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24601: I don't base my prediction...
of TCG Movement failure at all on what is or isn't happening at Dell. This is presumably an "enterprise" thing, as you say. However, I wonder if there's a single enterprise that is actually implementing TPMs in any scale at all. I seriously doubt it. In fact, I doubt if WAVE itself uses its own so-called product.
dig: Dell lists the product...
but their lack of enthusiasm is rather telling, I think. This is a market-driven company, Dell. They respond to what the market says it wants. The fact that the sales force is completely clueless about TPMs reveals that nobody out there buying computers is all that interested.
So, again, I'm predicting the utter collapse of the TCG movement. But, hey, ICBW.
Dig: I never said IT folks...
don't want to dominate the machinery. Certainly they do. However...
a. It's questionable how much dominating the use of TPM allows them to do. I see domination, if you want to use that word, mainly accruing to the benefit of the entrenched software provider, content provider, etc., etc., etc. Very little to the IT manager, other than the additional hassle-factor he adds to his war chest.
b. Full scale adoption of the TPM is not something that companies are going to allow the IT guy to decide without major opposition. There's going to be a finance guy asking for a bottom-line rationale for going this route. And, dig? I've yet to hear one that is even close to convincing.
dig: Stated "facts" from a Wave CC...
have proven to be balderdash on many occasions. For example the times Steven has been quoted as saying, "we are shipping" this that or the other. If it came out of Steven's mouth, it's more than likely a figment of his imagination or a just another lie. I'll believe what's reported to the SEC and even that requires some skepticism.
Licensing revenue could come from anything. It could be Wave licensing the juggler logo to the family horse farm. It could be deals with garment center sharks. It could be anything. Product sales are a little less subject to manipulation. And dig? There's no denying the bottom line there. Six months and Zip. Nothing. Zero.
Dig: My position on WAVE...
is that it's a pure play on TCG albeit one burdened by an egregious amount of malgovernance baggage, but that is not going to be the final nail in the Wave coffin. The reality is that TCG is not going to make it. There's nothing trusted about the Trusted Computing Group. Other than the fact that they can be trusted to try to defend and/or expand their own entrenched positions by hook or by crook. I have yet to read a convincing value proposition to the IT guy in the enterprise market to purchase this thing. The argument that they don't want to be the last makes a tiny bit of sense, but not until there's someone of note who is actually implementing this thing on a major scale. And Dig? Nobody's doin that. And nobody's goin to either. It's my opinion (and I believe I was among the first to say this) that the whole thing is going to go down in flames as a giant industry-wide boondoggle. But, hey, you know what I always say. ICBW.
The other item of interest...
in the Wave 10Q was that the monolith known as WaveXpress managed to cut its losses somewhat. For the six months ended June 30 it achieved a staggering $17,000 in revenues and is presently only losing a half million per quarter. What is the present excuse for subsidizing this joke of an enterprise? Or do the Wavoids mainly ignore it now? I'm curious, but not curious enough to actually go back and read much of the drivel on that other board. So, if you don't mind, could you give me a briefing?
DIG: This belongs on the WAVX board...
of course, but apparently I remain in the slammer, presumably under a life-with-no-chance-of-parole sentence for some infraction that I don't recall.
Anyway, forgive me for not paying much attention to the WAVX saga lately, but a cursory review of the last 10Q reveals that for the first six months of 2005 Wave's product sales were zero. That's right. NOTHING. Could you give me the present Wavoid rationalization for a zero take-up rate? Is it being blamed on delayed reporting from OEM's? Is it because Dell doesn't get it? I'm curious how the cult defends such a blatant failure to achieve any market penetration.
Ciao.
24601: And yer point is?
Maybe the folks in Lee can team up with another garment center shark and do another brilliant "development deal", thereby garnishing some sort of bookable revenue?
Y'all are toast, to coin a phrase. Hiring what's-his-face to "cover" the stock was desperation-time. No one is fool enough to take seriously the recommendations of a paid analyst. It is a tawdry practice and the world knows it. But, of course, the boys in Lee are not above these little devices.
There's nothin happenin, John. Not an enterprise in the world is seriously using trusted platform modules. None. Nobody. Not even, most likely, WAVE Systems. Oh yes, there may be some revenues--from "development deals" or the like. But there ain't any sales. As Snackman likes to say, "this is a done deal."
Ciao!
Matt: If it's savvy investors you want...
your favorite Cult-Meister, Captain Snackman, is now down $4,932,000 from his WAVX high of $5,000,000. His favorite stock closed today at 68 cents. Which, I believe, is a multi-year (at least six years) low. (I can't get the numbers past 1999, so I'm not sure how many years' low it's at.)
I, on the other hand, sold WAVX at $14 and change. I booked a 30% profit on my investment. Something tells me there aren't many Wavoid longs who can match that. Oh, John will say that he can, but he's very short on specifics. Not that I don't believe him. I understand he probably doesn't want to disclose what his sale dates were because his detractors might track back and see what he was saying on those dates. Some of us don't think it's entirely kosher to be praising a firm while you are secretly selling it. (Too Gerry+Milesish.)
Anyway, you might want to offer the Wavoids a discount for early extensions of their subscriptions. Something tells me they're not going to be here that much longer.
About time for another Snackman crying jag...
and his thirteenth resignation from Cult-Meistership. Apparently that $40 million revenue projection of his for 2005 is not gaining much traction.
The usual script is Snackman tearfully quits his post, triggering the 73 man crew to protest his decision and praise him for, oh, twenty-five or thirty messages, by which time he's already forgotten he resigned.
I think, however, the curtain is about to finally fall. Wavoid Nation will be no more. All in my not-so-humble opinion, of course.
dig: Actually, I sorta doubt...
that Jean ValJean has Captain Snackman membermarked. Of course, ICBW.
P.S. Those who buy in here are throwing good money after bad. This ship's goin down. There's nothin comin in to WAVX's coffers. They won't do $50K in sales in Q1, 2005.
In honor of the 73 Wavoids...
(who have membermarked Captain Snackman):
Seventy-three men sailed up to the San Francisco Bay
Rolled off of their ship, and here's what they had to say
"We're callin' everyone to ride along to another shore
We can laugh our lives away and have dough galore!
But no one heard them callin', no one bought at all
'Cause they were too busy watchin' that old ticker fall
As a storm was blowin' out on the peaceful sea
Seventy-three men sailed off into misery
Ride, captain ride upon your misery ship
Be amazed at the dupes you've sucked in on your trip
Ride captain ride upon your misery ship
On your way to a world your cohorts wish they'd missed.
Matt: Want to make even more off the cult?
I imagine you could sell the email addresses of the 73 people who have membermarked Snackman to just about every con artist on the web. Talk about yer mother lode!
Ciao!
73 people have membermarked Snackman...
an individual who has held an investment from a value of $5 million down to $85,000. That's a 98% drop for those of you deficient in math. All the while the man has championed a management team that has failed time and time again, missed two revenue projections by in excess of 98%, paid themselves more than they've taken in in revenues, hired every relative in sight, and dumped option-purchase stock at every opportunity. Which explains why each and every one of those 73 individuals richly deserve to lose every penny they have invested in WAVX.
Snackman likes to quote Steven...
with his "follow the supply chain" remark, made about a half dozen years ago. The problem is, that doesn't actually make sense. If you're in business presumably you want to sell things. This company has never NEVER understood its market. In fact, it's defined and re-defined its market about twenty times since I've been watching.
For Steven to have predicted $5 million in revenues by Q4, 2004, he must have thought somebody was going to be buying something. For the life of me, I can't imagine who he thought his customers were going to be and how they were going to justify spending the type of money it would take to produce that amount of revenue. Somebody essplain it to me. Otherwise I'm just gonna have to assume the guy is either a blatant liar and crook or completely inept in addition to being plagued with delusions of grandeur. (I favor the latter alternative, by the way.)
Crash and burn time, boys and girls. Y'all deserve it.
Zen-boy: There is no business plan...
other than bob-and-weave, mislead-and-overpromise, demo-and-partner, talk-talk-talk, wink-and-nod, and the most favorite activity - gorge-and-gorge-some-more.
Of course it is a relevant question you pose. How could a potential customer at the end of chain even begin to evaluate whether TPMs were worth investigating without a ballpark estimate of what the cost is? The answer? They can't and they won't. Which is all this TCG stuff remains unsaleable. It is still far too nebulous to business people. You know, the people who will have to pay for this stuff? In theory, anyway.
I believe it was Lincoln who said you can fool some of the people all of the time, but even the Wavoids will only take it for a decade or so. Crash and burn time, zen. It won't be pretty.
Go-Kite defends himself...
"...EDIT -- by the way digspace. Toshiba, Fujitsu and HP marketing all denied answering my questions about their newly announced TPM machines. The article was going to be much larger in scope, with multiple machine brands being listed, but since they didn't get back to me after two attempts each (Dell didn't on the first attempt either, but they did on the second with an apology), I realized why HP, Toshiba and others have limited press coverage - they don't get back to journalists. So I changed the scope to be a focus on Dell's new machines. Why not, considering the rest of them acted as though they didn't want me to write about their new notebooks released around ISF timeframe. So, if you're upset that there is no HP machines highlighed, or others, you can blame their marketing groups. It was their own fault."
Here's a hint, Go-Kite: These folks don't treat you like a regular journalist for one reason: YOU'RE NOT! You have zero credentials and you've already demonstrated you have no regard for any ethical standards regarding disclosure of material interests.
fung derf: I'm not writing for this board...
The Wavoids read my stuff, even if they have to go out of their way to find it, thanks to the harlot Matt.
WAVOID JOURNALISM...
on the march, once again. The linked article, written by one of the most prolific of Wavoids, Go-Kitesurf, is yet another example of the lengths to which this cult will go to reel new folks in.
Consider:
1. This same Wavoid protested very loudly when Ms. Ellen Sheng filed a Reuters report that the Wavoids considered unduly harsh.
2. This same Wavoid questioned the ]i]ethics of Ms. Sheng.
3. This same Wavoid claimed himself to be a prize-winning journalist (although the specific prizes were never named).
4. This same Wavoid previously published an article--without byline (CAD-CAM Forum Staff Writer)--in an on-line magazine (using the term loosely) in which he spoke in glowing terms of the products and services of Wave Systems never once acknowledging the fact that he had a material financial interest in that company.
And now, Mr. Go-Kite has done it again. Read the article. Notice the blue-lines, notice the hype. Look for some disclosure that the author has a financial interest in WAVE Systems. It is not there.
This is a cult, my friends. Certain of its members will not hesitate to behave in a grossly unethical manner. Obviously. And how do the Wavoids react? The applaud the article. They post links to the article.
There is no shame among this crowd. They deserve what is about to happen to them. Richly.
http://www.cadcamforum.net/dirt/tpm-security.html
24601: You have been very quiet lately...
I suspect you are beginning to realize that this investment of yours is poised on the precipice.
This is a cult stock, John. Management has been in the hands of amateurs since the day Peter stepped aside and put sonny-boy in his place. The family has been gorging at the trough for years now--all at the expense of the investors.
The idea that a CEO could make a $20 million revenue projection--based apparently on thin air--and miss by 95% plus, again, with the result being a large collective ho hum from the shareholders is truly mind-boggling.
Is it nice to say the man is completely incompetent? No. But it is the truth. Either he is incompetent or he is something much worse. One day we may know. Or not. In any event, you all have no alternative but to approve the increase in authorized shares. When this thing gets up a head of steam to the South-side, the boys are going to need authorization to sell a boatload.
Cheers.
Matt: IHUB falsely advertises...
when it says, "Investors Hub is a fast-growing financial hub that empowers individual investors with real-time insights into the fast-moving equity markets."
I think it should carry the following caveats, just to be on the safe side:
Investors Hub is a fast-growing financial hub that empowers certain individual investors with a limited dose of real-time insights into the fast-moving equity markets. We do not pretend to be objective in any way. We will favor the views of paying customers over the non-paying ones. It makes no difference whether the views of paying customers and/or board monitors are logical, intelligent, or even minimally cogent. As long as their dues are paid, they will obtain preferential treatment. Board monitors with "hot" boards will be allowed wide latitude of discretion in deleting "off-topic" messages (otherwise known as bearish ones). Cults welcome.
Don't bother to thank me. Ciao!
OCCAM: If so, he communicated poorly...
but, then, I suppose that is possible. If he meant to castigate the individual for his obviously raging homophobia, then good for him. Given the style of humor that permeates this particular "jailhouse" it would be somewhat out of character, however. In any event, I have zero respect for anyone so willing to prostitute himself to a cult in the way Matt has obviously done. Not that he cares.
Why? Because you're obviously a dimwit...
the word faggot is pejorative. People who use it have an attitude, one that is made clear by the use of that and similar words. "Forget the words" is idiotic advice. But have a nice day, anyway.
Matt: The term faggot is pejorative...
and civil people do not use it as a synonym for gay. Possibly you knew this. But then again, possibly not. Have a nice day.
zen-boy: Passion is overrated...
as a quality to be desired in your CEO. Especially when said CEO's passion leads him to make ludicrous cash flow projections on which, presumably, the company bases its budgeting.
I think y'all been had, zen-boy. You. Weby. The rest of the cult. You trusted a bunch of people who put their own interests ahead of the shareholders. People who paid themselves lavish salaries. Granted themselves stock options up the kazoo. Issued fat bonus checks that they happily concede are not related to performance. Rented Paris apartments. Put their children to work. Etc., etc., etc.
The thing is, you deserve this result. Richly. Because you've all been sheep. Now it's time for the shearing.
More Wavoid Idiocy, courtesy of zen-boy...
The cult debates whether the CEO's credibility is harmed when he pronounces that MSFT's new OS will require TPM's in a public forum and--three weeks later--the opposite proves to be true.
It's almost as if this individual had NOT stated a little over one year ago that the company would be at cash flow break-even by Q4, 2004. That's $5 million per quarter. Versus the reality of approximately 4 percent of that number. Mind-boggling trust in a silver-spoon boy without a lick of business education and essentially zero qualifying experience.
It's over boys and girls. Time for the implosion.
Matt: You are a harlot for WAVOIDs...
but I imagine this little enterprise is not profitable enough to put you above the trivial amount you rake in from the cult. Witness today's performance from the so-called board moderator in which he accuses a poster of lying while demonstrating for about the thousandth time that he can scarcely even read, let alone understand any facet of the technology he so whole-heartedly endorses.
I think your harlotry will come back to haunt you Matt. If the cult is ever found culpable and a certain cult-meister's email is perused by the folks at the SEC or by class action attorneys, you might find yourself entangled in something a little messier than you're used to dealing with.
You could always attempt to become more honest, but I doubt that will happen. Anyway, cheerio!
Phil: I prefer not to enrich Matt...
if I can help it. Besides, at least my messages are left alone here, rather than having the idiot Snackman delete them at his whim.
P.S. Snackman has ridden his WAVX holdings down from $5 million to $100K or so. I haven't heard anyone make a very convincing case that he's not an idiot. He is, on occasion, an amiable idiot. I'll give him that.
TCG is FINREAD redux...
It's all wishful thinking by a group of techies whose main interest is in dreaming up an excuse for another product cycle. The problem is, the customers don't exist. Don't now, never will.
cmf: if you're still holding WAVX...
you aren't the trader I thought you were. This thing is over. "Trusted Computing" is an idea that ain't gonna fly. Enterprises aren't buyin it, that's fer damn sure. One gigantic pig-in-a-poke. The boys in Lee milked it fer all it's worth, but the handwriting's on the wall. Too bad they couldn't have made work for another generation or two of silver-spoon boys and girls. So sad.
P.S. Weby can't stand to read me anymore (mainly because I've been right for so long) so I'm sure he won't see this. I'm thinking the Boswell-to-Awk's-Johnson is just a tad much. More like Harry-to-Awk's Lloyd!
It won't be me...
who sues you Matt. You are merely a whore and cult facilitator in my view. It will be one of the dozen or so class action firms who have already lined up against WAVX and are waiting for a shoe to fall. Matt, you will get dragged in if WAVX turns out to be what I think it is. Don't say I didn't warn ya, old boy. Ciao!
Matt: I think you may be personally liable...
along with Bob Z for your arbitrary censorship of dissenting points of view (such as mine) when the time comes that certain companies implode.
I'm thinking a creative class action attorney takes the position that this "forum" is advertised as operating under a certain set of rules designed to provide investors with a fair and realistic picture of a stock's pros and cons on the basis of debate.
By circumventing your own rules, you favor one view (the bullish one) over the other. You do so for personal gain. Yes, Matt, I think you've made a serious error in judgment. If there's blood in the water, I think you'll be surprised how many folks find themselves in serious legal trouble. And Matt? The fact that you've been a cheap whore will prove to be entirely irrelevant.
Just my opinion. Of course, I'm not a lawyer.
dig space: Have you considered the obvious...
explanation for WAVX needing to expand their number of authorized shares?
I believe they recognize that a significant drop in share price is a distinct possibility in the not-very-distant future.
If that happens they all of a sudden butt up against the ceiling of authorized shares the next time they need to go to the well.
And, dig? I suspect they actually expect even the docile and obedient cultists to start unloading when it becomes evident that no one is buying this pig-in-a-poke. Which will be within the next two quarters, I believe.
dig space: I think the cartel...
has less power over its market than you and the Wavoids believe. I don't see the world moving to Trusted Computing, regardless of how much Dell and/or MSFT would like it to. But, hey, maybe I'll be wrong!
In any event, I trust Sprague & Co. to milk this thing until it's bone dry. And, of course, I trust the Wavoids to sit by like the docile lambs that they are and applaud the pillaging of their own village.
Ciao.
dig space: I can't believe you bought...
your way out of here. Where is your pride? What would Sean Penn say about this?
P.S. Nigel and I account for two out of eight.
P.P.S. I'm afraid I've lost interest in the Wavoid saga. However, I still see absolutely zero sign of the world becoming even the slightest bit interested in "trusted computing".
P.P.P.S. On the other hand, as long as there is an even remotely plausible "story" to tell, the cult will continue to blather on.
24601: My vision is 20/20...
which, compared to the Wavoid average of 20/340, is quite good.
Seriously, John, don't you think it's about time the boys in Lee pulled the plug on WaveXpress? I mean, true, they've cornered the market in Lithuania and Romania, but that's a total of about 12 personal computers. Isn't this getting just a little embarrassing for you folks? Or is there no end to the cult's docility?
P.S. I'm beginning to suspect your friend Buffet-guy is part of the Chicago Wavoid crowd. Perhaps FoW or his equally lame-brained brother. This faction is what makes the Wavoid group a cult. The endless hyperbole, the idiotic generalizations, the eternal connecting of imaginary dots. It's amazing what otherwise rational persons will put up with.
P.P.S. Could someone please explain to Go-Kite that the collection of cash has nothing to do with the recognition of deferred revenues? I'm sure this gross ignorance will not prevent him from lecturing on the topic, but it's like accounting 101, for God's sake.
Interesting tidbit from WAVX's 10K...
which takes a little piecing together with the 10Q of the prior quarter, since the 4th quarter's results are not stated separately.
WaveXpress revenues, Q4, 2004 - $9,906
WaveXpress expenses, Q4, 2004 - $634,354
WaveXpress NOI, Q4, 2004 - $(624,448)
Based on a 13 week quarter, that's $48K per week the company is squandering on the never-ending money-pit that is WaveXpress. Assuming a 5 day workweek (and pardon me while I snicker just a bit), that's almost $10K a day this company is pissing away on Peter and Michael's ridiculous gig. I think even the Rigas family would be ashamed of this endeavor.
Morning Matt! I see the cult is in an uproar...
what with the cult stock (WAVX) being down 17% and all. But not to worry. The folks will hang in there. They will still subscribe. They need Snackman to tell them next quarter is gonna be great! They need Weby and Awk to predict half-million dollar revenue streams (even if they're totally insane to do so).
Most of all, Ace Cult Defender, aka 24601, will be there to, well, defend. He is big on forgiveness, you see. The company floats a stock issue 20% under market? No problem. We forgive them. The execs need to fly to Arizona for a poker-fest? No problem. Management grants itself a new round of fat bonuses? Well, that hasn't happened yet, or it hasn't been disclosed yet anyway. But we forgive them in advance.
This is cult life, Matt. Cults need their defenders just like they need their facilitators. And that's where you come in, Matt. Just don't sell yourself too cheap.
Cheers!
P.S. to digspace: Sure. I'll wager eternal posting rights here and everywhere else that the company does not make $1 million in revenues in 2005. But I don't want to wager with you, because you're about the only long worth reading anymore. Perhaps John would like the bet.
dig: send Matt a twenty dollar bill...
and he'll let you run the Q&A board. Whimpering will not get you out of here. It ain't what motivates old Matt.
And now, as to the WAVX saga. When a company does $100K in revenue--and essentially zero of that is sales (all "development" deals, etc., etc., etc.), during the period in which that company's CEO has projected $5 million in revenues, it's time to face facts. This guy is either nuts or a liar. Or possibly a little bit of both.
Dig, there's no way this thing does even a million in revenues in 2005. It ain't gonna happen. The scientists might be brilliant, for all I know. But management is utterly incompetent. They haven't a clue about managing a company. Compared to WAVE, the guys at Xerox were management geniuses.
This thing isn't worth a dime. And the market will eventually realize it.
24601: While this may be true...
as you expressed, "At least some of the discount below the recent market price is just the price of moving a multi-million-share block in one piece."
The problem is:
a. They keep doing this and,
b. They use the proceeds to fund fat salaries, perks, and bonuses. One must ask the question whether a company-funded gambling junket to Arizona was a worthy use of limited resources.
The amusing thing is there is no end in sight. The company's shareholders (the cult) are so docile that they will tolerate any amount of executive compensation as long as there are a few fresh promises they can delude themselves with.
You are sheep, John. And you've just been sheared. Again.