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$1.00 will be the new $.75 real soon!
I'm not very good with mathematics. When the 200 day MA and 50 day MA do cross where do you think the price will be when the crossover occurs? I think we will see this event in about a week and the price will be north of a $1, perhaps around the $1.05-$1.15 range?
This could be the 3rd time we have closed with daily volume under 600,000 since mid April. The last time was 2 weeks ago when we closed with around 353,000, which preceeded a runup only a couple of days later. I expect one more day of the mid .70's and come Tuesday IMO this will run.
Managed .74
Just upped to .745 maybe I can get filled here.
My order is about an hour old now and hasn't been filled yet. I think I will up my bid by .005!
The 2009 bond price represents two things to me.
1. Those that are purchasing them know for sure that Chemtura will make good on payment on or before exit from bankruptcy.
2. Or, a deal is in the works or already completed that sweetens the pot for bondholders.
It's one thing to gamble with small amounts of money, but we're talking about millions here. These bonds aren't $.02 cents each, they're $90.00 plus. Like Skauble stated, "Idiots do not make million dollar trades on a bond backed by a company in BK unless they have fairly calculated their risk". They obviously have been given some indication that the risk is very low. They know something and it's not about write offs.
I upped my bid to .74 a half hour ago and haven't been filled yet either. Might go to .745 but no higher today.
How does he plan to address the public? Is he going to stand in front of a podium and adress the shareholders? I don't recall him doing anything beyond a written statement or a one on one interview since they filed for bankruptcy. I wouldn't want to read too much into this, but if he finally comes out and speaks publicly after five and a half months in bankruptcy, then whatever he has to say should be good.
Are you expecting announcement of an asset sale on Monday? I'd heard Rogerson was going to speak on either the 7th or 8th, but hadn't heard anything about what the topic might be. If we do hear from him and he does confirm an asset sale, the percentage jump will be huge, however I'm not holding my breath.
One of the ways that you use the moving average information is by following a rule called the Golden Cross or the Death Cross. Here is how it works. When a stocks price begins a move up, the shorter term moving average will generally begin below the longer term moving average. So, the 50 day moving average will be below the 200 day moving average. As the price continues its ascent, the 50 day moving average will cross the 200 day moving average and continue above it until there is a change in the price action of the stock. The point at which the shorter term moving average moves above the longer term moving average is known as the Golden Cross, and is considered a buy point. Conversely, when the 50day moving average crosses the 200day moving average to the downside, it is known as the Death Cross, and is considered a sell point. The 200 moving average will drop the longer the 50 moving average stays near it's average. When the price for the 50 day moving average overtakes the 200 day moving average this signals a bullish trend is about to begin.
I didn't notice it had been discussed, my bad.
Tuesday then, forgot Monday was Labor day.
I don't want to start any rampant speculation or rumors however I would like to mention something I heard a few days ago from my younger brother whom I share my apartment with. I turned him on to Chemtura a number of months ago. He only has about 15k but managed to get them in the low .20's. The other day he told me that while visiting the Yahoo message board (crap!!!!) he noticed someone had posted something about Amfine Chemicals wanting to make a serious offer to Chemtura for it's PVC business. I think such a statement is probably BS, but you never know. Generally I wouldn't take notice of such information, but at this point in the game with Chemtura wanting to sell assets it bears notice, ever so small that notice may be.
Debt to equity ratio much higher than Chemtura. 1.46 vs .83 for chemtura. Debts are greater than assets.
I'm no chart expert but when I look at the charts I see us going up and down a little for the rest of the week. What I see for Monday is different. I see a swing to the upside of more than 10% IMO come beginning of next week.
How much of Chemtura's overall debt is attributed to their foreign subs?
Your absolutely right MM, thanks for reminding me of that fact.
Sorry to disappoint you I am not Utah. Sorry if I sound like that, not my intention.
I apologize to all for revisiting the commons topic, bad decision on my part. I got off track and appreciate Floyd and 345 reminding me of that. I will never address the subject again. I have no agenda, and only want to see everyone do well with this stock. Sorry for causing a stir!!!!!!!
I won't mention it again 345. I was just commenting on the great number of posts last night that had revisited this topic. Personally I am not much for speculation. The simple truth is that you need to watch this stock and be vigilant, if you start to feel uneasy get out.
jr, no as in the POR will not reveal this or no the shares won't get cancelled. I think the POR will give us much insight into the fate of the commons.
I realize you guys put the issue of commons being cancelled to bed early last night but I would like to make one last comment on the subject. On November 14th I believe the extension on the 120 day exclusivity period runs out for Chemtura. With Rogerson wanting to exit bankruptcy in March there is little or no chance that this period gets extended again. With this being the case the POR will get filed in November and on time. By definition the POR contains a "detailed description" of how Chemtura plans not only to exit bankruptcy, but how they "plan to pay back creditiors". Unless I am misunderstanding the purpose of the POR it will contain exactly what means of payment Chemtura intends to use to pay off their creditors. We all seem to be asking the same question, will the commons be intact when Chemtura exits bankruptcy in March? We won't have to wait that long, we'll have our answer in November. I know the numbers are not in our favor, however there is one statistic that bears some notice. From the information I have been able to gather it appears that in "almost all" the cases where commons were cancelled due to bankruptcy, the company made public their intention to cancel shares. The fact that Chemtura hasn't come out and said the commons are going to be cancelled 165 days into bankruptcy could be construed as confirmation that the shares will stay intact. Am I showing too much faith here?
Someone posted a question about the 2009 bond and what happens to the bond when it reaches face value. What does happen?
What happens if the price increases and exceeds face value and the market interest rate goes lower than the rate at which the bond was purchased? Can the bond be redeemed at a higher value?
An increase in the bond price reflects increased optimism in the company, but what are some of the other impacts of a higher bond price? Madclown and Millionaire do you guys know about these things?
That was reported on Aug. 14th. Most if not all of that has been covered already. Those short positions were probably taken up when we hit the previous high of .78. Might have been some new shorts at .84. If this thing continues to climb it will accelerate buying for those who "might have" shorted at .84. Once this thing hits .78 and perhaps closes above this level, I believe it will take off. If we open at .78 or above tommorrow watch those who may have shorted at .84 try to cover. IMO the .78 mark is the point at which the climb to $1 will hasten.
"SOA, a former subsidiary and spinoff of Monsanto (Agricultural equivalent of Goldman Sachs) exited bankruptcy a few years ago".
How did the common shareholders fare when they exited BK?
How is the chemical sector doing in general? Specialty chemical manufacturers make up 55% of the sector. If read that the sector is rebounding and turning around. Chemtura should start seeing drastic improvements in business? If Chemtura is profiting now, just think what will happen when the sector completely recovers!
I will keep any future posts related to Chemtura, thanks for the reminder.
I believe Congress capped the long term capital gains tax @ 28% through 2010 depending on what you are selling. Certain types of assets are taxed differently. I assume you have held since bankruptcy and not prior, so if you decide to sell on or before December 31st 2009 you will be taxed according to how much taxable income how report on your 1040. Most people will pay 15%. The most important factor though is your income tax bracket. The higher your income tax bracket, the more you're going to pay in capital gains tax. As a general rule, you pay capital gains tax at the same rate as income tax for all short-term investments. So if you're in the 10 percent income tax bracket, you'll pay 10 percent for all short-term capital gains. And if you're in the 35 percent income tax bracket, you'll pay 35 percent for all short-term capital gains.
Starting in 2008 and through 2010 taxpayers in the 15 percent income tax bracket or lower will pay 5 percent on long-term capital gains. Everyone else will pay a flat rate of 15 percent. Starting in the 2008 tax year, long-term rates are dropping to zero percent for taxpayers in the 15 percent income tax bracket or lower.
There are some exceptions for long-term capital gains rates. The long-term rate for collectibles is currently a flat 28 percent across all tax brackets. That's the same for small business stock held for more than five years. For real estate sales, the long-term capital gains tax is either 5 percent or 15 percent after any primary residence exclusions.
"I don't know if this helps or adds to the confusion".
Aren't we supposed to hear from Rogerson next Monday the 7th? Does he have something important to tell us?
While many believe that the long-term capital gain tax rate is a standard 15%, this is certainly not always the case. Your tax rate is dependant upon many individual factors such as your income-tax bracket, the type of investment sold, the length of time you held onto it, and date of sale. I believe long term capital gains max out at 28% through 2010.
Golden Cross getting closer, fanastic. Our long term MA becoming our new support. Things are looking good. By the way we have 55,000 after hours trades @ .68 for a .01 or .75% gain. Looks like we might open higher tommorrow.
The shorts might be the ones bringing this down, however they had better be careful about bringing the PPS down too much or some big investor might decide to jump in with a boat load of money and take advantage of them. If the shorts are involved in todays activity they need to be very careful about how low they are willing to bring this down. Some big investor might decide to induce a "short squeeze", thus forcing them to cover their positions prematurely. If this happens the PPS could suddenly spike and the shorts might not be able to cover all their positions in time. I don't think the PPS goes down too much further from here, maybe .60 or high .50's at most, then we see big volume again with a much higher share price.
Sounds like you enjoyed yourself. When we start seeing dollars from Chemtura perhaps you can get your own house and boat on the gulf and fish more often!
Look at the chart since going into bankruptcy, where is it going? It's going in an upward trend. There has been no evidence to suggest a downward trend is about to begin. How many times has this stock pulled back after big gains? Every ride has a few bumps on the way. We are seeing nothing new with this stock. We will probably see the same type of action tommorrow I imagine. The upward trend for this stock that the charts depict hasn't changed because of profit taking. Profit taking is envitable during an upward climb, it's actually necessary for the health of the stock. If something happened to signal a downward trend we would be seeing much higher volume. At most this stock may drop another 10-15%, but if it does it won't be long after that before it resumes it's climb upward. I'm not a chart guy, but I do believe the upward trend shown by the charts will continue.
Fridays gain is gone, how much of Thursdays gain are we going to give up? We closed on the 26th @ .53, and proceeded to gain 43% on Thursday and Friday. There's no way we retrace below .60 in my opinion. Actually I was anticipating another 15-18% gain before a retrace, however regardless of when I thought this retrace would begin, I'm not selling, because like I have already noted this selling IMO will be short lived.
Maybe we had some profit-seeking individuals with large amounts of cash at their disposal on Friday who started buying in order to drive up the share price in order to force short-sellers to cover their positions, thus driving up the price for themselves. These same people have decided to take some profit by selling off small blocks in an attempt to walk the price down to perhaps the low to mid .60's in order to add to their positions. I don't see this thing dropping below the .60 mark. If we continue to drop today I think the selling will end tommorrow. If we level off in the mid .60's at closing we could see a little more selling tommorrow. In either case I think the buying will resume by Wednesday some time IMO. I just thought I'd add my two cents as crazy as I may sound.
Thanks Manti! As I suspected I didn't think I'd find any recent info. There may have been some shorting going on last week, but if so those positions I believe will be covered soon. We may see the MM's orchestrate a low volume takedown for the next few days, however with the August MOR looming I don't believe it will last much longer than a few days, if indeed that's what's happening!
That's for the help Manti and Oleboy. That 63% increase reflects old positions. Those positions would have already been covered. Do you have any figures for the most recent short interest? I've looked in a number of places and haven't found anything, maybe you guys can point me in the right direction?
Doesn't appear that this stock was heavily shorted? Where are you getting your figures from?