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The real gold price test is coming next week – analysts : https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-24/The-real-gold-price-test-is-coming-next-week-analysts.html
Excerpt:
Next week, the focus will shift to the debt ceiling debate, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continually stressing the urgency of the matter. Also on the radar will be the progress around the infrastructure package.
Any obstacles surrounding those two events can help support gold prices next week, Moya noted. "There is some concern that it might not get done in time. But, at the end of the day, there should be an agreement on the debt ceiling," he said. "If Treasury yields continue to move higher, that has been kryptonite for gold."
At the same time, if there is an easy resolution to the debt ceiling, the shutdown is averted, infrastructure bill is passed, and the U.S. stocks rally back towards the record-high territory, then gold could see a more significant selloff below $1,700, Moya stated.
Republicans Are Forcing Democrats To Deal With Debt Limit Alone. But Will Dems Be Able To Do It? : https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-are-forcing-democrats-to-deal-with-debt-limit-alone-but-will-dems-be-able-to-do-it/ar-AAOOiFS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
My Comment: So, how is this debt limit going to get resolved ? Any opinions ? If the debt limit cannot be part of the $3.5T reconciliation bill, then the $3.5T bill will have a lot of difficulty getting passed. And at least two Dem senators oppose the $3.5T price tag. I think a short term funding bill will get through Congress which kicks the debt limit can to Dec 3. Through all of the economic turmoil of China's property companies defaulting, especially Evergrande, and the debt limit stalemate, gold just keep falling. That's totally illogical.
Excerpt:
Rep. John Yarmuth (R-KY) said this week that there isn’t time for Democrats to include the debt ceiling hike in their reconciliation package before the United States hits its borrowing limit, a process which will involve amending the budget resolution and getting it through committee, getting instructions to various committees with the legislation to hike the debt ceiling, hours of debate and a vote-a-rama
Why Is Gold Not Rising? : https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/why-gold-not-rising
My Comment:
It's illogical to see gold falling when inflation is increasing, the national debt is exploding higher, stalemate over the debt ceiling, the proposed $3.5T social spending, Evergrande default, and stocks and real estate in huge bubbles. Knowing that gold will eventually rise, does not make the wait any easier. Does anyone not think these markets are manipulated ? Still, the larger the bubbles get, the worse the eventual consequences.
'Possible storm' ahead – China warns local officials of potential Evergrande collapse : https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-09-23/-Possible-storm-ahead-China-warns-local-officials-of-potential-Evergrande-collapse.html
My Comment : $300B in debt is manageable ? Ah yes, in a world where money can be printed without limit.
Excerpts:
The officials noted they are being asked to get "ready for the possible storm," including all the potential economic and social consequences that could come along if Evergrande fails to meet its financial obligations.
"This is not a Lehman moment. A Lehman moment produced pervasive structural damage through the [financial system]. $300 billion is what [Evergrande] owes, and this is all manageable," said Dalio.
Who will blink in the debt ceiling standoff ? -
U.S. default this fall would cost 6 million jobs, wipe out $15 trillion in wealth, study says : https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/u-s-default-this-fall-would-cost-6-million-jobs-wipe-out-15-trillion-in-wealth-study-says/ar-AAOFFux?ocid=msedgntp
My comment: I think Congress should be able to pass a continuing resolution to suspend the debt limits till Dec 3, but unless Dems substantially reduce the $3.5T spending package, they will have to raise the debt limit by reconciliation without any Reps support. Got gold ?
Doug Noland laid out the magnitude of the Evergrande default in this week's Credit Bubble Bulletin: http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/09/weekly-commentary-evergrande-moment.html
Excerpt:
Evergrande owes over $300 billion – to banks and non-bank financial institutions, domestic and international bond holders, suppliers and apartment buyers. It has bank borrowings of $90 billion, including to Agricultural Bank of China, China Minsheng Banking Corp and China CITIC Bank Corp. (reports have 128 banks with exposure). Thousands of suppliers are on the hook for $100 billion.
As a focal point of the global Bubble in leveraged speculation, China’s offshore debt market has ballooned during this protracted cycle. From the FT (Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale): “Chinese issuers face their largest-ever wave of dollar bond maturities this year at $118bn, according to Refinitiv. But even that is dwarfed by the Rmb7.8tn ($1.2tn) of onshore debt maturing in 2021. The latter figure could have big repercussions for offshore bondholders, especially if the restructuring of onshore debt is prioritised.”
My Comments:
Given the imminent collapse of Evergrande in China and the implications for the global economy, I don't think the Fed will be willing to risk tapering. China could add a lot of liquidity, but their sovereign debt is also taking a hit which added liquidity would only worsen that. Gold should benefit from the bursting of the global bubble.
Adding to the economic problems is the debt ceiling and the $3.5T social spending package. I don't think the Republicans will yield on the debt ceiling nor do I think they should. The $3.5T spending needs to be killed and Democrats don't have the votes to approve it. The Dems may have to use reconciliation to raise the debt ceiling, but not before the markets fear a debt defaut by the US government. Gold should be moving much higher,
It's all about the debt. Can the Fed taper with so much debt ? Any economic slowdown would be catastrophic with so much debt. And Biden wants to add even more debt. Let's see how the debt ceiling debate goes.
Social Security Will Not Be Able To Pay Promised Benefits By 2034 : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/social-security-will-not-be-able-pay-promised-benefits-2034
Excerpt:
The entire system is insolvent if one factors in the $28 trillion in debt representing alleged Trust Fund savings that are already spent on something else, especially wars.
Sure, Congress can raise taxes. But for 2021 alone the US will be $4.5 trillion in the hole if Democrats get their way.
And it's ridiculous to believe that even Democrats would opt for Item I: Raise payroll taxes from 3.36 percent to 15.76 percent. Heck, Democrats do not want to raise payroll taxes at all.
The report wastes hundreds of pages addressing options that neither party will do.
China's "Lehman Moment" Approaching: Evergrande Warns Of Default Risk From Cash Crunch : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-lehman-moment-approaching-evergrande-warns-default-risk-cash-crunch
My Comment: Could this be the catalyst that brings China's economy crashing
Excerpt:
When even George Soros cautions that China is about to face a major financial crisis, writing in an FT op-ed that China's property boom is coming to an end, and that Evergrande - the largest real estate company which it over $300 billion in debt has been quietly dubbed China's Lehman - "is over-indebted and in danger of default. This could cause a crash."
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But it's not just Soros - overnight, the company itself, whose plight we have chronicled for the past 12 months while others have only recently woken up to its threat - warned that it risks defaulting on borrowings if its all-out effort to raise cash falls short, rattling bond investors in the world’s most indebted developer.
“The group has risks of defaults on borrowings and cases of litigation outside of its normal course of business,” the Shenzhen-based company said in an earnings statement on Tuesday. “Shareholders and potential investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in the securities of the group.”
Judging by the continued selling of both Evergrande bonds and stocks, consensus agrees. Yet when faced with the task of cleaning up after what would be a huge shock to the system - and at $300 billion, Evergrande is orders of magnitude bigger than Lehman ever was - will China blink, or will Soros be right?
'Parabolic Gold' - John Paulson Warns "Inflation Well Above Expectations Is On Its Way" : https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/parabolic-gold-john-paulson-warns-inflation-well-above-expectations-its-way
My Comment : Gold has been performing poorly, but maybe not for long.
Excerpts:
During the early 2010s, Paulson became better known as a gold bug, and remains convinced of its potential:
Yeah, we do. We believe that gold does very well in times of inflation. The last time gold went parabolic was in the 1970s, when we had two years of double-digit inflation.
The reason why gold goes parabolic is that basically there’s a very limited amount of investable gold. It’s on the order of several trillion dollars, while the total amount of financial assets is closer to $200 trillion. So as inflation picks up, people try and get out of fixed income. They try and get out of cash. And the logical place to go is gold. But because the amount of money trying to move out of cash and fixed income dwarfs the amount of investable gold, the supply and demand imbalance causes gold to rise.
So you’re a big believer in gold as a good investment now?
Yes. We thought in 2009 with the Fed doing quantitative easing, which is essentially printing money, it would lead to inflation. But what happened was while the Fed printed money, at the same time they raised the capital and reserve requirements in banks.
So the money sort of recycled. The Fed bought Treasuries, created money, which wound up in the banks and then was redeposited at the Fed. And the money never really entered the money supply. So it wasn’t inflationary. However, this time it has entered the money supply. The money supply was up about 25% last year and the best indicator of inflation is money supply. So I think we have inflation coming well in excess of what the current expectations are.
But, Paulson is not a fan of cryptos...
No, I’m not. And I would say that cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. So to the extent there’s more demand than the limited supply, the price would go up. But to the extent the demand falls, then the price would go down. There’s no intrinsic value to any of the cryptocurrencies except that there’s a limited amount.
Cryptocurrencies, regardless of where they’re trading today, will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in cryptocurrencies.
Really poor planning and absolute incompetency -
My Comment : Who was minding the store ? I think Biden's handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal will haunt his presidency and you have wonder just what else is not being properly managed (immigration, economy / deficits, etc). Unfortunately I think a lot of Biden's selected people to run the government were chosen based on ethnicity and sex, not on competency. Let's see how Biden handles the next big issue / problem.
Viral Infographic Reveals The Shocking Amount Of Military Hardware Biden Handed To The Taliban : https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/shocking-infographic-reveals-magnitude-military-hardware-biden-handed-taliban
The Fed Keeps Printing "Or The Whole Things Blows Up": https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-keeps-printing-or-whole-things-blows
Excerpt:
So, the money is going to come from somewhere. Of course, the Fed is going to keep monetizing the debt because if they don’t, interest rates have got to rise to a point people are willing to loan it to the U.S. If interest rates go to 3% or 5%, the whole thing blows up.”
Hemke points out, “All we can do is prepare for a time when this finally implodes because it will..."
" Confidence will eventually collapse. Confidence is like Hemmingway’s explanation of how he went bankrupt. He was asked, ‘How did you go broke?’ He said, ‘At first slowly, and then, all at once.’ Confidence gets chipped away a little bit at a time like what you are seeing in Afghanistan, and then, all at once. That is eventually what is going to happen. You’ve got to be using this time to prepare for that...
Econ 101 teaches you if you are increasing supply (of dollars) and decreasing the demand, the price falls and the dollar collapses. Inflation spins out of control. Then, you have to do all these other things to try to keep interest rates from going up. All the plates start to collapse that Fed Head Powell is trying to spin.”
Hemke says all this dollar printing and interest rate suppression is a good thing for precious metals and a very bad thing for the U.S. dollar. Hemke explains,
“You’ve got people saying I don’t want to use the dollar anymore. These are all significant consequences to everything that led up to the last three weeks, but now, the events of the last three weeks are spinning it that much faster.”
Hemke is still expecting gold and silver to close much higher by the end of the year. How much higher is anyone’s guess? There are some things you can count on, and Hemke predicts,
“Covid is not going away. Confidence in the U.S. monetary system continues to get chipped away. The taper is impossible. The Fed not monetizing the debt is impossible, they have to. . . . prices of gold and silver are going to soar.”
It's all about the debt -
Perfect Storms : https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/perfect-storms
My Comment : $50T national debt by 2030 ? And a Fed Balance sheet of $25T by 2030 ? Got Gold ?
Excerpts:
Many homeowners who haven’t sold, and have no desire to, have used this time to refinance and in some cases pull cash equity out of their homes. Similarly, homebuilders and contractors have added debt to buy properties, materials, and equipment. All this added leverage could become problematic in a recession/falling home price environment. And we know how debt problems cascade through the economy.
Debt pressure is inexorable. Then COVID came along and simply blew out all the prior debt projections. I’ve said we were looking at $50 trillion by 2030. I now think it will be at least another $5 trillion more and maybe double that. I don’t believe the bond market can handle that by itself.
I firmly believe a $25 trillion+ Federal Reserve balance sheet is likely by the end of this decade.
I think Biden is and will continue to prove he's milk toast (ie weak). Just wait till Kamala takes over as president.
One thing which shows just how unprepared Biden was for the Afghanistan withdrawal is that the 8/31 deadline has been in place for a long time and yet no plans were made for housing the Afghans in the US and as a result 20,000 will be housed by AirBnB. The withdrawal should have begun much much sooner. We are leaving a lot of military equipment behind for the Taliban. Absolutely abysmal planning. At this point, I think Biden just wants Afghanistan off the headlines, but I don't think it will go away since so many Afghans and US citizens will be left stranded after 8/31.
Inflation and gold argument -
I find the argument that gold is not responding positively to higher inflation illogical. Basically, analysts argue that inflation will cause rates to rise and the US$ to strengthen putting downward pressure on gold. Long term rates keep falling even in the face of higher inflation due to QE and global economic slowing. They've argued that inflation is a negative for gold. That just ain't true.
Here's a big reason for the Fed created housing shortage -
My Comment : The Fed practically gave houses away to Blackstone when the 2008 mortgage bubble burst. Now there is little to no inventory ...Blackstone has it all.
After Cornering Rentals, Blackstone Is Now Going After Student Dorms : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-cornering-rentals-blackstone-now-going-after-student-dorms
Excerpt:
For much of the past decade, private equity giant Blackstone, which at last check had $684 billion in AUM, was the single largest institutional landlord in the US, and according to some, the "largest owner of real estate in the world." Then a few years ago, Blackstone lost that designation when it comes to residential housing (it remains the largest commercial landlord by a wide margin); however the recent explosion in home prices and rents has prompted the Wall Street firm to double down its efforts to recover the title of undisputed landlord champion, and in June the firm announced its latest transaction (funded by ultra cheap debt courtesy of the Fed) when it purchased Home Partners of America, which owns more than 17,000 houses throughout the US, for $6 billion
Sustainable ? I think NOT -
The Cost Of Saving The Economy: $1.7 Billion Per Hour Every Hour : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cost-saving-economy-17-billion-hour-every-hour
My Comment: So when does this get reflected in the POG and when does the Fed get overwhelmed (in the next recession the Fed will not be able to save the economy)
Excerpt:
But there is another, more tangible reason, why investors feel emboldened by central banks. As Hartnett calculates, the Fed has bought $4 trillion bonds in the past 18 months, twice the amount the US spent on War in Afghanistan past 20 years...... as it, and other global central banks, have spent $834 million every hour buying bonds since COVID.
Add to this that the US government spends $875 million every hour in ’21 and one gets a staggering number of $1.7 billion spent between central banks and the profligate US government to prevent a market crash economic disaster. As Hartnett puts it, "little wonder everyone believes in TINA & BTD."
Actually I think Trump was a very poor president and Biden is starting to really screw up. We just don't have good reasonable leaders. I think Biden will destroy the country, especially if the Democrats push though their $3.5T social programs. My God, you'd think the country was financially sound with all of the proposed spending, but the opposite is dramatically so with a national debt of $29T and I expect it to reach $40T by 2025-26 even without the Biden $3.5T spending. May God have mercy on their (our) souls (a line from the movie Jumanji). The next big test is the budget ceiling along with the $3.5T plan.
Mish: Don't Fall For Joe Biden's Big Lie On Inflation : https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dont-fall-joe-bidens-big-lie-inflation
Excerpt:
Wage hikes are now spiraling. Still, one could make a case that these hikes would end up being transitory.
However, belief that businesses will take huge tax hikes and increase wages without passing costs on is ridiculous.
It is economically absurd to believe more expensive energy, free childcare, free paid leave, free education for two years, and higher taxes won't increase inflation and slow growth.
This is getting serious and it will only get worse because Climate change will be a problem for a very long time. Watch food inflation soar.
Drought forces first water cuts on the Colorado River. They're just the beginning. (msn.com)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cuts-in-colorado-river-water-supply-will-hit-arizona-hardest/ar-AANog9b?ocid=msedgntp
More excerpts from previous post -
No More Business Cycles
One last comment that I picked up over the years. My friend Peter Boockvar actually crystallized this thought, but I think I’m going to make it part of my own liturgy: We no longer have business cycles; we have credit cycles. Central banks and governments, not to mention investment banks and investors, are all using credit in formerly unbelievable ways, and I am here to shout that the world is becoming one massive finger of instability.
Let’s go back to that 1987 mathematical experiment. The simple fact is there are green sand dots all over the world. They represent stability in the global system, which is allowing the fingers of instability to build up in a potentially deadlier way than we have ever seen before.
While we have had to deal with a virus-triggered recession, we are thankfully watching the economy begin to grow again. It is happening in ways that will make the world look different in 2022 than it did in 2019.
We take comfort from the stability we see around us. Corporate profits are up. We are greeted every day with some amazing new technological innovation that changes everything in some industry. Living standards keep rising.
And yet, Minsky tells us stability breeds instability. That sandpile experiment, as simple as it seems now, shows that the longer the stability lasts, with the fingers of instability connecting in hidden and unknown ways, the greater the avalanche will be.
I suggest you read at least the first half of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book, Antifragile. Here are three lessons that will show you what it means to be antifragile:
Fragile items break under stress; antifragile items get better from it.
In order for a system to be antifragile, most of its parts must be fragile.
Antifragile systems work because they build extra capacity when put under stress.
Ubiquity, Complexity, and Sandpiles
: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/ubiquity-complexity-and-sandpiles
My Comment: How will we profit from the next financial crisis ? Options can bankrupt you while you wait. And timing is everything.
Also climate change is driving up food prices which means inflation will not be transitory. Covid Delta may keep tapering on hold
Excerpts:
Remember, very astute people saw the subprime crisis and made a lot of money shorting that market. I saw it coming but didn’t know how to trade it. I guarantee you, I’m paying attention now to who can profit from the next credit crisis. Maybe I’ll succeed, and maybe I won’t, but just once, I would like to be on the right side of a crisis.
Remember, very astute people saw the subprime crisis and made a lot of money shorting that market. I saw it coming but didn’t know how to trade it. I guarantee you, I’m paying attention now to who can profit from the next credit crisis. Maybe I’ll succeed, and maybe I won’t, but just once, I would like to be on the right side of a crisis.
It's really very frustrating and you have to wonder if they will be able to control the POG regardless of Basel 3 (takes effect in Jan 2022, I think). I just keep buying PM miners on big dips knowing that someday they will have a big payoff. I think the American consumer is reckless with the debt they accumulate and there is a day of reckoning for all of the debt, especially sovereign debt. I just don't think we can have a liquidity injected recovery indefinitely.
It's really very frustrating and you have to wonder if they will be able to control the POG regardless of Basel 3 (takes effect in Jan 2022, I think). I just keep buying PM miners on big dips knowing that someday they will have a big payoff. I think the American consumer is reckless with the debt they accumulate and there is a day of reckoning for all of the debt, especially sovereign debt. I just don't think we can have a liquidity injected recovery indefinitely.
Fed On Verge Of Losing Control: 25% Of Consumers Expect Inflation In 3 Years To Explode To 8% : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-verge-losing-control-25-consumers-expect-inflation-3-years-explode-8
Fed On Verge Of Losing Control: 25% Of Consumers Expect Inflation In 3 Years To Explode To 8% : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-verge-losing-control-25-consumers-expect-inflation-3-years-explode-8
I find it amazing that RE, stocks, and bonds are all in huge bubbles and yet gold is declining.
Poll: Large majority opposes Democrats' big spending bill
: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-large-majority-opposes-democrats-big-spending-bill/ar-AAN6PLP?ocid=msedgntp
My Comment : I certainly hope this $3.5T spending on social programs fails to pass. If it does pass, it could mean up to a 43% capital gains tax.
Excerpt:
“A majority (57%) of voters do not want Washington spending a total of $4.7 trillion on infrastructure, climate change, and social welfare programs and a supermajority is concerned this level of spending could hurt them directly in the form of runaway inflation, higher taxes down the line, lower economic growth or negative impacts on their family’s finances,” the survey found
Yes, indeed rates cannot be allowed to increase because of the massive amount of debt, especially sovereign debt. So what happens to tapering ?
Probably some modest tapering. From your post:
I don't think governments can afford to watch interest rates go back to 3-4 percent, y'know ? So......"
Yes, indeed rates cannot be allowed to increase because of the massive amount of debt, especially sovereign debt. So what happens to tapering ?
Probably some modest tapering. From your post:
I don't think governments can afford to watch interest rates go back to 3-4 percent, y'know ? So......"
Consumer Credit Soars Most On Record As Credit Card Borrowings Hit An All Time High : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-credit-soars-most-record-credit-card-borrowings-hit-all-time-high
My Comment : All of the debt will make the next recession worse than ever
Excerpt:
After several months of subdued increases in consumer credit, moments ago the Fed reported that in June, total consumer credit surged by the most on record, soaring by $37.69 billion, nearly double the consensus estimate of $23 billion. The monthly increase was a whopping 10.6% SAAR, pushing the total to a new record high of $4.319 trillion.
What was behind this stunning surge? Well, just as stimmies ran out, US household decided to shift from debit to credit cards, and splurged to a never before seen pace, pushing revolving credit, i.e., credit card debt, higher by a whopping 17.9$ billion, the biggest monthly increase on record, and pushing the total revolving debt back to just shy of $1 trillion or $992.2 billion.
Sorry about your eye. I hope it's not too serious and that you recover soon. Take care and keep us posted on your eye.
As for gold, I think the key fundamental reason for holding gold is the massive amount of debt. There is a day of reckoning.
The bears are back as gold price drops nearly $50, next target is $1,750 :
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-08-06/The-bears-are-back-as-gold-price-drops-nearly-50-next-target-is-1-750.html
My Comment : Those twin deficits will only worsen
Excerpt:
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said he was neutral on gold in the near term, and the pullback is a healthy, much-needed correction. He added that he is watching momentum in the U.S. dollar.
"That can have only a little more to run at best," he said. "There is a constant battle between the U.S.'s large and worsening twin-deficits (bad for a currency) and the higher yields on offer from the U.S."
Americans Are Taking On Debt As If Tomorrow Will Never Come : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/americans-are-taking-debt-if-tomorrow-will-never-come
My comment : So how and when does it all end ?
Excerpt:
Americans have more debt than ever before.
A surge in credit card spending and home purchases caused US household debt to increase by $313 billion, or 2.1%, in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
That’s the largest nominal jump since 2007 and the biggest percentage increase in seven and a half years.
Overall, U.S. consumers are now $14,960,000,000,000 in debt.
We will shortly hit the 15 trillion dollar mark, and I think that we should commemorate the crossing of that threshold with some sort of celebration.
Mortgage debt is rising particularly quickly. Housing prices have been going through the roof recently, and this has created a frenzy on a scale that we haven’t seen since just before the subprime mortgage meltdown of 2008…
Mortgage debt, the single biggest contributor to overall household debt, rose $282 billion to $10.44 trillion. A whopping 44% of the outstanding balances were originated over the past year, accounting for both new mortgages and refinancings.
Howard Marks: "We Are In An Everything Bubble" : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/howard-marks-we-are-everything-bubble
Excerpt:
Where our view differs with Howard's, is that we are absolutely certain that it is now completely impossible to undo 12 years of Fed central planning and micromanagement of markets. Back in 2009 it may still have been feasible to extricate asset prices from monetary policy, but now it is too late.
Where we agree is that he is of course, right: this is indeed an everything bubble, something we have been saying since inception.
And indicatively, whereas one year ago there was $1 trillion in distressed debt last year, since then that number has plunged to just $124.7 billion, aided by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to steady the markets economy.
U.S. trade deficit jumps to record high in June on strong import growth : https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-08-05/U-S-trade-deficit-jumps-to-record-high-in-June-on-strong-import-growth.html
My Comment: The twin deficits. Imagine $75.7B * 12 mo = $908B
Excerpt:
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that the trade gap increased 6.7% to $75.7 billion in June, an all-time high.
China is trying to slow the speculation, especially in RE, but it's a huge bubble and it's not easy to let it deflate. Every time the markets have a negative reaction, China adds more stimulus. Doug Noland writes about China in the week's newsletter : http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/07/weekly-commentary-king-of-carry-trades.html
Ditto - I've been doing it for 50 years. Found some one-of-a-kind items. A lot of the really good items are just not available anymore. The best time to buy is during hard times which the Fed has prevented for the last 30 years. I've found mostly antiques (cash registers, general store items, furniture, soda fountain items, phonographs, clocks, oak wall phones, world globes, B&H lighting, model ships, books, 1920s Buddy L toys, classic sports cars, etc) and art at auctions, thrift stores, garage sales, and online sales. I look for unusual items selling at a discount. I've just collected a lot over the years and space becomes an issue, but it is an investment you can enjoy and small investments appreciate over the years. For this hobby, "let the bad times roll".
Treasure hunting can be fun even if they do not produce such finds. Then again, they just may if you keep looking. Even smaller finds add up over time.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/classic-cars/treasures-found-in-barns-and-abandoned-buildings/ss-AAMOzI6?ocid=msedgntp#image=1
Biden's proposed inheritance tax changes would destroy small American farmers: Norquist : https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-30/Biden-s-proposed-inheritance-tax-changes-would-destroy-small-American-farmers-Norquist.html
My Comment : I certainly hope Biden's $3.5Trillion plan fails completely. Otherwise stocks won't be worth holding due to the capital gains tax.
Excerpt:
Another way the Biden Administration is looking to help fund the American Families Plan, is to nearly double the top tax rate on capital gains from 23.8% to 43.4%