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That’s not what they’re doing with the second group of 25. They’re using a pool of “patients” with liver problems and not simply random volunteers. Selective. Will help find a better correlation than simply the 4 in 25 from progress report on first group of 25.
High BMI does not (illogically) correlate to higher risk of fatty liver. Surprising.
Facts are all in the conference call transcript.
Balding. Company has been quiet. Any thoughts?
Great news yesterday. Allergan behind us. Legal overhang removed.
Well done management for front loading legal efforts.
We rocket back to $8+ IMHO.
They will/may need to raise (some) cash. But historically they’ve been very judicious in doing so (small raises), and suspect (based on history) will be done after news which proves tech’s worth and SP significantly higher JUSTIFYING that higher market cap.
I’d rather buy NDRA at $1.0 with the threat of possible 20% dilution than caught in low float bidding war when news released and this screams in AH to god knows where (just as quickly as it dropped post late March preliminary test results). What’s SP when 20% diluted from $3 or $4?
$1.00 is a bargain. Also don’t believe 100% dilution. Not how this company has done raises before.
After listening to CEOs explanation on conference call, preliminary trial results were a lot more clear. And in my opinion very encouraged they know WHAT they need to do and HOW to get there. Again, JMHO.
Good luck to you.
Trying. When results posted retail sold first and asked questions later. Frustrating.
Flip side it’s a buying opportunity if you believe company will pull it off. Bashing of CEO was unwarranted, however.
Best thing company can do now is execute as promised. Returns will come in time. Good luck.
I suspect Andy will release a shareholder letter today. Let’s see what it says.
They say they’re giving guidance each quarter so they believe they have some level of visibility.
Suspect merchandise licensing is where the real revenue is. And that won’t happen until Q3 as we already know.
You were expecting higher revs, weren’t you?
Not true. Listen to call. Stock is 80% retail and scared of financing need. CEO explained human trial progress. Very encouraging. 6% good but in process of adjusting system to achieve <8%. EU Cert on track for 2H 2019. Many catalysts to propel higher. Once financing overhang removed stock price recovers. But will rocket regardless on any good news and management hopefully learned lesson retail investors lack depth of subject knowledge. Acknowledged need to educate better. Market cap of stock is ridiculously cheap compared to TAM.
Agree. Completely. Inflection will be sudden and highly impactful to revenue ramp. Simply taking longer as it does with many micro/small cap disruptive tech companies.
Once they sign a partner (expected Q2) it will better position them to accelerate. George seemed adamant on the call they see either revs ramping very quickly or non-dilutive cash infusion when asked about concerns for present cash runway. Royalty avg on chips of 9.25% and growing.
“Millions” of units shipping Q2. “Tens of millions” Q3 and ramping further into Q4
Never heard George so bullish. 70+ employees. 18 with PhDs. Things are progressing.
I’m in.
Ty. Thanks for feedback. Haven’t listened to call yet but been in name for 4 years waiting for this to blossom.
Good to hear revenue ramp is happening now in Q2. Already halfway through. So guidance for Q2 should be accurate.
Curious to see how market reacts tomorrow. I expect green if they listened to call and didn’t panic on headline alone.
GL
Shot to $2.33. Something is up.
Agreed.
Investor. Suggest you listen to the conf call transcript (should be available on Seeking Aloha soon) if you missed the call live. No change from what I’ve been mentioning. Regulatory approval in Asia is hurdle that’s in process. Not if but when story. Confirmed with management after call.
Unfortunately there’s no visibility on Apple NDA and when it’s over. They can’t say. That said it was confirmed their Chinese phone manufacturer (vivo) relationship is strong and suggest looking into that company and announcement. Considering phone product cycle wouldn’t expect them in that phone until 2020.
Hearable products coming to market sooner but much smaller chip volume.
Read Dialog comments from last conf call. They stated “thousand of Energous chips in 2019. Millions of units in 2020”. Would not expect meaningful revenue until 2020. Dialog has very high level of credibility.
Energous had only $66K in revs in Q1. $50K from engineering services and $16K from chips. Guessing only 8,000 chips sold in Q1. ($2/ chip set per earlier calls)
Do some DD on Vivo Global and phone volume it sells. Even though Not prevalent in US, are in Europe, Mid East, India. Millions of units a Q. In my opinion this is the “millions of units” Dialog reference. And Dialog referenced multiple companies they’re in discussion with like it. Vivo is only one of four I believe Dialog mentioned in terms of engagements. Again, read their last CC transcript.
Point being this is not only an Apple or Samsung or Sony story.
Adoption has been a challenge. Five years to bring a product to market. CEO credibility shot but best they can do now is perform and quiet the nay sayers by delivering. Nothing else matters at this point. 65 employees. Most RF engineers.
Personally believe stock price is low range bound until regulatory approval in Asia. Heavily shorted and shorts have a lot of resources to manipulate price. I’m holding through the storm. I’ve seen the tech and it works and is better than Qi contact with possibility of over-air charging. Paradigm shift.
Just taking more time than CEO believed. Met him on number of occasions. Not a malicious guy, just overly optimistic because they thought Apple could help but cannot cut corners with regulatory regardless of partner.
Latter I’d just my opinion.
Holding and lending my shares to shorts for 18% dividend until price breaks out. Not bad for doing nothing. About $1000/ month.
Hang in there and hope it helped.
Good luck to you.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Good luck to you.
Actual in person demonstrations on Mid and Far. Seen both. At HQ on different occasions. Latest was shareholder meeting last year.
FCC approval of NearField. NearField directly competes with Qi. But better in terms of ability to pair/position. More flexible than Qi. No heat with foreign object detection like Qi. GNaN NearField higher power than Qi too. All contact based. Not over air.
Heat killed Qi and AirPower. Apple cancelled program. Couldn’t get it to work.
Hurdles for WattUp NearField are adoption into already Qi dominated consumer space.
Ecosystem is WattUp’s greatest advantage
NearField is contact based power transmission. How can that be“unsafe?” Is plugging in your phone into a wall outlet unsafe?
Don’t be fooled. Yes. Company has hurdles but safety is not it. Regulatory in Asia and Apple NDA.
These quotes don’t prove anything. Blog nonsense aimed to scare uneducated.
So what are 72 employees (most RF engineers) working on? That all working on one big lavish hoax?
Why did Dialog invest millions in them and are actively partnered. Read latest Dialog conf call transcript for status of chip delivery.
Why did Apple and another top T1 partner with them?
As I’ve said at the beginning of this thread. Regulatory approvals in China, Japan and South Korea and the tight NDA with Apple are the two biggest roadblocks for product launches.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
Good luck to you.
Bathed in RF energy like having a WiFi router in your home or holding a cell phone to your ear?
Who would do such a thing?
Oh. That’s right. Everyone.
Nope. Safe. Lower emissions than WiFi router or a cell phone. And more versatile and effective than Qi.
FCC approved the tech in 2017
How did you not know that?
This is all about regulatory approvals in China, SK and Japan now. Without these it inhibits product launch.
It’s not about the tech. The tech works. It’s about regulatory approvals. Primarily.
Plus there is language in the agreement with Apple which is hurting their ability to get product out with other companies. They thought Partnering with Apple would propel them, which it may have internally some way (US and European regulatory and Patents), but it’s certainly hurt their ability to launch product with other companies before Apple. And my opinion is without regulatory approvals from those key other countries Apple is apprehensive.
Puts the breaks on the whole thing until
1. They get regulatory approvals in those key countries OR
2. The term limits of the Agreement with Apple expire
Both are unknowns to investors and how many times have you heard the statement “the Market doesn’t like uncertainty”?
Yes. This SpacePOP press release from 2017 is a reminder that GBI and Andy Heyward have over-promised and under-delivered before.
Problems we always saw with SpacePOP were the digital-only YouTube distribution as a way of content distribution is flawed. What hit show is only offered on YouTube?
None
Also the animation quality was terrible
But most importantly we think the message and storyline were weak. Fighting evil is such an overplayed story and the episodes were weak in general.
Llama Llama however is a tried, established and popular brand that GBI is simply expanding upon. Much greater probability of success. Jennifer Gardner voice strengthens the Mama Llama character too.
RR has better animation than SpacePOP by far. But more importantly the storyline is more relevant and distribution channels more effective than a YouTube heavy campaign.
But your re-link to the 2017 PR is a dismal reminder we’ve been lead to think something exciting at GBI is developing when in fact, it wasn’t.
Proof will be in the revenue numbers moving forward.
GLTA
“Genius Brands” (Nasdaq:GNUS) flagship animated series, ?Rainbow Rangers?, Nickelodeon Latin America has licensed season one (52 x 11’) of the series to debut in August on the Nick Jr. channel, and available to stream beginning in June on its NOGGIN preschool mobile app”
I’m assuming “licensing season one” for both the channel and the app bring their own separate revenues to GBI upon release.
Good to hear there’s broader interest for the show. While it may or may not become a blockbuster hit in the US, expanding viewership increases probability it becomes a meaningful and profitable property somewhere.
Thanks Rick.
Rick,
You want to take another stab at buyout share price? Or near term share price target?
Does latest shareholder letter adjust your previous forecast?
Agree on the under-promise at $6.4M.
We’ve been here a long time as shareholders because we believe the GBI content with a purpose message holds value in the kids marketplace and fills a void niche.
That said we don’t understand the entertainment and content creation business and were here as shareholders way too early. Lesson learned.
Yet here we are at an inflection point five years later and looking forward to true value creation in late 2019 and 2020.
Andy Heyward is not getting any younger (now age 70) I’d suspect he tries and sell the company in the next few years. Plus if the Stan Lee property is a hit (or RR or LL blow up into big hits), studios will pounce. Big IFs. But Stan Lee’s passing combined with his Midas touch on exploding Marvel into a multi-billion $$ enterprise will attract buyers.
$500M - $600M for a company like this if the properties gain traction seem like reasonable valuations. Still too early to see fullness of story, but things clear enough for GBI to give guidance.
So that’s pivotal.
Remember Andy owns 1,369,199 shares and the last 640,401 were bought at $3.12. So he’s underwater +30% on those shares. Half his position. Others were obtained at $2.20 or so if I recall.
Point being he has every reason to want to see share price appreciate and not get diluted further.
I’ll report what I hear from IR on rev numbers.
Good luck to everyone.
Agree things will clear up some when they report Q1 numbers.
$6.4M net revenues for 2019 still seems too low. They did say they want to “under promise and over deliver”. Discrepancy could be part of that strategy. Also their “conservative view” might be assuming the worst in terms of which merchandise advances get booked in 2019, or like you mentioned, S2 of LL May not get booked until Q1-2020 versus when it’s delivered (Q4-2019)
Clearly the market is confused too. No stock movement.
Yeah. It’s confusing. I did assume 22M shares in my numbers, even though yes, we’re 10M shares outstanding currently.
Would expect them to raise necessary funds for operations and show production through dilution moving forward. Even if 12M more shares are brought to the market (unclear if that’s where this is going or IR hinted to non-dilutive financing) then that’s $24M+ cash, which should be more than enough to get them to profitability. $10M burn per year.
When I have time I’ll reach out to IR to ask clarity on rev numbers. Mike Porter has been fairly easy to get a hold of. I believe at this point Andy and GBI have some ticked shareholders and IR is doing all they can to be available to calm the natives.
Keep in mind CEO is single largest shareholder of GNUS. He doesn’t want to dilute himself either.
I can’t either.
$6.4M net revs in 2019.
Based on what we sort of know about season 1 RR revs, season 2 Llama revs, merchandise advances and network income these are my assumptions for full year 2019
$500K network revs (twice 2018)
$3M season 2 Lama (in Q4-2019)
$2M season 1 RR (in Q1-2019)
$3-4M merchandise advances (Q3&4-2019) (conservatively 50-60% of known total $6.4M)
Would imagine they still burn $10-$11M in 2019
Where are my numbers off?
$6.4M for all of 2019 seems too low. Especially when IR directly shared they thought “60-70% of merchandise advances would be booked in 2019 and the rest in 2020”
Thoughts?
Rick, what does $16.3M projected 2021 net revenue do to your price target? 6x revs is $97.8M or $4.45 at 22M shares fully diluted.
Alternatively $6.3M profit in 2021 (assume $10M expenses) yields $4.36 at a 16 P/E.
Both price targets very similar.
What am I missing?
“Genius Brands we see now at an inflection point and on a fast track to extraordinary growth. We have powerful new properties coming through a robust pipeline of new shows, one of which will be announced in the days leading up to Licensing Expo, which occurs annually in early June, and we see as a 3rd possible blockbuster.”
Rick, your “inflection point” mention too.
“In July:
Llama Llama Best Summer Ever DVD from NCircle Entertainment will be at major mass market retailers.”
Rick, you finally got your public mention on the DVD set.
I need to listen again before putting all the numbers together.
Yes. I need a replay for the revenue projections. Was listening without a pen in hand.
They’re expecting what seemed to be $15M in 2019 between production revenue and product revenue. 2020 numbers were much much higher on the production side.
Rick, did you write them down?
This is a good call. Informative.
This thing was $5+ just a few months ago. How is $4.50 a stretch?? When TAEUS proves out this will rocket.
What is TAM for TAEUS and today’s market cap is what?!
Their marketing generally stinks.
Especially for an entertainment company.
Agreed.
Yes. Good point. Might be details on the new Stan Lee IP.
How I wish the stock price would go up but alas, without serious revenue to back it Andy is simply the boy who cried wolf. For years.
Until (hopefully) proven otherwise.
Happy to be wrong by the way.
We’ll be listening Monday AM. Highly doubt he mentions any DVD sales. Heck he hardly mentions anything about the TV channel or other properties besides RR and Llama these days
GLTY
Don’t think so. Unfortunately. Perhaps more detail on recent RR Season 2.
You and I both know this stock is dead until they bring in merchandise revenue stream. Q4 to Q1 2020.
Will get lumpy revs from delivering shows in Q1 (RR Season 1) and Q4 (Llama Llama Season 2)
BUT they need $$ to develop RR Season 2. Dilution or no dilution?