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Watch was off.. too much beach sand
Got gold?
d.
Keep that life preserver handy ! <g>
along with a Bay Watch babe and a beer.
d.
Crash begins in 60 minutes.
Helmets on.
d.
So is the Fed into shorting Nat Gas now too?
woa, getting hammered
Corporate bonds could get a double whammy as Treasuries sell off and the stock market goes down. "Good place to be from" as they say, totally agree now is not a good time to hang around.
And if you put your money in money markets that have large positions in these bonds youre liable to lose money. If it's not insured forget it, time for gold/silver.
d.
This looks like the second best shorting opportunity (on US bonds) of our lifetime for a longer term trade imo.
The risk that rates are going much lower is low imo. On the other hand they could drop rather quickly if the central banks are never going to get paid back and the price of gold/oil/toothpaste and about everything else explodes.
d.
Remember to carry a life preserver pal. You'll be fine.
d.
My comments are directed at the media which has become controlled by policital parties - the spin masters
Some red neck loyalists just cant seem to figure that out, nor do they care as long as the stock market goes up and the U.S. is perceived to be kicking ass.
s.
Its all in the presentation. After the news of Saddams capture I suggested that maybe he had been held for a while based on where he was and how he looked.
I was blasted by some people on the board for daring to suggest that the media might have left out a few details to "spin" the news. Its the world we live in.
If you dont get all the news and details are left out then how do you know your getting the truth?
Answer: You dont.
d.
Saddam captured by Kurdish forces, NOT THE SPIN MASTERS
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1514&u=/afp/iraq_saddam_britain&printer=1
ROFLMAO - someone just lost a few votes
Thx for the article. It does look like put premiums are basic driver for the VIX.
Pretty cool! I found this... Check out the set up on the VIX going into the week of 7/12/98 and its a carbon copy of what we have now.
VIX walks down for weeks prior and finally touches down on the lower BB at 16.7. In the twelve weeks that follows it goes ballistic to a value of 60.4
Meanwhile the SP fell from 1185 to 923 (22%)
I know past performance does not guarantee future returns but looks worth a shot (er, short) to me <g>
d.
<TNX Charts>
Yes but its doesnt look like an impulsive move down and Friday was and inverted hammer.
I think we are at a major decision point for all markets, stocks/bonds/dollar/gold, and we are going to find out very soon which way its going. Definitely go with the break either way from here imo.
d.
Just eyeballing the chart. Theres not a handle yet but it could become one after some sideways action. Proportionally it looks about 6 mos. to me.
I would consider 6 mos. sideways action to be very bullish after the run the market has had.
d.
Needs about a 6 month handle first imo.
Then maybe
Gold is acting excellent. Its unreal to me that its at 410 with the Dow at highs. What happens when (not if) the market (big cap pension fund burdened stocks) takes a dive will be most interesting.
I think walk up slowly as people come to their senses.
Missed a lot of gains by trying to time gold. If you think its going up long term then take a position proportional to your risk tolerance (assuming its going to swing +/- 10%) and hold on imo.
The only way the dollar can rally is if rates go up. It's not going to go up on bs media campaigns anymore.
d.
Thx
Expected volatility must be the biggest factor driving the VIX, or put premiums.
d.
<I think you find it too easy to blind yourself of the consequences of a different approach, nor, are you willing to offer one.>
Reduced consumption. No one wants to consider that there are periods where it makes sense to re-group instead of forcing it. But now instead of gradual reduction in consumption we are going to get a collapse. The deflation tsunami is coming imo.
I think rates will go up, starting on Monday which will help.
peace
d.
<Realistically that's not possible at this point.>
Your arguments are based on economics. My focus is the environment. Burning coal without controlling emmissions is BS and you know it.
But hey, homebuilders had a good run and the mortgage business has been unreal. Worry about how to power them cleanly, later.
d.
Federal Reserves
if you havent seen this already
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19614726
Also in the gripe dept.:
Bush also handed his big supporters in the utilities business recently by repealing a law enacted 10 years ago to clean up emmissions from coal burning plants. So he gets the votes, big guys make money on coal, and our kids will inherit a polluted planet.
Im afraid this generation of hippies and yuppies has turned into the greediest bunch of all.
M
just to clarify the VIX
doesnt it measure the put premiums on a bunch of stocks to get the value? so if the VIX moves up its because put premiums increased
volatility and put premiums dont seem to connect for me
Looks like dollar could bounce here.
Expecting the stock market, bonds, gold, and the Euro to go down.
d.
The water services business is another area, like natural gas where water resources requirements have been completely overlooked or underfunded for years.
Global climate changes are impacting water. The biggest boom for this business will be repacing worn out water infrastructure over the next 20 years.
Unfortunately most of the companies that work in this area are small and the stocks are thinly traded
GRC AMN WTS TII worth watching imo
d.
Today is obviously "support the Naz" day. Start rolling out of Dow stocks while they arent looking... <g>
d.
<Weekly jobless claims fall 22,000 in latest week , the lowest nunber since september 2001>
These numbers are great but why isn't Fed Ex shipping and Wal Mart selling then?
d.
Lee Kramer must have slept in <g>
or the guy has the flu, hope not.
d.
Crude breaking out to new highs @ 33.75
Next stop 37.5 then 44
d.
"the iraqi dinar must be tied to the dollar, it must be dragging it down"
So the iraqi dinar is gaining against the dollar? lol
d.
Euro currency broke through important fib today. Next stop is 1.29 or about 6% higher from here.
Get the feeling the dollar pumping machine will have to put the brakes on soon or we could overshoot and go to 0.
D.
The primary beneficiary of the news today seems to be coal stocks though from what I see so far.
D.
"Ray Pellecchia, spokesman for the NYSE, declined to comment."
Do all the top execs at the NYSE have Italian last names? Is there one Smith or Jones in the bunch?
The guy they hired to replace Grasso has an Italian last name also I do believe. Just an observation.
D.
<The whole dirty game is being exposed for the mess that it is.>
And its just getting started. The government (SEC) won't take a stand for the small investor, but when the big guys start losing money then the problem will get fixed/exposed.
I think this is great news.
D
NYSE Lawsuit
Calpers, the biggest U.S. pension fund, on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against the New York Stock Exchange and its specialist trading firms, alleging widespread trading abuses by the firms that it said went unchecked by the NYSE for years.
``We are filing today a landmark lawsuit to recover losses and to right a serious wrong that exists at the New York Stock Exchange. That wrong involves the specialist trading system,'' said Sean Harrigan, president of the Calpers board of administration.
``The lawsuit alleges that the exchange looked the other way most of the time when these rules were violated. We intend to seek recovery of every single dollar lost,'' he said during a press briefing in Sacramento to announce the suit.
Ray Pellecchia, spokesman for the NYSE, declined to comment.
The lawsuit alleges specialists employed ``artifices to defraud'' and argues ``that NYSE orders were not being filled at the best available prices ... `` and ``financially advantaged'' the specialists.
The firms named in the suit include
LaBranche & Co. Inc. (LAB.N)
Van der Moolen (VDM.N) (VDMN.AS)
Spear Leeds & Kellogg, which is owned by Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N)
Fleet Specialist Inc., a division of FleetBoston Financial Corp. (FBF.N)
Bear Wagner Specialists, partly owned by Bear Stearns & Co. (BSC.N)
Susquehanna Specialists
Performance Specialist Group.
A lot of specialists marking stocks down on 100 share trades while people decide what to do. Dont think we've seen the top yet, even though Im bearish.
D
Im not sorry for presenting any controversial views.
You should be sorry for being a jerk.
Now back to the markets - time to get short. Sorry to burst your "bubble" dude.
D.
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=743
One thing you've made clear is that you're an A hole.
D
I'm guessing that they've had Saddam locked up for a long time just waiting for the right time to pull him out of the hat.
I mean if the guy had a million dollars in his pocket why was he sitting down in a hole waiting to be found. Wouldn't you think he could afford to get some cosmetic surgery rather than the overgrown beard?
No, the administration was getting some bad press with Halliburton and half the freindly Iraqi troops leaving. Pretty hard to convince other nations to pay for the Iraq clean up if your involved in corrupt contracts and loss of confidence. So voila.. we happened to find Saddam.
I dont buy that they just stumbled on him or that he was controlling revolutionary forces from the foxhole they had him stuffed in.
I'm guessing that they found Saddam at the same time they got his sons or at least have had him bunkered in since then.
D.
Euro could turn down early next week on this
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=3987833
D.
I guess shorting the stock market probably has more potential than long gold at this juncture. If you're bearish of course, which only 17% of investors are. lol
D.
Thats it. Its the evil gold !
D.
Since when did BEARX become a bull fund?
redemptions? scratching my head - it goes down on down market day
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=bearx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[pc20!b50!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lc20]&a...