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Someone on this board who is really smart (and sexy) made this reference last week about those waiting in 2009 for that retest .. could be a repeat?
Futures : Russell - .30% SP +.30%
And like clockwork.. there we have it. Afternoon ramp right on time!
Well done mi amigo!
Many said this in 2009... traded accordingly... as lost their shirts.
Imaging surviving a 35% draw down just to throw your money away betting the crash you navigated will repeat
A 15% day?!?
Wouldn’t that trip circuits and halt the action?
Happy trades net..and stay neutral my friend - or maybe just long
Bears are going to get crushed as they keep trying to short for the retest of the lows. Many waited for the retest in 08/09.
They’re still waiting...
Stay long.. stay strong.
Here here!
Sold the other half
STC 4/6 260c @ 1.54 from .76
I like taking profit in a market like this.
Happy trades !
Sold half.
STC 1/2 4/6 260c at 1.22 from .76
Holding the rest for now
Okay.. taking my leap
SPY BTO 4/6 260c @ .76
Continuation pattern repeating itself in reverse? Gap up Friday?
As for the medical equipment by state; I wouldn’t put too much stock in what they say they need. They’re all over estimating to cover their asses. Getting the equipment has become competitive and just like toilet paper they’re trying to hoard it. Would you want to be the governor that ask for way too much, or not enough?
Not a popular take, but ventilators aren’t a cure in the context of COVID 19. Many don’t realize this is life support where one is intubated and sedated (coma). The vast majority never wake up.
67% of those with C19 that go on a vent never come off. This begs the question why we are taking a group of health compromised people who then get a virus which then requires life support and keeping those people on life support? I know it’s a complex issue, but it’s not one sided.
We will literally grow and maintain a population that will require life support indefinitely(?) which will take much needed healthcare resources from the rest of society in need.
Again.. I’m not saying there’s an easy answer here... we just need more data
Exactly my thoughts. It’s not dollars vs deaths. It dollars, deaths and health vs deaths
I think you’d have to remove “new cases” from this analysis and only use cases that haven’t recovered but are older than 2 weeks (to make up a time frame).
Further - look at the data. Of the currently infected (678,563 as of this post) only 5% are in serious condition (34,883) while 643,380 (95%) have mild condition. To assume a huge portion of those in mild condition will die has no data to support it.
We are just finding out about a swath of people that have had it and are just now being tested. To assume that swath which mostly just an archive of previously untested is all not going to recover is a fallacy imho. These people have had it for a while and the condition didn’t worsen for 95% of them.
Could be... or we throw money at it and have a huge second half to the year with a rebound in the econ and trillions in stimulus.
I agree.. think we have at least 2-3x the number of infected that are reported.
If the denominator is much bigger than expected (sure seems to be) then the real death and hospitalization rate is lower than being shown today. We likely have a huge swath of asymptomatic people among us. Either that or it isn’t that contagious and the death rate is high.... which I doubt. The Mayo Clinic has developed an anti-body test to show who has and hasn’t been infected and then cleared.
We simply need more data. The tests coming available will be a big help. J&J has a vaccine that they’ll have in clinical trials this summer and given it’s a virus the results should come fairly quick. I expect that we will have a scaled vaccine for the US by next flu season.
These were helpful yesterday... figured I’d share again today. Good luck today folks.. great day to cash puts and wait for another opportunity.
/ES today's notable levels:
Support is 2477 & 2460. Below and we could see sub 2400
Resistance near 2506 & 2532. Above and we can test 2560
SPX 3/31 (end of the quarter!)
Support - 2575 & 2546. Below that could retest 2500
Resistance - 2616 & 2635. Above could see 2700+
ES coming into bottom value support 2579 area. Bounce into the open possible
Here we go
SPY flagging at HOD. Could see an explosive move into the close.
Bring it boys!
4/1 260c at 5.00
SPX 3/31 2625c at 28.00
Short squeeze could be significant
260
It’s silly.. I don’t care what someone thinks of the president. I get that crap on every media outlet. It’s noise. I’m all set.
We just disagree. Have fun with your drawings.. you found me pal.. I didn’t come search you out.
Cya
Enough with the politics on this board. No one gives a shit how you feel about the president .. positive or negative.
Check that.. I’m looking at 2660 on the SPX today or tomorrow. Then I’ll be looking to buy puts.
I’m eyeing 2660 SPX today or tomorrow m before a turn lower of meaning.. should resolve itself by weeks end (lower). Stalking puts .. maybe 250p ?
Happy trades
Sure, but 260+ is on deck today. No point in getting short here
Glad to see you’re not jumping straight into puts... looks like bulls have some control above 2570.
Stay nimble!
A day for small celebration today
New infection rate down to 1% in Seattle area, 1% in California (northern counties), down single digits in NYC area, down single digits in France, Italy ????
Positive thoughts !
I really hope we take a look at the outsourcing of critical goods after this. It’s a national security threat to have us reliant on other countries for medicines, PPE , medical equip etc.
We need to make a commitment to making these items in the US on a level that makes us independent again.
Half the garbage from China has been sent back for defect anyways.
The denominator coming into shape the next couple weeks will be telling. It can really only get bigger or this isn’t a highly contagious virus (I am not saying it’s not highly contagious) - there are likely many asymptomatic among us.
The 5 min tests will be huge once widely available. Until then I expect the tensions to heighten as the data settles and we undoubtedly uncover more cases
This board lately feels a lot like when Zerohedge launched calling for the end of the world and Dow “0”.
That was 2008 and went on for 12 years. I don’t think I need to remind everyone how the market performed for the decade plus Zerohedge call for the end of it all! Lol
I think more like next flu season.
They also say it does not appear the strains will grow more lethal as they evolve.
“The virus mutates so slowly that the virus strains are fundamentally very similar to each other,” said Charles Chiu, a professor of medicine and infectious disease at the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine.
The concept of getting reinfected is nearly impossible scientifically. Virologists globally disagree with this as a possibility.
I think most here profited from the price action the last few weeks. Perhaps I’m wrong