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I agree with this post you made Ash111.
"TVIX might see 10+ the coming days,if not at open.imo"
Lets go through a few of the items on the check list.
Oil has ran up $6 dollars in a week giving that much more pain when we see the bottom, which I believe we haven't even come close to seeing yet and still we're over $9.
The Fed seems Hawkish and not willing to change their tightening position for quite some time.
The dollar is stronger than ever and is going to get stronger.
China has lost somewhere around %20 of their markets in the last few weeks alone and all of the indices are ignoring that at this time, which won't last much longer.
Tomorrow is one more pixxi stick being pulled out of the economic mountain getting ready to crumble.
I think your on the wrong side of this right now. JMO!
Learner.
I would think Putin's getting a little upset at the ruble dollar exchange rate at 77.85 to 1. If oil really does stay at these levels for a long time like some are speculating many countries are going to be in trouble.
I was a little suprised to see oil go up after inventories showed an almost 3 million barrel increase. Not surprised to hear the Fed pretty much stayed on track.
I have a feeling I should of added today at the $9 area. Oh well, still holding base shares.
Both are a mistake in hindsight. One of the Fed chair's said a week ago or so that QE didn't work and admitted that the Fed front loaded large corporations thinking that would stimulate inflation and employment, but that didn't happen. I think what it really did was give them more cash to buy back there own stocks and pay ceo's huge bonus's. He also went on the say that even though it didn't work they have to do something and that's the only thing in the bag they will have after pulling back the last rate hike and perhaps going into negative rates. Sad, but that's where we're at.
All I'm hearing from the talking heads is the Fed's made a huge mistake raising rates. Which they did, but if the Fed comes out with anything but we made a mistake and we're going to lower rates down 25 basis points in March and consider QE the talking heads aren't going to like it and most likely the markets won't either. Also I don't think the Fed's will admit a mistake this soon after the first rate hike. We'll see.
That would really be somethink if it gets into the $26 range tomorrow and closed there. Dought if we see TVIX at $13+ range there, but who knows.
Oil is still falling. Just wait until there's no where to store it. Oil should of never ran up late last week.
I'm on a golf trip the rest of the week so I won't be able to keep a close eye on this. Hope this action keeps up. Still holding 3k.
Good luck all! Leaner
Yes! Green! Well for a second. I thought we'd give up most of Fridays gains this morning. Glad to see TVIX hold up as well as it is right now. Good luck.
Nymex oil Down over 2% right now trading $28.80 right now. Iran adding at least 500,000 barrels to the glut. This just might get very ugly for the oil sellers.
I was surprised to not see a chart on tvix yesterday.
This is not a flash crash. Finally we correct!
And there's no code in there!
Thanks Gold. Pulling the cork on Patron tonight and leaving the cap on the Jameson.
I think the big key now is if/when all of the on shore and off shore oil storage vessels become full and oil has to go direct to the market. More and more refineries are going off line for maintenance so the chance of this happening is getting stronger everyday.
I agree with that slow motion crash. The chill just went to the spine and the foot going for the brake peddle and mentally thinking this is going to hurt.
I love Art Cashin's honesty. Where most talking heads paint a rosie picture, he tells it how it is.
I love your analogies Gold!
It does look like he's laying back down. For the deep sleep this time.
Learner09 PowerBall Numbers for Tonight's Drawing
05 28 43 60 69 qp pb 10
11 20 31 40 63 qp pb 14
03 24 42 57 66 qp pb 22
12 20 35 50 66 qp pb 26
02 22 23 30 55 qp pb 08
04 22 38 54 63 qp pb 11
10 16 32 62 68 qp pb 26
08 43 50 54 59 qp pb 17
10 13 17 46 52 qp pb 11
07 09 11 19 31 qp pb 25
Of course only the followers prior to winning get the million dollars. lol Good luck!
Thanks. I appreciate your opinion. I think a lot depends on how the VIX gets there weather it jumps fast or creeps up.
Where would you guess TVIX would be if the VIX hit say 80 to 90 again?
There's a good chance we could see another black Monday again this monday if China tanks Sunday night. With our markets closing close to the lows of the day of Friday could be a little telling as to the start of the market's next week.
I have a feeling that there's a good chance the VIX is going to hold in a channel between 23 and say 30 for some period of time. The market trickles off little by little most days and in this scenario $13 would be in the dust rather quickly for TVIX. We may be in uncharted territory for how TVIX is going to react very soon.
Good luck all.
If I win I'll give you, Gold, and all his board followers a mil to. Good luck!
What does that mean VC? You think $11 to $12 is the top.
I think this seems very different than August. We have the rate hike, China lifted the circuit breaker so if their government doesn't intervein thay might really crash hard in one day, Oil is definitely in the dirt, (no pun intended lol), Billions in defaults are basically inevitable since oils been this low so long.
No quick jump this time. It recovered as fast as it fell in August. I don't think thats going to be the case this time. Sure feels like August lows will be breached this time.
My bet is the S and P doesn't hold the 1867 level after oil drops to a 2 handle next week and $9 TVIX will look like a bargain.
Shanghai started the session up 2 percent and is now down 2 percent and dropping. Could get ugly tonight with no stopping it.
VIX is up good now and trading in a higher channel.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=VX&p=m5 and trading in a higher channel.
I meant to say Art is one of the only msnbc guys I respect what he says. The market fall might not be as slow as you think. Every time I get excited here I end up getting my dick in the dirt, but I know one day I will be able to stand proud and erect holding my TVIX shares waiting with a chuck to buy XIV.
So good luck to all no matter how you play it, Learner.
I was listening to one of the only msmbc guy's Art Cashing on I believe Monday and he believes 1900 is coming and Sept. lows is most likely going to be hit and support this time might not hold up there this time. Will see.
I just looked at that just a minute ago also. I agree. Althogh it has gone up over .5 point in one jump. Might take a little time to digest.
Oil hit 32 handle. Tomorrow is going to rocket for TVIX!
China just tripped second circuit breaker and is now closed for the rest of the session. Wow.
Chinese circuit breakers triggered again. I posted a china market nose dive Tuesday night and couldn't type fast enough as it went down over 3 % and almost as soon as I posted it China dumped 20 billion into the market to stop it and it went green. I thought how unbelievable. Guess tonight there going to let it go. Will see.
Shanghai's tanking. The ride begins.
Oil is not holding up. Hope everyone has their tickets.
Learner.
China suspended a falling knife today. If the knife continues to fall into another suspended market tonight and oil retraces we will see huge gains here tomorrow and probably beyond.
Good luck all.
I agree.
Sorry, I meant Iran, but you knew what I meant.
I'm leaning the other way on oil than you. At least for the next 6 months to a year. What I'm hearing is with the sanctions lifted for Iraq, it's production will make up for any shortfall in supply. Will see. jmo.