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I believe these sorts of broken logic patterns can reasonably be believed to always be harbored by common shareholders. Is it bad logic and or wrong? Then people who cannot think straight will support it. Who are they in this instance? Common shareholders. Why? Because common shareholders technically have no security in a vanilla equity restructuring
I promote the end of conservatorship
I am really struggling to read this — i am sorry but i just will have to ask kthompson or someone else to put up a response to this — in the meanwhile i wish you the best
simple questions with simple answers is the socratic method, but you can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink
future lawsuits on what basis.
i give up. i generally consider the statute of limitations to apply to anything moving forward as long as the spspa face and liq pref are valid it is at treasury's discretion on how to monetize them.
Further lawsuits, from whom, for what?
Point me to where common shareholders are part of pending litigation that would block spspa conversion and why.
Is spspa’s face value and liq pref valid?
If not, why not. Where is the litigation challenging it?
If yes, then why give it away.
You assume they just ignore the face value and the liq pref of their spspa.
I dont make that assumption. That is the difference
"f seeing a significantly larger paying from the trial settlement thanks to the interest payment"
your definition of "significantly larger" is my definition of insigificant --- unless you're assuming in your mental model that the damages model gets appealed and reliance damages are permitted in this case.
i hold no commons. i generally see them as having no intrinsic value.
i am not selling freddies for fannies.
i'm mostly freddie mac preferreds.
i generally see owning commons as an indicator of not understanding the mechanics or priorities of how this equity restructuring can be expected to play through.
to be completely oblivious to the ominous continuing to balloon spspa liq pref.. is a privilege afforded to common shareholders
it's like walking around outside like it's a calm sunny day when i look outside and see it is a tornado / hurricane conditions
It has to do with the jps place in the capital structure which is higher priority than commons and has anti-dilution provisions.
The common shares in my view given the cbo report are not necessarily vanquished. The spspa face value was paid, not the liq pref — so my view is retaining earnings since 2019 may actually be decreasing the odds of them being completely destroyed in a spspa monetization
nah.
we aren't betting on a legal outcome buying this.
the main thing we are buying here is FNMA hitting 2.5% net worth absent SPSPA capital requirements in 2025 which --- if you ask me --- is another dimension of ... why is the government holding a publicly traded company hostage in conservatorship when if it restructured its equity they could legally exit conservatorship... since SPSPA basically makes a big hole in their balance sheet.
the litigation --- who gives a crap.. the current damages model is bust. the main value there is in appealing the damages model and getting in an actual breach of contracts damages model. i believe reliance damages were excluded using lamberth is a dirtbag reasoning --- i think that this only gets worse for the government if they don't settle.
congrats on your 200K+ FNMAT/S shares. $5M+ par value!
i just wanted to say how much i appreciated your thread here CNorris2.
Noted. Thoughts on timing? Biden admin has been talking housing for the first time this past month with Lael Brainard publicly speaking, promoting Daniel Hornung, Sandra Thompson and Wally Adeyamo meeting with local mayors --- these sort of sitins based on prior Treasury releases are designed to drive admin action. It's all there black and white.
ah makes sense. this board is pretty polarizing
I see you are trying to have an intelligent conversation with catbirdseat. Good luck. Jeff does not understand how to read very well and is more likely to misinterpret something successfully than interpret it correctly.
That is to say whenever he posts about an interpretation of words that he has analyzed it is my observation that he undermines the utility of the english language and lacks the conversational ability of a third grader or people who have tried to help him would have gotten through to him by now.
Long story short lost cause, completely luck and faith dependent. God speed. Bless his heart. Hope for the best. Hope commons dont get cut up and turned to chopped liver dog food for cannon fodder at the expense of spspa conversion
The restructuring aspect of the equity of these companies is at the hands of the administration that does it. Which right now is biden. If trump gets elected he 100% for sure will end the conservatorships if biden hasnt already
Politics is actual legitimately part of the investment thesis here
The allocation plan is cart before horse meaningless time buying by the govt to keep it in lamberths court a while longer
Thats right. Berkowitz mostly sold out. Someone else owns his warchest of jps now
You can keep your shares. The concern we have for your shares is dilution risk
There are ways to win this were the government has a good outcome without letting commom have a good outcome where the government eats common shareholders for itself
It is coming sooner than you think
You have lost touch with reality. Wishing you good luck because that is what you need
Continued retention of earnings is the main one i watch
Retweet this story widely. Treasury is engaged!!
Treasury is engaged! $fnma #fanniegate https://t.co/Zrq6uozU8M
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) December 12, 2023
What is interesting to me is that the cbo report uses the spspa face value and not the spspa liq pref in its restructuring analysis for getting paid back. It then goes to show that as the companies retain more earnings and as their equity is worth more— there are restructure recap and release scenarios where the warrants have value after the spspa is paid off at face
Your observations are based on lies that you continue to propogate. Good luck. No one should listen to you.
There is still the rop lawsuit and the lamberth appeal of damages model
Yeah. Maybe you can educate him on juniors
Yup. That is the mechanics. Jps have to 2/3 vote to convert to commons. At this point receivership doesnt even convert them. It just zeroes everyone out and treasury takes everything.
I think the $100b they have in net worth takes receivership off the table. All that is left is recap and release
Expand to 18 months. Different story
The government does not benefit from their retained earnings. Its value of the spspa is pretty much maxxed. At this point the main value in recap and release is locking in the current admins policy. Then there is money. The housingwire article from today gives a lot of good reasons and it resonates with lael brainards speech today. This is the first time lael has publicly talked housing. That in itself is notable
Since the scotus ruling makes fhfa a political appointee he is pro recap and release end the conservatorship once he figured it out. Took a year or two. But now with all their earnings — it is not a bridge too far
Hope you are doing okay
Nice gobble gobble more jps
You do not know what you are talking about. Exhibit a
lol. you guys are crazy but yes
the only way to convert jps is with the consent of the jps.
jps have anti dilution protection, which is why they are not technically worthless and in fact technically worth face value in a recap and release whereas commons in theory only have value if the enterprises are worth more than the spspa
which... tough to say there.
You are approaching escape velocity in your nonsensical recursive logic. Zoom zoom. Enjoy the ride. I remember some posts a while back where you had seemed to figure out that jps were safer than common. Not sure what happened since then to your thought patterns
Sounds like you are clueless
the court of federal claims has ruled that what the government has done here is not a taking.
good try, i think so
the government stopped taking money from the gses in september 2019.
and there have been lawsuits to get the government to stop taking their money
apa claims and takings claims
the legislative branch + judicial branch + executive branch.. all determined that theyc an do whatever they want
Guys who own these pieces don’t care abt a few dimes, they are sitting in par paper at some point that’s taken years to accumulate