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What news will be out sooner than who thinks?
Clearly another plot by big pharma.
Ariad is up 2% after the 2pm announcement after dropping back a bit in the morning.
Sure Vid - and which one has been irrationally shorted by liars and day traders who are baling out quickly.
With Clovis up 4.38% and Ariad up 4.64% right now, one might ask who is more loved.
With CLVS seemingly in play the whole biotech sector is moving irrationally like a school of small fish being chased by blue fish only these guys are all hoping to be eaten.
CLVS???
Perhaps you guys are all aware of these more recent trials but just in case here is the list.
Sponsored trials not yet open for enrollment not listed in Clinical Trials
Phase 2 Study of Ponatinib in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with RET Translocations
Location: Mass. GenerAL Hosp. Boston
Phase 2 Study of Ponatinib with Cytarabine as Consolidation Therapy in Patients with FLT3-ITD AML
Location: Hopitaux de Versailles and Hopital Mignot, France; approximately 45 ALFA and GOELAM clinical centers
Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Impact of Switching CML Patients Treated with a First-line Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor to Ponatinib- SPIRIT 3
Location: Multiple sites throughout the U.K.
Trial initiated by Ariad listed in Clinical Trials
Phase 2 Study in Cohorts of Patients with Lung Cancer Preselected using Different Candidate Predictive Biomarkers
Location: University of Colorado, Denver (Hope the flood damage doesn't derail the trial)
All in all these newer developments convey a sense of real excitement in the wider world's scientific community about Ponatinib
No its not possible - sorry for the confusion
Is it possible that Tesaro has a relationship with Amgen and that this trial is listed in Clinicaltrials.gov as the Amgen trial for AMG 319??
There was a twitter sell yesterday and "The Street" quant had some dumb evaluation ending in a sell today. Just the nature of the stock market to have this mindless stuff cloud the picture.
It is also September so institutions are rearranging holdings and taking profits as well as losses. Some news at ASH should calm the crowds.
That BAML "survey" sounds like more of Rachel's damning with faint praise.
In such a survey of TWO physicians, it would seem appropriate to name them and state their affiliations. So, how many physicians does it actually take to make a survey? More than two Rachel.
I just don't see the short covering idea here. There certainly may be some but for the pps to move +20% in 5 days on volume is more than just SC. Even institutional buying would be more orderly and not on a Friday afternoon in September just head of 9/11 and a possible missile strike.
I am curious about what Monday morning will bring
A few facts are always useful.
Why are you making false allegations about Dr. Berger that you can not prove?
You don't get credit for what you don't say, however, i'll accept your amended response as the equivalent
Dr. Berger has been able to recruit, inspire and retain an amazing collection of scientists in world class scientific research with world class outcomes - if that is 'mediocre", I'll have some more of that please.
He has earned the respect of the scientific community for that leadership. A few technical missteps notwithstanding, he has done an amazing overall job under difficult conditions such as an economic collapse. We, the shareholders, and the world at large are all much better off having him at the helm.
Ill, the smart money is obviously following your charting advice.
jaybe - great stuff - more than I expected
jaybe - Thanks for the review. As I read the comparisons that are made from time to time, I am left with questions that may not have answers at this point. If you have any thoughts about them I would greatly appreciate them.
1.) What percentage of patients with nsclc who are eligible to be treated with AP26113 will go on to develop brain mets?
2.) If a patient with nsclc is initially treated with a drug that has no impact on brain mets, does the probability of that patient for developing brain mets increase over time as the drug's efficacy wanes?
3.) If that patient with nsclc is then treated again with another drug that has no impact on brain mets, does the probability for developing brain mets increase and is that probability now even greater?
4.) If a patient with nsclc is initially treated with AP26113, does the patient have a greater probability for OS because there was no exacerbation due to brain mets or because the onset of brain mets was significantly delayed?
If the answers to number 2,3 & 4 are yes, then why would anyone start treatment with any drug other than AP26113?
Perhaps just wishful thinking.
2da - from my point of view the spread has usually been a function of the liquidity of the stock - the number of shares that trade easily in a day. As the liquidity dries up, the spread expands and volatility increases. As institutional ownership increase towards 100% in a mid cap stock like Ariad, this can increase the spread. Oh yes, I forgot. The spread is also a function of MM greed. JMHO
Ill - Great point and great chart.
Please correct me if I am wrong, from the way the on balance volume has been acting, it looks to me like there has been meaningful accumulation on pps weakness
Vid - No I don't mean kickbacks. There are just so many ways that a physician can benefit from the good graces of a big pharma.
Doug - Aggressive detailing is their only hope in advancing the use of
Bosulif. They just want to get patients on it because it takes so long to switch out.
Now, what does aggressive detailing mean? You already know.
Doug, this is an interesting two-sided RBC summary. Surprised that they did not mention the newly authorized 450 million level along with Dr, Berger's remarks on Genentech's journey to acquisition by Roche. The 450 million would allow for Ariad to be acquired in the same way since they now have the 150 million excess shares needed for just such a slow moving take over. I think that Dr. Berger's remarks on the subject have to be taken seriously.
I will take that as a statement saying that you have no proof of GS shorting Ariad
adreamer - In the absence of any proof, I call you on that statement as pure BS. If you are going to assert such a claim about GS shorting Ariad stock please prove it. GS has every reason to be long Ariad. The first and foremost is that it is a great investment.
In the absence of evidence to the contrary, I prefer to think of GS as simply long 6 million shares without any other plot.
Even though the pps has not done anything noteworthy in recent months, institutional ownership is at an all time high as of 6/30/13 of 86%. Of interest might be the 4,071,193 increase by Goldman Sachs to a total of 6,568,570 shares.
Lax - Go to your mail box and then to the box marked deleted posts and follow the directions.
I doubt that they can be directly bought, however, they can be hired upon retirement - and Novartis is much more likely to use such a tactic than let's say Ariad.
Your thoughts about why the pps is off is just another opinion yet you somehow expect that it should be treated like a fact. IMHO, the FDA response is relatively meaningless in the big picture, particularly, since it can probably be reversed in due time. The overall market for biotechs today is more the story than anything to do with Ariad.
It's just a big down day for biotechs today so Ariad drop is not a market comment on anything. It will just take a little while for more implications to be factored in to the price.
Well how does "imbk" translate? - "I am back".
The blue print for the not too distant future seems to be at hand from Dr. Berger himself. Dr. Berger would surely want the full merits of Iclusig, 113 and the pipeline to be priced in fairly - so a delay in a final takeover could be some time away. The only question now is how Ariad's version of such a deal would be structured. I doubt that Dr Berger would go for a current market price for the initial buy.
July 9 2013 - It's at the top of your post.
Why would Novartis/Roche have suspended patient recruitment like it says in the Phase I Clinical listing that you have? Perhaps we might have to keep our eye on it for quite a while.
heldnova -glad you made the point, you have the credibility. I can't find anything either. A long ago smear is till a smear.
The hedge funds are doing it again hypothesis just doesn't make sense to me. The history of Ariad's pps includes a very tradeable legacy of sell the news. Therefore, I would expect day traders and other savy traders to nail the morning high on a good news day. And if the selling gathered momentum to keeping selling into the drop as long panic to hold on to gains. That kind of trading is not some kind of manipulation. Eventually the pps will reflect the earnings prospects. It just won't happened as quickly as we would like.
Sounds like a certainty. GIven that ONXX has already rejected the bid and is actively soliciting higher bids, the next couple of weeks could be interesting. Valuations for all biotechs may be marked up for a while.