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It sure looks, when you review the trading pattern of the last week or so, that the powers that be know something good is about to occur-
maybe an FDA relabeling that's not too restrictive, a move which, more than anything else, would take the possibility of removal(which was IMO, never really in play), off the table.
But, uh-oh, inherently dangerous to comment at a time like this(lol)...
Iandy, I have to thank you for clarifying the integrity of all these "insights"
Having said that however, I think it's evident that institutions must be buying because the intensity and continuity of the vol buy we've seen since the beginning of last week would be hard to explain in any other way(even short squeezes have their limits)...
Best,
bw
probably true-at least not at any cost that shareholders should be expected to swallow...
What I think we're seeing is a complex affair involving a lot of short covering and purchasing on the bid, and "get me out!!!" selling that is bolstered by those who took positions in the last few days(on the ask), but who's stops just keep getting hit again and again.
Then of course there are the algo trading machines that specialize in this sort of thing(trading the spread for pennies) which keeps up the volume and greases the whole operation to keep it going.
Truly ghastly to observe, but hard to look away...
Apart and aside from some sort of extension of the clinical trial holds, or any report of new SAEs in either program(113 or Iclusig),
that would be just another ultimate shocker to shareholders(particularly if the convert level was pretty low)-
would be just another example of shareholders left holding the bag.
after all, we all know by now that Harvey's stock sale plan (despite the constant updates I'm sure he was receiving on all Iclusig trial AEs)could only have been motivated by his reasonable interest in diversification...
Thanks, got it!
Well, what point we're you trying to make? that some of the sites didn't follow the trial protocol appropriately, or something else?
Not sure I understand you're suggestion here...
Nice perspective-did they provide a new price target?
Thanks,
bw
Fair Value-
At least within the context of the biotech sector(as represented by the IBB), it would appear that the bulls and bears, over the last few days, have offset one another, and the result is that we've been "largely" trading with the index-
I view this, at least for the time being, as welcome stability(as we wait for the next tangible catalyst).
Have a nice weekend!
bw
I'm not a Brit, but I have to note, "very cheeky", very cheeky indeed, lol...
Still "around"...
Just have less time to do research these days, and I see no reason to comment in ways that wouldn't add meaningfully to the dialogue.
Thanks for asking.
Regards,
bw
TSR-001-
Recent presentation notes they will be releasing their first clinical(ph1) data at ESMO(see pg 20):
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-Z6KN1/2681857147x0x689499/e101c92f-2606-43be-9da0-273e98f0e070/TesaroBaird%20September%20Presentation%20091013_webcast.pdf
It certainly worked for us lol!
And, despite all the criticisms of Harvey, we need to remember, he was instrumental in selling it...
It would appear Merck doesn't take itself seriously as a cutting edge biotech developer, or they'd have taken the action you suggest...
would seem they've embraced their stereotype as a clueless lumbering pharma giant-
After the Rida transaction, can't imagine how(or why)they wouldn't lol...
btw, despite it's inappropriateness(coming form the head of R&D), even the contention is wrong-
IMO, there's plenty to buy out there. But again, for a company that bought Rida on the terms it did, they obviously don't know how to evaluate those opportunities.
Technical note...
http://custom.fmg.dowjones.com/custom/tdameritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid=%7B23bcc7b4-6b31-4662-8fba-5178977aed1e%7D
Obvious technical improvement of late noted in the above DowJones newswire.
What they didn't mention, however, was the looming "Golden Cross"(when sma50 crosses above the sma200), which should result in the next week or so if we continue to climb to any degree.
Don't know how much credibility I'd accord to this achievement, but, if it does occur, would like to see it do so on high volume.
I think this may be part of what is motivating the extreme short term options trading of late.
Regards all,
bw
Jan Deckers
But(he can can correct me if I'm wrong)I don't think he was expecting this rapid a scenario.
In other words, this doesn't seem like the result of a "conventional" change in sentiment, but rather, major catalyst related.
Hard to imagine a breakout like this isn't associated with something big-
Nevertheless, about 10% of the outstanding shares are short, so a clue will be how well it holds up toward the end of the day...
Well, it was holding up all day, and rising for about an hour before 22 was breached,
but it sure does look like some sort of bell rang around 2:20pm,
and whether it was pure panic buying related to affirmative information,
or technically activated short covering is yet to be determined.
Either way, a resounding confirmation of a change in sentiment that may have some staying power(and, of course, a pleasure to behold)!
BOOMERANG!!!
Long time coming;
"hopefully", long time going as well-
Would like to see a close comfortably over 22 here...
So much for the old saw about "never losing money by taking a profit" lol-
However, people like myself have to hope that the worm has truly turned...
Nice to see we've moved from the previous down channel to this up channel as the current focus...
Major (positive)trajectory change.
Additional Note:
Trial start at 45mgs suggests to me that thrombotic problems in the other trials(e.g.EPIC)can't be that significant-
Apparently, the the priority of demonstrating strong efficacy in these distinctly under-served cohorts significantly outweighs any remaining concerns(regarding dosage/side effects)...
As such, I regard this as a very bullish tell for Pona(and Ariad)!
Nice Find-
So the march for Pona expansion proceeds, and these collaborator/ISTs seem like a good way to throw your hook in the water at relatively small expense.
Since this is open label, should be able to get some useful info over the next year or so...
Regards,
bw
I'm generally with you in so much as that I don't see a great degree of downside in the near future.
Although we have failed to break out of this 1 year down channel, the volatility and volume to the down side have been relatively muted over the last 4 months(despite the tendencies for summer downturns)compared to the first 6 to 8 months.
IMO, this is a grudging acknowledgement of our nearness to trough valuation coupled with a growing appreciation that real catalysts are near.
The relatively quiescent, slightly upwardly-tilting consolidation over the last 6 months displayed in Ill's chart(http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91533655)
(to my mind)confirms this.
Therefore, anything can happen, and often does, but for Ill to get anything like his $14 target, much of the world will really need to blow up(both economically and physically), and I don't think the charts, as they now stand, support such a prediction.
In other words, I would predict a nervous, volatile, muddle, rather than any sort of full scale implosion(Negative Boom-Boom!).
Regards,
bw
Seriously worthwhile(even though I've only been willing to scan so far)...
MORE HOMEWORK???
Seriously, an excellent resource and documentation of Ponatinib's depth and range of potential...
It is rather surreal, isn't it???
But, as one of the supporting cast(of pawns), I'm inclined to suspend my disbelief to a somewhat greater degree than usual...
Needless to say, in this world of Madoff, etc., the degree of surreality is much more debatable than I would ever have expected,
and, as someone else posted, we'll just have to hope for that "Rocky" ending!
Regards,
bw
Nice, seemingly objective, review of TKIs...
Now will the only true pan-BCR-ABL inhibitor ever stand up(beyond this seemingly endless wall of distortions)and be appropriately recognized???
Hope so!
Ill,
I hate to throw any cold water on your system of analysis here, but if you simply look at the chart you've provided, over the course of the last year,
it's appears obvious that the movements of Ariad's stock price aren't even remotely correlated with the clouds illustrated.
You really might as well splash paint on a chart board for the level of predictive value derived.
Although it's still precarious, I believe a more traditional moving averages technical analysis tells you a little bit more...
For example, look at a 1 year of the sma50, 100 and 200, and you can easily see where(on numerous occasions)these levels have indicated resistance and support.
Just my impression.
Stepping out now till tomorrow.
Regards,
bw
Yesterday and today represented a bullish reversal in the context of a 1 month downtrend that has yet to be breeched-
Still caught(?how long)in a down channel-
Anyone's guess...
I really liked your hind-sight recommendation(hadn't seen it before)-
It might have put the spotlight where it belonged for a change...
Apparently, despite Ariad's sophistication in so many areas, they may not quite be there yet in the PR department.
Typical Sturm und Drang...
After all the usual quarterly volatility, we find ourselves back essentially where we started,
on, what I would argue, is a bumpy, but characteristically affirmative, long-term path, although I haven't yet had the opportunity to listen to the call.
Since I was up late last night, and had no intention of selling here, even if the stock popped,
and had purchased all the extra I wanted back in the 16s,
I saw no reason to get up. And, after reviewing today's action, I feel vindicated in that decision lol...
On balance, Ariad is, and has been, a long-term hold for quit some time, so too much attention to it's daily gyrations strikes me as a waste of energy.
If one's interested in real short-term action(i.e. beyond range trading), there are a lot of better places to be.
Regards,
bw
Death Rattle???
Not really... But I guess the optimistic assessment of today's action would be to suggest that we are simply testing(in our characteristically volatile manner) the bottom of the current uptrend of the last several days.
Needless to say, we are, at best, also still testing the sma200(and any breakout is yet to occur).
Seeing as the quarterly cc is just a few days off, this isn't particularly bullish for the immediate prospects of that event...
Regards,
bw
"Golden Cross"...lol
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=90578070
Actually, whatever it is, the technicals seem(as they are expected to do)to confirm it.
Now, if we can just close above the next(hope not)stop(200sma), at about 19.70,(better above 20 to be convincing),
then the technicals will continue to suggest a bullish future.