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Yes, you posted yesterday. He happens to pst it again.
Great summary and very well put.
I gave you enough and explained. If you don't want to accept my argument, that is fine. Inventory is inventory. The fact is that there is no channels to be stuffed. Inventory in Intel owned warehouse is tightly controlled by Intel.
You are most welcome to your opinion.
Did you add anything new? I don't think so. In fact you have shifted the argument.
You can create a lot of what ifs. Yes if demand falls off the cliff, any inventory built is too much. If the demand is so strong then whatever Intel build it will not be enough.
Intel is stating seasonal and normal situation. To support that there is just enough to support that.
That is not the argument. It started with channel stuffing. Whether the demand is there or not, it is absolute clear that there is no channel stuffing and there are no channels to be stuffed.
Nothing new but doubts about AMD survival are increasing significantly.
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AMD Is Falling Further Behind
By Ashlee Vance November 06, 2014
AMD Is Falling Further Behind
Illustration by 731
“AMD is now at a tipping point.” When Bernstein Research (AB) issued that note in October, the PC chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had announced another round of layoffs, changed chief executives, and delivered its latest dim quarterly results. “This is the right step to ensure we prioritize our resources and engineering investments,” said new CEO Lisa Su, adding that AMD would continue to diversify its business away from PC chips. Wall Street analysts didn’t buy it. Bernstein was among a handful of researchers who wondered aloud how much longer AMD would be around. “We cannot help but question the intermediate-term viability of AMD’s client PC and server processor business,” wrote Craig Berger, an analyst at market researcher Hedgeye.
For decades, 45-year-old AMD’s principal business has been desktops and notebooks, and the company’s chips have often been the cheapest and most efficient. It’s never managed to take much more than 20 percent of the chip market away from Intel (INTC) and has been losing ground in recent years. In its most recent quarter, AMD accounted for 5.2 percent of PC chip revenue, according to researcher IDC. AMD has less than $1 billion in cash on hand for the first time since 2001, and its share price is nearing its low. “AMD has chopped its operating expense spending in half in just five years,” wrote Berger. “That cannot bode well for future product quality.”
The company’s last radical move came in 2008, when it split in two. AMD continued to design chips, while spinoff GlobalFoundries took over the factories pumping out the silicon. The idea was that AMD would be freed from the massive costs of building and running the plants, while GlobalFoundries could court other customers to keep the plants working at peak efficiency.
STORY: Intel Goes Gadget Crazy
AMD has managed to sell its chips to Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) for their video game consoles, but it fumbled the server market, where Intel dominates, and the tablet and mobile markets, owned mostly by Qualcomm (QCOM). Regrouping would require billions of dollars—and AMD doesn’t have the money. “It will not take much at this point to push them over the edge given the company would now seem to have pulled most of the levers available to them to stay afloat,” Bernstein wrote.
Things don’t look much better for GlobalFoundries. The company, owned by an investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government, has spent more than $10 billion over the past few years to upgrade its plants. In October it agreed to take on the unprofitable chipmaking operations of IBM (IBM), which will pay GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion over three years. That will help further two of GlobalFoundries’ aims: boosting chip production volume and raising cash. A planned Abu Dhabi factory has been put on hold indefinitely, because there isn’t enough chip demand to justify building it. “GlobalFoundries continues to review its global capacity and expansion plans to ensure they are fully aligned with our customers’ needs,” company spokesman Travis Bullard said in a statement.
Abu Dhabi would have to spend tens of billions more on GlobalFoundries to try to keep up with pressure from the rest of the industry. Intel, which used to make chips only for itself, is getting into the contract chipmaking game. Samsung (005930:KS) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) are investing more in their plants and winning big business from Apple (AAPL) and other customers. The IBM deal could make sense as part of a plan to make GlobalFoundries an attractive acquisition for one of the other chipmakers, likely Samsung.
STORY: IBM's Artificial Intelligence Problem, or Why Watson Can't Get a Job
Although AMD isn’t broke yet, “we now feel required to wait for tangible signs of core business stability,” writes Matthew Ramsay, an analyst for Canadian brokerage Canaccord Genuity. As AMD’s position shrinks, the new story will be Intel vs. Samsung, each with tens of billions on the table and everything up for grabs.
Here is an article from Alphs about downgrade of Intel by Bernstein analyst.
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Intel: Another Fire Drill By Bernstein This Time
Nov. 5, 2014 2:39 AM ET | 22 comments | About: Intel Corporation (INTC)
Disclosure: The author is long INTC. (More...)
Summary
Intel was downgraded to sell by Bernstein after the close of the market Tuesday.
The reason was a very unlikely inventory build in the "the channel".
We might have very good news coming on November 20.
After the market close Tuesday Bernstein's Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) permabear, Stacy Rasgon, downgraded Intel to sell, where he was during the Intel price move from about $20 to $30. Because he was at a sell at that time, presumably at least some of his clients felt some safety in shorting Intel. So Bernstein's call, if followed, not only caused his clients to miss a 30% rise in the price of Intel, but some probably took gas on short positions. After all, "sells" are so rare among analysts these days that a simple "sell" is tantamount to advising a short position.
So in less than a month we have had three questionable calls that have affected the semiconductor industry as a whole and Intel in particular. First Microchip technology warned that their "crystal ball" and "canaries" indicated a general downturn for semiconductors, then we had Intersil, a company that can't figure out whether the computer business is good or bad for them, or why it is either, decided to blame their warning on lower PC builds.
Microchip pretty much admitted that their canary theory was a bunch of bird droppings.
Now we have Stacy Rasgon worrying for you about an inventory build "in the channel". It is worth noting that Stacy's upgrade last June caused the stock price to do exactly…nothing. Tuesday's downgrade, in the thinly traded aftermarket, seemed to cause the stock price to decline about $.50.
Since the 2000-2001 "Tech Wreck" debacle, Intel, and others, have become much more sophisticated in their supply chain management. Intel has just-in-time fulfillment centers in all major geographies. When a customer needs parts they draw from these inventories as needed, no more, no less. The last thing that Intel needs is uncommitted inventory in customers' hands. Those parts have a nasty way of coming back at the most inopportune times. Because of this it is virtually impossible for a surprise inventory build in the channel. Distributors can be used is some cases, but only if the end customer is financially shaky. That isolates Intel from potential bad debt write-offs.
Another point is that in this stage of the product cycle, i.e., a full range of Broadwell soon to be released, Intel doesn't need stray chunks of Haswell parts hiding in the nooks and crannies of the supply chain. So, they get particularly vigilant at this stage. Given all this, I'm going to run with "No Inventory Build". Sorry Stacy.
I think that in our hearts we know that the stock market is a snake pit. The stock market is a self-regulating body. That means that there are damn few laws that can bring the SEC down on anybody. Blatant cases of insider trading have got a few cheaters whacked, but HFT (High Frequency Trading) is tolerated and it is just another form of insider trading (front-running). So, manipulation in the stock market is rampant, but not illegal. If manipulation were illegal Jim Cramer should be cooling his jets in a cross bar hotel. He admitted to manipulating the market on a widely distributed video.
Listening to analysts, with the exception of a very few, seems to be a fool's errand. There are writers on Seeking Alpha with far better performance records than the best of Wall Street analysts.
So, what's going on here? On November 20 Intel is hosting its investor meeting. This is where market analysts get all the latest dope on how the business is running and likely to be running during the next year or two. Intel has had no product press releases since well before the third quarter earnings announcement. During the earnings conference call Intel CFO Stacy Smith deferred several questions to the investor meeting. It is clear that Intel will make no comments about new hardware or business initiatives, bookings or shipments, either good or bad until about a week before that meeting. Basically Intel clams up tight before the analyst meetings, saving as much information as they can for that major event.
If there were to be any manipulation, the period from the earnings announcement to about a week before the investor meeting would be an ideal time to do it, knowing that Intel is not about to refute rumors that would blow the manipulators out of the water.
What possible motive could Stacy Rasgon have for downgrading Intel in the face of news like this:
Dell has increased their PC shipment nearly 20% during the third calendar quarter of 2014; this increase may be attributed to a collection of different factors. Dell has a diverse portfolio of devices and enterprise solutions.
Does anyone really think that Dell is the only one with big numbers on PCs?
Stacy Rasgon has been wrong about Intel for a long time, he has been right for only about the last five months, citing "several" catalysts for the stock five months ago. Apparently those catalysts have gone poof, or maybe Rasgon simply doesn't understand the semiconductor business and the Intel supply chain. More likely he was "told" that Intel was a sell so that some important client(s) could get on this gravy train on the cheap.
I might point out that 6.7 million Intel share traded exactly on the market close Tuesday. Yes, at exactly 16:00:00, and those shares traded at the ask of $34.54, indicating a buy motivated trade. That 6.7 million share is about four times what could be explained by the Intel share buyback.
I can't profess to understand precisely what is going on here, but a smart money buy of 6.7 million shares minutes before a Stacy Rasgon downgrade doesn't smell right. By November 20 we will see if Stacy is on to anything or if Intel has a few product surprises of their own up their sleeve.
I'm betting on the Intel side.
Very long in Intel LEAPS and I even have a nice position in Nov 28 35 calls in order to capture any good news coming from the investor meeting.
What a surprise!!. At least he is admitting to be wrong. Give him credit for that. But on a bigger front, these folks are self proclaimed experts but have no clue of what is going on in semi process technology. Just blame Intel on every turn.
I believe Intel strategy to invest into Chinese companies partly owned by Chinese Govt. is the way to go. Only time will tell but Intel was one of the first few companies to set up its shop and provide design help.
You are completely ignorant of how JIT works. Intel sets up warehouses at customer sites or OEM manufacturer partners. Inventory is withdrawn as required-normally weekly bucket based on a particular production run.
At other times, inventory belongs to Intel and not OEMS.
It is not magic but mere fact of life.
I also did the same. I wrote Nov. $33.0 and $32.50 puts. Also bought some shares and wrote covered calls for Nov. $34.00
With QCOM earnings disappointing, it will put pressure on Intel shares as well.
This product review looks great but surely it is on the expensive side. No performance issue as posted by others here.
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Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro: Very good Ultrabook (review)
Summary: This new laptop is the very definition of the term Ultrabook.
James Kendrick
By James Kendrick for Mobile News | November 4, 2014 -- 12:28 GMT (04:28 PST)
Yoga 3 Pro by Lenovo
Ultrabook is the term Intel coined for thin, light laptops that are designed for the mobile professional. The term has faded somewhat with the appearance of hybrids or 2-in-1 laptops, but most are still familiar with what makes an Ultrabook.
The Yoga 3 Pro from Lenovo is the very definition of an Ultrabook, at half an inch thick and weighing less than three pounds. To achieve the svelte form, Lenovo made three interesting choices in the design.
Lenovo is pushing the envelope with the Yoga 3 Pro, a thin laptop with a high-resolution screen that rotates 360 degrees. The laptop is a joy to use due to the portability and good performance.
Three wise design choices
To get the Yoga 3 Pro down to the desired size, Lenovo made two unique design choices and another common one that work together to keep the laptop as thin as possible.
Having used the Yoga 3 Pro for a while, it is apparent that Lenovo made the right call with the Core M.
As a premium Windows laptop, buyers expect decent performance. Most OEMs go with an Intel Core i3, i5, or i7 processor, but that requires good heat dissipation and usually takes a toll on battery life. To deal with this, Lenovo has put an Intel Core M processor in the Yoga 3 Pro.
The Core M processor is designed by Intel to be a better mobile solution for laptops. It generates less heat than the more powerful Core ix processors, while still providing performance that is adequate for most applications.
I've used the Yoga 3 Pro for a while and it is apparent that Lenovo made the right call with the Core M. While it's not a fast processor, it handles typical work tasks with ease. It does this while generating very little heat, a big advantage over the Core ix processors.
Lenovo has confirmed to me that the laptop has a small fan, but it's either so quiet (or rarely comes on) that I haven't detected it during use. I thought the Core M in the Yoga must be fanless, it's so quiet. Operation has only generated a slight amount of heat, so little that it's never been a concern in my testing.
The other unique design choice by Lenovo is the "watch band" style screen hinge. Having six hinges for the lid allows Lenovo to keep the Yoga 3 Pro as thin as it is without compromising durability. The unique appearance of this hinge evokes either a love or hate reaction from those who see the laptop. I find it to be OK.
Operating the lid through the supported 360 degrees is smooth and feels very durable. The screen rotation permits using the Yoga as a laptop, stand, and tablet, as well as the tent mode that Lenovo is so proud of in its Yoga product line. The tent mode is an inverted V configuration that is comfortable for watching video and making presentations.
The third design choice that makes the Yoga 3 Pro work so well is the large bezel around the display. This is what allows Lenovo to spread the internal components around to keep the laptop so thin. This also yields a good space around the keyboard, which comes in handy when using the Yoga as a tablet.
Lenovo has covered the keyboard space with a textured rubbery material, which enhances the grip in tablet mode. It also supports handling the tablet without touching the exposed keys, which some folks don't like.
The big bezel makes the Yoga larger than many 13-inch laptops. When I first took it out of the box I thought the display must be 14 inches, and not the 13.3-inches I knew it to be. It's a good tradeoff, however, for the reasons stated.
Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro specs as reviewed:
Processor Intel Core M 5Y70 (1.1Ghz)
OS Windows 8.1
Display 13.3 inch (3,200 x 1,800); IPS
Memory 8GB
Storage 512GB SSD
Camera 720P (front)
Communications Wi-Fi (ac); Bluetooth 4.0
Ports 2- USB 3.0; microHDMI; audio; SD slot; DC-in w/ integrated USB 2.0
Audio JBL speakers (1.5W x 2)
Battery 44 WHr; 7.2 hours
Dimensions 13 x 9 x 0.5 inches
Weight 2.6lbs
The display on the Yoga 3 Pro is impressive. It displays at a resolution of 3200 x 1800. It's bright at 300 nits, although highly reflective. The IPS display has wide viewing angles to support using the laptop in virtually any environment.
The screen is one of the reasons the Yoga 3 Pro works so well as a tablet. It's easy to see and to work by touch. The thin form and light weight play a role in this, too.
The keyboard on the Yoga 3 Pro is typical of Lenovo. The keys have enough travel to provide tactile feedback for touch typists. The key layout yields no surprises. It is better than the keyboards found on most laptops, although not the best from Lenovo.
The trackpad is large enough to be good for operating the interface. It works smoothly and the clickability is decent. The combination of trackpad and touchscreen make operating Windows 8.1 slick and easy.
While the Core M provides better battery life than the Core ix processors, the battery life on the Yoga 3 Pro is on the borderline of acceptable.
The number of ports that Lenovo was able to cram in such a thin laptop is impressive. These include two USB 3.0s, microHDMI, SD card slot, and audio in/out. The special USB port used with the power adapter for charging is also a USB 2.0 port. The charging cable and port are notched to prevent accidentally plugging it into the conventional USB ports.
The 512GB SSD in the review unit is very fast. Large file operations zip along at an impressive speed. The Yoga 3 Pro is also available with a 256GB SSD at a reduced cost.
While the Core M provides better battery life than the Core ix processors, the battery life on the Yoga 3 Pro is on the borderline of acceptable. Lenovo claims 7.2 hours, and testing shows slightly less with real-world usage.
That's long enough for typical daily use, but travelers may find the Yoga running empty at the end of long days on the road.
Good for mobile professionals
Battery concerns aside, the Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro is a good fit for mobile workers spending a lot of time out of the office. The thin and light laptop is easy to carry, and a versatile Windows Ultrabook. The display is outstanding, and the ability to use the Yoga 3 Pro as both a tablet and laptop is a bonus. The other two configurations possible with the screen’s ability to rotate 360 degrees allow efficient use in almost any situation.
The mobile processor keeps the Yoga running smoothly, even though it's not as powerful as other processors from Intel. This also keeps the laptop running as long as possible, although not as long as I’d like.
The Yoga 3 Pro is priced at $1,749 as reviewed, and a cheaper model is available with a 256GB SSD for $1,349. It is available from Lenovo and Best Buy.
Pros:
Good build quality
Extremely thin and light
Beautiful display
Four modes provide good versatility in the field
Cons:
Expensive
Battery life needs to be longer
Reviewer’s rating: 9 out of 10
Why don't you get it? or it is so difficult. Intel knows how much inventory is withdrawn from each of its warehouses-JIT. That is how business is done.
This disparity is going on for so long and still these analysts have no clue. No one has proven anything except their own agenda of bashing Intel.
Intel does shows as shipment till it is taken out by customer from its warehouse. Building inventory and keeping it in Intel's warehouses does not count sales.
These analysts will never learn.
In 3 weeks various reasons to bring the stock down so that these analysts can tell its customers to load on the stock.
I was wondering why the stock was down AH.
Another opportunity to buy.
Yes. It is reasonable to have receipt for some years but to keep for 10-12 years that is too much to expect. You are exceptional if you have kept them for so long.
Who has the receipt from that time? Good thing is that judge asked Intel to pay $4M for charity.
Yes. What do you think? It was company related(microsemi) and not the whole semi industry.
It did not take that long. The same day-two diverse opinion and comments. I saw interview on CNBC with Flextronics CEO and he stated that business is very good and stable.
It is very normal. These companies make power management and or discrete ICs. Every OEMs has multiple discrete vendors on its approved vendor list and these can be easily substituted without any redesign efforts. And I think that is happening. Intersil loosing shares to TI and others.
That is why Intel stock came back at the close or AH.
I had the same thoughts. It was Microsemi that brought about the fall of semis a few week back and now Intersil bring Intel/MU down.
Intel clearly explained in cc that inventory were on low side of the equation.
I wrote Nov. 31 puts and received $0.42. That is close to 1.5% for 24 days or so.
If assigned, I am ready to own share at $30.58.
With market up 200+ points this is not good at all.
Here is what I found out. Does not look like a valid reason.
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Intel drops after Intersil reports seeing high PC chip inventories • 2:34 PM
Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
Analog/power management IC vendor Intersil (ISIL -12.2%) posted a Q3 miss and light Q4 guidance, and forecast on its CC (transcript) its computing market sales would fall "as much as 20% to 25% sequentially in Q4."
Intersil attributed roughly half of the decline to to lower PC builds, and the other half to an inventory correction. "In computing, we're seeing an imbalance between inventory builds and end demand, which will impact Q4."
Intel (INTC -3.8%) is selling off on a day the Nasdaq is up 0.4%. The chip giant provided a Q3 beat and solid Q4 guidance two weeks ago, but sold off afterwards as analysts argued the gap between Intel's PC CPU sales growth and industry growth was partly due to an inventory build.
Intersil, whose ICs regulate power flows on PC motherboards, expects the inventory correction to be over by Q1, and is counting on the launch of Intel's 14nm Skylake platform (the successor to the just-launched Broadwell, due in 2H15) to provide a boost next year.
Read comments
To hedge bets in case it takes off. On other hand, Intel must have evaluated the technology and found it to be not valuable or it has its own similar to the one being proposed.
With this comments and the graph with out value on Y-axis, you can come to conclusion that yields are close to 22nm yield. Intel will like to get better yield and it is working on that.
Any one will come to the same conclusion.
Please go and check out cc. You have doubts and not me.
Keep on dreaming. Some dreams do become true.
It is based on Intel CEO said in conference call.
You will not be FPG if you did not find something wrong with Intel.
The same article showed Intel yield relative to 22nm 3D.
Just sickening.
I am surprised that Intel did not invest in this company with Intel capital. Both top guys worked for Intel before starting this company.
I don't think so. This article says the same. I used the word have not and have and someone else used affluent.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-26/apple-pay-face-challenge-as-cvs-rite-aid-reject-system.html
That is exactly the point. Does it work for previous iphone models? No as these previous models don't have NSF(?) technology.
It is segregating technology for have not and have.
I understand it and get it. But no one can allow some of these folks to bully the rest of us around.
If these folks have a hidden agenda, they can take it somewhere else.
Yes, it will work. But if CVS/Riteaid/Walgreen of the world don't accept ApplePay, then Apple need to learn from it and make sure it addresses issues raised by retailers.
It is a technology issue which has some relevance to Intel as it it is in tablets and will be soon in phones.
There is a news that some of the retailers like CVS/RiteAid have stopped accepting applepay. It is new and we need to give time for it to get accepted.
You proved me correct also. You were together with fpg and andy. and this one confirms it once for all. You have a different agenda.
This is an investment forum for investment especially for Intel.
If you want to promote your own agenda, find something else.
No. I already know. I am trying like all of us to make him realize that it has become his second habit to refute everything.
This proves your real color. Even when the information is genuine you are here to trash it.
Headlines say it all.
Who is bringing these up? Not me. Echo in the chamber was deafening you. so please get out of chamber. That is reality.
Reality in business is that Intel is here to stay. It will do what it takes to win. AMD is gone for ever.
Your ability not to understand reality.
Timing of this announcement is very strange like AMD announcement of its new CEO. AMD had a big loss. Now its IBM time to disappoint with its earnings due tomorrow after the close.