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How did you choose to 19 as a target date thank you
remember this is a B wave and they have a propensity to for flats and this could be an extended flat which would allow SPY to possibly tag 330 to 340 and tap the upper boundary of the said Megaphone pattern that has been forming fo the last 5 years
The primary wave count is wave 5 up of wave B up and it is close to complete however it could extend
Anyway play the trades carefully
You forgot the devastation to hospitals and the extensive cost of health care to combat COVID.
While our operating rooms were closed down we lost 80% of our second quarter billings, 75 % of nursing and allied staff was furloughed and only now some normalcy is beginning.
Second quarter earnings will be awful but SPY doesn't care.
On this anniversary of D Day let us give thanks to all those who served and gave up their lives to protect the USA and the free world
Never forget what they gave up for us so we can be where we are now
Let us look at the mathematical call for the top of the current B wave
does anybody see this mathematical upside price target for the wave B top, there is the 200 day moving average around 26,300ish (EXCEEDED !) and then there is the Fibonacci .786 (square root of Phi .618) retrace level, at 27,138ish level.
Dow closed at this level Friday afternoon !!
This is no riddle, simple fibonacci.
SPY Puts will reward the longer dated out the better
Now that the DJIA has finally busted thru its 200 day the pattern of the rising bear wedge and EW has completed
Correction can occur at anytime
100 point run up from the bottom may lead to a 100 drop to next
the price action from the S&P 500 in May and June with multiple overlapping waves does resemble an Ending Diagonal, a.k.a. Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, which is a topping formation, a typical pattern seen at concluding Bull market upside trends
On the longer chart SPY has formed a megaphone and it close to touching the upper boundary to tag out and head to the lower at 218
It will take an act of God or civil unrest to make that happen and I wonder if you will be able to spend the money you may earn trading if this happens.
Remember all the banks closing during covid ?
Only ATMS and drive ups were open and they can be closed with no access to money, you can kind of figure out the rest.
Get some 1/10 gold eagles and american silver eagles so you can feed your family and buy gas
If you look at the Elliott Wave charts, we see the Industrials and the S&P 500 are finishing fifth waves of several degrees of various rising trends.
In the EW world, impulsive rallies usually have a lifespan of five waves, so when we see fifth waves concluding, there is evidence that a top is near and a decline is next.
The larger the rising wave trend, the greater the subsequent decline.
And its going to be outrageous and a great trading opportunity
Dow Deva and ForWHAt and a few are positioning for it and like Fitz they will be rewarded
PANDEMIC of 1918 global death was approximately 50 million but unreliable data exists with 500 million infected 1/3 of the worlds population at the time
Pandemic of 2020 global death so far is 400,000 and growing for first phase
Pandemic of 1918 had 3 go arounds and phase 2 was the most devastating
H1N1 influenza A vs SARS-COv
Both are RNA viruses and contain no DNA so they are genetically unstable and prone to mutate.
Chances of a terrible second wave are high and could be the coming black swan that all the king's horses and all the king's men can not fix
The bazooka ammo of the fed may be depleted
Hence the coming dreaded C wave 219 target
Well he asked for worst case scenario and what the Big C way of the super cycle will call for
218 is an initial target
DJIA is looking for 12 to 13,000
This is for the bigger picture
Who knows maybe a failed vaccine combined with a more virulent strain of covid or civil unrest plus a Chinese aggression resulting in more then a trade war
People are uneasy irritable out of work and school looking for solid leadership there is a growing a potentially dangerous social chasm about to reach a crescendo
Yes take your pick
It won’t be pretty and who knows what it will do to the huge debt bubble that will only end with a hard reset that will be generational
Initially target for 218 Spy
I believe some black swan event will precipitate this wave C
There is an alternative wave count that allows this B wave to extend way out until September
This could still be wave 4 of a 5 wave pattern and wave 3 up has not topped yet
However by strict EW criteria wave 3 can not exceed 320
Next week will be informative
Okay so now that SPY targeted and exceeded 320 today then closed below that target one must assume the upward thrust has halted.
We are now invested in SPY 320 puts for 6/12
DIA September 210 puts for the long summer ahead
Long GLD and puts of GDX.
Stocks are overbought, as evidenced by several indicators I track, Full Stochastics, 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators, Put/Call Options ratios, the McClellan Oscillator, and forward looking PE ratios all in the redline
Happy trading next week and be careful, waiting for techni_trend algo update but I can guess what the cleaning will be next week
Dow what he explained to me awhile back is when SPY hits an inflection zone, where it could either way he purchases some OTM options in both directions and some ITM options a few points above and below.
Just switched to September 18 DIA Puts at 210 will ride into wave C down that will be sizable drop
Sorry Net but still not buying the roaring twenties scenario just yet
GDX puts and GLD calls to hedge
Top is in for wave 5 up of B up and it was a blow off
Net went to celebrate his conquest
That head press guillotine made him small forture today
Way to go
Fitz you keep predicting a depression and many here find that hard to grasp, recession, absolutely, but the economic environment does not promote a full blown depression.
SPY will be alright in the end
As the global economy restarts many will return to jobs that are going to commence.
These jobs were not lost permanently
Also, the central banks are carefully controlling liquidity so the cards are stacked in their favor.
A second resurgence of the virus may never happen and each day more people that get tested are showing antibodies despite never having symptoms of COVID.
Also, the military involvement happened in 1968 and several other times and did not result in anarchy.
Craziness abounds and when thousands of people openly apologize for not being of color and participatie in demonstrations and don't know the real essence of why they are there then maybe depression is feasible.
Looked at Puts for CMG, very low volume.
Any better way to play the short side ?
I don't have margin
Hey Net Nice analysis !!
By the way what's your handicap ?
Lunar eclipse June 5, SPY near overbought
Look out below ?
ALGO"S look to be cleaning up the longs from friday, expect drop this morning to 303, hope that holds otherwise its on to 301.8
the rule of thumb is 3:1
using stops or limits is a recipe for disaster
don't play short term options if you are unavailable to watch carefully
limit losses to 10 % of plays up to 5 k and live to play another day
option plays are purely statistics so winning streaks are short lived and usually followed by losing periods
for the last 13 years buying Apple options one month before earnings paid for my house 5 times over with 80% winners
Thats all about to change forever
our business was done by 80 % in April May and half of March
No accounts receivable to speak of
running at a loss a
No PPE
the earnings will be atrocious
SPX 1290 would imply total global economic collapse !!
Now 30 million people unemployed, renewed trade wars with China, South America with severe food shortages, racial and social unrest in the USA
May be good fundamentals for initiating wave 4 down of 5 wave move for B up which could truncate and go on for weeks.
China is the wildcard
Just the news of a workable vaccine in phase 3 will send SPY soaring.
The Fed supplied the propellant the cure will be the spark in my opinion.
I am in the medical field, physicians are skeptical about a positive working commercialized RNA virus vaccine, however, patients laypersons and investors will go bonkers.
Take Moderna and Novavax for examples ...
The person I follow is currently long gold via July calls, he believes Metals and Miners are inside a long-term rising trend, with corrective declines along the way.
The HUI Purchasing Power Indicator trig- gered a new Sell signal a few days , so the HUI key indicators are now on a Neutral read- ing.
While the long term wave mappings look Bullish, he is bothered by the Bearish divergences that are growing between the HUI and both its 10-day av- erage Advance/Decline Line Indicator and its Demand Power measure.
So as a hedge He is short miners
He is mostly in cash waiting for the SPY to top then drop
He doesn't advertise but he is up 250 K from an initial start this year of 15K
My bad !
I was looking at May 1 data, things are better but infection rates are starting to sky rocket again, stay well and be careful
I know this contradicts Nets roaring 20's prediction but if a workable vaccine comes along we could follow his mappings to success as well
trade short term patterns has been tricky and I am trying to play gold and miners as well
by the way, the botton for wave C is horrible if it happens and puts SPY at October 16 lows
This may result is some sort of hard reset with a maturation of cryptocurrency or some central bank digital currency bloom
looking for a possible mathematical upside price target for wave B, a Fib- onacci .786 retracement would target 27,140ish for the Industrials, and 3,140ish for the S&P 500.
Upage is not done yet
Nothing in stone about these levels.
Wave 4 down of the 5 wave move for wave B up is close at hand, it wanted to try and test 307 as a starting point.
The drop of 4 could be mild or form a sideways pattern to test 295 to 285.
once complete the final up wave of the pattern 5 of B will propel SPY to 320 or more
I think this is what Big Eli and you are feeling ?
warren the Deva knows her stuff, I agree that there will be a resumption of COVID cases and Covid deaths as the economy reopens.
Daily death rate in New York State is now about 750 per day but data looks to be swinging back up and there are more people below the age of 40 coming down with virus.
This will shake the population into action and many will remain unemployed, hospitalized and or disabled.
This may pour some cold water on the SPY engine temporarily !!
Nice wedge pointing up to 314 !!
So I was driving north on route 17 in New Jersey and I am sure one of the BOYZ passed me doing 90 mph in his bright blue M5 convertible rushing home to his multimillion dollar home nestled in the mountains of Tuxedo Park !!
Rushing home to close his calls no doubt before Trumps speech
I knew it was one of the BOYZ cause his plate read BUYLOW !!
Lots of the boyz live in them there hills.
Hi Dow it’s good to see you posting during trading hours??
I can only say that net called the bottom almost to the penny
I dumped my 301 puts and went in to 301 calls for today
So far it’s been a long battle but I see spy closing in the green
Next week I’ll be more cautious since it’s first week of June and notorious for being a bearish month
the bottom is now in up till eod
confidence level 4/5
Watcher51 what charting tool do you use please?
I use Fidelity active trader buts limited
thanks
You too and lets make some coins today and enjoy the best sporting game anywhere the SPY
TT SPY is looking like it wants those lower targets at 300 !
Dude great work as usual
That looks exactly like our B1 bomber right down to the cockpit windows and engine intakes.
Is there nothing China won't steal or illegally copy to succeed.
Let America do all the decades of research, testing and development then they steal the plans .
Hey !! Isn't that what we did at the end of world war 2 ? arrested the entire group of V2 bomber designers and engineers from the Nazis and place them under house arrest at Wright Patterson ?
Wernher Von Braum !!
Yes, they are now trying to mimic American ingenuity What the HELL !!
By the way, Iran could never be seized by a conventional land battle, USA simply does not have enough troops.
The capital of Iran is surrounded by treacherous mountains to the north and a massive dessert to the south.
Even is the US bombed the country for days on end it would require boots on the ground and they would have to first cross coastal territory protected by the Iranain navy made up of thousands of light ships.
The coastal landing sites are full of underground tunnels and mines.
no way could the USA conquer Iran.
Only way is by regime changing coup