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IMO we've already seen the results of PR spending. Think carefully on how the tone/slant/spin of the news has changed in the recent past. As I recall, it went from largely negative to less biased to more positive.
And I'm good with that :)
Absolutely the politicians can buy. TBH, that was/is one of the foundation premises of my investment thesis: Eventually the Powers will realize what a killing they can make and will buy-in strong before releasing.
Explaining it to my dad the other day I said, "So basically I've made an investment the results of which are in no small part dependent on politicians' greed. Can you imagine anything safer?"
After a couple beats he admitted, "No. No I can't."
Wow, the blinders are, well... blinding.
"Fannie and Freddie failed in 2008..." Well, actually, they were sold billions of dollars of crap loans by the TBTF banks and then, thru subjective accounting practices, forced to borrow far more than was justified.
"...the government negotiated a deal that allowed it to ultimately take all of the profits of the companies." That's not how I remember it. First, there really wasn't any negotiation (see the Perry lawsuit for details, gentlemen) and second, taking all the profits was certainly not on the table in 2008.
"...this deal seems fair to us... those of us in government should stand firmly with the American taxpayer rather than renegotiate the agreement."
I'm glad it 'seems' fair to you; it 'seems' like a stinking pile of garbage to me. Didn't those of you in government 'renegotiate' in 2012? Does that also 'seem' fair, despite the fact that action was completely inconsistent with the stated goals of conservatorship?
Y'all need to recalibrate your fairness detectors, and while you're doing that, check your facts as your fundamental premises are badly flawed.
They'd only say that because it's more palatable than "We would, of course. We always do."
Worked for me... Weird.
While I agree it's unwise to underestimate your opponent, the issue here is that the grievous mistakes were made in haste at least 14 months ago. They can't be undone, and IMO no amount of spin or revisionist history can change the basic facts that the opposition made several significant tactical errors which are still causing them pain today.
"Don't be a Lemming."
Solid post! Marked you for that.
"Be smart, stand strong in your convictions as a trader and do not let the emotions (euphoria and dispair) control your trading. Charts almost always point you in the right direction. Great or horrible news will trump charts, but I believe great news is far down the road and horrible news is nil. Charts are the perfect way to track emotion in the auction place. Be contrarian. The crowd is usually headed to the slaughter house, at least temporarily." (emphasis added)
Probably too many people trying to read it at one time. Try again, totally worth it.
Not me; bmp is an animal when it comes to getting the news out.
All I can do is shrill out "OMG, you GOTTA read this!
[I love you guys ;) ]
Agree 100%; MUST read.
Stunning, truly. FHFA is SO screwed.
I wrote the post on the FNMAS board, but I got the link from most esteemed and ever-vigilant poster bmp152, who posted it here much earlier today.
Regardless of the source, the content is downright damning, isn't it? :)
Here's the direct link; as a PDF a cut-n-paste would lose the critical highlights and annotations.
It really is outstanding...
Plaintiff's Motion for Discovery
MUST READ!
While the article itself is good, the reaaaaaalllllly good part is the link to the Plaintiff's Motion at the bottom. Take the time to read the highlighted portions and the annotations; Uncle Sugar's in some trouble it would seem...
This is a MUST read!
bmp152 posted this earlier:
Fairholm Likely to Win Discovery
The article itself is good, but it's the Plaintiff's Motion linked to at the bottom that you have to look over. The version presented here is annotated, and shows just how deep and wet a corner FHFA has painted itself into.
Did I mention Must Read! ? :)
Nothing, really, other than I'm also a fan.
Ninjas are cool.
Countrywide was the scapegoat.
Rebecca Mairone, former Countrywide COO
Paige Kinney got 15 years
What being sued has to do with the hedge funds is that in this case it's the government which has committed the crimes.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I heard he's also a ninja.
Actually yes, there are one or two. A dismal number to be sure.
But to use your own method against you, were any bankers sued by hedge funds with deep pockets?
(Hint: no)
I agree with the others; stops are an invitation to the mm to swipe your shares.
The people in question are between a rock and a hard place; either they let discovery occur unimpeded and be revealed as crooks, or mess with the paper trail and either get away with it all or get revealed as crooks.
It's simple crook logic.
Because "I'm making thirty cents an hour to post nonsense I don't understand on a message board," is more accurate.
I agree 100% with this:
"But trust me they are already working on tightening up what they will say and what will be revealed.
All is fair in WAR- we are NOT talking about choir boys. "
But...
Questionable activities went on for too long for them to be able to erase all traces. Any tampering with the evidence is going to leave marks that our very experienced crack legal team will find and exploit. This in turn will weaken Uncle Sugar's cases, and we will Win.
Strong hold.
Consider the implications of this!
Bernanke Set to Make Legal First
Former Fed Chief Will Give a Deposition Thursday in a Suit Over the AIG Bailout
Marketwatch article
This makes an FnF deposition a certainty; things are going to get really interesting around here.
Discovery.
On the one hand, it's like Christmas.
On the other, it's like flipping over a rock in the swamp- there are going to be a lot of slimy characters wildly scrambling to elude the light.
I like it.
Might need a couple episodes to really cover the crazy intricate detail though; call it "180 minutes."
Or turn it into a miniseries.
Not to mention the politically motivated worst-case accounting tricks used to puff up the draws. At one point Treasury (?) was predicting $500B in losses possible, therefore the loan-loss provisions were raised and the Enterprises needed to draw more to ensure they "had adequate capital".
Revisit that, and we'll be way ahead.
I'll take Door Number 3, please.
I love green santa.
Yeah, kind of like "Don't make us embarrass you in front of everyone..."
Shoutout to KylieM
Hey, get youself on detearing's list and come to Vegas; I definitely owe you a drink or 10.
Respectfully,
fc
"There is one scenario where I don't see this working out."
Well c'mon- spill!
Yeah, that guy was a whack job. Smart, but a little off kilter.
Europe... you're like Mark Twain (rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated); happy about that!
Ditto- apparently bad link.
No worries- I just like for people to be aware that Uncle Sugar can't simply demand conversion at pennies on the dollar. I hold a substantial (for me, not for some of you shooters ;) ) position in FMCKJ and chose that one in part because of the limited call windows.
For a long time the prefs were the safer bet (and potentially still are) but once Corker reversed himself and publicly acknowledged that the shareholders would likely have to be dealt with I doubled my common holdings. So far I'm feeling pretty damn smart...
GLTA!
"...forced conversion to common for those not taking it..."
FWIW, FMCKJ is not callable until 2017 and would require 66% of shareholders to agree to amend the prospectus. I'll take RV plus divs or Uncle Sugar can kma.
ACAS is now/still ~25% of my total holdings. I did lighten up some, but their finance situation is as good as it's ever been. ECAS is appreciating, all their debt has been refi'd at lower rates, and the BLTs which were preventing a reorg are all paid off. They're still serious, and I expect quite a bit from them over the next 18 months (though to be fair I've been saying that exact thing for at least 4 years). My latest score with them was 300% on an options trade, but unfortunately the initial buy was small enough that the overall impact wasn't much. A recent poster on the YMB noted that there's usually a rise in price after earnings that later turns out to be buyback activity, and that once this activity is over the price softens again. Insofar as I've paid close attention to the stock since '08 I'm anticipating more options trading; the stock seems to always have some sharp downturns every quarter, and indeed, as management are buying back, they don't do much to prevent it. That's an options opportunity.
As far as the GSEs go, I'm in deep- over 30% of my total holdings. Recently when Corker publicly reversed his position that private shareholders would get nothing I doubled my common holdings; been good so far :)
Oh, SO sweet. We could turn them into garish medallions to wear at the victory celebration; how awesome would that be?
Nevermind :)
Any more info on this Waters/JPM connection?