I know, it’s a tough call. If we weren’t in a bear cycle, downtrend I would stay in the trade longer as it would favor an upside break. I’m watching declining volume on higher lows and per my last post it can’t get over 15$ and stay there. Let’s see…do you have your bollis set on 10,2?

With macro headwinds and these little “bear market bounces” throughout the stock market has me leaning towards we see that 8-10$ range you had mentioned before reversal. The Fed is far away from relaxing at the moment so it’s continue risk off as I see it.

All the best, let’s keep checking in!

LCK

Looking like a bear flag on the daily?

LCK

Hey man, thanks for the kind words….I still work for a living to be clear, not a full time day trader or anything. It helps that I really do love my job….That said I use charts for entries/exits, swing trades etc. the stories can be intoxicating around our investments when the chart can clearly be telling us something opposite. It’s hard to not let our emotions get the best of us…

Honestly I just taught myself over the years, listened to people smarter than me and learned how to observe my rational and irrational thinking.

I pay attention to the RSI, volume, and trend lines and moving averages. You could google them and probably spend the next 18 months just on those. I did “mock trades” where I just noted if I would have bought or sold at the right time. The Heikin Ashi candle on a WEEKLY chart are pretty clear cut to see a trend change….and 1 other thing, it was hard to make a mistake in 2020 when everything was going straight up and the same goes for now. It’s super risky as the bear is upon us. Look at TCNNF, fantastic company with great numbers but I’m not fighting the bear

Hope that helps a bit, I’m no financial advisor, guru chart reader, just a surfer, dude…lol (that really is a great movie)

LCK

Tell yourself whatever story you want, it makes no difference to me.

The chart over the last 2 years shows a classic blow off top, now a return to the mean. Narrative follows price imo, not the other way around.

Not flexin but I was buying at 7, 10, 19….selling at 25 (the 7s) than at 50, 40, and by the time we got to the high 20s i was completely out. All because of charts, I have human emotions just like everyone else and really have to discipline myself around the narratives. Im on high alert on the OTC where the penny stocks are….Boy did I get crushed on “a narrative” in 2012. Woke up on a Monday and my acct was zero, grey sheets and shut down. I learned how to read charts….

Trulieve will have its day, not sure when that is but the company is amazing. I should have sold more Jushi, still learning….

LCK

I agree with you on the support which is still in tact, i wanted a break to the upside with more conviction as previous moves have. Its getting hammered back down off that high 14 level after several attempts. Its in a range now and my guess is its going to break to the down side. I could be totally wrong but I like fractals and charts, in case you didnt know…lol. There is resemblance to an attempt of a break out mid Dec last year that was getting squashed at the 50dma.

Anyhow, its all just squiggly lines and numbers. No one knows

If it does go lower, wave to me…I will be in the truck next to you :)

LCK

I closed out my trade for a…maybe 2-3% loss….anyhow, its not reacting to the chart the way I would like. All about risk management for me right now.

All the best, keep me posted

LCK

I trade charts not politics

LCK

Wow, they absolutely crushed it. Good for them….

LCK

Yes, thats the “business” which Trulieve is great at. That has nothing to do with the re pricing of valuations in the current economic landscape

LCK

There is a difference from 2 years ago even though the price is the same….

2 years ago….mad speculation, forward momo about reform, stimmy money flowing, low interest rates, larger investors taking a gamble at cannabis stocks

Fast forward to now…less speculation, downward pressure and complete dropping of the ball on reform, no stimmy, looming recesssion, higher borrow rates, larger investors going risk off on cannabis stocks

Trulieve still doing a banging job but the environment has completely changed.

LCK

I agree, imo buyers are stepping in looking at those wicks. I like the “hook” I see on the indicators, macd, stoch, rsi. More times than not it’s followed by a move up, need to see some follow through on Monday. Probably need the weekend for investors to lick their wounds after this week, wow it was messy…lol

All the best

LCK

Once we see a bounce Im eying up the 50 dma as the top zone. A look at the daily shows it has been rejected about 20 times, also can’t hold it as support once it breaks. Let’s see if history repeats…..I grabbed a couple 13s yesterday

For anyone else reading this, this is not financial advice and I’m not long TCNNF. Im swing trading this strictly on techs

Best wishes

LCK

The numbers according to Google
-51% YTD -68% 1 Y return +10% 5 Y return

It will be interesting how it plays out.

LCK

I’m in for some more, don’t think a trend change is anywhere in sight but a bounce will come imo. RSI in the 17s, I couldn’t resist…

Market is getting crushed today

LCK

Yea its a tricky one, trading downtrends is much harder than up trends to say the least

I would like a sharper move north on the fast stoch/rsi and other indicators. Even the candle today is so so. The last 3 swing trades all started with a bullish candle and sharp hockey stick move on the indicators….we will see

More bids in the lower range for me, whatever it is….its still primed for a bounce. Its so oversold and volume has been decent

All the best gents…

LCK

Nice, I did not get filled. Missed it by 25 cents.

Is it time to send it?

LCK

The price was in the 30s…..

HoldHigh
Tuesday, October 05, 2021 7:16:42 PM
Re: marathon man post# 13368
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Post# of 14912 Go
I don't see that happening. We are headed up from here. Unless we have a broad market correction the stock will continue on an upward trajectory. The 2022 price looks to be substantially higher than the current price. There are too many things happening to hold down the share price.

LCK

Quick glance this morning at the chart, I believe this is deepest the RSI has gone into oversold that I have seen. It’s straight up ugly but primed for a bounce. I’m liking the above average volume. The downslide of red candles is crazy….

Let’s see what the FOMC meeting brings, it seems to be “all the talk”. Maybe same same or less hawkish we can see a move.

LCK

Excellent work, question is…..is this a sweep of the 14.06 or considered a break? I’ve always traded on “the wick tells the story, the body (of the candle) tells the facts? Without a close below it I’m not sure if we keep going down without the bounce.

I did some digging this weekend. A “return to the mean” seems to be a theme here in a lot of the equity markets. Some big names with haircuts so drastic that they are returning to pre pandemic levels before the stimulus. If that is the case, you could very well be right with the final stop of this train being in that high single digit range….let’s call it 7-10$

Not financial advice, no crystal ball ….just rabbit holes

My trade is still open

LCK

Clearance rack at 40% off? You need a new calculator

LCK

Nice one man, keep me posted how you play it. I’m really thinking the bounce will come very soon if the chart history repeats. Volume/selling candles looking a lot more like capitulation to me. Let’s see how we close out today

All the best

LCK

I noticed that also, my take and opinion is the DXY. The dollar has gone parabolic the past week, when that happens I notice a decline in risk assets. I follow it because of how it correlates with Bitcoin. I consider OTC cannabis stocks as risky as crypto, you can see huge percentage gains as fast as huge percentage losses

So the DXY, it touched a zone that got rejected over the past decade and is possibly busting through it. If it continues a parabolic move then the risky assets will be sold off. You might already know all this, just wanted to add what I could….

This is my take, how I’m playing my cards. Not financial advice.

Curious if you come up with anything else under the hood?

LCK

Thanks for that, I think we are getting close to capitulation just from the way the chart has reacted in the past. If I had to guess, I think we get a long wick down and a sweep of the 14 area you mentioned and then catch a bid for a bounce. Just a hunch….

I don’t see a trend reversal anywhere in sight, but I have been saying that since the mid 30s…lol

From what I see, the swing traders love this zone. RSI over sold, bottom Bolli ridden for multiple days, volume picking up…all the usual suspects.

All my opinion GL

LCK

Oh boy! That would be ugly

LCK

I know I have said “don’t pick bottoms, it will give ya stinky fingers” but I have a sink and will wash my hands before I eat :)

15.23

LCK

Looking primed for a bounce, historically on the daily when we ride the bottom bollinger band for a couple weeks to lower lows into oversold, it catches a relief rally. I like the risk/reward around this point for a swing trade.

Not financial advice

LCK

I actually don’t, I’m very much a beginner at Fibs hence, why I asked you about it a few posts ago. I love the chart you referenced from a post back in Jan.

I like the fast stoch, stoch rsi etc for some swing indicators. The Heikin Ashi candles on the weekly I like for spotting trend changes but….it has gave false signals a couple times during this down trend. I’m also using tight ranges, if it doesn’t seem to be shifting the way I thought I get out. Did it twice in the past month w/ Jushf

Appreciate what you add to the board

LCK

Placed some stink bids in the high 15s, strictly swing trade shares. I like this area on the chart for a bounce, not confirmed yet but starting to look tasty. Volume is revving up also….

All my opinion, not financial advice

LCK

Reminds me of the Canadian LP fallout

LCK

I still think it drifts lower, printed a lower low and the trend shows no signs of reversal yet. Have you laid the Fibs on TCNNF?? I noticed there has been no retrace since that high last year which we most likely see at some point. Any TA appreciated ……

LCK

Is this you from July 26, 2021?

Another day, another small buy while accumulating stock.

In twelve months at least a double, most likely around $75/share as the Harvest becomes Trulieve

I’m glad I use this board as entertainment, cause according to my math TCNNF would need to go up roughly 400% in 3 months to get to your target. The price must have been 32ish when you posted that, so it still needs to go up 100% from here just to get to your jumping off point. Yea, ok player….good luck with that.

LCK

This is not Apple, Amazon. They never traded with penny stocks on the OTC. Antiquated investing and views of the market will most likely have alot more pain involved.

The numbers, marketing yada yada doesnt matter in this environment. If the Fed starts dropping 50bps hikes on the reg this will drop faster than Kim dropped Kanye. This is high risk…OTC, illegal federally etc.

I have been saying this since the “40s next week”. You cant bring out the pom poms until we recover the 200dma. That simple

That being said this is not financial advice and all my opinion, im just a surfer, dude….and i study macro economics when im not getting totally barreled brah

Best wishes

LCK

I prefer to drink coffee and take a dump in the morning, TCNNF likes to take a dump in the afternoon….

Cmon, you know that made ya chuckle

LCK

NEW scientific mathematical study completed!

Every time you post, 1 person blocks you. So in a short time you will be talking to yourself. Tell your grandkids!! Oh…you can’t….they blocked you too

LCK

Whaaaaa

I look for trend changes, it’s been that simple and the hardest thing to do. This whole sector has been in a downtrend for a year. I don’t believe the cheapie crowd, no one wants to lose money. It sucks and doesn’t feel good. This is the OTC and needs a lot of policy changes to attract real capital. Until then imo we will see a slow bleed.

I couldn’t even swing trade Jushf on a bullish signal because there …is….no…..volume. I will wait until the trend changes

Best wishes my brother, waves in foreign countries can heal the spirit

LCK

Prob a smart move

How was Morocco??

LCK

Just wait till the Fed talks tomorrow about policy tightening and possible larger rate hikes to get inflation under control.

Which way do you think speculative OTC cannabis stocks…. that cant even stay above the 50dma…are going to go?? Whats your thoughts?

LCK

I mentioned Cryptos and TCNNF before on this board and got blasted …lol, so funny. Now we are mentioning NFTs and Ethereum……coulda shoulda woulda I guess

LCK