From now until the cash conversion day there is still small possibility for Takeda to back out from the deal. For example, what if Takeda reviewed the recent SEC filing and found out Araid management wasn't honest and played hardball to boost buyout price. Or FDA requests more data for Briga and extend the approval deadline beyond 04/29/17, etc.

By waiting until the cash-out day, it will cost the shorts only $.20 -> $.30/share, but if Tekada backs out from the deal, shorts will win the jackpot. There is no need for them to cover now.

Just as most of us didn't expect the BO could happen so quickly at this very generous $24/share cash offer (while Briga still hasn't been approved by FDA), the unexpected could happen again and lead to Takeda backing out from the deal, then SP could drop below the privious level under $13/share

Good lucks to those are still holding shares for pennies.

Latest short interest:
1/13/2017 , 23,605,983 , 32,042,457 , 1.000000
12/30/2016 , 31,830,948 , 2,791,096 , 11.404462
12/15/2016 , 32,405,235 , 4,537,777 , 7.141214
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aria/short-interest

Shorts still covered all the shares... Wonder what they're waiting for? Are they hoping for Takeda backing out from the deal? Anyone know how much Takeda will have to pay Ariad for backout? Thx!

Perhaps you may want to take a look at insiders selling before buying MRNS shares

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNS/holders?p=MRNS

No offer ever came from Otsuka; it's was Baxalta who made an "ingenuine" offer just to fence off Shire from acquiring them. It had to be an ingenuine offer, because biotech acquisitions premium typically above 50%, but Baxalta was only 12% which was way too low for Araid management to consider in engaging any conversation with Baxalta.

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/financials/buzz-ariad-soars-on-reports-baxalta-has-come-calling-about-a-buyout

Ariad has been doing great in the last couple days and my holding still intact. I won't sell a single share until seeing the news/announcement.

Wish you all a very Happy & Prosperous New Year!!!

Too bad, without M&A announcement before the New Year, I won't be able to write the $100K check to charity. Denner, please kindly make my wish come true

yes, I did @ $12.25 today :(
should have waited further...

Thanks for the link, Greg

Thanks for the comment, BR.

Sorry but I simply tried to come up with a reasonable figure/price, and absolutely didn't mean to "bash" as I'm still heavily investing in Ariad.

Hi BR,
Do you really know how Congress and Trump plan to "modify" pharma and medical costs? I don't think you do, and you probably pick this stuff from some silly twitter and posted it here without knowing what's really going on.

If you want to know about Trump plan on "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again”, I would recommend you to read the following article:
http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-future-of-the-aca-week-3-the-trump-15719/

while reading, please pay attention particularly to the phrase "follow free-market principles" repeatedly highlighted throughout the article.

And you do know what "free-market" economy means, and how the value/price of a product being determined in a "free-market" economy, right? it's based on the interaction of supply and demand (details can be found via this link)

All of the above means that the whole biotech industry will be back to the Pre-Obama era, which means no government regulation nor any imposition how how drugs being priced.

To me, there are many things much higher priority for Trump to do "To Make America Great Again" rather than spending time on healthcare reform. The very first and most urgent thing Trump needs to do is to stop China from stealing American technologies. It took us over 20 years to build our stealth advanced tactical fighter F-22, F-35, but it took the China less than 10 years to build their J-20, which is a partial copy of our F-22 by adding the small front-wing and the stealth technology which was stolen from our F-35 program. In the last 20 years China has built a mighty army of hackers with their sole mission is to steal technologies from America and the West, and we must stop this immediately before it becomes too late...

Hi BR,
just curious on how do you come up with this $16 figure?
I'm ok with $16 if it's sold within this week, but as the BO is dragging on longer they will have to pay higher price to own Ariad.
After Briga approval, the price they will have to pay is at least in the low $30s/share.

I notice you keep on changing your BO price target as Ariad share price changed. If I remember correctly, when Ariad being traded in $9s range, you're asking $13/share, now being traded $12s range, you're asking $16/share, so I guess if for some reason, Ariad share price jumps to $16/share tomorrow, you're going to come up with a BO price at $20/share?

Sorry but I hear a different (very interesting) story that Ariad was founded by Biotech King, David Blech, not out of MIT lab.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/06/business/david-blech-a-biotech-king-dethroned.html

I'm unaware about this, but if this is true then hope that BPs are seeing this and will offer to acquire Ariad now rather waiting until after April/17

completely agree with you on this.
If any M&A to be announced in the next 2 weeks between $18 -> $23/share, I'm going to write a $100K check to IRC (my favorite charity) and will post the proof of the donation on this message board.

30K shares in only 20% of my holding; I'm still very long in ARIA.
just try to take advantage of the stock price fluctuation.

it's no problem for me at all as I always meet all the requirements and restrictions. With high short interest and lot of potential for share price going higher, ARIA is definitely one of the best stocks for day trading while holding your core position.
Still not buying shares back yet as December option expiration is approaching, there is possibility for buying those shares back in the low $12s

I sold 30K shars at $12.70 and had an order to buy those shares back @ $12.30. If the order is not executed I will buy at whatever price under $12.50/share at near the market close.

Whoever came up with that $2 must be correct when seeing CEO Harvey Berger destroying the company by hiring a bunch of his cronies as VPs & directors, burning the company money like crazy while doing nothing...
Your recalling this is definitely a big slap to the face of those worshiping Berger at that time.

How about a prediction on when the M&A to be announced?
I think it's within the next 4 weeks
and the price is between $18 -> $23/share
:)

Thanks for the info, Jbog

it's strange that Wellington acquired 8.9% of Ariad before 09/2016 but still not filing a 13G/D. According Investopedia, they're supposed to file 13G/D within 10 days of the acquisition.

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/Default.aspx?companyid=7040
ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC: ARIA (Nasdaq Global Market)
Enter your Email to Learn More:
Learn More
Form (Filer) Received ( Period )
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 12/08/16 (12/05/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 12/07/16 (12/01/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 11/30/16 (11/29/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 11/18/16 (11/16/16)
10-Q ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 11/08/16 (09/30/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 11/07/16 (11/07/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 10/31/16 (10/31/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 10/25/16 (10/24/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(BOLLAG DANIEL M) 10/05/16 (10/03/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 09/29/16 (09/28/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(BOLLAG DANIEL M) 09/28/16 (09/26/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 09/28/16 (09/26/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 09/23/16 (09/22/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 09/16/16 (09/15/16)
SC 13G/A ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(PUTNAM INVESTMENTS LLC) 09/12/16
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 08/30/16 (08/30/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 08/23/16 (08/22/16)
4 ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC(CLACKSON TIMOTHY P) 08/15/16 (08/12/16)
10-Q ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 08/08/16 (06/30/16)
8-K ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC 07/28/16 (07/28/16)


=======================================================
ARIA
HEALTH CARE 17,140,492 $ 234,654,000 0.06% 0.00% 288 17,140,492 New 8.8943% Q3 2016

Wellington Management Co LLP 14,617,965 $ 200,120,000
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT CANADA LLC 66,425 $ 909,000
Wellington Management Hong Kong Ltd 4,243 $ 58,000
Wellington Management Australia Ltd 90,472 $ 1,239,000
Wellington Management Singapore Pte Ltd 227,660 $ 3,117,000
Wellington Management Co LLP,Wellington Trust Company, NA 1,721,740 $ 23,571,000
Wellington Management International Ltd 411,987 $ 5,640,000

thanks for the info, mrplmer

Really? I guess this must be before that crash in October/2013, otherwise, it would be insane for worshiping someone who destroying the company.

In case you're unaware of this, but Wellington is now the largest institutional holder with 17 million shares newly purchased between June and September/2016. If anyone have access to Edgar, please check the 13G filings to see exactly when they purchased those shares at which price/share? But I think ARIA average price/share during the 3 months period is around $11/share:
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP 09/30/2016 17,140,492 17,140,492 New 217,341

Also, Fidelity is now the second largest share holder after they added over 9 million shares during the 3 months period:
FMR LLC 09/30/2016 15,204,103 9,074,047 148.03 192,788


http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aria/institutional-holdings

Either paying $3s billion for Ariad before Briga's approval or twice of that amount ($6s billions) after Briga's approval. Do you know which option great CEO would typically select to do?

Without large amount of short interests, ARIA would be traded @ $18s/share now.
Simply take a look at EXEL (currently being traded at above $5 billion marketcap with only $125M revenue,), it's obvious how under value ARIA share price is, while being at traded at $2.7 billion marketcap with over $190M in revenue.

EXEL continues to outshine ARIA again today, and shorts are totally in control of ARIA share price movement.
I really hope that Denner sell the comanpy now even under $20/share, just to get all the shorts burned.

As long as Mr. Denner is not making any transaction (buying/or selling) in his Sarissa hedge fund during his tenure at Ariad, he's doing fine and not violating any law.

Oops! didn't know above this.

Just covered my shares at $5.55

THANKS!

Set stop loss (to cover those 1K share) at $8.50, in case it's running out of control.
I'm confident this baby is going to drop back to $4s level again.

Just shorted 1K share @ $5.60 just for fun.
will cover at the end of the day to see how it goes

some maniacs are trying to push share price up with multiple hundred K shares purchased at way above the Ask price. I think they're going to fail again this time.

Folks, time to sell for gain and will buy back lower.
But don't short if you don't own share; it's too dangerous to gamble on this one.

Folks, time to sell for gain and will buy back lower.
But don't short if you don't own share; it's too dangerous to gamble on this one.

What do you think of the next entry point?
I think if it drop under $4.30, it will fall below yesterday low. I set a buy @ $3.85

I sold at $4.85 (not the HOD), and purchased at $4.12 (not LOD);
anyway it's pure luck.

DRYS - 09:48:01
Sold 540s @ $4.84 - Total: $2,613.49
DRYS - 09:48:01
Sold 360s @ $4.84 - Total: $1,742.33
DRYS - 09:48:01
Sold 3000s @ $4.843 - Total: $14,528.33
DRYS - 09:48:01
Sold 1000s @ $4.85 - Total: $4,844.79
DRYS - 09:48:01
Sold 100s @ $4.85 - Total: $484.97

Yes, if it moved above $4.85 then you're correct; it's a poor trade.
But I'm doing very well so far.

Sold all 5K shares purchased (at $4.12) yesterday for over $3.5K gain.
Will buy again @ $3.85. For this baby will definitely heading lower once it goes into the red zone again.

Sold all 5K shares purchased @