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List of Leap 1B orders is growing
Last order Jet Airways, India. 75 planes
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/11/10/jet-airways-is-buying-75-new-plans-from-boeing/
List of Boeing 737 MAX orders: 2827 planes ordered = 5654 Leap 1B
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders
Orders from China will follow
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/china-signs-deal-to-buy-300-boeing-aircraft-xinhua-reports
Lynn Gambill, Pratt & Whitney: about EBM
Pratt & Whitney is proceeding from metal 3D printing prototyping to introducing a limited number of low-rate initial production parts, as we have taken metal powders through an EBM process to as-built and then to post-processing, inspection, and finishing.
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1365&dfpLayout=blog&dfpPParams=ind_183%2Cindustry_aero%2Ckw_24%2Caid_276773&doc_id=276773&page_number=2
Alcoa Expands R&D Center to Deepen Additive Manufacturing Capabilities
http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/news/news_detail.asp?pageID=20150903000287en&newsYear=2015
Alcoa Opens Advanced Jet Engine Parts Facility in Indiana
http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/news/news_detail.asp?pageID=20151029000303en&newsYear=2015
Knowing that Alcoa is a supplier for Pratt & Whitney....
GE in competition with Pratt & Whitney
The $400 million GE development represents an all-out assault on Pratt & Whitney Canada’s half-century dominance of the business
http://aviationweek.com/business-aviation/ge-takes-pt6-engine-advanced-turboprop
So, how far is P&W in additive manufacturing:
see The UCONN additive manufacturing innovation center
http://www.amic.uconn.edu/about-additive-manufacturing/facilities
And this article:
http://optics.org/news/6/4/7
The new engine will also include 3D-printed parts, which debuted inside the LEAP jet engine
New line of Turboprop engines (GE)
http://gereports.eu/post/133339841794/the-biggest-win-new-engine-set-to-lift-ges
Lack of information:
In my believe Mr René is withholding information
Sale this year (1st- 3th quarter) 29 systems
sales mentioned by press releases; 16 systems
last sale mentioned by press release; 30 september
october, november, december no systems sold?
Or non of the buyers wants to be mentioned in a press release (because of the competition?)
The production facility in Sweden is doubled in 2014 / 2015
Vacancies: http://www.arcam.com/arcam-expanding-seeking-new-talents/
for example:
Field service engineer (based in Italy)
Global support engineer
Area sales manager for North America
An expansion in production facility and a growing demand for specialised staff are signs that the business is still growing.
Mr.Magnus René is not sharing all information with us.
Any information that would harm a customer or a future customer is not shared with us.
Real sales and deliveries will be mentioned by numbers in quarterly- and year reports.
80 systems?
Take a look at the sales in 2014; 20 systems sold in the last quarter, 20 of the total of 42 systems.
So 47% of the sales in 2014 is done in the last quarter.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2015/12/13/qdspxarcam_sales.png
Titanium Sales by the Additive Manufacturing Industry
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/titanium-sales-by-the-additive-manufacturing-industry-to-exceed-330-million-300173280.html
marTech Markets Publishing projects revenues for titanium powders used in additive manufacturing to reach more than $330 million, corresponding to 730,500 Kgs of titanium.
It is not mentionned when, but I suppose they mean in a couple of years.
Medical applications of AM titanium will account for around 274,000 Kg of Titanium in 2020 thanks to this growth.
With the estimation of Avio Aero, 30 tons produced titanium products in 2018, what equals 4% of the estimated worldwide use of titanium powders, my estimations feel realistic.
My estimation of the 30 tons a year (3D printed parts) that Avio Aero estimates for 2018:
Suppose; 7 blades in one cycle for a Q20, or 3 brackets.
My estimation of the weight per cycle?
3 to 4 kilograms.
Suppose 3 cycles in 24 hours equals approx. 10 kilograms
30 days in one month = 300 kilograms / month for one system.
So in 2018 they probably need 90 systems
Roughly Avio Aero needs an expansion of 20 to 30 systems a year.
And this is not the only company in the aero business.
Suppose they represent 20% of the growing market in production of advanced aviation parts. (for example take a look at the landing gear Safran produces)
So Arcam has to deliver around 125 systems a year for the aviation production market.
The medical implant market is a steady market and growing with approx. 35% a year.
My estimation is 20 systems for 2015
So, 27 systems for 2016, 38 systems for 2017, etc.
Then we have the automotive business, military-, space-, oil-, desalination-,nuclear-, hydro-electric-, etc. etc. and off-course prototyping.
My conclusion; if Arcam has sold 80 systems this year (what I believe), they will probably sell 200 systems next year, and 300plus system in 2017.
Paolo Gennaro of Avio Aero at Airtec:
Paolo Gennaro of Avio Aero shared information on the two-year qualification process of titanium aluminide for producing low pressure turbine blades for aircraft engines. Avio operates 20 Arcam EBM systems and has significant powder production capacity on-site. Peter Pinklbauer of Airbus cited many examples from the more than 120 AM projects the Airbus team has completed. He also reiterated his company’s plan to manufacture 30 tons of 3D-printed parts per month by December 2018, which will reduce raw material use by 270 tons per month.
An important takeaway from the day’s program: Avio Aero, Airbus, and Airbus’ Tier 1 supplier Premium Aerotec are currently using AM for serial production of aerospace parts. Production of aerospace parts using AM is no longer a prediction or a future eventuality. It is a reality today, and it is likely to increase significantly in the foreseeable future.
My question:
What mass can one Q20 print in a month?
http://wohlersassociates.com/blog/2015/12/airtec-2015/
Brackets; Airbus & GKN
Airbus and GKN Aerospace have, both together and separately, developed metal additive manufacturing processes to an advanced stage. Their sights are now set on flight-qualifying a part, as Will Dalrymple reports - See more at: http://www.machinery.co.uk/machinery-features/airbus-and-gkn-aerospace-have-both-together-and-separately-developed-metal-additive-manufacturing-processes-to-an-advanced-stage-their-sights-are-now-set-on-flight-qualifying-a-part-as-will-dalrymple-reports/110930/#.dpuf
RE: Leap1A =not Leap1B
See:
http://www.cfmaeroengines.com/engines/leap
Leap 1B on track?
12-08-2015
The new single-aisle airplane will deliver 20 percent lower fuel use than the first Next-Generation 737s and the lowest operating costs in its class – 8 percent per seat less than the A320neo.
The 737 MAX incorporates the latest technology CFM International LEAP-1B engines, Boeing-designed Advanced Technology winglets and other improvements to deliver the highest efficiency, reliability and passenger comfort in the single-aisle market. The 737 MAX 8 is the first member in Boeing’s new family of single-aisle airplanes – the 737 MAX 7, MAX 8, MAX 200 and MAX 9 – to begin production. The 737 MAX family has nearly 3,000 orders from 60 customers worldwide.
http://www.cfmaeroengines.com/press/boeing-debuts-first-737-max/832
shortanalytics: today / dec 3
Long-short relation of today looks like it was on dec 3.
Tomorrow up again?
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=amavf
p.s. thanks Charlie. to much credits. you deserve most credits for all your postings.
RE: possibilities (2)
Why has there not been an announcement if that's what's happening? Because the customer (GE/Avio Aero/Boeing) doesn't want it. The business end of aerospace is conservative in nature. ??
That's a relevant question, and I believe the answer is right.
Another possible answer is; they don't want to tell the competition what they are working on, and what the progress is.
My guess what the future will bring for Arcam:
A slow start in production of LPT blades by AM, main production by conservative process will be leading for the coming months, coming year.
AM produced blades will only fly if their overall quality is absolutely garanteed.
FastEBM is in progress, in my opinion NGK and Avio are testing the new systems.
I think within a year from now, these are the systems that will produce the bulk of LPT blades, because they are designed for this job.
What are the 20 systems at Avio producing at this moment?
In my opinion no more than five are working on the blades.
Our focus is mainly on turbine blades, one part of the engine.
For sure the engine bracket is produced by AM.
What other parts of the plane could be on the list as well?
Avio is part of GE, but is also producing parts for other companies.
It could easily be that a number of 10 Q20 systems are producing landing gear parts for Safran SA.
What I mean, try to forget the focus on the turbine blades.
Avio has 20 systems.
Safran has 2?
NGK has 2?
Boeing?
The market in orthopedic implants is growing; because it is replacing other production techniques / World demand is growing / new applications are growing.
What about transportation? (cars / train)
Compressors / pumps / intercoolers / refinery / desalination installations etc.
Suppose;
Next year all BMW motorcycles will have the new 3D printed titanium paralever.
http://www.bmw-motorrad.com/za/en/index.html?content=http://www.bmw-motorrad.com/za/en/technology_detail/engine_drive/item_paralever_and_shaft.html¬rack=1
One example!
Two years, be patience
SLM Solutions Group in the picture
https://www.google.com/finance?q=ETR%3AAM3D&ei=J2ZlVrn5CcfCsAHlw66ACA
What others are doing:
For example, DMG Mori Seiki with Lasertec 65 3D
http://be-nl.dmgmori.com/products/lasertec/lasertec-additivemanufacturing/lasertec-65-3d
http://be-nl.dmgmori.com/technical-press/advanced-technologies/hoedtke-gmbh---co--kg---additive-complete-machining-in-finished-parts-quality/385996
And the video, impressive!
http://be-nl.dmgmori.com/media-centre/lasertec-65-3d/306054
Volume production in orthopedics
Additive and Trabecular Manufacturing for Volume Production in the Orthopaedics
Industry
http://www.europm2015.com/post-event/plenary-presentations/102-additive-and-trabecular-manufacturing-for-volume-production-in-the-orthopaedics-industry/file
last pages are interesting!
Latest results FASTEBM
http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/153806_en.html
http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/147198_en.html
Last update was from 2014, how far is Arcam in producing these machines?
First 3D-printed hip implant approved for mass production in China
http://shanghaiist.com/2015/09/02/3d-printed_hip_implant_approved_for.php
Tuan Tranpham Arcam Sales Director
https://twitter.com/ttranpham
http://www.slideshare.net/ttranpham/arcam-company-ebm-inside
Formnext 2015; SLM Solutions group
This has little to do with Arcam, but in case you do not want to bet on one horse, here is a winner too.
Andreas Frahm, Geschäftsführer Vertrieb und Marketing SLM Solutions GmbH ist mit dem Messeverlauf sehr zufrieden: „Wir hatten viele neue Kontakte aus verschiedenen Ländern sowie aus diversen Branchen und Anwendungsbereichen. Bereits während des Messegeschehens haben wir einige Bestellungen, insbesondere für unsere neue SLM 500 HL, verbucht. So hat sich die FIT AG für zwei weitere Anlagen SLM 500 HL (mit vier Lasern) entschieden. Eine weitere SLM 500 HL mit vier Lasern geht an das Unternehmen Pierburg aus Neuss. Eine aus Israel stammende Aerospace Company und ihre strategischen Zulieferer haben zwei SLM 500 HL-Anlagen und eine SLM 125 HL geordert. An ein schottisches Servicebüro geht eine weitere SLM 500 HL mit vier Lasern, es besteht die Option auf eine weitere Maschine im Jahr 2016. Nach Indien wird eine SLM 280 HL an einen Hersteller orthopädischer Implantate geliefert. Weitere Aufträge folgen nun in der Nachbearbeitung der Messe-Leads.“
http://stage.slm-solutions.com/index.php?news-recent_de
EOS, SLM Solutions Sign Cross Licensing Agreement
http://www.tenlinks.com/news/eos-slm-solutions-sign-cross-licensing-agreement/
Additive Industries signs a similar deal
http://www.tctmagazine.com/3D-printing-news/additive-industries-sign-license-agreement-with-eos/
My opinion:
SLM Solutions Group is a nice pick in the coming weeks
RE:Gartner; See Materialise
http://www.materialise.com/
Excellent site with useful information.
One of the winners in the coming years
long/short 95% /5% !!!
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=amavf
The market expects no risk on the downside
Suppose you want to buy 400K shares?
Suppose one party wants to buy 400K shares for an average price of 185 SEK, what is the best way?
By simply buying big amounts the shareprice would rise very fast, I suppose by 100K in two days the share price would rise to 190.
The other way is:
Find a party to buy for you.
And what that third party normally does, is buying and selling (also to themselves) to keep the share price reasonably low.
And with exact timing they sell big amounts to you.
And followed by selling smaller amounts at a lower price to the market.
The fee for the third party is based on the average price of 185 SEK.
Quality of base material is essential in advanced quality production methodology
A mouth full
But let me help you understand.
For example when we look at steel producers:
There are steel producers that can deliver “steel” for a low price (china)
All you need to produce steel is; basic knowledge, coal, iron ore, and oil for the energy.
When the production of steel is close to the winnig areas of these basic products, you can produce against low costs.
But there is steel and “STEEL”
Why is Tatasteel in the Netherlands still in business?
90% of the steel they produce is used in China.
The coal they use comes from Australia and South America
The iron ore comes from Australia.
The oil comes from......
Most of their steel is transported to China...
And still?
It is all about quality of the end product.
The selling price of their endproduct is 50 to 60% higher than the steel produced in China.
They are able to produce a product to the highest standards.
Just that product the specific customer demands, delivered to their standards.
And I think AP&C is a producer of special powders in the AM market that has the same goal and knowledge as “one-eye” Tatasteel in their steel-market.
I think I am misunderstood
I was not referring to the use of multiple sorts of metal powders in one process,
Because thats a long way ahead of the common technology.
Variety of the density in powders melted is the first step (more open structure inside the produced parts)
What I ment:
The quality of the powders that are used are of a major importance!
Powderquality has a direct relation with the quality of the final product.
And when you hear from experts in the business that flowability of the powders is a recent problem.
And when you read that AP&C has solved this problem (new patent).
AP&C is owned by Arcam, has access to all the knowledge Arcam has gathered over years. This gives them an advantage over the other producers of AM powders.
(My english isn't quite as well as it should be on an international forum, but I do hope it's well enough for you to understand my true meaning)
The importance of powder quality:2
(in case you missed the message)
any part produced using additive manufacturing techniques will only be as good as the metal powder used to print it
If the powder does not flow freely, it will not form an even layer over the base of the build chamber
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/manufacturing/in-depth/taking-care-of-the-fine-detail/1020870.article
At least one problem solved by AP&C
AP&C, the high quality powder manufacturing subsidiary of Arcam, uses proprietary technology for Plasma Atomization. This new strategic patent application covers a method to obtain optimal flowability of fine reactive metals powder for Additive Manufacturing.
http://www.arcamgroup.com/investor-relations/press-releases/cisionarticle/568514DFFCC4AD9D/
The importance of powder quality:
any part produced using additive manufacturing techniques will only be as good as the metal powder used to print it
If the powder does not flow freely, it will not form an even layer over the base of the build chamber
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/manufacturing/in-depth/taking-care-of-the-fine-detail/1020870.article
tens of thousands of 3D-printed parts flying
Boeing, meanwhile, has several hundred types and tens of thousands of 3D-printed parts flying on its aircraft. These include 3D-printed parts on 10 different military and commercial aircraft production programmes, according to Leo Christodoulou, chief engineer for Boeing research and technology, materials and manufacturing technology.
Read more: www.theengineer.co.uk/aerospace/in-depth/aerospace-takes-to-additive-manufacturing/1021249.article#ixzz3soRKieOf
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/aerospace/in-depth/aerospace-takes-to-additive-manufacturing/1021249.article
Not only TIAl blades
Our focus is on turbine blades, but are we aware of the numerous other titanium parts used in airplanes?
And the way AM can be used to reduce the total weight of those planes.
http://www.vsmpo.ru/en/pages/Aviastroenie
Is HP Thinking of Buying 3D Printer Maker?
Now that the split is in effect, the HP’s lackluster performance in the printing business has become more naked to investors. In the past, HP was able to rely on its growing enterprise business to compensate for the declining printer and PC business. Perhaps in a move to retain investor confidence amid a bleak outlook for the core revenue stream, HP might speed up efforts with regard to the 3D printing segment. And what a better way to do it than to get a head start by acquiring an established player in the industry rather doing it on a standalone basis.
http://www.bidnessetc.com/58197-3d-systems-corporation-is-hp-inc-thinking-of-buying-3d-printer-maker/
RE short sales
0,46 of all shares are shorted (almost nothing)
In other words; the market does not expect the price of the shares will drop
see:http://www.fi.se/Folder-EN/Startpage/Reporting/Short-Selling/
[Published net short positions]
In shortanalytics you will see the percentages of the special products (not shares) in long and short positions.
Positive technical breakout AM3D
https://www.google.com/finance?q=ETR%3AAM3D&ei=XONSVrG8OozqsAGb8ZbYCw
Germans are very focussed on technical signals
All eggs in one basket?
Companies like GE don put all their eggs in one basket...
The risk to let one company produce special parts for an advanced machine, with no other options when that company fails is a risk they will not accept.
Probably they will invest in know-how to be capable of producing Arcam machines, when Arcam fails to deliver.
Or they just buy a major part of that company (50% plus)
p.s. In the Netherlands is the saying "don't bet on one horse"
RE Mauser96 Licensed production
What I ment was; A company like GE is capable to produce the printers under license of Arcam.
In case of a large demand in numbers (500 printers within two years?), or a demand in specialised printers for a specific job.
Don't you think licensed production is a possibility?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Licensed_production
My thoughts about the AM sector:
How difficult is it to produce a 3D printer for companies like GE / Siemens / DMG Mori Seiki etc. after they have seen it and taking it apart?
Probably a few months, and probably they are able to produce it with better accurancy.
What is withholding them to do so?
Rights to to, patent rights?
What are the costs of these rights, and what is their value over years?
Is it worth investing in design and production of machines we think are useful for our business, and pay for the patents we are using.
Or, is it wiser to work in close colaboration with the leaders in that selective market we are focussing on, because they are a long way ahead of us in technology?
Or,
it's just better to buy the whole company because their knowledge is years ahead of our knowledge.
For plastic printing I see a very diversified market.
Producers for desktop printers grow like corn on a cornfield, and could all be a winner in their selective market. Not interesting for private investors like me.
In the professional plastic printing business Stratasys is probably a year ahead of the market (multiple colors / stifness), but has a lot of competitian.
So not interesting for a private investor.
I believe value in AM for investors is hidden in patents that will last for several years, advanced software optimalisation for printers (that will last several years), and accecpted potential advancement in a specific market of AM by a company we all see taking a bigger share of this market.