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The way I view and invest in this company is that its exclusively a play on patents & patents pending for "Snaking robotic arm with movable shapers". The amount of effort to define & refine meticously all the variables including the use of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) for example is making the R&D development for the competition very difficult to navigate without partial or complete infringement. So time is the second biggest asset for TMD and allowing the competition "catch up" is not a bad thing. IMO, there is a zero percent chance that they will go it alone and try to find a global distribution channel Partner that will impose milestones. Either they get taken out, or at the very least, become a royalty holding to outsource the key utility patents to the manufacturers.
SPORT19, my take is that the initial strategy is NOT on commercial production but rather on letting the competition know that they own several disruptive utility patents & pending on snaking arms in robotic surgery. Why else would the R&D not be performed behind closed doors??? Why put out videos for competition to analyze? They are obviously trying to feed the candy to the baby and are confident enough that they are the only ones that can get that candy.
The key to the snaking arms is that the angulation cable tensioners are designed for maximum torque which was based on the same concept sucessfully used in the industrial aeronautics. There are not 10 different ways to achieve this without push/pull angulation cables, its the law of physics and already used in flexible endoscopes today. The utility patent is owned by TMD which covers the overall use of snaking arms in robotic surgury, let alone angulation design. There is a big difference between a device patent and a utility patent! THIS is the reason why you cannot discount those who say that "its all in the patents". Question is, do you re-allocate R&D funds towards litigation and stall/halt the timeline or search for a firm that will do it based on an award percentage basis? That can only be decided when they go into commercial production. Until that time, speculation will always be present!
This closed at lightening speed, no need to test the appetite for participants. Should just go the private placement route and save on the fees and market uncertainty.
With the annual meeting to be held mid June, we should know at the latest mid May if the poison pill will be put to a vote. What I want to know is how this placement was able to fully subscribe within hours. Hopefully its a result of an accommodation to a validation group at IHU or Columbia. I cannot see any other reason based on publically disclosed information available to me as to WHY investors rushed into this raise so fast.
Sell the shares and buy the warrants for less capital exposure and higher leverage to gains.
At BigT82, you wrote "Offering should fill quickly and close this afternoon". Why so fast? Because the pricing was lower than it should have been or something else??? Hmmmm...
I hope not because the financing and its "success" will be placed in advance based and positioned on material information not yet disseminated. I doubt that they would take that kind of risk during a blackout period. Its just rinse and repeat.
I agree with your theory, but the end game is rinse and repeat until the well is dry.
At Jumpinjackas, no R/S while we are in rinse and repeat mode. Stakes are too high.
No R/S glg20 while this formula still works fine for the Institutions. Would you rather rinse and repeat on a spread between .23 and .30 or between 1.40 and 1.50? If your not a numbers guy, its works out to a steady 30% margin versus a 7% not including commissions!
Oh and if they are in the "unfortunate" position of holding a long position inventory, they just sell into the next open market strength, capping the pps again and then set up another dilutive financing. Rinse and Repeat!
Institutions play the secured spread between .23 and .30 which is a 30% swing secured margin and get paid a 7% guaranteed commission on top of that for their efforts. Rinse and repeat. When was the last time shareholders were offered this deal? It's NOT about the technology as much as a gain of a couple points for Institutional track record percentage returns.
This is what happens when your money is introduced to a CEO's first rodeo! Institutions run the rodeo for a couple of points.
Why bother announcing a poison pill on May 8, 2015 and incur associated legal costs?? Poison pill serves absolutely no purpose when you pull a massive dilutive financing with warrants every 90 days or so. I say, cancel that poison pill while we are still on life support! Let the horse out of the barn!!
The only scenario that I could possibly accept for this unexpected financing round would be to accommodate a "stretegic investor", something along the lines of the surgical team at IHU that gives credibility to the platform but "NOT" institutional that just turn around and sell again into some strength for a couple of points and extinguish any and all upside momentum.
There is more than enough money just sitting there in those warrants waiting to be exercised! Hello management!! Is anyone there??? What this is telling me is that there is absolutely nothing in the works that is positive enough to move the pps to the first strike price of .75
I listened to the conference call very carefully and no guidance was ever given to this very negative financing news. They speak with forked tongue and I tend to stay far away from this type of behaviour with my investments. Even more so when this information is leaked as we have clearly witnessed today!!!
That's a great attitude to remove emotions from decisions, even after holding for eight years. What I like most about TMD is that its one of the few listings with longterm warrants associated with them. I don't need to tie up all that capital for a higher leveraged exposure to any dramatic unforseen gains. With still years left to go on the F, G, H & I class, it feels like I'm holding shares.
TheMint wrote "Fluff... canadian patent". Any material information MUST be disseminated on a timely basis for publicly traded companies. Whether or not its impact has any material impact on the sp is irrelevant. The management should be concentrated on managing the company and its platform rather than its share price.
Backfermore, I'm not of the same view as you on the $9 target. I respect your opinion on a valuation, but thats just not how it works. Any offer will be subject to an independant(s) valuation(s) process that will be decided by a special committee formed by Titans BOD. What are some of the metrics of a formal valuation? R&D spent & left to go, historical market valuation & "reasonable" premium to last close and usually a double digit percentage as opposed to a triple digit percentage let alone a four digit percentage premium which would be required in your $9 valuation. Commercial value cannot be measured as its not even FDA approved yet. The only trump to the formal valuation is a competiting bid(S). If ISRG is interested, I believe it will be an all stock offer which they believe will benefit current holders with a continued exposure in the success of SPORT within another entity. Conserving cash is also another reason for all stock while benefitting from their sp at near 52 week high.
Pontiac, IMO its a software Partner and NOT a simulation software partner. CAE Healthcare is the simulation partner already announced in a press release on November 24th, 2009 by Titan. Ever since that announcement, validation has never been an issue or concern for me because CAE already developed a Platform for industrial aviation modelling and simulation tools that were used by aircraft manufacturers, so the trasition to a clinical-grade robotic surgery Platform reduced development risk. IMO, this is why they overcame the current limitations of robotic surgery (articulation arm/jaw torque & maneuverability) as witnessed by certain M.D.'s.
Mustang, I prefer not to answer but i will try to contribute helpful insight. Stay tuned, IMO, we are about to embark on an "interesting" journey to say the least. Many don't realize it yet but the utility patent portfolio is the single greatest asset of value, not the perception of sales generated from commercial production on a go-it-alone basis.
I have listed the corresponding expiry dates next to each warrant issue series. The only ones close to expiry are the C class due 25-Mar-2018 which would bring in $6,5 million, 10% of the $65 million. The remainding are not due to late 2020. Not listed are warrants & stock options that are issued to Directors & Management which represents a few million as well.
$65 million injection from warrants!
C - Class: 5,2 million out (expire 25-Mar-2018). @ $1.25 is $6,5 million. F - Class: 7 million out (expire 16-Nov-2020). @ $1.60 is $11,2 million. G - Class: 11,2 million out (expire 17-Feb-2021). @ $1.00 is $13,3 million. H - Class: 13,2 million out (expire 31-Mar-2021). @ $1.20 is $20,1 million. I - Class: 19,1 million out (expire 20-Sep-2021). @ $0.75 is $14,2 million. So there is more than enough just sitting there waiting for the shares to start heading north while striking each level on the way up. How do you achieve this, provide guidance to the market that this is your vision to fund the remaining $50 million. This will eliminate the uncertainty created by past equity issues that frustrated the market. These outstanding warrants which have been criticized in the past could actually be turned into a positive path to SPORT commercialisation.
End Effectors (Reusable versus Sterile Disposable)
I took a careful look at the ISRG (reusable) end effector versus the TMD (sterile disposable). These multi-articulating reusable instruments (tips) are very difficult & expensive per precedure to sterilize and adds to equipement downtime. Reusable also means that they have to be periodically maintained and repaired which incurs more cost and downtime. The risk of cross contamination is always present. TMD (sterile disposable) does NOT require any of the above. As well, your disposable tips are always operating at 100% efficiency (new) each procedure versus reusable that eventually requires it to be sent out for a precision sharpening on the micro scissors or a carbide insert replacement on a needle holder, etc. This is how TMD will lower its per precedure opex costs to the hospital to less than half of ISRG. Problem is that TMD holds certain exclusive utility patents that would make it much harder to copy without the risk of infringement. IMO, ISRG is looking at TMD, but so are many major manufacturers!
Microline - HOYA Corporation
Sterile Single Use End Effectors Microline is a wholly owned subsidiary of HOYA Corporation in Tokyo, Japan, a $6.3 billion company with approximately half of its revenue in medical business, including endoscopy and eye care. IMO, it would be logical for the Sport system to use their screw on disposable tips for suturing, grasping, cutting & coagulation. Disinfection & cross contamination has always been an issue. This is the only company that has developed these patented removeable tips. The major manufacturers use a long standard reusable push-rod type shaft with various effectors at the end. I would assume that Microline would want to retain market share in the growing robotic market for their disposable products. Could be a longshot, but could Microline be interested in entering the Robotic surgical market? I will add them to my list of major manufacturers with deep pockets looking to enter Robotics.
Single vs Multi-Port Robotic Assisted Proceedure
The Da Vinci is a 4 port multi robotic arm system which is okay for laparoscopic surgury if you prefer 4 punctures in your stomach instead of a single one. For Urology & Gyn, this is a different preceedure as you only have one possible entry point. IMO, the Da Vinci is more complicated than it should be as you have 4 large robotic arms that need to be covered in plastic wrap before each proceedure. Some would say that this is essential due to the limited articulating mobility of its insertion arms. Why then is SPORT able to achieve the same result using only a single port? IMO, the guide handles, aka joystick with Velcro wraps of the Da Vinci system does not resemble the ergonomics of a standard endoscopic handle that is presently used in manual M.I.S. in which the SPORT has based its Platform. The importance of this is when you are training existing surgeons to convert to robotic assisted surgury. One would think that by using the exact same ergonomic handles would make for a much smoother transition. So Da Vinci was first to market but SPORT is a more versatile system. TMD reminds of the tortoise and the hare!
Importance Of The IHU Installation
The Institute of Image-Guided Surgery France (IHU) was founded on November 28, 2011. The Karl STORZ Company was one of the 7 founding members! The owner and CEO sits on the board!! Why was TMD exclusively selected over all the existing platforms?? Could one speculate that Karl Storz, with an estimated $1,6 billion in annual sales (private co.) & probably considered the leading manufacturer in the Laparoscopy & Urology pre-robotic space, largest manual endoscopy manufacturer with over 80% market share would be working on a or evaluating a robotic platform to retain their position when hospitals replace manual with robotics. Entry at this point for a major manufacturer like Storz would be an ideal fit for a JV or Buyout. Just saying..........
$65 million injection from warrants!
C - Class: 5,2 million out. @ $1.25 is $6,5 million. F - Class: 7 million out. @ $1.60 is $11,2 million. G - Class: 11,2 million out. @ $1.00 is $13,3 million. H - Class: 13,2 million out. @ $1.20 is $20,1 million. I - Class: 19,1 million out. @ $0.75 is $14,2 million. So there is more than enough just sitting there waiting for the shares to start heading north while striking each level on the way up. How do you achieve this, provide guidance to the market that this is your vision to fund the remaining $50 million. This will eliminate the uncertainty created by past equity issues that frustrated the market. These outstanding warrants which have been criticized in the past could actually be turned into a positive path to SPORT commercialisation.
Karl Storz Robotic Surgical Platform The world leader in minimally invasive surgical endoscopy with an estimated $1,6 billion in annual sales. Can anyone post a link or give me the name of their robotic surgical platform? Are they even developing one?? If they have no interest in this next generation technology, do they just close up shop when manual (over the patient) endoscopy is gradualy phased out???
One mans trash is anothers treasure. If it were not for the small financing, there would never be those warrants that give fantastic 5 to 1 leverage. While at the same time you only have to outlay one fifth the capital exposure! A no brainer for the ones that understand warrants and can take a little risk.
Niobec Spinoff
Iamgold owns 100% of Quebec Niobium producer Niobec. In January 2011 they said that a spinoff might be considered. Will be interesting to see the valuation applied to that company. Valuations for SRSR and Niocan might be affected accordingly.
Canadian Niobium Takeover Targets
With 2 offers on the table (1 hostile & 1 friendly) for Niocan listed on the TSE (t.NIO) it looks like a consolidation is forming in this very tiny market. Shares soared 250% so far in 2011 and more players may still show up now that this sector is in-play. SRSR might be the next target!!
What is the degree of silica saturation from the perimeter of the complex to its core? Anyone??
That is an very excellant recovery level, especially in Nb and not disputed. I was refering to some of the other companies that have gotten ahead of themselves. What about the Silica levels? Is this a concern?
Don't get me wrong about the potential of SRSR as a Nb producer. But I think you would agree that we need some metallurgical testworks from some of those other exploration companies' properties to confirm high recovery rates before the assumption of a 90+% pyrochlore recovery rate.
The problem with most deposits and their REE recovery in Canada is that they are very early stage and until further conceptual studies are carried out, its very difficult to value these companies. As well, it also helps a great deal to be able to evaluate based on existing deposits in production. S-60 (Niocan) and Niobec(Iamgold) are the two most advanced projects in Quebec. The Niobec(Nb)deposit has been in production for many years but I don't believe that they recover the REE oxides. IMO, Niocan(Nb/Ta)on the other hand performed the tests back in 2000, not because of a hot market for REE's but rather to evaluate the impacts on a reduced operating cost per ton for the Nb. So for now I view the REE sector as a "highly speculative gamble" until we start to see much more advanced studies being performed and not just drilling results to increase reserves. Its all about quality, not quantity.
Rare earth oxides are unsually found within the pyrochlore concentrate of Niobium. You have to setup a separate refinery process (assuming its economical) to recover these elements. They are most often found within a carbinatite. The following link provides an example of this process; www.marketwire.com/press-release/Niocan-Plans-to-Revisit-Rare-Earths-Recovery-at-its-Oka-Niobium-Property-TSX-NIO-1131045.htm
Here is my list of Canadian Nb resource properties that might be of interest to foreign investment or purchase. I may have left some out but these will be the main focus going forward.
Niobec (IMG.t) producer. S-60 (NIO.t) near-term producer. Thor Lake (AVL.t) late stage exploration. Nemegosenda (SRSR) mid-term exploration, Blue River (CCE.v) mid-term exploration, Crevier (MDN.t) mid-term exploration. Aley (TKO.t) early stage exploration, Lonnie&Virgil (AMY.v) early stage exploration.
Are there any REE minerals contained other than Nb in the SRSR deposit?
I agree that the company is undervalued but there are other more advanced and higher grade Nb projects which trade at a discount to SRSR.