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Thanks Lasers for the interesting post. Found this post that is interesting as well.
"I would also add management PROMISED the photoreceptor paper will be published in Q4. That is in addition to our RPE cells which compliment one another and add an entire new list of eye diseases. The first being retinitis pigmentosa. Then our hMSC's are also complimentary and will work for uveitis. These are just the eye. We are not talking about platelets, universal blood, drug testing, SCNT, or cancer. The company could add thousands of jobs, lower health care liability, be a boon for the economy, and add so much to the quality of life.
I'd like to think PW and Heffernan are doing this to finally get the company its just do, but getting burned so many times by them in the past it's hard to envision. Regardless, this company never harnessed let alone capitalized on the thousands of investors that are united on this site. It is actually unprecedented. What shareholders want to happen under these circumstances will happen because we control a far greater majority of voting shares. I am a believer in things happen for a reason. Who would have drempt that Aronson would come full circle and actually his ownership will prove to be a major factor in getting us a fair and just price for our long term investment strategy. I doubt anyone saw this coming. Everything happens for a reason. Aronson settlement may end up being a net positive when all is said and done. Incredible change of events. I've predicted a lot of things, but not this. This is getting exciting."
"We highly value Ocata's R&D capabilities, including its world-leading researchers in cell therapy,' commented Yoshihiko Hatanaka, President and CEO, Astellas. 'We're confident that we will turn innovative science into value for patients through the creation of new value by combining both companies' capabilities under 'One Astellas,' where Ocata will be taking a key role in Astellas' R&D in ophthalmology and cell therapy."
http://www.4-traders.com/ASTELLAS-PHARMA-INC-6491262/news/Astellas-Pharma--to-Acquire-Ocata-Therapeutics-New-Step-Forward-in-Ophthalmology-with-Cell-Therap-21383066/
Post from CATCHALL:
"The plan that ocata was following is the plan astrellas plans on following. They take over the company future pay out a few bucks leave prior investors who took all the risks on the docks. They want 100% and having come this far will not walk away easily. They will counter all offers, my guess is up to seven fold. Why should shareholders give it all to them at the first date? Sweet talk us give us more reason to give it to you. Pay us a fairer return on what we supported and helped happen.
What if Pfiser wants to have none of the issues with the sheets of RPE cells that management says they have patented? There ought to be a bidding war if Pfiser is going to get a financially heeled opponent so I expect another bid.
I accept that some entity is going to take the promise the company had offered for me."
OCAT information showing the quality of investment.
OCAT has the goods.
What matters most is that "all patients" get the care they deserve and shareholders get ROI. If one or the other get what they want and the other does not is it really a deal?
Are American patients going to the get their chance?
Are Japan's patients a higher priority now or just the same?
Competitive offers tell all.
Japan has needs and wants Dr. Lanza/patents. A complement it is, however, is this statement below true?
"I will definitely vote no... because the thing is that Astellas is not going to walk away from this. Riken and the Japanese government are desperate for success in the stem cell area, they've had very high-profile failures twice in a row now with a huge loss of face, and it is about more than money for them."
Competitive bids welcomed ahead. This country's patients have needs as well.
Despite or in spite of doubters and this science, the Scientific Journal came about, the NASDAQ from OTC came about, a new CEO came about, most important, patients have benefits from this science and they said it would never happen.
Some people make living out of doubting...some people waste their lives doubting rather than putting their efforts in something positive...to me, the science is helping patients and the science is desired by a first bidder...low to start but nonetheless...a bidder...how can more get the benefits of this science?
OCAT is a mutiplisity of "American Inventions" for sure that needs to be preserved. Keep it in America and partner with someone that cares not someone that comes with a low bid which shows they are either trying to take advantage or they do not value or are unwittingly unaware of it's true value.
OCAT is out of the bag and anything could happen.
The company is ripe for being approached by an alternative offer. Laser, i think your choices are very logical for who it will be, however, anything could surprise from many directions. There are other big guys out there.
Sorry you missed the opportunity to move up 89% or more. Best to you with the marijuana.
With the OCAT science helping the afflicted and those with different agenda in the shadows.
What will happen if another bid comes in with shares instead of a cash offer?
Silly talk about big macks and powerball will not be able to keep the price down with appreciated offer of shares.
OCAT has entered into a new era, first buyout offer, professional write up in the Lancet Scientific Journal, Silicon Valley Bank Backing, Institutional and Funds ownership, large and growing number of patents and more.
What next? When it was announced that the Scientific Success would be written up in a Scientific Peer Reviewed Journal many doubted it would happen. I can see how the doubt came about because of the delay.
Doubt and sarcasm became common as OCAT kept on increasing milestones. Now, first offer comes in, to low for most.
Info on what companies have contacted with interest OCAT is known by the "fly's on the wall" in office within earshot of telephone mouth and ear piece.
Who is missing below?
Quote Originally Posted by saxxie
"So will CHA make a counter offer???
Would'nt that be something Korea ,Japan and China possibly chasing this.."
If Korea CHA is connected to OCAT, will Japan and Korea become friendly? Would China be willing to partner with Japan?
Who would broker all the action? Or is there a better way?
Your thinking JPValas, your mindset is appreciated here. thankyou
You worry and i'll keep open mind.
The broad horizons of possibility and the best posible outcome of this situation is ahead.
Has the bidder raised their bid 30% in past buyouts?
OCAT Quote: "Can I add that the longer this goes on, the greater the chances we see another bidder, and the likelihood they begin pH 2."
Another offer to partner
would be deserved by those that have valued the OCAT science.
Phase 1 data has already been paid for in full and true deserving shareholders deserve to see it. IMO
A closed minded crystal ball mindset is not my style.
If it is true that Astelas upped their offer in other deals.
"Great sleuthing! Now the 10, 20, $30 question is what happened to make Astellas up their offer"
There are many sure things.
"There is one certainty, Astellas want this thing to be over and done before cohort 1, Phase 2 results
are announced. The mob will become uncontrollable if the outcome is as good as Phase1."
"twenty or thirty thousand other retail holders who are out there"
With 38 million in OCAT's Bank aprox.
For all that are sincere, honest and wanting the best possible outcome for efforts the very best to "you".
Is the true valuation of OCAT $27.00 or is it $8.50?
The first offer that came in is $8.50 so thus the today's marked has priced it in the $8.50ish area.
Did the valuation change quickly from $4.50 to $8.50? Yes
Could the valuation change quickly again? the answer is Yes.
Are there some people that think the valuation can not change? YES?
Yesterdays OCAT was $4.50ish today OCAT is $8.50ish tommorrow .... things change quickly. Why would Japan value OCAT at all? A few days ago a few people valued OCAT at 0.00
If another larger company offer comes in would they cash out or exchange shares in the new company?
The last time OCAT went to $27.00 many did not believe it would go up but it did with only success in rats and not success with people that eventualy happened and documented in the Lancet Peer Reviewed Journal. Many did not think that would happen as well and it did.
This is not a prediction it is just a few facts.
OCAT post: "Let's do some math...some very conservative math IMO.
SMD has a market of about 31000 in the US currently. With Orphan status a price of $100K treatment is not unjustified (and could likely go higher).
So in the US we have $3.1B potential market. Lets now discount that for time and risk. 2019 is the goal for commercialization (assuming SPA) so 3.5 years, or 35%. That puts us at $2B, just SMD, just US, but assuming 100% market penetration.
Now lets throw in another 50% discount for risk, market penetration etc. That puts us square at $1B. Above there are some assumptions, but also a lot of assets left out, such as SMD Europe, AMD and Auto immune, manufacturing IP, which should fill in any gaps from the above assumptions.
Bottom line, without making this a giant valuation post of all factors, $1B CONSERVATIVELY, feels like a VERY fair minumum price at this point. Frankly, if we start to add in all the assets and risks associated, the value grows, especially given P2 end points and time to those because those are for AMD, a much bigger market."
This OCAT post came from another board.
"My two cents is first to remind myself that we are talking what is Ocata worth today not six months from now or five years from now. I don't know precisely how one determines the value at this stage but I do remember Gary Rabin saying a company listed on exchange and beginning phase II could potentially be valued at a billion dollars depending on future perceived market value. And of course as Ocata/ACT stated many times we are looking at 30 plus billion. I always gave his comment validity as that was his expertise. But I also think twenty2 using Regeneron as precedent makes logical sense and would more likely be acceptable."
Thankyou and great post Jbuzzhal enjoyed reading it and wish you well in the future no matter what happens.
I know you have no post left however: If they change it to a stock swap would the market cap be greater?
Found this comment on another board.
"I agree, a market cap of 1 billion, that is the cost incurred by the company developing this therapy (if I remember correctly mentioned by ACT management few years ago)"
Management always get theirs and it's always unfair, so that is a given, no biggy to me.
The real question is, is there anything that could stop a competing bid offer? If nothing could stop a competing bid offer from coming in what would that mean if it happened? The heavy set lady can sing when ever she wants to even if you think she may be singing now.
She will sing when she is good and ready. IMO
Is there anyone on this board that thinks that the heavy set lady has not sung yet? Is there anyone that has a list of all the possibilities no matter how remote that could happen next?
The fair price for this company can change quickly and does not need to be that high but in years ahead can be worth that and more with continued scientific success.
Just look at a few years agoe when the price rose to $27.00 based on success in rats
Could a better offer from amother suitor emerge?
We know that OCAT has value, time will tell how much. Some think more and some think "way more".
It would be negative for the shorts prospects if PW knows that "first bid" could start a bidding war.
We can disagree all day however the savy know and can make up their own mind. They are not misguided, they make up their own mind.
Im hoping that those that have undermined the advancement of care for the afflicted will get an eye opener.
How many patients have been improved by your negativity?
Does the Lancet "Peer Reviewed" OCAT science have historic record of OCATA helping patients bettor and beyond any other company?
The answer is YES.
IMO "partnership" would help both Japan and USA/Europe.
Selling out all OCAT programs instead of partnering is less than i can fathom. G_d knows people from "all nations" need help from afflictions.
Another OCAT post from Bogeefree:
We must use social media to get the word out on this very bad deal and what it means to have this incredible proprietary technology that is USA born fall into foreign hands.
Would the USA sell its nuclear secrets for $389M to a foreign party?
This is a grave injustice and a huge loss to US technology control. Imagine if Lanza is right on being able to produce unlimited scalable platelet and blood. The country that controls this has huge influence across the world and America is going to let this be taken over by the Japanese?
Incredible and shows why this country is failing!
BF
OCAT Quote: "Marlborough stem cell pioneer Ocata attracts highway robbery bid from Astellas for nearly one sixty-forth its value"
Here's How Bad This Deal Is!
If you look at the offer of $389M that is on the table it begs the question, how long would it take this Japanese firm to get their investment back?
So here are my estimates:
1) $389M cash outlay
2) $75M over 3 years of investment spending to fund Ocata.
3) Total investment $464M
4) 25,0000 patients paying $25,000 per treatment = $625,000 in revenue
5) Ocata gross margin estimate is 75%
6) 625K X 75% = $468M
And that does not include the tax write off for all the years of Ocata losses that have accumulated on the books.
So PW sold the entire company and all of its science and patents to a foreign body who can recoup their entire investment after treating around 25,000 patients.
25K patients out of a 60M market opportunity is .04% of the market and that is for only AMD and SMD
Now look at how many DAYS it will take this firm to recoup their investment:
25,000 patients divided by just 25 sites who can inject 10 people per day equals 100 DAYS to treat 25,000 patients once the therapy is a approved.
PW IMO sold all of us out and ALL of Dr. Lanza's science (RPE, MSC and Blood) for a lousy 100 days of treatments.
This is not only a bad deal this is an out right steal IMO and a court of law should be all over this very bad deal where shareholders are getting the shaft while senior execs who some worked less than 2 years walk away with a huge payout.
I call on every law firm that fights for the common person to look into this deal and fight for this wrong!
All IMO
BF
I hope the science finds a "supportive-peer-group" that will nourish and grow to help fill the needs.
Will Dr. Lanza be involved with travel?
Could the offer be bumped up?
Is Korean-CHA happy?
Ocata Mentioned in The Life Science Report interview with Raymond James Analyst
"The preliminary data with Ocata's MA09-hRPE, used in about 30 patients, have shown that people with dry AMD who are on the way to blindness actually show improvement in visual acuity when they have had the subretinal injection/transplantation of these cells in their eyes.
The marketplace is huge. It's multiple billions of dollars bigger than wet AMD, where Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s (REGN:NASDAQ) Eylea (aflibercept) is currently selling billions of dollars on an annual basis. We think the Ocata data looks promising, and the company has some very interesting prospects going forward."
With heavy hitter Dr. Brian Levy to bat interesting contribution to OCAT. What could the connections be? Dr. Levy served in senior roles at Bausch + Lomb, Inc
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150831005411/en/Ocata-Therapeutics-Appoints-Dr.-Brian-Levy-Board
With OCAT's 50 day moving average now turning-up, could this be a sign of improved vision? No wonder “Ocata means ‘medicine man’.”
quote: "Ocata has demonstrated a clear advantage in both the intellectual property portfolio as well as current collective data
from current clinical trials."
OCAT has a fast growing institutional investor base along with a "relatively low share count and float".
Does OCAT have a near term and long term bullish recipe?
With the contributing medical team worldwide leaders in the field such as the Dr. Lanza/Team and Dr. Langer. Will a joint venture increase shareholder value along with the start of phase-two?
Ocata Therapeutics, Inc. entered into a secured term loan with Silicon Valley Bank.
“We are pleased to secure this additional, non-dilutive financing from a leading debt lender, with a history of supporting emerging biotechnology companies,” said Ted Myles, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. “The addition of this debt facility to the proceeds from our recently completed equity offering provides us with additional flexibility as we initiate our dry AMD Phase 2 safety trial, planned for this quarter and our SMD pivotal study, planned for the fourth quarter of this year.”