Factors as I see it in something brewing...

1. Extremely low volume with big players and smart money who have and are accumulating. The pressure inside the chamber is building everyday and they know that paitence is the key. Look at the chart right now with a very tight range and low volitility.

2. Hugh short position and IMHO they don't know how to get out of it without a lot of blood and being in a brutal short squeeze. Perhaps we will have days when there is a bear raid of sorts but that is part of the game albeit sometimes hard to watch and sit through. "Deal with it", is my approach as part of a potential payoff. Risk is inherent in any position.

3. Almost a news black out with very few PR's (and those are relatively insignificant) and the strange antics with the Annual Meeting. It's almost like Ariad doesn't want to muddy up the waters with the usual PR and Investor information because it would just be a distraction. Surely, if they wanted to promote they could and they are not.

4. For one, Sarrissa has a lot of their eggs in the Ariad basket. That said, Denner has to look at this with focus and extreme energy in maximizing his position and result. This is a pro who knows what he is doing as exemplified by all of the steps he has taken since late 2013/early 2014 when he got in big time. Follow the money, add on the dips (if you can) and watch with patience.

5. Continually we are getting more and more confirmation that both the existing products and potential products are and could be serious players in generating results and revenue downstream. Yes, for sure this is a grey area that is an art and not "science" (no pun intended) per se. Denner has to be pitching this to suitors as much more than the simple present value but rather as present value of something much bigger with a lot of potential.

I am sure that SS, Sully, JP and others can add other factors too in an analytical way that will support and add (or subtract) to/from these thoughts. Much thanks again to those who post with logic and no false or continually changing agendas. I admit it....I am long but with optimism and hopefully logic with the situation as we know it.

SS, Sully, etc... Not a lot to add here except patience is the key and follow the smart money. Timing is difficult to predict but as you have elaborated the huge relative short position can NOT cover at these prices as the bear raid yesterday indicates. IMHO, this volume is nothing compared to what is coming when we will see panic covering. Has to happen, as it will be pure supply and demand. Important news will be the trigger. IMHO

Huge volume spike at the close....= accumulation (loading up) to me. Do you know the amount of the trade? That along with a 16 cent trading range during the day means to me instituions/smart money are playing dead so that at the last moment (on the cheap) pouncing. Is that what you were seeing too?

Absolutely correct.... very low volume today reflects few buyers and few sellers, both. That coupled with a very, very high level of shorts, institutions accumulating, a ranging pps as of late, and a propensity of news and MA alternatives "might" indicate that a break out is coming. Just curious, does your post imply that you think interest (lack of buyers) in Aria is waning? IMHO, (and it is only an opinion) I think that a breakout will occur in the next month or so. Literally, we (retail investors) are in the dark except for some news items, history and patterns of supply and demand in how the stock is trading and the make up of shareholders (who own the stock) and shorts who borrow it (unless of course if it is a naked short). Like everyone else here, I am just trying to read the tea leaves and realize others might have a different interpretation.

To be more exacting....."few sellers"....the point was low, low volume.

It's 12:20edt and 789K in volume for the day so far = NO Sellers = A time bomb for the approx. 44M Shorts needing to cover. I would not want to be in their shoes.

I think that is is important to look at situations from another point of view. With that, I would be interested in an analysis and/or opinion from others on the board (in the know from the biotech sector) in how a big pharma company would first value and then assimilate Ariad into their fold. Sure, they would look at present value in a pure numbers sense, however somehow Ariad has developed the talent and expertise to develop 2-3 drugs that no none else has accomplished heretofore. That said, they (big Pharma) might look at that aspect with a lot of value and hopefully would not dismantle an entity (Ariad as is) that obviously has developed, built and offers a lot. With these thoughts, I would absolutely defer to those in the know and how biotech buyouts have worked in the past along with how big Pharma is looking at the past and present scenarios. I don't mean to hog the space here with all of the recent posts.....just on a roll with questions and possibilities that might be both interesting and historically logical.

Vid....great point with the psychology, ego and making a bigger name in a very small and elite club for Denner. IMHO, he will not blow the opportunity and he has all of the attributes and experience to maximize the potential. Sure, we all can't wait but I am willing to wait for top dollar.

TC...thanks and I would be very interested in what you find out as history is always good to review and take into consideration, albeit that each situation of course is different. As I have expounded before, I believe that at this point it is more art than science (referring to the butyout) and that the finer points of the science/trials/outcomes (even though extremely important in evaluating the whole picture and getting us to this point) are not the negotiating points per se. Again, IMHO

SS and others...Thanks for the input and a very logical analysis of situation. Right now, I believe with this tight range and "controlling" of the bid/ask it's like a temporary standoff. I can't believe that the smart money is selling anything at this point and therefore can understand the low volume and ranging pattern until some significant event lights the fuse. For sure, the psychology is interesting and seemingly is a classic setup (I do believe rare especially with the amount of shorts, Denner taking control along with his shareholder value expertise and cash position of Ariad along with the Buy Out climate). So it's good.....no one has to be in a hurry, there is a good base to work off here ($8-9) and when (not if) it happens many here will see the (IMHO) exceptional return on the opportunity. IMHO...Note: I don't want to beat a dead horse here but I do think it is valuable to support each other with logical and real situational opinions/analysis. Thanks

SS.....What is your take in why the huge short position is not covering by now? Do you think that they are short at a higher level? The probablility of this going down significantly is very low vs. going the other way. Therefore, why in the world are they risking that type of positioning? Yes, I am sure that they are somewhat hedged too (being both long and short) but not to this degree. Therefore, IMHO there is a huge risk taking pool out there that could blow up for them. OK, ok maybe they are stuck but it's a lot better to cover at $9 vs signifcantly higher. Also, just doing the math with the float, institutional positions and shorts (borrowing shares) there would appear to be a very significant "naked short" position too. I am sure that the board would appreciate your thoughts as you seem to know a lot about the trading aspects and why we are in this tight range as it continues. IMHO, it's not something to be upset about because I think with this stock patience is the key and Denner is playing it for all that it is worth. Step by slow step, tick tock as you have written before. Thanks for your valuable input. IMHO.

Thanks Sully for clearing it up as my estimate was a ballpark number based on some information that I saw here. Nevertheless, no matter what the actual level for Sarissa, at this point they are looking at a significant muliple of profit from that base. As SS has referenced several times...."tick tock" the wheels are turning in many venues right now. The majority of people looking at this board are retail investors (longs) and it's like the minnows swimming behind the sharks looking for a morsel. For sure, I am good with that.

Thanks too for your perspective on the science and product aspect as granted that is your forte. In no way would I or could I disagree with your analysis and certainly have to respect your point of view. That said, it sounds like we might be splitting hairs here for the buyout range ........for you it would be $14-18, for me $20-28 and for SS $24 and above. The 6-10 bagger reference was definitely a SWAG and thanks for understanding that. The only thing that I want to point out is that when Denner is negotiating the BO (which he is IMHO), it's not all about science, products, PE, and other pertinent facts. All he needs are two or more serious bidders and then pure analysis and logic may not prevail Nonetheless, thank you as I appreciate your thoughtful response as I know from your previous posts that you have quite a history with ARIA and know the landscape better than me with some baggage (both good and bad) attached. JMHO.

SS....thanks also for your logic and perspective as the jigsaw puzzle is put together. Like you, I appreciate this aspect so much.....JMHO. IMHO, at this point for Denner this situation is why he is paid the big bucks and it is his "art'" and "theatre" that will get it done as all the pieces are being put into place. I do believe that a LOT is going on behind the scenes right now......no news (check), volume is drying up (check), trading in a very tight range (check), for the technicians a beautiful cup and handle on the daily chart forming since late March (check), huge short interest stuck (check), two hot products and the mystery of more science to come (check), a white hot MA Bio Tech sector environment (check), etc, etc. In other words a perfect "storm" and rare setup and opportunity.

Since late 2013 until now, there are so many pieces that are ready to be put into place. For Denner, I think he is in at an average of between $4-5 and with 30-40% of Sarrissa at stake. With that, I would think he is looking to get out in a 16-20 month period which is about now and in his vernacular a likely 6-10 bagger in return. He is part of a "club" (BioTech) where they all know what is going on and what is at stake. Therefore, stay tuned. JMHO here. BTW, I appreciate so much both the "investors" and "science" posters on this board for they have provided so much valuable information for months and months. Thanks.

By the way, I am just not pumping this. I would love to hear especially what SS has to say too about the entire picture here.

I would think in the mid to upper 20's. I say that because prior to Oct 2013, ARIA was trading in the high teens, low twenties. That said, the problems have been eliminated, new products developed, better distribution, a hotter BioTech MA Market, and Denner on board. Follow the money, he (Denner) knows what he is doing....this is a professional money manager and runs a BioTech Hedge Fund who has done this before with the best in the business. This is his number 1 holding in Sarrissa for a reason. Of course this is an opinion and just that as an amateur retail trader/investor. Like I said..."follow the money" not only with Sarrissa but the recent accumulation too by others.

I appreciate the input of the posters who are discussing facts and know both the fundamental and technical aspects of the situation. I am long and own a significant (for a retail trader/investor) number of shares since late 2013. The following are my observations, opinions and thoughts:

1. Denner is going to maximize shareholder value sooner rather than later especially with the MA climate going on in the biotech sector. As someone has written "strike while the iron is hot". With that, I would think that he is currently "shopping" the company to more than one potential buyer who wants the science and also as an adjunct to their current distribution system. It makes a lot of sense to a big company who wants an instant product for all the reasons so many here have stated.

2. As SS has observed, this is trading in a range with a LOT of short positions out there who are in hot water. Look at the ranging pattern over the past few weeks just waiting for a breakout that will start a short squeeze in a big way. Also, when significant news hits (the molecule, Japan, approvals, expansions, etc) that may be the impetus to get this to a decent pre-buyout level. I am hoping for a level to be in the high teens prior to a buyout. I strongly believe that Denner knows what he is doing in a big way and will not blow maximizing the opportunity. Getting to the high teens as a platform to the next step is not out of the question because it is "charted" territory where the ARIA has previously traded.

3. Most of all, the science coupled with the events of the past two years along with a strong cash position (short term) puts a negotiator in a very strong position. All we need are two serious bidding buyers who really want the products and methodology to develop new products and we are off to the races. I stronly believe that Denner is the person to conduct the auction. I would not want to be sitting across the table from him if I really wanted ARIA. It's an art and some theatre not a science at that point.

Again, I appreciate all that post facts and what is real. Of course, I am long and have a vested interest yet I only see a rare opporunity in the making. Thanks for listening.

I have not idea.......do you or anyone else?

StockSeek or another informed poster, you may know this about the technical part of trading?

Ok, there are 45 million shorts out there who have "sold" and now need to cover by "buying" shares. So today for example volume should be close to 10 million by the end of the day which reflects transactions involving both a buyer and seller. So, with good news, the prospects of the pps going up and a consensus of a "buy" sentiment, who in the heck is selling? If I was short, I would be scared to death of my position because the propensity of the pps going up is at least more than an 80/20 probability (maybe more). I would think that the shorts have to look at is as if each day they will either lose more or profit less. Do you agree?

I appreciate so much reading what is posted to this board in a thoughtful manner however I do think that the manipulation of the hft and market makers are ruling the daysrather than the science or management. With that, IMHO the trend is up and there is going to have to be a lot of covering with trapped positions. Who knows what these people are thinking and how might the end game be played? Input about this is appreciated.

This is of course not a perfectly run company, however I think that they have made a lot of progress and that the stars are aligned for very good things to happen in the future. I know that many here are carrying baggage (I have been in this substantially only since early last year) and therefore I don't have the perspective or science knowledge that others have.

Thanks again to all the informative posters here even with the biased slants sometimes. I think that at this point, patience is the key and one has to just watch and hang in there with all the games being played by hft, market makers, hedge funds, and more. I just wish that I knew the interworkings of those games. Insight into this is appreciated.

IMHO, this has nothing to do with the fundamentals, timeframe or anything in the news release. This is all about short positions probably by the MM's and therefore artifically manipulating the stock on the bid/ask action so that they can cover. The big question for me is at what pps are the shorts? Obviously it is a range (any ideas?) and obviously with good fundamentals they will be covered over some period of time. Patience here is the key as they want your shares at a cheap price (where Ariad has been trading in recent months) so that they can cover. My advice is, dont play into their hand. Right now, this is all about trading and not what the Ariad is about.

Technical Question ??.......Maybe SS or Jesspro would know about this?? Who in the world is selling with this news? I know not insiders, not hedge funds and not retail investors (unless they don't know what they are doing and running scared). So with that IMHO, pretty much that leaves the MM's who probably need to buy back to cover their short positions and therefore day trading/artifically manipulating. So if that thesis is true, what is your take on when they will be done covering as for sure at this point they won't allow a short squeeze to happen? Like Jesspro, I am not concerned about the pps today and will wait to let this unfold yet I am curious about your take and the take of others. Thanks for the information that you post along with your opinions too. I am not a scientist and a retail investor who owns a lot of this stock since early last year and have been adding along the way.

This is about a lot of short positions temporaily in conjunction with MM action doing what they need to do first to drive the price down and then cover at a lower pps. IMHO, this has nothing to do with the fundamentals or news or any rational thought process about management, drugs, distribution or future potential. My advice to anyone significantly long (like me) is to hang in there for better days. Patience is the key here because retail investors (like those posting on this board) are insignificant in their ability to control price. The big boys have lined up to go long and they are willing to bide their time to reap the rewards through the advancement of management and/or a buyout. Sit tight, have a drink and come back another day without fretting about the price action today. That's just what it is.....price action manipulated by those who have the means to temporarily contol it. We don't.....TODAY. Thanks for reading my two cents here.