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New blog post for those interested:
http://avoidthebag.blogspot.com/2018/08/resverlogix-soars-on-rothschild-co-news.html
The chart is pointing towards overbought....but
Call it a market version of Murphy's Law, but one thing I've noticed on repeated occasions....Just when I think a stock can't go any higher, BAM...up she goes. And conversely just when I think that a stock has found a bottom and can't drop anymore, the bottom falls out again.
I think the Rothschild news changes the dynamic here.....as I've expressed elsewhere, I don't think a company of Rothschild & Co' stature would agree to take on a company like Resverlogix, a thinly traded, obscure, Canadian biotech that trades at penny stock status....I don't think they'd agree to take them on as a client unless they saw something really good.
Of course that's just one man's opinion.
LoL...you read my mind
Was just thinking about that.
Sample Size Recalculation Analysis....
Early in 2018 there was the thought that the BETonMACE trial might need to increase enrollment in order to optimize results. I think its a dead issue at this point though.
I attended an investor presentation in Toronto back in early May and had a brief one on one with the CEO Don McCaffrey. During his public presentation he stated that the trial is "properly powered" at 2,400 patients....
Personally and in my opinion I think another DSMB report would serve the same purposes....if a SSRA would be done its the DSMB that would make the recommendation to do it.
https://www.resverlogix.com/investors/news.html?article=593
Upcoming catalysts and inflection points:
From where I sit, high up in the bleachers....this is what shareholders have to look forward to in the coming weeks and months.
-A 7th DSMB report and/or SSRA
Its been over 4 months now since the DSMB has chimed in, 6 times they've recommended the trial continue on with no changes recommended and no concerns listed about either safety or efficacy. An SSRA would be even better.
-Successful completion of BETonMACE and top line results. If things go reasonably close to how they seem to be planned the 250 MAC events should happen sometime late in the year.
-NDA application
-NDA approval
Each step has risks of course....but if each step is successfully achieved I like the chances for a PPS in and around the $10 mark by the EOY.
$5 with good SSRA, or maybe $3 to $4 with a 7th + DSMB report.
$10 if they're able to meet the BETonMACE primary end point with positive top-line data.
Then would come an NDA filing and hopefully approval. And obviously there could be other announcements along the way like licensing deals, the start of trials for CKD and Fabry's, further analyst coverage or media exposure.
RVX.TO had its Golden Cross already.....
RVXCF will have one either tomorrow or Wednesday, the function of the Canadian dollar being worth only about 77 cents US. It could happen today, but I think that would take a close of $2.25 or better for RVXCF....which I suppose is possible, but I consider it unlikely, maybe by the end of this week though.
All eyes on Canada for the 4th of July.....
Obviously no trading for RVXCF today...thinking realisticly it seems most likely that tomorrow and indeed this entire week, that the trading will be light and the direction to be sideways/down
But then this stock does some crazy things at times...still waiting on the 7th DSMB recommendation.
I don't have much faith in L-II quotes....
The way I see it L-II is too easily manipulated. With an obscure stock like Resverlogix (or any other low profile company) the big boys can use L-II to create a false impression in my opinion.
If there's a big player looking to accumulate a stock, imo he can put up a big block on the ask side....not because he wants to sell but because he wants to create an impression that there's a ton of shares available. Some retail schmuck looks and says, "Whoa...there's 20K shares available on the ask just a piddly little 300 being bid, I'm gonna stay away".
With Iceberg orders a big player can hide the largest portion of his bid. Maybe the big player wants 50,000 shares...but he uses an iceberg order so that only 500 is visible while the other 49,500 is the hidden portion.
I've talked to tons of retail investors over the years and hardly anyone knows about this. Here's an article:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp
Of course it works both ways. When a big player wants to dump a ton of shares the iceberg can be used on the ask side. Maybe someone wants to dump 250K shares, but they'll only show 1K visible....and at the same time they can put up a massive bid fully visible to create a false impression that there is tons of demand to go along with what appears to be very tight supply.
You see it on message boards all the time..."HUGE BIDS AND HARDLY ANYTHING ON THE ASK". Then a week later the sheep are going "What the heck happened, it looked so good and I'm already down 50%".
Its a contrarian way of looking at the market. The reason the pros are able to buy low and sell high is because there are all kinds of little tricks they can use to get the sheep to do the opposite.
I don't have much faith in L-II quotes....
The way I see it L-II is too easily manipulated. With an obscure stock like Resverlogix (or any other low profile company) the big boys can use L-II to create a false impression in my opinion.
If there's a big player looking to accumulate a stock, imo he can put up a big block on the ask side....not because he wants to sell but because he wants to create an impression that there's a ton of shares available. Some retail schmuck looks and says, "Whoa...there's 20K shares available on the ask just a piddly little 300 being bid, I'm gonna stay away".
With Iceberg orders a big player can hide the largest portion of his bid. Maybe the big player wants 50,000 shares...but he uses an iceberg order so that only 500 is visible while the other 49,500 is the hidden portion.
I've talked to tons of retail investors over the years and hardly anyone knows about this. Here's an article:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/icebergorder.asp
Of course it works both ways. When a big player wants to dump a ton of shares the iceberg can be used on the ask size. Maybe someone wants to dump 250K shares, but they'll only show 1K visible....and at the same time they can put up a massive bid fully visible to create a false impression that there is tons of demand to go along with what appears to be very tight supply.
You see it on message boards all the time..."HUGE BIDS AND HARDLY ANYTHING ON THE ASK". Then a week later the sheep are going "What the heck happened, it looked so good and I'm already down 50%".
Its a contrarian way of looking at the market. The reason the pros are able to buy low and sell high is because there are all kinds of little tricks they can use to get the sheep to do the opposite.
Its like the damn has to burst one way or t'other.....
On the Canadian side we've been seeing decent volumes of late, at least 100K daily for pretty much all of May and June...we haven't see a day of Canadian trading with less than 100K since May 8th.
And now here we are, over an hour into the trading day and only 1,500 so far...and only 300 on the US otcbb side. Is calling it a Mexican stand-off politically incorrect? Bulls and bears at 20 paces, which side is gonna push it?
Good on ya for that...I saw your posts
I had my finger poised on the sell button when the PPS was at $2.50 and higher CDN but just couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger. FOMO has taken me in its grasp....I see way too much potential here, and even though the charts showed RVX as being in a very overbought position I decided to toss the chart in the trash and hold on tight....oh well. I really think $3+ is possible next week, but I don't see myself letting any go until we get closer to the end of the year.
I like the chances for a big move next week.....
RVX (or RVXCF) is so tightly held that those selling short, they've been failing to deliver the shares they're selling...Naked Short Selling in other words. Thankfully the TSX has their "Buy In" facility that locates shares, forcing short sellers to cover off at about a 10% premium....there were 12,000 such shares bought for $2.39 on Friday.
That tells me that liquidity is almost non-existent, so if any substantial buying moves in I like the chances for a big move up next week, maybe even north of $3 CDN on the TSX. $3 CDN would about $2.25 in USD.
Last week we saw Resverlogix get written up on Seeking Alpha by some group called Avisol Capital which has over 7,000 followers on that site. Now Friday we have this Motley Fool write up.
On top of that Friday will be the last trading day of the week, of June and of the second quarter.
Here's hoping we get the 7th update from the DSMB and that its another thumbs up with no safety or efficacy concerns noted again with a recommendation for the trial to continue with no modifications needed.
Looking forward to the trading.
Motley Fool Exposure....
Resverlogix listed as one of 3 stocks that can "electrify your TFSA".
https://www.fool.ca/2018/06/22/young-investors-3-biotech-stocks-that-can-electrify-your-tfsa/
There was a Seeking Alpha piece last week, now a Motley Fool article...hardly the CNBCs or even BNNs of the investment world, but its a start....maybe bigger things are coming later.
For any Americans who are scratching their heads..."TFSA"????
It stands for Tax Free Savings Account. Canadians can invest up to $5,500 per year, and a cumulative total of $57,500 (previous year's unused contribution room carries over) in all manner of investment vehicles: Savings Accounts, Mutual Funds, ETFs, Stocks, Bonds etc....
There's no tax advantage when you put money into a TFSA, but when you take money out everything is tax free, both the initial money invested (because its after tax money anyway) and any growth.
Naked short selling can pummel a stock....
In most cases taking money for something and then failing to deliver would be called fraud, but not on Bay and Wall Streets:
http://avoidthebag.blogspot.com/2018/06/resverlogix-naked-story-fully-annotated.html
I was on the short side but no position now....
I might play it again if there's another big pump and dump though....we'll see how much cash they've burned through when the next quarterly comes out.
Probably an NDA....
If he was fired there'd probably be a non-disclosure agreenment.
If they sell any of these...
After Toshiba and Ubimaxx get paid is there much of anything left over for Vuzix?
I read the PR....
Looks like Blade is gonna be another bust...already planning on something cutting edge and sleek in the future, meaning their current stuff isn't...but congrats, that's what moves VUZI stock....not results, just fluffy news is all it takes... a newbie player's dream stock.
VUZI is basically a penny stock....
The only reason it isn't is because of the 1:75 reverse split....but all the other markers are there, huge losses, printing shares to survive, lots of pumpers and promoters engaged.
Penny stocks can be great for trading....CYNK went from 5 cents to over $20....now of course its delisted.
I might look to scalp it in the future, or to buy calls...but I'll wait until they're running out of cash again, that's when they have incentive to pump so they can print off more shares and dump them into the market to keep the lights on and the pay checks from bouncing.
Did they hire this Craig Hallum Guy?
http://www.craig-hallum.com/alpha-select/the-alpha-select-list/
That's where the tweet comes from...Vuzix has hired a ton of promoters over the years, 20+ according to stock-sweeper. Back to the well? Is another secondary coming necessitating a pump for the PPS to get the sheep excited and buying again?
Good luck...looks like the game of hot potato might start again, if so those still holding when the music stops lose.
Motivation to pump the share price again?
According to the Moxx allegations the motivation for hiring IRTH and pumping the PPS was to raise cash by dumping more shares into the market...and it looks like it was mission accomplished, at a PPS of $10...
Now the company is cashed up decently....something like $30 million or so in the bank if memory serves. If they keep losing $5 to $6 million every three months then they have enough do/re/mi to last another 12+ months before the well runs dry again.
Of course with negative margins that means the more they sell, the more money they lose. So if they start pumping out Blades and sell them for less than it costs to make them, then those losses can accelerate.
Then maybe they'll hire IRTH or some other similar type company to bring in more 'Greater Fools'?
The only incentive to pump up the PPS again I can see in the near term is to avoid falling below $5 and thus attaining penny stock status again. Vuzix doesn't have a lot of instututional ownership, not even 10%....but many institutions are not allowed to hold a stock trading under $5 in certain funds.
Don't have to, its right there....
Revenues go up a little, net losses go up more....its like a liberal/democrtatic budget, big on rhetoric and lots of red ink.
So long as they can keep printing and selling shares when the cash runs out they can survive, but if the biz is ever forced to operate responsibly with revenues covering expenses, then they're fried.
I'm no scientist, not by any stretch.....
But from what I understand, neither is the CEO. With that being said Don is a lot closer to the science types than I am, and if he is willing to state the opinion that BETonMACE is "properly powered" then I'm more inclined to believe him over idle banter on a message board.
I'm not saying its a slam dunk, that there's no chance of more patients and events being required....but this close to the finish line I would think the company CEO would have a decent idea as to where things stand.
And May is looking good so far....hope it continues.
We'll see if your opinion bears out....
The question of whether BETonMACE is sufficiently powered or not has been out there for a long time, at $1.30 and even when the PPS was over $2 CDN so personally I don't see it as a driving factor right now.
Financing is another matter altogether imo....without the Thrid Eye loan there isn't enough money to take the trial to the finish line, even if 2,400 patients and 250 MAC events is enough.
Who's not going to get $1.80?
The shorts in trying to cover? Or shareholders who might decide to sell? RVX.TO (and of course RVXCF as well) have had some pretty wild swings over the past year....a jump back to $1.80 CDN or even back over $2 would not shock me at all, in point of fact I'm very hopeful of it happening.
June's drop coincided with a big spike in short selling, as has this most recent drop. We'll see if the loan goes through and if it does how the market reacts.
Looks like it was a short attack to me.....
Short interest jumped up by more than 1 million shares after that announcement....so like June the borrowing and dumping of shares hammered the PPS. Likely some shareholders got spooked and bailed, short players know that retail investors are typically very price sensitive.
Hopefully the loan gets announced soon and the decision is made to skip the share offering....it was only "proposed" in any event.
Looks like they're following CETX's strategy....
I'd have to look back, but as I recall when CETX announced the same thing last year they also filed in NY with similar type allegations against Pearson, including the same alias.
And it went nowhere....but it at least it makes a good show.
Ultimately I think this is basically a PR move and that nothing will come of the lawsuit. Time will tell.
Negative return on equity of 123.93%
and a negative net margin of 354.51%.
With Vuzix is always about the future, when the future becomes the present the results always fail.
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/VUZI/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-direct&utm_source=GeneralSocialMedia&utm_medium=Social
I have no doubt the Blade will be another bust, but they'll probably have a new product or a newer vesion they'll by touting by that time. And when the cash runs out the playbook has always been to print more shares....if it weren't for a massive 1:75 reverse split in 2013 they'd have 500 million+ outstanding.
Its not BS....
Same outfit did a pump piece on VUZI in July 2016:
http://saadvisory.com/update/archive/July-11-2016.htm
Don't often see small and chunk together....
Kinda like Jumbo Shrimp....I picked up another 5K last week just under 24 to average down yet again. Too many times I hesitate and then see a stock take off.
Good point......
He may be a lone wolf, or part of a bigger consortium....same with the pumper dumpers. Obviously Vuzix's bottom line performance is same old same old....$20+ million in losses attributable to common, more than last year or the year before that. But they're very good at selling the future, even if they never deliver on it....the M100 fizzled, the M300 looks like its more of the same.
Even that Wounded Warrior project that had some projecting $10+million in revenue, with one SA writter named in the Mox report saying up to $180 million...it looks like its been another dud.
Now of course its the blade.....like people will wear their glasses to turn the lights on and off. Reminds me of the Virtual Keyboard from years back, it was a nifty, but as it turned out ultimately uselss, little gadget...but it was good to pump up VKB's PPS and ensure that company could pay some nice fat salaries for a money losing idea.
Not looking for kudos....
It was obvious for a long time, but message board postings and blog musings by a retail investor, they're farts in the market hurricane. Professional pump and promotion blow a lot harder.
This Mox Report guy obviously has a lot weight in the market....the law firms are now piling on.
I already owned put options when the bad news hit....
I've seen Vuzix as a bubble waiting to burst since Sept 2016, the company bleeds cash like a hemophiliac....but bubbles can take a while to burst. Eventually though people start to realize the emperor has no clothes...all it takes is an authoritative voice to say it.
Here's the first blog post I did on it back in Sept/2016....but Avoid The Bag is a fart in a hurricane.
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html
If the allegations are true....
If I'm understanding this MOX Report correctly, the author is alleging that Vuzix hired this IRTH company to do investor relations/promotions. In turn IRTH then had positive stories "placed" with Mainstream outlets like Fox Biz and USA Todaye etc
And this was done in order to inflate the PPS and drive interest for another secondary offering that raised $30 million less fees for Vuzix.
Okay if this is true...the question is, does Vuzix have any incentive to engage promoters now that the bank account is pretty flush?
According to the 10K they had just under $15 million left on Dec 31st. Add in the $28 million ($30 less $2 mill in fees) and you have $43 million. According to the filing Vuzix had net losses attributable to common shareholders of $6.3 million in the 4th quarter, up from $5.9 million in the 3rd quarter.
So assuming they're continuing to burn about $2 million per month...then they'd still have somewhere around $37 million odd as of the end of March.
Vuzix has survived 20 odd years with a lot of promotion and regular dilution...but for another year or so they should be good unless their losses continue climbing.
Its going to be interesting....
I read the "Mega Deal" seeking alpha article by Mark Gomes:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099399-vuzix-just-announce-mega-deal
That was about the Wounded Warrior program that seems to have been a bust. The Mox writer says that Gomes was "shut down" by the SEC. Here's the link to that SEC ruling which says Gomes was dumping his personal holdings in stocks that he was touting without disclosing the fact....which by my definition is about as pure an example of Pump and Dump as I can think of.
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2017/33-10414.pdf
Did Margolis work for this guy? If so I'll take any denial with a grain of salt. What is it they say about birds of a feather?
Again...it seems the Mox writer has his facts straight, Margolis did work for this guy:
https://www.broadwayworld.com/bwwgeeks/article/PTT-Research-Expands-Analyst-Team-and-Coverage-20140902
Monday will be interesting in any case....
Another 10K reporting big losses, last year everyone told me "next year" will be the turn around....they just reported losing more in 2017 than they did in 2016. I expect it'll be the same again...."2018 will be the year" and then they'll lose even more money:
At least it gave me something to write about:
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2018/03/vuzix-slammed-with-allegations-of-fraud.html
Article out alleging fraud....
I've always thought that Vuzix was just a lousy money losing company that only survived by printing a never ending supply of shares, and given the bottom line performance its a pretty easy view to substantiate.
The writer of this article however is actually suggesting fraud:
https://moxreports.com/
I remember when Sino Forest got hit with this type of story....analysts and other industry hacks came to the company's defense which helped support the PPS for a short time, but it turned out the allegations were true and Sino Forest was delisted.
Thanks....
To me pumping and bashing are just different sides of the same coin....I'm long on GLOW but I ain't gonna pump it. I've seen worse stocks make huge gains, and better ones fall big.
I came across something while bored and googling:
http://blockchainnigeria.group/
Its a Nigerian conference for BlockChain...the curious part is the conference theme: "Learning to Glow with The Flow". Its likely just a coincidence...but interesting regardless.
Thanks for sharing my blog....
But note, that's simply a rumour....and its one that led me to put some money at risk here, the rumour combined with my opinion of the chart.
But take note of that word, "risk". This isn't a sure thing, even if the blockchain rumor turns out to be true there still is risk that the PPS could decline.
IMO Glow isn't "investing" its gambling...and I express that view from the point of view of someone who has a long position.
Cheers