Precious Metals Summit *Something we’ve never seen before’ - VanEck’s Joe Foster on central banks buying gold

Sep 13, 2024 Kitco Mining Interviews
Forget worries that the economy is facing a hard landing, debt levels are the bigger risk, said Joe Foster, gold strategist at VanEck.

Foster spoke to Kitco Mining on Wednesday at the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado.

Gold hit several all-time highs in 2024. Foster attributes the historically high gold price of $2,500 per ounce to increased global risk, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainties. He believes that the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts will further boost the gold price. Foster also anticipates economic turmoil due to high debt levels and potential geopolitical escalations, which could drive gold prices even higher.

While central bank buying has been the primary driver of the gold rally, Western investment in gold ETFs has also picked up recently, signaling growing interest from institutional investors.Despite gold hitting several all-time highs, interest in the metal by the broader investing community remains tepid.

Foster said investors need to be shaken up for interest in gold to pick up.

“I hate to say it, but I think we need a crisis,” said Foster. “I think the market really needs to get worried about the outlook for the economy, for the debt situation or… some escalation on the geopolitical scene. I think that's the type of thing that would really shake people up, and get them to go to gold.”

Regarding the gold mining sector, Foster observed that M&A activity has been lower than expected, but he anticipates an increase as companies adjust their base price for gold and become more attracted to acquisitions. He also highlighted the challenges faced by junior gold developers, who are now required to do more in terms of permitting and feasibility studies before attracting the interest of larger companies.

Coverage of the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado is sponsored by Newcore Gold.

Precious Metals Summit *Something we’ve never seen before’ - VanEck’s Joe Foster on central banks buying gold

Sep 13, 2024 Kitco Mining Interviews
Forget worries that the economy is facing a hard landing, debt levels are the bigger risk, said Joe Foster, gold strategist at VanEck.

Foster spoke to Kitco Mining on Wednesday at the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado.

Gold hit several all-time highs in 2024. Foster attributes the historically high gold price of $2,500 per ounce to increased global risk, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainties. He believes that the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts will further boost the gold price. Foster also anticipates economic turmoil due to high debt levels and potential geopolitical escalations, which could drive gold prices even higher.

While central bank buying has been the primary driver of the gold rally, Western investment in gold ETFs has also picked up recently, signaling growing interest from institutional investors.Despite gold hitting several all-time highs, interest in the metal by the broader investing community remains tepid.

Foster said investors need to be shaken up for interest in gold to pick up.

“I hate to say it, but I think we need a crisis,” said Foster. “I think the market really needs to get worried about the outlook for the economy, for the debt situation or… some escalation on the geopolitical scene. I think that's the type of thing that would really shake people up, and get them to go to gold.”

Regarding the gold mining sector, Foster observed that M&A activity has been lower than expected, but he anticipates an increase as companies adjust their base price for gold and become more attracted to acquisitions. He also highlighted the challenges faced by junior gold developers, who are now required to do more in terms of permitting and feasibility studies before attracting the interest of larger companies.

Coverage of the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado is sponsored by Newcore Gold.

Rick Rule is writing checks - high metal prices, tepid equities is a good time to deploy capital


9,013 views Sep 13, 2024 Kitco Mining Interviews

Margins are still a struggle for the miners despite energy costs coming down, said Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media.

Rule Spoke to Kitco Mining on Wednesday at the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado. Rule is also the former CEO and president of Sprott.

Rule said it is a good market to invest in. He sees opportunities due to the disparity between rising commodity prices and stagnant equity prices. He focuses on companies with proven management teams and large-scale projects. Rule is open to investing in jurisdictions with perceived political risk.

But a lot of juniors are too small to make it, said Rule.

“Most of the juniors are subscale. They are so small that general administrative expenses consume most of the capital they raise,” said Rule.

“Those companies are doomed to fail. I suspect that three quarters of the juniors that are public worldwide — Australia, Canada, the United States, Great Britain — are valueless, absolutely valueless.”

Rule said the cost of oil has dropped, which helps, but other costs keep climbing.

“Energy costs have moderated, which is a good thing,” said Rule. “But the social take, which is to say taxes, royalties… things like that are increasing — at about 15 percent compounded. Labor costs are going up, spare parts are going up, finished steel is going up.

“I think there will be continued disappointment among investors about the fact that the margins, the producing margins, aren't increasing as fast as one would hope, given the increase in gold price.”

Rule said investors have to keep scale in mind. Bigger is better.

“Everything that can go wrong with a big mine can go wrong with a small mine,” said Rule. “But a small mine can never make you big money.”

Standing out is key, Rule said. It is a crowded field.

“I ask companies today about their social media strategy,” said Rule “If they don't have one, that's the end of the discussion.”

Coverage of the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado is sponsored by Newcore Gold.

Rick Rule is writing checks - high metal prices, tepid equities is a good time to deploy capital


9,013 views Sep 13, 2024 Kitco Mining Interviews

Margins are still a struggle for the miners despite energy costs coming down, said Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media.

Rule Spoke to Kitco Mining on Wednesday at the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado. Rule is also the former CEO and president of Sprott.

Rule said it is a good market to invest in. He sees opportunities due to the disparity between rising commodity prices and stagnant equity prices. He focuses on companies with proven management teams and large-scale projects. Rule is open to investing in jurisdictions with perceived political risk.

But a lot of juniors are too small to make it, said Rule.

“Most of the juniors are subscale. They are so small that general administrative expenses consume most of the capital they raise,” said Rule.

“Those companies are doomed to fail. I suspect that three quarters of the juniors that are public worldwide — Australia, Canada, the United States, Great Britain — are valueless, absolutely valueless.”

Rule said the cost of oil has dropped, which helps, but other costs keep climbing.

“Energy costs have moderated, which is a good thing,” said Rule. “But the social take, which is to say taxes, royalties… things like that are increasing — at about 15 percent compounded. Labor costs are going up, spare parts are going up, finished steel is going up.

“I think there will be continued disappointment among investors about the fact that the margins, the producing margins, aren't increasing as fast as one would hope, given the increase in gold price.”

Rule said investors have to keep scale in mind. Bigger is better.

“Everything that can go wrong with a big mine can go wrong with a small mine,” said Rule. “But a small mine can never make you big money.”

Standing out is key, Rule said. It is a crowded field.

“I ask companies today about their social media strategy,” said Rule “If they don't have one, that's the end of the discussion.”

Coverage of the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado is sponsored by Newcore Gold.

Precious Metals Summit: Top industry minds reflect on surging gold price, humdrum equities

Henry Lazenby - The Northern Miner | September 13, 2024 | 12:42 pm News Asia Canada China Russia and Central Asia Gold
Giustra Deluce Beaver Creek 2024 Gold Panel

Entrepreneur Frank Giustra makes a point with newsletter author Alex Deluce at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Col. Credit: Henry Lazenby
Industry leaders debated the roles of economic uncertainty, inflation and monetary policy in driving gold to a record high this week at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado, even as many gold equities have underperformed.


The experts predict gold, which hit an all-time high of $2,554.78 per oz. on Thursday, to be on a long-term bull run. Some of the sector’s most respected voices, including Sprott’s John Hathaway, mining entrepreneur Frank Giustra, gold fund manager Ronald-Peter Stöferle and investor guru Rick Rule, said central bank gold buying, geopolitical tension and a divergence from traditional asset classes are boosting gold’s price.

Hathaway, managing partner of Sprott Asset Management, says less than 1% of most investment portfolios are allocated to gold, showing how the asset is misunderstood. Reallocating just 2-3% to gold could push up prices by $1,000 per oz., he said.

“Positioning in gold is still incredibly low among mainstream investors,” he said during a keynote discussion with Stöferle, managing partner at Liechtenstein-based Incrementum. “Yet, with today’s new record, we are already seeing signs of the market shifting.”

Central banks
Stöferle, who publishes the annual In Gold We Trust report, said central banks have been soaking up as much as 30% of annual global gold production. In the first half of 2023 alone, central banks purchased 483 tonnes of gold — a record, according to Stöferle’s data — since sanctions against Russia began in 2022.

“It’s clear that we’re seeing a de-dollarization trend, with emerging markets increasingly looking to gold as a reserve asset,” Stöferle said.

The fund manager says that while inflation may not be a short-term concern, the longer-term outlook is inflationary.

“We’ve spent the last 30 years globalizing, and now we’re moving in the opposite direction. De-globalization is inherently inflationary,” he said.

Giustra, who helped start Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM, NYSE: WPM; LSE: WPM) and Endeavour Mining (TSX: EDV; LSE: EDV) among other businesses, agreed that fiscal stimulus, such as those in the United States, continue to drive inflation.

Even so, U.S. inflation cooled to 2.5% in August and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates this month.

US fiscal crisis
Giustra was particularly vocal about the US fiscal outlook, warning that the country’s ballooning debt and deficits will only worsen in a recession.

“The US is running a $1.9 trillion deficit at full employment. What happens when we enter a recession? The deficit could easily balloon to $4 trillion,” he said during a keynote fireside chat with Alex Deluce, editor of Gold Telegraph.

Giustra suggests mainstream media avoids discussing the genuine issues affecting the US economic outlook and the country’s dire fiscal state because no one wants to address the difficult choices ahead. His point is that the only options left—such as inflating away the debt—are highly favourable for gold.

“When the only escape from a fiscal crisis is devaluation, gold becomes the ultimate hedge.”

While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, both Giustra and Stöferle urged caution in the short term. Stöferle suggested that the gold prices could fall by $200 per oz. in the coming months as the market digests recent gains.

“I’m not overly bullish in the short term. A breather to $2,300 or $2,350 per oz. wouldn’t be a crash—it would be a healthy consolidation,” Stöferle explained.

Longer term, he said it could reach as high as $4,800 per oz., though not all panelists agreed.

Price vs equities
Despite gold’s price surge, mining equities have dramatically underwhelmed.

Rule pointed out that the GDX, an index of gold mining stocks, is down 40% over the past decade. He attributed this underperformance to poor capital allocation, inflationary pressures, and ill-timed mergers and acquisitions.

“There have been some downright stupid capital decisions, especially around M&A and cost inflation,” Rule said. They have tarnished the industry’s image as “a place where money dies.”

Despite these setbacks, he says gold mining equities are poised for a rebound because energy prices have stabilized and input costs have fallen, boosting the earnings potential for gold miners. Rule forecasts the GDX index to double as investors return to the space in the medium term.

Giustra said institutional investors are, frustratingly, still sitting on the equity sidelines, waiting for a more sustained rally before moving back into the space. Like Hathaway, he underlined that once generalist investors re-enter the market, gold mining equities could see a significant upward move.

“The market is waiting for a catalyst. When that comes, we’ll see a flood of capital into mining stocks,” Giustra said.

Macro shifts
Stöferle said the gold price action has shifted to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, driven by global de-dollarization efforts.

“The marginal gold buyer is no longer in the West,” Stöferle said. “China, India, and other emerging markets now account for 50% of physical gold demand and 66% of global jewellery demand.”

Hathaway echoed these points, adding that gold is no longer viewed as just a hedge but as an integral part of emerging market strategies to rebalance global trade.

“De-dollarization is happening, albeit slowly,” he said. “We’re seeing more trade settled in local currencies, backed by gold reserves, as a means to avoid reliance on US dollar treasuries.”
https://www.mining.com/precious-metals-summit-top-industry-minds-reflect-on-surging-gold-price-humdrum-equities/

Precious Metals Summit: Top industry minds reflect on surging gold price, humdrum equities

Henry Lazenby - The Northern Miner | September 13, 2024 | 12:42 pm News Asia Canada China Russia and Central Asia Gold
Giustra Deluce Beaver Creek 2024 Gold Panel

Entrepreneur Frank Giustra makes a point with newsletter author Alex Deluce at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Col. Credit: Henry Lazenby
Industry leaders debated the roles of economic uncertainty, inflation and monetary policy in driving gold to a record high this week at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado, even as many gold equities have underperformed.


The experts predict gold, which hit an all-time high of $2,554.78 per oz. on Thursday, to be on a long-term bull run. Some of the sector’s most respected voices, including Sprott’s John Hathaway, mining entrepreneur Frank Giustra, gold fund manager Ronald-Peter Stöferle and investor guru Rick Rule, said central bank gold buying, geopolitical tension and a divergence from traditional asset classes are boosting gold’s price.

Hathaway, managing partner of Sprott Asset Management, says less than 1% of most investment portfolios are allocated to gold, showing how the asset is misunderstood. Reallocating just 2-3% to gold could push up prices by $1,000 per oz., he said.

“Positioning in gold is still incredibly low among mainstream investors,” he said during a keynote discussion with Stöferle, managing partner at Liechtenstein-based Incrementum. “Yet, with today’s new record, we are already seeing signs of the market shifting.”

Central banks
Stöferle, who publishes the annual In Gold We Trust report, said central banks have been soaking up as much as 30% of annual global gold production. In the first half of 2023 alone, central banks purchased 483 tonnes of gold — a record, according to Stöferle’s data — since sanctions against Russia began in 2022.

“It’s clear that we’re seeing a de-dollarization trend, with emerging markets increasingly looking to gold as a reserve asset,” Stöferle said.

The fund manager says that while inflation may not be a short-term concern, the longer-term outlook is inflationary.

“We’ve spent the last 30 years globalizing, and now we’re moving in the opposite direction. De-globalization is inherently inflationary,” he said.

Giustra, who helped start Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM, NYSE: WPM; LSE: WPM) and Endeavour Mining (TSX: EDV; LSE: EDV) among other businesses, agreed that fiscal stimulus, such as those in the United States, continue to drive inflation.

Even so, U.S. inflation cooled to 2.5% in August and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates this month.

US fiscal crisis
Giustra was particularly vocal about the US fiscal outlook, warning that the country’s ballooning debt and deficits will only worsen in a recession.

“The US is running a $1.9 trillion deficit at full employment. What happens when we enter a recession? The deficit could easily balloon to $4 trillion,” he said during a keynote fireside chat with Alex Deluce, editor of Gold Telegraph.

Giustra suggests mainstream media avoids discussing the genuine issues affecting the US economic outlook and the country’s dire fiscal state because no one wants to address the difficult choices ahead. His point is that the only options left—such as inflating away the debt—are highly favourable for gold.

“When the only escape from a fiscal crisis is devaluation, gold becomes the ultimate hedge.”

While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, both Giustra and Stöferle urged caution in the short term. Stöferle suggested that the gold prices could fall by $200 per oz. in the coming months as the market digests recent gains.

“I’m not overly bullish in the short term. A breather to $2,300 or $2,350 per oz. wouldn’t be a crash—it would be a healthy consolidation,” Stöferle explained.

Longer term, he said it could reach as high as $4,800 per oz., though not all panelists agreed.

Price vs equities
Despite gold’s price surge, mining equities have dramatically underwhelmed.

Rule pointed out that the GDX, an index of gold mining stocks, is down 40% over the past decade. He attributed this underperformance to poor capital allocation, inflationary pressures, and ill-timed mergers and acquisitions.

“There have been some downright stupid capital decisions, especially around M&A and cost inflation,” Rule said. They have tarnished the industry’s image as “a place where money dies.”

Despite these setbacks, he says gold mining equities are poised for a rebound because energy prices have stabilized and input costs have fallen, boosting the earnings potential for gold miners. Rule forecasts the GDX index to double as investors return to the space in the medium term.

Giustra said institutional investors are, frustratingly, still sitting on the equity sidelines, waiting for a more sustained rally before moving back into the space. Like Hathaway, he underlined that once generalist investors re-enter the market, gold mining equities could see a significant upward move.

“The market is waiting for a catalyst. When that comes, we’ll see a flood of capital into mining stocks,” Giustra said.

Macro shifts
Stöferle said the gold price action has shifted to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, driven by global de-dollarization efforts.

“The marginal gold buyer is no longer in the West,” Stöferle said. “China, India, and other emerging markets now account for 50% of physical gold demand and 66% of global jewellery demand.”

Hathaway echoed these points, adding that gold is no longer viewed as just a hedge but as an integral part of emerging market strategies to rebalance global trade.

“De-dollarization is happening, albeit slowly,” he said. “We’re seeing more trade settled in local currencies, backed by gold reserves, as a means to avoid reliance on US dollar treasuries.”
https://www.mining.com/precious-metals-summit-top-industry-minds-reflect-on-surging-gold-price-humdrum-equities/

****Precious Metals Summit Conference****

Where the smart money goes prospecting®

Focused on Emerging Growth Companies
Precious Metals Summits provide a one-stop destination for institutional investors, sell-side representatives and corporate development executives from senior precious metals companies who want to be ahead of the pack in identifying the most prospective explorers and developers from around the globe. Our unique, by-invitation Summits offer delegates the opportunity to attend corporate presentations, meet one-on-one with senior management and to network in an exclusive yet warm and relaxed atmosphere.

Speakers list
Our world-class Summit Speakers have included: >>>>> https://www.precioussummit.com/speakers/

Precious Metals Summit Conference

Where the smart money goes prospecting®

Focused on Emerging Growth Companies
Precious Metals Summits provide a one-stop destination for institutional investors, sell-side representatives and corporate development executives from senior precious metals companies who want to be ahead of the pack in identifying the most prospective explorers and developers from around the globe. Our unique, by-invitation Summits offer delegates the opportunity to attend corporate presentations, meet one-on-one with senior management and to network in an exclusive yet warm and relaxed atmosphere.

Speakers list
Our world-class Summit Speakers have included: >>>>> https://www.precioussummit.com/speakers/

Market analyst Kranzler, London trader Maguire discuss market rigging et al.
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-09-13 18:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
5:59p ET Saturday, September 13, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial letter writer Dave Kranzler is London metals trader Andrew Maguire's guest this week on Kinesis Money's "Live from the Vault" program, discussing market manipulation, the likely consequences of the Federal Reserve's impending reduction of U.S. interest rates, the explosive rise in U.S. government debt, and whether anyone outside the United States will want to own U.S. government bonds.

The program is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

Market analyst Kranzler, London trader Maguire discuss market rigging et al.
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-09-13 18:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
5:59p ET Saturday, September 13, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial letter writer Dave Kranzler is London metals trader Andrew Maguire's guest this week on Kinesis Money's "Live from the Vault" program, discussing market manipulation, the likely consequences of the Federal Reserve's impending reduction of U.S. interest rates, the explosive rise in U.S. government debt, and whether anyone outside the United States will want to own U.S. government bonds.

The program is an hour long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

Drilling Results – How Can You Determine if a Mining Company’s Drill Results are of Low, Medium or High Grade

Drilling results for base metals are typically reported in percentage per tonne (%), while precious metals are reported in grams per tonne (g/t). As an investor, it’s crucial to understand if a drill result indicates low-, medium-, or high-grade mineralization, as this can provide insight into the potential financial outcomes of the deposit.

After analyzing and interpreting various drill reports to differentiate between low-, medium-, and high-grade mineralization, I have summarized my findings in the following table:

Low Grade, Medium Grade and High Grade Mineralization
here's the table >>>>>>Click

https://undervaluedequity.com/drilling-results-how-can-you-determine-if-a-mining-companys-drill-results-are-of-low-medium-or-high-grade/

Hope this helps WATM The Fox hit the home run
$MUX

Drilling Results – How Can You Determine if a Mining Company’s Drill Results are of Low, Medium or High Grade

Drilling results for base metals are typically reported in percentage per tonne (%), while precious metals are reported in grams per tonne (g/t). As an investor, it’s crucial to understand if a drill result indicates low-, medium-, or high-grade mineralization, as this can provide insight into the potential financial outcomes of the deposit.

After analyzing and interpreting various drill reports to differentiate between low-, medium-, and high-grade mineralization, I have summarized my findings in the following table:

Low Grade, Medium Grade and High Grade Mineralization
here's the table >>>>>>Click
https://undervaluedequity.com/drilling-results-how-can-you-determine-if-a-mining-companys-drill-results-are-of-low-medium-or-high-grade/

Hope this helps WATM The Fox hit the home run

Apache sacred land threatened by mining in Arizona

Apache sacred land threatened by mining in Arizona

Silver Set for a Breakout? A Detailed Look at the Bullish Case for Silver

September 12th, 2024
·
In the latest episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey dives deep into pattern recognition and its crucial role in both ice hockey and investing

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/12/silver-set-for-a-breakout-a-detailed-look-at-the-bullish-case-for-silver-003451

Economic principles don’t change with the times. In 1788, Jefferson wrote,

McEwen Mining: Navigating Challenges with Strong Exploration Potential and Improved Financial Metricsnn

PUBLISHED / MODIFIED SEP 11 2024
CSIMARKET TEAM / CSIMARKET.COM

In a recent update, McEwen Mining Inc. highlighted significant developments in its Grey Fox exploration project, showcasing accessible mineralization and promising exploration potential. Despite facing a challenging market, evidenced by a 6.47% decline in share price during the third quarter of 2024, the company continues to move forward strategically.

The exploration update reveals a wealth of opportunities within the Grey Fox property. The site possesses mineralization that is not only accessible but also conducive to future resource extraction, underscoring the company?s commitment to enhancing its production portfolio. This comes at a time when McEwen Mining is aggressively seeking to optimize its asset base, positioning itself for a more robust performance moving forward.

In addition to exploration advancements, McEwen Mining reported encouraging financial performance in its second quarter of 2024. The company boasted a return on assets (ROA) of 12.64%, significantly outperforming its historical average of -12.31%. This improvement can be attributed to a substantial growth in net income, which surged from 7.99% in the first quarter of 2024 to its current level, reflecting the effectiveness of McEwen?s operational strategies.

Continues here >>>> https://csimarket.com/news/mcewen-mining-navigating-challenges-with-strong-exploration-potential-and-improved-financial-metricsnn2024-09-11110266

Snake Oil Salesman

Snake Oil Salesman

Weekend edition of Steer's Gold and Silver Digest posted in the clear at SilverSeek

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-09-09 18:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
6:30p ET Monday, September 9, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The weekend edition of GATA board member Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest letter is headlined "A Very Encouraging CoT Report, But. ..." and it's posted in the clear at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/very-encouraging-cot-report


CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

I Speak Jive

Weekend edition of Steer's Gold and Silver Digest posted in the clear at SilverSeek

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-09-09 18:33 Section: Daily Dispatches
6:30p ET Monday, September 9, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The weekend edition of GATA board member Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest letter is headlined "A Very Encouraging CoT Report, But. ..." and it's posted in the clear at GoldSeek's companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/very-encouraging-cot-report


CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Big Sunday Show That Makes Us Money

Good evening Ladies & Gentleman
The U.S. Dollar as We Know It Ends in 10 Days
Take it away Steven

Big Sunday Show That Makes You Money

Good evening Ladies & Gentleman
The U.S. Dollar as We Know It Ends in 10 Days
Take it away Steven

Iconic US steel assets face chopping block without Japan deal

Bloomberg News | September 6, 2024 | 10:00 am USA Iron Ore

United States Steel Corp. faces the prospect of being broken apart and sold in parts if Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion takeover fails.


That’s the view of analysts following the latest twists of the proposed takeover of one of the most iconic American companies. Nippon Steel’s deal is subject to a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, and President Joe Biden plans to kill it as soon as the CFIUS referral lands on his desk, Bloomberg reported this week

The fate of the deal isn’t entirely clear. As of earlier this week, CFIUS hasn’t transmitted the case to the president. And while Biden has said US Steel should remain American owned and is said to be planning to kill the deal, the White House hasn’t pledged to do so publicly or given any timeline. Top Japanese officials say they’re hopeful issues can be resolved.

If the transaction does get blocked, US Steel will likely be forced to restart a sale process — a year after its earlier attempt to find a buyer — and this time it’s unclear who, if anyone, would be willing to acquire the whole company, according to analysts.

“It’s hard to see any steel entity as they are today buying all of US Steel,” said Josh Spoores, principal steel analyst at CRU Group. “It may end up getting split up between bidders.”

Bidders for US Steel’s assets could range from private equity firms, investment firms and other domestic steel producers, Spoores said.

US Steel’s new electric steelmaking mill in Arkansas, known as Big River Steel, is arguably its most valuable asset. American producers including Nucor Corp. and Steel Dynamics Inc. — which are actively investing in less-polluting manufacturing processes — could be among potential buyers of the plant, according to Philip Gibbs, analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking comment.

Meanwhile, its traditional union-operated blast furnace facilities may prove less appealing, with recent comments from US Steel hurting their sale prospects. Chief Executive Officer David Burritt said Wednesday that without the Nippon Steel transaction, the company will largely pivot away from its blast furnace facilities.

“They effectively acknowledge that the blast furnace assets need investments to be competitive over the next five to 10 years,” Gibbs said. “Anyone buying those is probably going to get some sort of deal.”

US Steel didn’t provide further comment on the prospects of alternatives if the Nippon Steel deal falters. Nippon Steel didn’t immediately comment.

US Steel’s blast furnace plants, which rely on heating coal to make steel and are typically operated by union workers, could be acquired by rival Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., including the historical Mon Valley plant in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, where both US Steel and the United Steelworkers union are headquartered. Cliffs lost out to Nippon Steel last December in the bidding process for US Steel.

Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves has repeatedly said he’s still interested in US Steel, reiterating his position as late as Thursday in a CNBC interview. The CEO’s comments come despite Cliffs being in the midst of acquiring Canadian steelmaker Stelco Holdings Inc. in a $2.8 billion deal.

An US Steel acquisition by Cliffs could raise antitrust concerns, given the increased concentration of domestic steel production in the hands of a single company, according to Wolfe Research analyst Timna Tanners.

Iconic US steel assets face chopping block without Japan deal

Bloomberg News | September 6, 2024 | 10:00 am USA Iron Ore

United States Steel Corp. faces the prospect of being broken apart and sold in parts if Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion takeover fails.


That’s the view of analysts following the latest twists of the proposed takeover of one of the most iconic American companies. Nippon Steel’s deal is subject to a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, and President Joe Biden plans to kill it as soon as the CFIUS referral lands on his desk, Bloomberg reported this week

The fate of the deal isn’t entirely clear. As of earlier this week, CFIUS hasn’t transmitted the case to the president. And while Biden has said US Steel should remain American owned and is said to be planning to kill the deal, the White House hasn’t pledged to do so publicly or given any timeline. Top Japanese officials say they’re hopeful issues can be resolved.

If the transaction does get blocked, US Steel will likely be forced to restart a sale process — a year after its earlier attempt to find a buyer — and this time it’s unclear who, if anyone, would be willing to acquire the whole company, according to analysts.

“It’s hard to see any steel entity as they are today buying all of US Steel,” said Josh Spoores, principal steel analyst at CRU Group. “It may end up getting split up between bidders.”

Bidders for US Steel’s assets could range from private equity firms, investment firms and other domestic steel producers, Spoores said.

US Steel’s new electric steelmaking mill in Arkansas, known as Big River Steel, is arguably its most valuable asset. American producers including Nucor Corp. and Steel Dynamics Inc. — which are actively investing in less-polluting manufacturing processes — could be among potential buyers of the plant, according to Philip Gibbs, analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking comment.

Meanwhile, its traditional union-operated blast furnace facilities may prove less appealing, with recent comments from US Steel hurting their sale prospects. Chief Executive Officer David Burritt said Wednesday that without the Nippon Steel transaction, the company will largely pivot away from its blast furnace facilities.

“They effectively acknowledge that the blast furnace assets need investments to be competitive over the next five to 10 years,” Gibbs said. “Anyone buying those is probably going to get some sort of deal.”

US Steel didn’t provide further comment on the prospects of alternatives if the Nippon Steel deal falters. Nippon Steel didn’t immediately comment.

US Steel’s blast furnace plants, which rely on heating coal to make steel and are typically operated by union workers, could be acquired by rival Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., including the historical Mon Valley plant in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, where both US Steel and the United Steelworkers union are headquartered. Cliffs lost out to Nippon Steel last December in the bidding process for US Steel.

Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves has repeatedly said he’s still interested in US Steel, reiterating his position as late as Thursday in a CNBC interview. The CEO’s comments come despite Cliffs being in the midst of acquiring Canadian steelmaker Stelco Holdings Inc. in a $2.8 billion deal.

An US Steel acquisition by Cliffs could raise antitrust concerns, given the increased concentration of domestic steel production in the hands of a single company, according to Wolfe Research analyst Timna Tanners.

China lodges WTO complaint over Canada’s EV and metal tariffs

Reuters | September 6, 2024 | 7:05 am Battery Metals Canada China Aluminum
China, world's top graphite producer, to curb exports of key battery material

China will take Canada to the World Trade Organization to challenge Ottawa’s decision to impose new tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.


The Ministry of Commerce labeled the tariffs as “trade protectionism” that distort global supply chains and urged Canada to withdraw the measures, according to a statement Friday.

This is the third time China has brought EV tariffs to the WTO this year, following cases against the US in March and the European Union in August. As China’s exports rise to counter its slowing domestic economy, more countries are raising or contemplating tariffs on Chinese goods.

Canada announced last week it would impose 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs effective October 1. The new tariff will also apply to certain hybrid passenger cars, trucks, buses, and delivery vans, in addition to the existing 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs. A 25% levy on Chinese steel and aluminum will go into effect on October 15.

Beijing has also started an anti-dumping probe into rapeseed imports from Canada, the Commerce Ministry said this week, adding that China will take all necessary actions to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.
https://www.mining.com/web/china-lodges-wto-complaint-over-canadas-ev-and-metal-tariffs/

Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (Lyrics) ft. Billy Ray Cyrus

China lodges WTO complaint over Canada’s EV and metal tariffs

Reuters | September 6, 2024 | 7:05 am Battery Metals Canada China Aluminum
China, world's top graphite producer, to curb exports of key battery material

China will take Canada to the World Trade Organization to challenge Ottawa’s decision to impose new tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.


The Ministry of Commerce labeled the tariffs as “trade protectionism” that distort global supply chains and urged Canada to withdraw the measures, according to a statement Friday.

This is the third time China has brought EV tariffs to the WTO this year, following cases against the US in March and the European Union in August. As China’s exports rise to counter its slowing domestic economy, more countries are raising or contemplating tariffs on Chinese goods.

Canada announced last week it would impose 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs effective October 1. The new tariff will also apply to certain hybrid passenger cars, trucks, buses, and delivery vans, in addition to the existing 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs. A 25% levy on Chinese steel and aluminum will go into effect on October 15.

Beijing has also started an anti-dumping probe into rapeseed imports from Canada, the Commerce Ministry said this week, adding that China will take all necessary actions to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies.
https://www.mining.com/web/china-lodges-wto-complaint-over-canadas-ev-and-metal-tariffs/

Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (Lyrics) ft. Billy Ray Cyrus

Why gold stocks could be a contrarian investor’s dream right now

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors | September 2, 2024 | 10:43 am Markets Gold


As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.


And yet, despite the bull run, gold stocks—those companies that mine, process and sell the metal—are trading at historically low valuations relative to the market.

Gold Stock Valuations Remain Cheap Even as the Metal Has Surged to Record High Prices
This apparent disconnect offers contrarian investors an extraordinary opportunity.

Rising yields and the gold selloff explained
But first, why is this happening? The primary culprit for this disparity, I believe, lies in the impact of interest rates and central banks’ gold-buying spree. The real, inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yield rose from a low of around -1.2% in August 2021 to nearly 2.5% in October 2023, and for many investors, particularly those in Western countries, rising yields are a signal to sell non-interest-bearing gold.

That’s exactly what happened. From the end of 2020 to May 2024, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold shed approximately 30 million ounces, over a quarter of their total holdings, as yield-seeking investors pared back their positions.

Investors Unloaded 30 Million Ounces of Gold as Yields Climbed
What some investors may have overlooked, I’m afraid, is the long-term potential of the very assets they were letting go of. Gold stocks, unlike the physical metal, offer not just a hedge but also a means of participating in the upside of gold prices. Put another way, when gold prices have gone up, gold stocks have historically tended to rise even more.

Right now, I believe these stocks are offering an unprecedented combination of low valuations and high potential returns.

A contrarian take on gold stocks
As contrarians, we understand that the best time to invest is often when sentiment is at its lowest. And sentiment around gold equities is pretty low right now.

But history tells us that this could be the perfect time to buy. As you may be able to tell in the chart above, we’re seeing a reversal of the gold ETF selloff. Since mid-May, investors have added about 2.3 million ounces of gold, according to Bloomberg data; holdings now stand at their highest level since February of this year.

This could be just the beginning. If real interest fall substantially, the tide could turn in favor of gold and gold equities.

$3,000 gold by mid-2025?
Historically, gold’s biggest gains have occurred when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates amid economic uncertainty. Although there’s no obvious crisis on the horizon, markets are pricing in a 25-basis point cut at each of the next two Fed meetings in September and November, with a larger cut expected in December.

If the Fed follows through, we could see gold prices not only maintain their current levels but soar to new heights. UBS is calling for $2,700 gold by mid-2025; Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America all see the metal hitting $3,000.

(By Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors)
https://www.mining.com/web/why-gold-stocks-could-be-a-contrarian-investors-dream-right-now/

Stuck in The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel

Why gold stocks could be a contrarian investor’s dream right now

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors | September 2, 2024 | 10:43 am Markets Gold


As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.


And yet, despite the bull run, gold stocks—those companies that mine, process and sell the metal—are trading at historically low valuations relative to the market.

Gold Stock Valuations Remain Cheap Even as the Metal Has Surged to Record High Prices
This apparent disconnect offers contrarian investors an extraordinary opportunity.

Rising yields and the gold selloff explained
But first, why is this happening? The primary culprit for this disparity, I believe, lies in the impact of interest rates and central banks’ gold-buying spree. The real, inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yield rose from a low of around -1.2% in August 2021 to nearly 2.5% in October 2023, and for many investors, particularly those in Western countries, rising yields are a signal to sell non-interest-bearing gold.

That’s exactly what happened. From the end of 2020 to May 2024, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical gold shed approximately 30 million ounces, over a quarter of their total holdings, as yield-seeking investors pared back their positions.

Investors Unloaded 30 Million Ounces of Gold as Yields Climbed
What some investors may have overlooked, I’m afraid, is the long-term potential of the very assets they were letting go of. Gold stocks, unlike the physical metal, offer not just a hedge but also a means of participating in the upside of gold prices. Put another way, when gold prices have gone up, gold stocks have historically tended to rise even more.

Right now, I believe these stocks are offering an unprecedented combination of low valuations and high potential returns.

A contrarian take on gold stocks
As contrarians, we understand that the best time to invest is often when sentiment is at its lowest. And sentiment around gold equities is pretty low right now.

But history tells us that this could be the perfect time to buy. As you may be able to tell in the chart above, we’re seeing a reversal of the gold ETF selloff. Since mid-May, investors have added about 2.3 million ounces of gold, according to Bloomberg data; holdings now stand at their highest level since February of this year.

This could be just the beginning. If real interest fall substantially, the tide could turn in favor of gold and gold equities.

$3,000 gold by mid-2025?
Historically, gold’s biggest gains have occurred when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates amid economic uncertainty. Although there’s no obvious crisis on the horizon, markets are pricing in a 25-basis point cut at each of the next two Fed meetings in September and November, with a larger cut expected in December.

If the Fed follows through, we could see gold prices not only maintain their current levels but soar to new heights. UBS is calling for $2,700 gold by mid-2025; Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America all see the metal hitting $3,000.

(By Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors)
https://www.mining.com/web/why-gold-stocks-could-be-a-contrarian-investors-dream-right-now/

Stuck in The Middle With You - Stealers Wheel

Goldman cuts copper price forecast by $5,000 as bullish bet closed
Bloomberg News | September 3, 2024 | 7:24 am

They expect prices to average $10,100 next year, compared with a previous target of $15,000 a ton championed by former analysts Jeffrey Currie and Nicholas Snowdon.

Full Read here
https://www.mining.com/web/goldman-cuts-copper-price-forecast-by-5000-as-bullish-bet-closed/

Goldman cuts copper price forecast by $5,000 as bullish bet closed
Bloomberg News | September 3, 2024 | 7:24 am

They expect prices to average $10,100 next year, compared with a previous target of $15,000 a ton championed by former analysts Jeffrey Currie and Nicholas Snowdon.

Full Read here
https://www.mining.com/web/goldman-cuts-copper-price-forecast-by-5000-as-bullish-bet-closed/

*********Event End Marker*************TYs

Thanks you everyone it was the most fun I've ever had on IHUB.

Special Thanks to IHUB for allowing and broadcasting this three day event.

and Super Special Thanks to all the people that shared and participated .

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MMGYS Labor Day Weekend Special

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