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EDVAcourt post on YMB
VRNG v. GOOG: It's Over
JMOL was the only thing left for the Judge that could break VRNG's back. Look for at least $500M to be added to Google's tab but more than that settlements can proceed in earnest. To the people that have waited the worst is now behind you. Now it is just a matter of how much Google will pay. Gotta love it!
Maybe but Vringo isn't going to base settlement on what the stock price is so it is irrelevant
Yes that's correct. I always expected Google to settle once JMOL got denied now they have an incentive why let the judge increase your penalty Google will seriously consider this option. Does Vringo have enough lawyers lol they are in negotiations all over the place ....
The judge doesn't need a trial he can compensate Vringo by increasing the rr rate its the same dollars if not more in the end.
This drop is to allow the shorts to cover, the Judge will now rule on rr probably 5% will go higher once people understand this
3.43 is the big one that is the 200 day moving average a close above that would be really bullish
Really watch.....
Yes thanks for your analysis, this would be a consideration for sure.
Yes I can point to several examples of stocks with similar %short floats 25%+ . There is Gamestop which went from $16 -$28 (75%) also Green Mountain $25 - $57 (128%) Zillow $25 - $55 (120%) Netflix $60 - $180 (200%) and the stock I am most familiar with having purchased it near the lows Blackberry $6.30 - $17.90 (184%). These are some examples of high short floats and the corresponding moves. What must be factored in however is the perfect storm developing here. Besides the high short interest Vringo is in a strong position in all their relationship with their larger rivals Google, Microsoft and ZTE. An excellent article came out today on seeking Alpha by Patent Plays titled : Vringo May Be Vetting A Buyer. He makes the case where all three can propose a buyout of Vringo. His conclusion is as follows:
Conclusion: Vringo has options
They have 500 Nokia patents to work on, plus Quantum Stream and the VTIP recent partnership. Plus there is the mysterious Lang who is apparently working on something in Israel. There is also Yahoo and Facebook. This story is just getting interesting. BTW under your scenario Vringo should be trading over $10 ....
I know I just wanted to highlight the most probable market outcome here. It was not meant to diminish your input. I simply want to put the focus where it should be. You cannot cover this many shares in a orderly fashion and no one can make any reasonable argument other than short bs which states that all the longs will simply sell and go away. We just witnessed a $2.70 to $3.60 move on a potential settlement with MSFT, that should dispel this myth.
Of course my comment implies favorable rulings. I think the match will be JNOV or JMOL denying Google their ability to stop this train. Once this ruling comes in against Google, they are cooked. The shorts are hanging their hat on this I am sure, it is a long-shot, not impossible but highly improbable. This judge will not over turn a jury verdict, there is no evidence to support that position. Whether JJ approves a royalty rate of 3.5% or 5% which I think is likely the horse is out of the barn at that point. I have seen situations like this before, shorts are confident until they aren't. This will not have to be debated too much longer as I feel finally rulings will come. Today was an important but minor ruling the one I highlighted earlier and of course the rr decision will move this to a higher path. Let's not forget the Microsoft news is now on the clock and there is no negative outcome there. Lots of potential positives can come from this news. Finally I said it earlier but it bears repeating. The ZTE news is excellent as it really pressures them in all their markets. I do not expect ZTE to pursue defense under the circumstances.
Just wait for Sergefro to yell timber and buy ...always works for me......
ok... noticed a big 100k order filled @$3.00 and now price back over $3 , also noticing aggressive and multiple shorts on every board, I take that as a contrary indicator, agree with FOX , news is closer than we think.
Longer than anyone expected. As someone in the legal field can you make any assumptions as to why?
Your welcome ...
Share prices ahead of an event is not relevant. Check a bio tech stock before a FDA approval and they get trashed , once the approval comes all the shorts run for their lives. Check Blackberry 155 million shares shorted. The company had been shorted all the way from $6 to $15 today and it hit $18. They still don't believe in them 3/4 of the analysts still think it is going out of business. As I said the share price is where it is because we are almost 5 months post trial without a decision and people get nervous and shorts take advantage of human nature. This does not mean they are right. Right now Vringo is a better buy than it was immediately after the the trial. The reasons are many but I will boil it down to 3 reasons. One, the decision by the Judge is imminent and no matter how many shorts show up on every message board this won't change. Second Microsoft wanting to settle with Vringo before the Judges decision is a really strong indication their position is correct. Microsoft does not need the Judge to affirm the jury ruling they know they are infringing on the Lang patents and are working on a settlement. Finally the news with ZTE today was fantastic. They are tightening the noose around this company's neck.
Lawsuit in France and China along with the UK and Germany, basically all their big markets. They are asking for and will receive an injuction on ZTE's products (most likely). The news today also indicated they raided ZTE offices and found evidence of patent infringement. How do you think Vringo obtained the authority to allow a raid without convincing a magistrate that ZTE was infringing on their patents first and then they found the evidence to prove it. ZTE will not be attending their court dates (my prediction) they have a history of settling when they get caught and they just did.
You also said "if Google lost a major case like this" well guess what they did lose and its time to pay the piper.
Google also said they are not infringing, they asked the court to annul this suit three times now and have been denied. Google does not make the law. The jury decided they infringed and the judge will affirm this decision shortly. What do you expect them to say considering their arrogance? If their position was strong do you think Microsoft would even consider settling with Vringo?
Not scammish at all, par for the course for a company in this space and at this stage of development. Do some dd lots of reasons to buy here.
True if this is an April Fools joke please don't bother IBH...if its true and you can verify it then share it.
Post the highlights......
Vringo files lawsuit against ZTE in France
Vringo announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vringo Infrastructure, expanded its global patent enforcement activities against ZTE by filing a patent infringement lawsuit in France against ZTE Corporation, China and its French subsidiary, ZTE France SASU. Vringo Infrastructure filed the lawsuit based on particular information uncovered during a seizure to obtain evidence of infringement, known as a saisie-contrefaçon, which was executed at two of ZTE's facilities in France. The lawsuit was filed on March 29 in the Tribunal de Grande Instance de Paris, alleging infringement of the French part of European Patents 1,186,119 and 1,221,212 by ZTE devices, which are believ ed to fall within the scope of these patents
110,000 shares bidding at $3.46
I suggest you go back and read the lawsuit that Vringo filed agaonst Microsoft. Past and future damages are alleged.
Further there has been no legal precedent set as you claim. The judge himself indicated that Vringo should take it up at appeals court, until appeals are heard, if they will this is a judges ruling only not law.
I don't make price projections generally. I set support and resistance levels and I let the trading dictate which levels come into play and react accordingly. You don't think many shorts will cover just yet. Let me ask you a hypothetical situation. Let's say you shorted 5000 shares of Vringo average is $3.50. Last week when the stock was at $2.70 your screen showed a $4000 profit. Now let's say you turn on your computer Monday morning and the stock is trading at $3.50 a level which you think it can get to and I agree , now look at the profit/loss for your trade and it shows zero with the potential to turn into a loss. How many people will be bold enough to say I will wait? No one knows when rulings will come but they are coming very soon. Do you hold? That is the question we are going to find out next week. I say many will cave, some will buy and short at higher levels and some will not sell at all. It will be interesting. There are lots of shares to cover here.
My friend I have held a core position in this stock since last March and I have a trading position that has been active when appropriate. I can and do trade. Do not misunderstand my words. My core position was established under a dollar last year, pre-merger. There are times like Markman and also August , around the trial decisions etc where you can trade. I have increased my position and have a very low average cost. It is not for everyone I agree. I am very bullish going forward. I was just speaking to those who are experienced it is not for everyone.
The stock has not been held down as you say the price goes down when there are a lack of buyers and that is what we have seen. Discouraged longs, negative sentiment will do that. This (black swan) event from Msft re-energizes the loyal follower and brings in new shareholders. Ask yourself are you more optimistic now about the Vringo story today than you were before the move on Thursday? What you do not calculate is the threshold of pain from shorts. As the price rises the profit figure on the screen goes down. When does that trigger a decision to buy to cover and short again higher mentality? I calculate as the price approaches the $3.50 area this could cause this trigger.I do expect 6 -10 million shares on Monday, lots of people do not day trade and make decisions after the market closes. There will be built-in pressure. Scour the message boards for buzz on Vringo and you will see lots of chatter. This should translate into volume price is impossible to predict but volume is easy.
I disagree, take profits if you have them but buy back (my opinion) this story is just getting started not ending. It is not a FDA approval stock that has just been granted and now there is nothing ahead it is a multiple events, multiple catalysts situation. You are entitled to your opinion I see it differently and trade accordingly
You are wrong about shorts covering. For example I bought and sold 10,000's of thousands of shares 3 x yesterday(plus I know of a group of traders who did the same) and I am sure others did the same here. Your short covering scenario is simply wrong. Shorts still in profits, this will change once the price level gets to around $3.50 plus..$3.47 is the 200 moving average a break above there will catapult this to $4 plus...
My comments are made in light of 15.3 million shares short 26% of the float. There will be corrections but from what level? We have not seen the top today. The high today was $3.27 it should trade higher than that Monday. So far shorts have been deep in profits but the profit position deteriorates as the price rises. Some will not want to want to give up their gains and cover by buying. When you add in new buying that will most definitely come in Monday you will get get a movement greater than normal. After a spike up I am certain some will short this again. I consider this a foolish strategy as there is the great likelihood of decisions form the judge at any moment. This isn't January and in the post-trial motion stage. I doubt very much yo will see sub $3's but if they come many will be ready to buy.
Thank You for your insight. It has been my opinion that the optimal time for Google to make a settlement offer was just before the trial started. This would have saved them a lot of money. Perhaps they felt their case was strong and they could win? As the WSJ article indicates their comment post trial is still one of arrogance, even after the jury decision they implied that ultimately they would prevail. Msft is very different than Google. If you look at their cases they generally are more willing to be reasonable and not apply a scorched earth policy that Google seems to desire.
Next week, we (Vringo shareholders) will get off to a good start. I calculate once the stock price reaches the $3.50 area there will be some very uncomfortable shorts here. I envision rapid movement upwards once we get there.
I have been questioning the lack of movement in the short position for a while now. Most of the position was established by the trial date in November about 13 million actually. They only added 2 million shares since then and the last report was an insignificant 3300. Now this is greed in reverse. Longs get greedy when they should take some profits when it is there and shorts are no different. They got greedy. Having said that it is still surprising that there was not any significant short covering, (I do not believe there was anyway) over a long week-end. This news about MSFT as I discussed yesterday I did not believe that MSFT would ever go to trial, rather I thought they would come to the table once JJ ruled. This tells me (would like your legal opinion Bsav88atty) that Vringos case is strengthened. Microsoft had to come to the conclusion that they are infringing, after reviewing the patents and the Google case, yet Google still denies they are/were even after the jury verdict through their motions. The story for a shareholder will only get better now. The long suffering longs have been rejuvenated and refreshed. There will be a rash of new buying Monday from the week-end scanners and friends of friends etc. Why would a short risk losing more profits by not covering today? The only explanation I find is greed and arrogance.
If Vringo gets anywhere near #3.30 -$3.40 today I expect the price to go parabolic....
I bet this is JMOL denied at least
Vringo starting to get interesting, calm before the storm?
Human nature. Depends on when you bought this. If a recent purchase then not to significant, however if you bought around ruling in November then yo are down around a dollar or more. It weighs on peoples psyche.
Its not the same company at all. Pre-merger the ringtone business was their business who would buy this on that basis alone? Post merger they are now a patent litigation business who retains their ring tone business not the same company at all.
You can complain all you want on a message board it won't do any good. Have you called the company and voiced your concerns?
Finally if you are expecting earnings now before any of the lawsuits being completed then you should really consider why you are in this. No earnings will come for a few quarters at least assuming they can either get a settlement with Google and/or gain some licensing deals.