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3900 very possible today on an intraday basis.
Who knows in this twisted environment. All I know is that if interest rates keep going up (which they should) the stock markets will crater. Even with the FED's recent increases and future increases the rate is pretty accommodative as long as the fed funds rate is below 5%.
SPY coming of the intra day spike may have more to do with the FED announcement of another big rate hike rather than Bitcoin.
A pattern similar to the one in mid may is setting up. That one went up to roughly 4200. Let us see if this one can get there. It should.
needs to be near 60
Does not look like it. I am taking a positive close. Today's action probably generated a few margin calls from longs trying to play this bounce.
Bear will have to wait for that much anticipated selloff, probably for another month.
attempting 3780 again. should move past it this time. 15 min turning bullish
What is causing oil to drop almost 10 %
Chances are it will hold 3802 and possibly 3830. Its beginning to crawl back up. The FED will back off from its 0.75% hike next week. 0.5% is more likely.
Robots are controlled by humans, remember that. A robot is nothing more than a projection of the human thinking. This robot is called the federal reserve.
Not only can the fed not do asset purchases but they have committed to reduce assets starting the month of June.
I think here is how they got that 3815 number. They showed a chart from the 2020 lows (2192) to the 2022 highs (4818). I am thinking they are talking about a retracement of the rally from march 2020 lows to the recent top this year. see below if it makes sense.
4818 -2192= 2626
2626 X .382=1003
4818 - 1003 = 3815
So a key Fibonacci level was breached and yesterday was reclaimed at least for the time being. A 50 % retracement of that rally would be roughly 3505 on a closing basis. A .618 retracement would be roughly 3195.
My point was to mention the possibility of a higher shorting point. I am not going to load up now for a 5% bear market rally.
Exactly my thought
4100 - 4200 is a strong possibility. maybe even higher.
Markets could rally the entire month of July. Surprising everyone. Then head back down to the 3000 - 3200 level for another temporary bounce. 2000 could very well be achieved by next year.
Expect JP to put a positive spin on things in the next meeting.
3850 ne3xt target for today.
Getting ready to crack 3800 to the upside.
Gap has held so far. Tomorrow we move higher?
It all depends on the FED. The snp was pumped to these levels by monetary easing. The snp is at its present levels (down 1000 points) from ATH's, owing to the fear that the punch bowl (monetary easing) is going away. The Fed has indicated that it wants to raise rates to about 3.4% by years end and reduce its balance sheet by 0.5 trillion, also by years end. Then continue its balance sheet reduction by 95 billion a month till it reaches pre 2008 levels. This combination will not let the snp anywhere near the 4K level.
Higher interest rates will force companies out of business.
Just look at the long term fed funds rate chart. As the rates were declining thru printing, the snp started its move higher in the early 80's. Back in the early 80's you could invest 100K in CD's for a fixed return rate of 15%. Now for the same amount one will be lucky to get 1.5%. These crooks eliminated the competition for the stock market by reducing the rates.
So the question to your answer is if the fed wants a responsible fiscal policy and stop this printing nonsense then no. The snp will not reach 4000. If they blink and reverse then of course, sky is the limit.
How do you know this?
considering we have only 20 min left. Your target seems a little unlikely at this point.
Not holding any long positions. This cleaning is getting a little as in "deep cleaning".
Thanks for the update.
Are we headed back up, now that the longs have been cleared.
what is the difference between upro and spxu. Seems like they both seek 3X the performance of spx
Good Point. Bonds are the safest and somewhat profitable place to park your money in the kind of market decline that is being projected over the next one year.
410 is my initial target as well and definitely a resistance to overcome. SPY may get pushed back initially in all probability. However, I am inclined to think that it will get past it on a short term basis. Let us see who is correct.
You are saying 410 is all we get.
I am saying we will get past it before the downtrend resumes.
Nice charting though.
Could actually rally to between 410 - 440, towards the end of July, to really hurt the shorts who jump the gun, before heading to 340 in the fall.
We opened a gap and closed a gap. 4000 just a chip away. Rally all the way to flag day. Looks like the insiders know that there is a possibility that the fed will only increase by 0.5% in July to create a short term rally till mid July.
what is the road map for tomorrow.
end of quarter buying, some short covering. mkts were oversold quite a bit. Could take us to 4100 by flag day.
Good Call. But how is that short working now. I am sure you will say you covered.
I do agree. Nowhat's stuff is difficult to understand and make sense of for trading purposes. He gets offended every time when someone says so. Nowhat should take this opportunity to make his charts more trader friendly with exact numbers printed as future out comes.
It should be past 3900 by flag day.
Looks like we close red today?
What is the new target or sign post?
Yellen said over the weekend that fears of a recession are overblown. Situation under control. I believe they will redefine the definition of the word recession.
You have made some good calls. Including the one for the "fraud market", which most people know by now. Knowing that this is a fraud. The fed can pump it up if they want. They could have a .5 % rate hike in July when everyone is thinking .75 and cause the mkt to rally with their comments that inflationary signals are coming back down. This will in the least cause a brief rally. While the recent .75 % hike was aggressive. Remember the rates are still extremely accommodative.
Any good put options for spxu.