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2xer, I doubt they will raise rates ahead of the election. It has only been done once in 55 years when I checked a few months ago, and that was with Volcker which some believe cost Carter the election. Bernanke doesn't have the moxie.
$SOX Positive Divergence, breakout could = more up for $NDX?
$BTK in an uptrend although it looks like it is topping for now.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$BTK,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]>
I still have that 1/4 position of QLDs open from last monday at 70.12. I put in an order an hour ago to sell it at $NDX 1850. I don't know if we get there before the announcement. Only got to 1846.95 so far.
Blasher I agree. He will probably say that there's no need to rate cut and that 2% is working. Also, there's no need to raise at the present moment since oil has tanked already as well as commodities and they are all correcting so everything is fine and dandy. (Edit although for the ST I am weary of the CSCO guidance. Chambers is always very conservative and I think the $NDX will go lower tomorrow based on what he says today.) I doubt Chambers will say the economy is great people are buying tons of networking equipment.
Gleno, one more wrench... I forgot about the CSCO earnings tonight after the bell. Last two times Chambers warned about slow growth, etc in the conference call and CSCO/NDX tanked the next day. So I am leaning towards a rampo today/rampo after announcement and then tomorrow we drop?? Looks like we may have already started the slim jim on the 5min chart.
Sorry about that, I played with the formatting for 5-10mins and couldn't get it straight. Investorshub just wouldn't take tabs/spaces.
Last 4 FOMC meeting/announcement on $NDX.
Ok, so the last 4 we had major rampos that same day.
Jan 30 announcement (~35pt. rampo then faded into close.)
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
30-Jan-08 1,800.36 1,843.20 1,798.31 1,808.51 2,618,850,000 1,808.51
29-Jan-08 1,812.43 1,816.43 1,792.64 1,807.67 2,160,040,000 1,807.67
March 18 FOMC announcement (~74 pt. Rampo)
18-Mar-08 1,717.04 1,761.05 1,712.21 1,761.05 2,411,630,000 1,761.05
17-Mar-08 1,680.54 1,706.02 1,668.57 1,687.19 2,338,210,000 1,687.19
April 30 announcement (Rampo day before announcement and then ~63 pt. rampo next Day on May 1)
1-May-08 1,921.87 1,980.44 1,921.05 1,980.44 2,344,770,000 1,980.44
30-Apr-08 1,939.12 1,953.59 1,912.81 1,917.70 2,127,390,000 1,917.70
29-Apr-08 1,917.83 1,941.91 1,914.25 1,933.60 1,769,030,000 1,933.60
28-Apr-08 1,920.53 1,936.10 1,917.03 1,923.26 1,724,680,000 1,923.26
June 25 announcement (~50pt Rampo but fadded into the close)
25-Jun-08 1,911.07 1,951.49 1,910.21 1,933.86 2,153,970,000 1,933.86
24-Jun-08 1,906.84 1,926.10 1,888.01 1,903.74 2,195,920,000 1,903.74
Gleno, looks like 200dma is resistance for now. But... Didn't we rally like 50-60pts on the $NDX the last FOMC meeting? I'll have to double check the charts. (Edit may be we slim jim @ 11 AM and get another rampo after the FOMC announces today with the up down up pattern.)
45.22 QQQQ 200dma on the 60min. Watch that for a break. (Edit or potential resistance.)
Back in that bullish falling wedge on the 60min $NDX chart. I'm still looking at 1800 first than possibly 1793ish.
OT - woodfish has his own board although he hasn't been posting much lately. He can also be found on clearstation.com on the _compx board.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=2462
This is his most recent post today on the $USD:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=8766331&usernm=woodfish
Agree, looks like a truncated bullish falling wedge. Break of ~1920 - 5min 100dma and off to the races. (Edit that is 44.74 on the QQQQs. The 100dma 5min has been resistance for most of the day.)
I'm looking to get in around the 60ish level for SDP. It needs to correct a bit. Kind of OB for me to get in. Plus it looks like SDP is forming a handle off that cup. So that is why I am looking around the 60ish level to get in and it also looks like support from an eyeball perspective.
Gleno, I don't know why people would be reading my posts, considering you and all the rest are the gurus, I'm just learning. BTW - I'm not planning on getting into the inverse utils til there's some sort of minor correction, it's too overbought for me at this juncture.
But food for thought on the $NDX 60min. I am thinking we may hit 1800 and possible 1793ish today or tomorrow then back up after the FOMC announcement.
Gleno, I beat you to the punch. LOL...
Yeah it looks like a big H+S on the weekly.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31164141
Gleno, actually they announce tomorrow. It's a one day meeting this month. Ok gotta get ready for work. Check back in later near the close.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
It looks like a chinese water torture on low volume to $NDX 1800. Good support there.
Yup... 60min uptrend line for the QQQQs is broken.
Now looks like QQQQ wants to churn down though with low volume on the 5min. Wouldn't be surprise to see a test of Friday's low 44.40.
Yeah, 5min 3/8dma just crossed, cci curling back up on the QQQQs. May be get to 44.85? Volume has been really light so far.
Gleno, also for FWIW, all the other indexes besides the $NDX (INDU, RUT, MID, SPX) on the daily has that same ascending triangle look.
Gleno, looking at your $NASI chart we could turn back down around the -600 level so that is a key point to watch. I am still unsure whether we have bottomed or we are going to form a lower low.
If we break this ascending triangle, then it will answer my question.
"The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_c
Utilties Weekly H+S pattern? Anyone playing it? 2x ETF is SDP. H+S Target is ~384.
Got this from a guy I use to follow, Saavycharts, but then he left clearstation many years ago and now I found where he posts again.
BTW - Have a good weekend everyone.
http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=5029&mn=25484&pt=msg&mid=5324947
Euterpe,
Is there a reason you're going with Rydex Mutual funds vs 2x ETFs? Comissions are higher and you can't get in/out when you want. I guess I shouldn't be complaining about the 1/4 position trade today.
But I am a bit bummed about letting a +$5 move evapoorate yesterday. I bought a bunch of QLDs on Monday before the close and I sold 1/2 on Wednesday and am still holding over the weekend the other 1/2 which is really now just a 1/4 position. (I'm still in the green with it as I got in at 70.12 but lesson learned is to put a trailing stop.)
Edit - I still fight with myself about putting stops. I guess it's a learning process. 1/2 the times I get stopped out too soon and find the price reversing right after I got stopped.
On crappy low volume. I just sold the 1/4 QLD position from this morning a couple minutes ago. Only got +1.45 for it. I'll roll the dice and hold it over the weekend with the other 1/2 though.
Gleno, that's actually where I put my sell order at 45.22 a couple hours back. I don't know if we will hit it though with the lack of volume. I guess I will find out soon enough around the 15:30-15:45 time frame.
Gleno, FWIW, NERS gave another buy signal @ 13:05 on the QQQQs at the 13:05 5min Bar. Ok... I gotta quit watching. I really have to get some real work done.
Gleno, are you out of your short and flipping to the long side?
The flag on the 5min chart on the QQQQs looks too long to be a bull flag. 30min looks like a bear flag. Still think it's too soon to call a double bottom with this lull/low volume movement. We will find out when the boys come back from lunch where they want to take us.
Interesting read... (Edit anyone think there could be a possibly squeeze on these?)
Author: pcyhuang
"The Most Heavily Shorted ETFs
Fourteen of the most heavily shorted ETFs have short interest numbers that well exceed their respective shares outstanding. The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has a short interest figure that is more than 6 times its shares outstanding.
(My Comment: Is this another form of "abusive naked shorting'? How would the SEC explain this?)" when 675% of the outstanding stock is shorted
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/07/most-heavily-sh.html
If we don't close green today, we may re-test July's low on the $NDX. MAs are starting to coil downwards/rollover on the 60min, need to close around 1850+ to negate that.
Gleno, it sure looks like we're having trouble getting to or past the QQQQ 45 which is the 50% fib retrace on the 5min. Volume is pretty light as usually as it always seems to be a lull from 10:30AM til about 2:15-2:30PM. We'll probably be in a range til the boys come back from lunch.
45.20 on the 5min 50dma looks like the next stop which is close/slightly above the .618 retrace.
Yeah, if I was smart I would've put a trailing stop yesterday when I could not watch the market. Anyhow, I'm definitely watching the volume. There's a lot of big red bars early this morning, now a ramp on low volume. So I may look to exit out soon, including the QLD position that I got on Monday @ 70.12.
Be, went long 1/4 position QLD on the 10:05 5-min bar, preempted NERS 5min signal which was at the 10:25 bar. (Edit - still holding the other 1/2 position of QLD from Monday before the close.)
Gleno, good call yesterday. The candle on the $NDX closed pretty awfully yesterday after that dump around 3 PM. Anyhow, we just hit 1806, pretty close to 1800. I wonder if we go back up to ~1850 again. We've done it 4 times already.
Gleno, good eye for detail. In my haste I didn't notice that the QQQQ chart used EMAs. I tend to use simple/day moving averages as well instead of EMAs. But I also reference the trendlines drawn by JC on the public charts to see if they coincide with my own work.
I am thinking rally into the FOMC meeting August 5. Then I guess I'll see from there since my time frame is a lot longer now then most people on this board and since I can't watch much intra-day I have been looking at closing prices and setting my NDO at specific prices after the market close. Still in 1/2 position QLDs from Monday. If we close @ 75.25 on QLD that will be the 2nd renko up brick printed using 1.75pt bricks.
Gleno, 50dma resistance for the QQQQs. Been a while since QQQQs has tagged the fifty. $BTK has been a tear since early July even though we've had stinky $SOX. Watch out for the positive D on the $SOX though. If the $SOX starts turning back up the $NDX will fly. Ok... gotta get back to work. Will check back later.
10dma on the $NDX just crossed the 200dma. 20/30 may follow if we stay at the current levels end of day today or early morning tomorrow. I think they may try to gun for the gap magnet at 1930ish in the next few days.
$MID just busted through the 200dma. They may park the $NDX at the 200dma which is @1850/QQQQ 45.50. I-H+S on the QQQQ 5min chart started forming around 12:35 PM today. Target is ~45.64.