Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
the snot talking.
TGIN... Thank God it's November! We've gotten out of the descending triangle and now face a series of important resistance lines. We're at the first one right now. It's the highs of Oct 20/21. the next would be the high of Oct 14 at 9800, and then the lows of September from which we broke down at 10370. We look for decisive breaks of support or resistance, using the market's closing price only. Intraday breaks are usually meaningless. It's important to be aware of these breaks of resistance levels as the market climbs because once broken, they become support.
This is exactly what Nick Darvas referred to with his "box theory" in his book, "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market". It's an old book, but the market still trades in ranges, making his theories applicable today. In the spirit of Darvas's teaching, the Dow is now in the 8200/9400 box. The huge range is a sign of the times. A decisive break and close above 9400 would place us in the 9400/9800 box, where 9400 would be support.
We sold off another 1/7th of our longs today, with a sale of DDM at 38. We held off on adding to FXP just yet, as we need a low price to offset the first layer bought at 114.6.
We suspect the market's rally to continue, although that's just a pure guess based on the fact that the market's uncertainty about the elections will disappear next week. If the market does rally, we profit from our net long position. If instead it heads lower, we revisit the bottom of the box with more capital than last time because we've lightened up on DDM twice now, and we've added some FXP.
We put a 200 day moving average on the chart above to show how oversold the market still is. Our thinking is that the bottom is roughly 8000 and the "top" is roughly 11400. The 11400 number comes from the top of the downtrending channel the Dow is trading in... ahem. So that makes the center of its overall range somewhere around 9700. This means we're just below the center now, which means if the rally continues, we'll soon have to start flipping our position to be net short. It's too early, though, to talk about a net short position just yet. We're personally still at a point where we'd be perfectly content remaining net long if the market fell from here. We would in that case start rebuilding our long position on the way down.
We are only up .2% since June 1st, which is by no means an impressive gain. However, we've managed to remain in the game without getting slaughtered through one of the most unforgiving months we've ever witnessed.
maybe lowreys sees something, dont know, I think rates news is out, e is out, ... gdp is out, ... soon we will be focussing on newyear spending... that's the next focus, no id what will be the driver of the market here...
Diesel. From Snot. What do you think ?
You may feel giddy watching the market jump nearly 900 points, but it would be crazy not to use this opportunity to hedge your longs once again. That is, assuming you're long this market at all. The above charts are our favorite ways to hedge against market downside. The chart at the top is an Ultrashort ETF of the emerging markets (EEV) and the chart below it is Ultrashort China (FXP). If you're not already familiar with them, be careful. They make the Dow's recent volatility look like a walk in the park. EEV may be the better of the two, as it moves in a slightly wider range, and is more diversified. A very small amount of either of these can effectively hedge a lot of long capital because of the percentages involved.
We added some FXP today at 114.6, and will continue to add slowly until it reaches the 80's, at which point we would start to buy it more aggressively. If we get a decent rally tomorrow and can get FXP below 100, we would add another layer there.
How do you guys call this surge ? A parabolic Move of never seen proportions. We call it : de beurs ontploft .
Diesel
sbac at 15
not sure chk will pull back. E date announced. Watch 6 month chart of sbac. What do you see ? I'm in at 15.
took my loss at 19 today.
ATHR did well. Good guidance, with caution, like eeeeuh everybody issues.
no, it was a statement. Look at the last hour. Then again, it was all over the board. I shoudl have said "there was" ... On the other hand, we changed to winter time over here, I tought markets in the us were open.
Wahz. Any comments on HLIT cc ? Looks good to me.
Diesel. CHK is getting clobbered. Relentless selling. Some fund dumping again.
it was a buy alright !
Wahz. You bying qcom here ?
does anybody know anything about GOLD ? It's a dollar trade, ok, but it's going down steep. Where is is heading ? Anybody ? Any good websites ? TIA
Here are some interessting toughts
http://snotwheel.blogspot.com/
So where do we go from here ? Crash ? Downside ? When e time is over, everyone will be focussing on the recession theme. Then e will come down next Q. Then the story will start all over. I cannot believe we will not see the lows on stocks we saw on the last downturn. I even think we go lower. Americans have lived on credit so much. The only hope I have is, it is in you genes to consume. That virus will come back. I hope, I hope... sooner rather than later. Basically europeans are more conservative. They save more money. That will kill the economy over here. It will take al lot longer to restore. Eyes focussed on the chinese to help kickstart the recovery. That's what they say over here. Who would have tought ... .
PMCS ? Anybody watching it ?
Think it's csco and capex at ATT related Dick, that what I wanted to state.
Dick this is the reason. Greets. Filip
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and other network equipment makers are expected to report firm third-quarter results, but that may not help their shares fully recover their strength any time soon as investors brace for a weaker year ahead.
Analysts say shares of Cisco as well as smaller, specialized vendors like Ciena Corp (CIEN.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) look attractive after major customer AT&T Inc (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) stood by its capital spending plans to support growing next-generation wireless and Internet traffic.
But with the current economic downtrend likely to weigh on sales in the fourth quarter and well into 2009, the sector may not provide short-term investment returns or even a safe haven, they say.
"While Cisco remains on solid footing, we do not believe the stock is a good place to hide during the downturn," said J.P. Morgan analyst Ehud Gelblum.
A slower U.S. economy and tighter credit could hurt sales of routers and other network equipment, as businesses turn cautious about spending and some small firms could encounter trouble securing financing for big, expensive routers.
"We also expect CEO (John) Chambers to change his outlook on recovery timing from 'late this year or early next year' to at least 'early to mid next year,' if not later," he said, adding that "we simply do not see how Cisco can continue to to see a recovery within the next three to six months."
Chambers forecast in August that revenue would grow 8 percent in the fiscal first quarter ending in October, and 8.5 percent in the following quarter.
Analysts on average expect fiscal first-quarter revenue of $10.30 billion, up from $9.55 billion in the same period a year earlier. The results are due Nov. 5. Continued...
Bought more FFIV going to 30
BRCM is greeen, some stocks r buys !
the smell just turned into a stench in Europe.
OPEC agrees to cut oil output by 1.5 million barrels a day following emergency meeting in response to steep falls in crude prices.
Hmmm, cheeks red now. My bad.
STP pe : 1 ... errr what's going on ? Hedge liquidating ?
you can just smell another crash is coming
diesel. CHK is there where you want it
Looking at VLO here. I like this company.
building positions in NOV and VDSI and FFIV
20 ? Man. That would be something. CHK would trade at 5 .
BRCM did great. But is it a buy ? Hmm
kicking myself for selling DUG.Looks like you're right on CHK
Maybe time for AAPL again.
not sure chk will pull back. E date announced. Watch 6 month chart of sbac. What do you see ? I'm in at 15.
sold it
Bought DUG Diesel.
Bougth cien
diesel, read this if you havent already. http://seekingalpha.com/article/100644-chesapeake-energy-corporation-q3-2008-business-update-call-transcript?source=yahoo
WAHZ
Nokia to make 1.7 bln euro payment to Qualcomm
Saw that ? A bit lower than tought ?
Bought rimm at open