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Agreed, 10-12% of the available shares is a huge chunk! Shorts entering a trap?
For the Chartists out there... If we look at the chart since May 10, we have been consolidating after a nice run up. Currently forming a classic cup. If we complete the handle this week, I will go out on a limb and call for a pps of $14.49 within the next 4 to 5 weeks, based on another leg up from the handle = to 1/2 the original run up from May10 to June 14. Add good news and we could equal the original run up.
On several occasions during the question and answer periods of the quarterly web casts, Dr Chan was asked directly what the capacity was of the manufacturing facility. He would not give a specific number, however, he did say that the capacity was large enough to handle the projected expansion of sales for a couple of years. I don't think he was getting squeezed for product as the uses are still under 50,000 units so far. I believe the expansion plans were accomplished well ahead of need, and also incorporated the need to supply HemoDefend. According to Mr. Capponi, "We plan to utilize the current manufacturing facility, leveraging existing assets and infrastructure, to produce HemoDefend clinical devices for the planned HemoDefend U.S. pivotal trial to start in late 2018-early 2019". We were told that there was plenty of capacity to supply the current needs, if we were to find out otherwise, that could have been a potential fatal mistake on Dr Chans credibility and he is too smart to do that. In my opinion, the new facility addressed the need for future capacity and also addressed the need for expanding product line. This being said, I admit I was caught flatfooted on the recent Russell reconstitution thing. Never came face to face with that til this year. Lol... Maybe an old dog, but still learning!
Idunno, Keep your travel agents # close at hand, as I think more than reconstitution or whatever the event was Friday at close doesn't fully explain what is going on here. Those that have a better grip on the dynamics of the end of June Russell 3000 event, please educate me, I'm all ears... Whatever shift, reconstitution, happened, there is no way, in my opinion that this rebalancing could affect a company's stock holdings up to 15% of it's total shares. No way. I smell a fish, but this time it could be fresh tuna, Ahi, my favorite, and within 72 hours we will know if we landed a HUGE one! Where did all these shares come from? Perhaps a private deal with the Shippley Trust? 2.9 million shares... plus another 750,000 traded after hours. No, this is not "adjustment" as far as I can comprehend. So, what is it? I'm thinking, someone big with a serious interest, Fresenius? Baxter? Did a private placement for the trust's shares plus added after hours to lock in a ton of shares much lower than they will be when the news hits. I could be wrong on this, but 3.5 million shares on a rebalance of portfolios? No way. Please correct me if I'm wrong. A lot of potential opportunity is here if we can get it right. Good luck to all of you!
You may be right... Makes sense to me!
Thanks, Orangecat, I couldn't remember the name of the trust and too lazy to look it up. This trade should stir the pot, No?
Could ask Dr. Chan, I'm sure he knows... Maybe.
Maybe... There is also a holder of 10% of CTSO that might have decided to sell a little from his holdings and enjoy the fruits of his labor. If you google map the address of this shareholder, it looks like a small farm house in the desert!
Private placement? Block that big was not just placed on the market.
Would not have been news to WB @ Berkshire. and he loves hard work by the bootstrap companies!
Cytosorbents has registered shares set aside to sell at a later date sitting on a "shelf". They can place these up for sale at any time, usually when it is at their advantage to do so. Since the shares have already been registered and fees paid, Cytosorbents may place them on the market at will without any other notices necessary regarding the sale.
2 Million at close... That's worth noting... ATM? Someone likes something!
Exquisite! All of it, including the camera work! Thank you, Murph...
Murph, I think it boils down to viable avenues and Money. Dr. Chan knew as soon as he saw the "beads" that there was real opportunity here but it would take time and money to ferret it out. The science was totally new from standpoint of patented methodology, the toughest market to grind your way through is FDA. Europe would be a much easier nut to crack, so much so that he was able to do this without anyone realizing he had already filed with EU and while the share holders were speculating when the filing announcement would arrive, what we got was the approval, and potential financing for future FDA approvals. Dr. Chan, already had his sword tempered in the fires of venture capitalism, was prepared for the long road of laying out his plan to bring this wonderful science to fruition and he has. We have witnessed how its done without giving away the store, mostly by sweat equity and surrounding himself with brilliant scientists. I am going to share one of my little secrets I use in looking at value. Insurance Companies. What will this new therapy do for the insurance industry's bottom line. The filter? No brainer, shortens ICU time by days per patient, will save gobs of money when deployed properly. When the insurance industry demands we use or filter over current methods of controlling Sepsis and all the other applications that are being talked about, you will see this go through the roof. Be sure, they are watching this too. Example, EXAS. Colorectal detector kit, Stir stick in poop, mail in to lab. when is it used? Prior to Colonoscopy, which costs about $2-2.5k to the insurance co. Cost of Stick in poop? $250. Ins. Co's say use this first, then when indicated, do colonoscopy. Savings? About 1800 per patient testing NEG., about 9 out of 10 tested. EXAS stock went from $5 to $65 in a year or so. We are getting there, Patience! $15 leading up to 2 quarter results... There is a lot going on here. I don't trust Fresenius, tried to duplicate our art, failed, but I do trust Dr. Chan. He's the real deal. Notice how the penny stock shorts have disappeared? Another sign we are on our way. Good luck...
Yea, day traders loaded up to exit last 30 minutes or so. If we get above 12 tomorrow, may gain to middle of 12's. That would make a sweet week! Chart looks like it wants to move out of a consolidation here...
I like to cheerlead every now and then, Idunno... If we can get a nickle above 12 today with a bit of late action I think we might have a shot of gaining a buck in a day for the first time in history! That would be sweet and a nice set up for the stretch running into 2nd quarter report!
I missed that, thanks for the heads up! I'll look for that, as I believe the EAP program is still one of the best shots on goal that we have at our disposal...
Good thinking , Bertha... I believe this would be a great question for Dr. Chan in an e-mail. Your idea, your honors, Bertha...
Bertha, this article read like deja vu. We filed for EAP Program designation and during the talks with FDA we were told: " Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) and the Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) branches of the FDA about the Company’s EAP application, the FDA indicated that 28-day all-cause mortality would be the appropriate primary endpoint regarding CytoSorb and the treatment of sepsis. CDER noted that historically, in many other sepsis trials unrelated to CytoSorb, there has been a lack of utility or correlation in surrogate endpoints when predicting mortality improvement in sepsis outcomes." It was this; "October 25, 2011 — Eli Lilly is withdrawing activated drotrecogin alfa (Xigris), a drug intended to treat severe sepsis in high-risk patients, from all markets including the United States in the wake of a new study showing that the agent did no better than a placebo in reducing mortality." that embarrassed the FDA and subsequently caused the FDA to insist on the 28 day standard no matter drug or device. I think we should have appealed this as it embarrassed lower level employees of the FDA, but we didn't pursue it because we could have ended up on the s**t list of the FDA causing greater problems down the road. In the mean time, I calculate we have 150,000 patients a year that have lost hands and feet due to this decision denying Cytosorbents EAP designation going forward. Yes, I'm still angry about that one!
Idunno, Unfortunately, your suggestion has one fatal flaw. Whenever there is a takeover bid, the purchasing company, in keeping their best interest in mind, and that of their shareholders, will attempt to complete the purchase at the lowest cost that gets the job done. That is the reason for poison pills. In the case of Cytosorbents, I would venture a guess that 15 dollars a share would be enough to complete the sale to the utter astonishment and horror of all of us that have held shares of Cytosorbents for the long term benefits. My first purchase was in 2010, when the company could have been had for .50 cents a share. There were several people advocating for that. Your scenario would be acceptable to me, however, that's not how this works. Show me 1 instance where a company was bought out for a multiple of 5 to 6 times their current price. Nice thought though. Perhaps we will get there in a couple of years...
Andy, Thank you for this re-post. I had not seen it myself. This is not an insignificant event. I am still scratching my head as to why the FDA decided they needed a 28 day Mortality study to approve the Cytosorb filter for the accelerated approval program... Lord only knows how many hands and feet we could have saved men, women and children over the years that have passed since that foolish decision. I figure about 150,000 appendages per year. Yes, that one still bothers me. There are about 35 MD's serving in Congress. Maybe a letter to each of them might wake up the FDA, though I doubt it... Thanks Andy, you're great on these details.
Burnttoast, I think you might be a bit low, my best guess would be approximately 72,675 shares based on daily median average over last 5 days equaling 8.765 p/s divided into 637k.
Any thoughts on how this run is stacking up to the previous run to 15? Personally I believe we have a lot more data and support holding this one up. Good luck longs! Congrats on the $10 options, 50 bagger?
Psuforlife, For those who are good at math, here is the verbage taken from the success fee letter;
equal to the quotient (calculated by rounding up the nearest whole number) obtained by dividing (a) the Success Fee by (b) the volume weighted average price per share of the Company’s Common Stock for the same five successive business days on which the closing price per share of the Company’s Common Stock caused the Success Fee to become payable.
At the close today we should know how many shares the bank will receive.
Fantom, I think since we are up nearly 20% in the last 3 days, with the daily movement showing consolidation after a very healthy up side move, that someone or group used Kathleen's programed sell to attempt to start a cascade to purchase stopped out positions. Attempt failed. We are going higher.
Looks as though we might go the 5 days over $8. If so, I would like to see a nice run thereby reducing the number of shares we will have to cough up to the bank. $9 would be nice, beyond that would be sweet. More news would help bump it up, if substantial news... Price seems to be moving with quarterlies a bit more, we might look back to point to this year as an "Inflection" year!
Would be interesting to get Cytosorbents filter into ECMO circuit of someone afflicted with a rare virus such as Hantavirus that plays havoc with the immune system. 1/3 of all people who contract this virus die. First signs are strong flu like symptoms, resulting in lungs unable to expel carbon dioxide. Just thinkin'...
I've been burned with options also, however, to the best of my knowledge, a majority of the money in options is made selling them not buying them.
Highest close since 11/11/15. Well above average volume this week, assuming no nasty chuck holes in the road next week, I think the anticipation of news may continue the current trend. Range, 7.50 to 8.50+
Car-T news would be nice...
Case of Week, 05/2018; First time that I can remember, in conclusions, it was stated, "According to the medical team, the patient would not have survived without the use of CytoSorb". This conclusion is as my grandson would say, "Extremely huge" for the filter. Does anyone remember any other reports where the medical team stated that it was the filter that saved the patient?
For those expecting a greater reaction to the news, remember, we are still a very small company on NASDAQ, as such, it will take a little longer for the word to spread to others not already invested. Tomorrow may get interesting. Is it possible that a partnership could be in the wings, subject to the approval we just got? If so, we very well may hear more good news before the end of this year!
Rockobongo, Is it possible that the decision to fund REMOVE was transmitted after the employee's decision to liquidate that particular holding? I'm not sure about the grey area where there is an overlap between starting a transaction and then news hits before the transaction is completed. I AM perplexed as to why this company releases wonderful news and invariably there is a flurry of selling activity, in todays case selling under the bid. This is a regular occurrence with this company. I do not believe it's the little guy doing this. I consider all of us, without exception on these boards, little guys. Perhaps the p/e is right where it belongs, wish I had the answer, but I have always had a nagging feeling that someone doesn't want this to break out before they make their run for the company. Very frustrating and its been going on for years.
Thanks' Andy for your well thought out and factual posts. It's interesting that your posts are not responded to so often by those who are holding short positions in CTSO. Your question is a good one. A key issue will be the insurance companies... wanting it, supporting the use of our filter to save on their bottom line. We will see our filter become the go to therapy when the hospitals and Insurance support the filter, and unless something dramatic happens before then, I would guess 3-5 years out.
Ping, You brought a smile to my face this morning with your 7.50 today comment. Yes, we probably should have been there, and maybe a bit more, this past year, however we still seem to be subject to the roller coaster ride that comes with the territory of a small, start up med/device company. Most fail, but some win, and when they do, it is sometimes spectacular what they do. (ISRG, EXAS). I believe CTSO has put in a bottom at 6.20. The next week or two will confirm this. Next resistance to get through looks to be 6.60-6.75, (this week?), then beyond that will be 7.75-8. Be nice to see us go through 8 by year end. Another year to get to 10-12, after that, the final step to 15. If we do go through 15 in the future, then the sky is the limit. I believe this will happen within the next three years. Happy Thanksgiving and following holidays to everyone... Yes, even you P.
Ping, Could it be that Dr. Chan is still selling at the market out of the shelf? I don't mind Dr. Chan selling at market as the proceeds will be used to further progress and ultimately add value < dilution. In the quarterly presentations, partnerships are referred to as "potential". With the FDA meetings regarding Refresh2 nearing completion, perhaps Dr. Chan is leaving his options open as far as proceeding with the trial.
If there were personal contacts, they wouldn't be advertised, Excellent quarter, CTSO shows no sign of slowing expansion of sales. Next 2 quarters should show an acceleration of sales. Further, I have no problem with the company selling shares at market price.
Exact Sciences (EXAS), has been on a Roar for the past 18 months... I was thinking back then, what stock has a better chance for taking off, and I figured a company that can pull people back from the brink of death has a better chance than a lab that has the patient stir a stick in their poop and mail it in. Just goes to show ya what I know!
Bertha, I think we will be within a penny or so of breaking even this quarter, maybe an upside surprise from Fresenius sales contribution.
That would be one heck of a leak, Ping...
Rocko, I'll give your question my best shot... With the announcement by Baxter a couple of days ago, interest has been heightened regarding hemoperfusion. Someone, somewhere asked, "Who's their competition"? This lead to Cytosorbents, Inc. They liked what they saw and placed a position of about 100K shares before lunch this morning. A person involved with the purchase called another buddy and told him about the buy and their reasons. Firm two did a little research and also liked what they saw. That was the purchase at 1:10-1:15 ET. Either that or firm 1 took their time making their purchase so that the pps didn't rise too far. There has been some activity lately that indicates deep pockets are buying in with the expectation of excellent quarterly reports coming down the pike. Shorts be warned...
Yes they did, Bertha. Common sense usually rules motivation. With Fresinius's attempt to do a run around, they showed their interest in our science. I am a bit disappointed in their performance, considering the size of their organization. I think they are very interested in us, in more ways than one.