But you won't find his letter for Zion. That's why I believe Zion, because the response th Mr. Probes isn't posted to the website.
The only place you can find any mention of Zion is in the logs from March. But that's merely an acknowledgement that Mr. Probes submitted an FOIA request concerning Zion
Geo - the information supports Zions assertion that Mr. Probes is a part of a short and distort operation. Mr. Probes is a hired gun. But rather than pump a company in a pump and dump scheme, he distorts the integrity of a company through distortion of facts. As JRyan has said, it's immoral whether or not it's illegal (which I am going to ask the SEC tomorrow)
BTW - not trying to bash. Appreciate your posts
So I've been doing some research into this alleged SEC investigation and the Probes Reporter who has unearthed this investigation. I have developed an opinion as to what's going on based on what I was able to find today.
First, according to www.probesreporter.com, the probes reporter is basically a hired gun. For $1200/yr, you can become a client of this service, then ask them for a report of any open, ongoing SEC investigations regarding your particular company of interest (BTW - for a cool $20,000/yr you can get the deluxe Probes treatment). Apparently, once you've paid for your subscription, Mr. probes reporter then files FOIA requests with the SEC regarding any open investigation of the target company. According to the SEC.gov website, Probes Reporter has filed ~500 FOIA requests since October, 2017. Here's an example of one he filed regarding Bojangles, Inc. in December 2017 (lol)
[url][/url][tag]https://www.sec.gov/files/18-00851-T.pdf[/tag]
Second, according to the SEC.gov website, the SEC enforcement division:
I've had some thoughts about this alleged SEC investigation against ZN. I will be calling the SEC on Monday. I have some questions about this alleged investigation that has no specifics about the alleged investigation. At this point, it looks like some party may have filed an unsubstantiated complaint against ZN, which I assume requires the SEC to open some type of file on the matter. Once a file is opened, then the accuser, through a 3rd party, starts pestering the SEC through FOIA requests for a response to the question of if there is an investigation open. In ZN's case, it took 2 requests just to get the response the accuser (short) wanted; a response on SEC letterhead that there is an "open investigation". My questions for the SEC will be:
1) Does every complaint made to the SEC result in an open investigation?
2) Can there be an open investigation against a company without their knowledge?
3) Can they confirm that there is an open investigation against ZN? If so, has ZN been notified of said investigation and what specifically is being investigated?
4) I will also ask if they will open an investigation into a possible S&D attack going on against ZN
I heard a story of a wise investor, who, during a market panic, was asked by someone, "So, how much money have you lost?!?". The wise investor replied, "None." "None?", the person asked. "Yes, none." Replied the investor. "How is that possible? The stock is down so much". Asked the panicked young man. "It's simple. I haven't sold anything"....
Thank you for the reminder Tisdale.
To quote that great philosopher Aaron Rodgers,
"R-E-L-A-X" ??
KS, It is not my intent to beat on you. In fact, I appreciate any contrarian views. We all have a lot riding on this. I've been burned by some pinkies in the past, caught in some pump n dump schemes. And on the surface ZN may look that way. But, IMHO, this company is genuinely trying to fulfill its stated goal - energy independence for Israel. And it is moving in the direction of that go. Granted, not as fast as we'd all like, but it appears by all accounts they are. The big unanswered question at this point is if MJ#1 is commercially viable. We all anxiously await the answer, wish that, ZN would give us more, real time updates. But maybe mgmt. fears if they do, they'll be accused of trying to manipulate the stock price, which, ironically, they are being accused of by some in the first place. So, it appears mgmt is defaulting to a more conservative approach to progress reports.
So if you have evidence that is not true, but this is just some Madoff type oil scam, please bring it. I welcome it. But please bring it with verifiable data. Let's have an honest, robust dialog. I welcome it and I assume most others here do too. But please don't troll the board. That would bring no value
Thanks Tisdal. As usual, you are spot on with the irrefutable facts.
So your assertion is Zion has missed EVERY deadline in it's entire existence? Please be specific
Got a lot there ks.
First, over the last 25 years, Israel has gotten most of it's oil from Angola, Columbia, Mexico and Norway. Not exactly a who's who of Arab countries. The only exception has been Egypt, whom Israel has a peace treaty with ( and, by the way, Israel is going to be selling NG to) and the Iraqi Kurds. I leave the history of that group to your own research (if you really do any)
Second, do you have any data to support your assertion that ZN is blatantly lying about meeting deadlines? Which deadlines do you refer to? Such generalizations do not support your original accusation.
Facts and verifiable data please....
As others in this board have pointed out before, larger oil companies have much to lose if they anger theorists host by helping Israel, their sworn enemy