This is 'No Country For Old Puts.',,,,Refer to the post i wrote yesterday which i'm answering to with this one.

LOL; you make me glad i'm me !!/EOM.

'options1229' Seasonal for what year ?? Is it typical in the first year of a bull mkt to have a lousy sept-oct ?? I think not. The only down month in 2003 after feb was august. Sept was a strong white candle and oct went even a little higher. 'CHI 2' thought july this year would be a stinker and i argued against that based on 2003 as well. July was a barnburner then and also now. So i don't know. But in the first year of a bull mkt those dips get bought back pretty fast seems to me. Lots of shorts panic to reverse themselves and lots of 'missouts' panic to get in on any good drops in year-one. IMHO. Just look at today for example after what happened yesterday.

YAY !!, Opposite of last night; 3:15 a.m.edt; Dow futes UP 58; S/P UP 7.60; Naz 100 up 12; Paris up 32;London UP 30; Dax Up 29; Nikkei UP 16; H Kong UP 180; Gold UP; Oil UP; u.s. dollar DOWN (tanks Gott in Himmel.) LOL. Here's hoping it doesn't fade out. Grrrrrrr....HSBC just upgraded to buy by GS. G'nite all. Pills to take to knock me out. Gotta go. Sleep pill and Lorezepam dreams await. Not like the old days where 15 minute of tokeing would do. Or just drop a tab of acid. Damm. Not my world anymore.

Update;;4:45a.m.; Dow futes now down 161; Dax dn 100. Someone should tell (I'M DEAD SERIOUS,) Larry Kudlow to get freakin lost with his ''king dollar'' CRAP. Every time the dollar index rallies the stock mkts tank. Every time the dollar index tanks the stock mkts soar. PROOF.??? Just put a 2-year u.s. dollar index chart against a 2-year dow30 or s&p. You'll be AMAZED. S/P 666== Dollar index==high eighties. S&P 1000; dollar index backto ,80. If King Dollar played out like idiot Kramer wants; we'd have a $1.00 par and a 5000 dow.

4:14 a.m. edt; Dow futes down 140, S/P down 20; nikkei dn over 300; hong kong dn over 800; all europe down from 1.20% to 1.60%; Oil dn over a buck etc etc. SHEESH !!!! From ''joblow'' Dec 20, 2000 (y2k) on Raging Bull QQQ board; ''The time has come, the day draweth near; let not the buyer rejoice nor the seller mourn, for the wrath is on all of the multitude thereof.'' (Ezekial 7:12.) ''Goodnight and Goodluck'' (to us all.) (Edward R. Murrow.)

THX'anon'After 46 mkt yrs i'm FINLY Lrnin/LOL/eom.

The ONLY red month in 2003 was August after the jan-feb 2003 bottom. And MERELY an spx 50-point swing at that. EVERY other month was white candles including jan of 2004. For those of you looking for the ''last chance to get in correction,'' we already had it. It's over. It's gone. On CHI2's weeklies it's called 'large wave 2.' Woe to those who take the cnbc bears seriously. Dennis Kneal and Cramer are right ALL ALONG and all the bears are wasted upon the pile of dung heap formed by the earlier shorts. The first 6 months of 2004 was a bit tough for bulls. Spx From 1160 in feb to 1060 in july. But by november of 2004 spx was 1220. Next year ended 1300 and by 2006 ended at almost 1450. Good Luck All. All the monthly T/A is now ''go'' IMHO.

T/Y; Well done!! old cHI2 chap. Pip-Pip etc/EOM

CHI; a question regarding 'anon's' seasonal post that i'm responding to. Could it be that this whole 1,2,3,-waves so far is only part of 'large' 1 up ?? And that in the sept/oct could be wave 4 from say spx 1100-1200 down to 'whatever' with a wave-5 to finish 'upleg-1' around yearend ?? In bull or bear mkts are usually 3 large uplegs or downlegs if bear. Waves 1,3, and 5. I'm still of the assumption that this is a 2003-2007 thingy. Am i offbase about the whole cyclical bull thing ??? NOT expecting an immed reply 'cause i know you get busy during mkt hours. TIA. Bob.

O/T 'Anon;' No waiting for 'immediate.' You go right to the top. My open heart surg took 8-months from discovery and confirmation of what was needed, but had i got noticably worse during that time i would have been taken right in. Procedures ?? Yes we go to the U.S. for some, but pretty rare. Most are still covered by our govmnt in any event. But people come from u.s. and all over the world to Canada for specialised stuff like our burn clinics and kids hospitals. Also as a senior i now get all govmnt paid prescrips for 100 bucks a year. All expensive stuff like lipitor, cumadin, avapro, metropol, etc. The only people that go broke up here on health care is usually if they or their kids have something so rare that the meds cost like $10000 or 20,000 a month. Then they need help from charitable orgs.

CHI; I didn't realise i had a mailbox till now. I got your message re POT which was NOT at all necessary. I call YOU 'sir' and no 'sorry' from you NEVER necessary. Much T/Y for EVERYTHING. I only dissapeared for a while because of c/t scans etc that led to my carotidectomy because of a small stroke i suffered. All ok now. Nice inverse H&S neckline breakout from the 2-month POT bottom. I'm 'doing' it as well as RIMM, SU, CNQ. (Out-of-money monthly put selling.)

Thanks ''anon'' and for mentioning me too!! eom.

Yeah we used to do it on RB all the time back in the late '90's when naz was flying and we were all happy and i was on many dot com boards as ''oldpro.'' On SI you yelled GRUB when you nail a big round number. I never did know what GRUB meant.

Health Care in Canada IS TO LOVE IT. Examples;;; We up here are the most perfect blend of Socialism and Capitalism. What most American's don't get is that Socialism is NOT Communism. Most Americans think they are because some Communist counties have the word socialist in their name such as the former USSR; the SS was Soviet Socialist. 99% of people up here pay next to nothing for great (and very expensive) health care and i'll use myself as example. By the way; your republicans lie to you all the time about other countries health care. Even Cuba has a better one as anyone who's seen Michael Moore's documentery SICKO can attest to. I heard an R senator on cnn last week say that Canadian doctors arent even allowed to do cataract surgury unless impending blindness is imminent. Total BS. I'm now 67 and have had it done; plus double bypass open heart surgery plus 2 new heart valves and a carotid artery plaqe removal operation requiring much hospital cost, transfusions, one month in hospital on antibiotics, etc etc at ZERO cost to me. All the x-rays; ct scans, and mri's ZERO cost. Less than one percent of the populaion will go broke up here on health care and NOBODY gets refused.

CHI; those are post ##'s. 40,000 and now he/she'll try for the 50,000 whenever it comes up. Some do that on almost all boards. S/I and Canada's Stockhouse too.

''anon'' 2003-2007 is a perfect example of a cyclical bull within a secular bear. You won't see hardly any serious pullbacks there over the whole 4 bull years. Go look. Also Jack is probably a week old on those charts. The monthly spx macd ON cHIcHI'S chart is now on the zero line right now and will cross up any day now. you will find it on this board at post number 38169 and it can be refreshed at any time as it's a 'realtime' chart. The etf for exactly those stocks (which are their biggest holdings amongst deere, syngenta, and many more ag companies is MOO on nyse and COW in Toronto. Both are single leverage. You have a symbol 'cow' down there, but it's not the one. If you're in The States, buy MOO.

'anon' You're missing the point of the crossups. I'm using 2003 as the model but other bull starts in years past have done the same. IF, I REPEAT IF i'm right, i can see normal bull mkt corrections over the next 3-4 years without much serious ones. I think we've entered the 'buy the dips and hold tight' phase of an early typical cyclical 4-year bull like 2003-2007 was. That's the point of the monthly crossups on stos and macd. Retest the lows or anywhere near them is now totally off the table IMHO. Gawd i hope i'm right. lol. Go to '321gold.com' and download Jack Chan's 'global indexes' piece that he posted today. Ten year charts of almost all global mkts with Jack's comments. Well worth seeing how accurate this guy has been in the past AND WHY. It's all one one page.

Monthly spx macd at the zero line right now and about to cross to the upside probably tomorrow just like it did in the 2003 takeoff.

Sector switching to premium laggards ?? Are the funds getting gunshy about holding the highflyers from march-april ?? Is it new or sideline money coming in but scared to chase?? Look at the big opening upside gaps on the MOO stocks, especially the ferts. POT-CF-AGU-MOS etc are flying since upside gapping on the open. Here's hoping, because i don't want to chase either.

'anon,' Once the monthly spx macd confirms you, (very soon i think,) I'll be ALL IN for a 3 to 4-year hold with multi-sectors of double-leverage etf's and some singles too like MOO. ( COW up here in Canada on the TSX. Same holdings.) Good luck to you and thanks again. In a longer term uptrend with only normal corrections along the way, the double leverage ones perform superbly. Only if you have bad corrections or a sideways market do they underperform. (the double ones. I have no experience with the triple ones, nor will i.)

Thanks 'anon.10' I never thought of tracking that. GOOD WORK.!!!

That monthly 10-year chart of CHI'S that i refered to is post number 38169 showing 3 yellow charts spx monthly, weekly, daily. First one down is that VERY important 10-year monthly and it's MACD that i keep refering to.

2003-2007 is STILL my model. Remember when i said that July would probably blow the doors off based on the 2003 bottom recovery ?? I also said wave 2 going soon to big-wave-3 a month or so ago. Now i'm only waiting for CHI'S monthly 10-year SPX monthly chart for the monthly MACD to cross above the zero line. Almost there right now. (like it did back in 2003 and other end-of-bear years.) That will be IMO the final key/confirmation of the new cyclical 4-year bull to 2013.

''Myself''...Your third chart down sure makes a good case for big support 875-ish. Thanks for those.

Based on MANY past bear mkt recoveries, notably 1974's bottom into 1975, and 2002's bottom into 2003 amongst many similar others; IMHO Bear 12345 was finished in March and we are now in wave 2 correction of a typical 4 year 5-wave cyclical bull. Hope i'm right and you're wrong; LOL. (otherwise i'm toast.) Next up (if i'm right,) will be the big-long-strong multi-year 3. (All wave 3's up or down are the longest and stongest of the 5-waves.

Thanks; Good points all. eom.

CHI; last night on ''fast money'' and last monday i think too, he made a big case for going short POT. He even said he was shorting more yesterday as it went down. What he didn't count on which I THINK has maybe happened is a whole bunch of new contracts signed up with Canpotex re Asia, India, Brazil, etc. Canpotex represents the distribution arm for POT; MOS; and AGU. Notice in such a terrible mkt how all 3 of those are up strongly today. Not so much the etf MOO, but just the 3 main FERT stocks. 'Something's' going on for sure. Even more bad news from K&S overseas is being totally ignored. Today they pushed off the potash recovery from 2010 to 2011. Yet our 3 ferts are soaring ???

Gartman getting KILLED on his big POT short; EOM.

Re Jack Chan;== Important !!!... Click on the 321gold link at the bottom of that post. Then click on the ''simply profits.org'' link at the top of Chan's post. Then click ''about us.'' Go to the bottom of that page and click on ''sample global indices updates.'' All of the charts are 10-year monthly charts. Note on a lot of them how he could tell a bull market starting or a bear mkt starting just by the monthly MACD crosses ALONE.!!!!!!!!

I think a good comparative look at previous 'first-year-after-bear-mkt-bottoms' would be relative to today's mkt. Like i said in my early posts here i am old, tired, and 'computer stupid' and don't know how to bring up and post old charts. I'm using 2002-2003 at present thanks to CHI's 10-year monthly S&P chart, but i wonder if 1969-70, 1974-75, early eighties; 1988, early nineties . would be helpful. Much T.I.A if anyone can do it. I'm going on the assumption that this is the first year of a new cyclical bull and would like to see how some past ones played out. Once you get the trend right then even seasonality doesn't seem to matter much. My heyday was naz trading in the nineties. And the funny thing was that i made a ton of dough just on the summer recovery from the year 2000 march crash. If memory serves naz went from 5100 to almost 3000 in march, then 5-months later was back over 4000 or maybe even 4500 again before finally heading to the 2002 lows.

July of 2003 was literally LAST CHANCE TO BUY before the big 4-year bull took off. If you missed July you missed buying 950-1000 on the S&P. At yearend was 1150. Two years later was 1300 on its way to 1500.

EXACTLY; but I'll be THE FIRST to call a 'just beginning' of multi-year major ''wave-3'' to perhaps S&P 1200 by 2010-11 if one were to gamble on getting long right now. In Canada i took that gamble and are now long all of the 2-times-bull derivatives. HXU-HFU-HEU-HMU. (TSE itself; Financials, energy; and mining. (plus of course POT.) Good Luck All. My first bear was in the late 60's. I've been through all of them since then. This is NO DIFFERENT. Just different reasons is all.

Thanks George re the potash post. Being up here in Canada i'm privy to all of that and they're absolutely right. I'd go with the Friedland deal on 'Potash-One' before the others. Market-wise i'm thinking we might (sress ''might,'') be at the end of ''big-wave 2'' and at the beginning of multi-year upleg ''big-wave-3,'' the longest and strongest of all the waves. (like 2003 through 2007.) If the S&P can convincingly cross 950 AND the monthly dow MACD crosses up through it's zero line that'll be all i need to convince me. Bob.

CHI; your 50% has 834. Sounds/ looks right to me.

Chi; re your question; somewhere between S&P 800 and 850 and then begins ''big wave 3'' (YAY !!!) That's why when they
'put' pot to me around $100 u.s.. i'll keep it and start a call-write program. NEVER miss a ''big wave 3/'' from the long side, NEVER. !!!

IMHO 'Big-wave-2' (of this cyclical-bull-within-a-secular-bear) is well underway plus the ongoing construction of the right shoulder of an inverse H&S with the March low being the head. That's what your great weekly S&P chart is showing me Chi. Question is; how long until it completes and how low does it go ??? (assuming i'm right which of course i might not be.)

CHI; Much thx for this board and all your hard work and honesty. I'm only a 'freebee' here and left a couple of posts late last night for any comment. MUCH T.I.A; Bob. I can't post too much for medical reasons so probably 3 a day is too much anyway; LOL. Thanks again for a great job.

A VERY reportant reminder to my previous post. Had one waited through the 2002-03 bottoms in cash and doing nothing, just waiting for that monthly macd zero line to be crossed and maintained for 2-months, a lot of whiplash-grief would have been saved. It was only AFTER the 2003 bottom that the monthly MACD crossed above the zero line and not before, and although one missed the bottom, one did NOT miss 4-YEARS of RIM; GOOG; GS; AMZN; RIMM; AGU; MOS. POT; GS; etc etc doubles, triples, quadruples all.(or hugely much-much more using options.) WAIT FOR IT. Also give it a few months above the zero line before doing anything. You won't miss out that much. You'll still be just at the beginning of the 'meat' of the next bull.

Check the super-tight b-bands on POT. I've been a year-long lurker here and i want very much to thank all of you (and of course ESPECIALLY CHICHI,) for a top-notch board. I live 60-miles north of Toronto, am a 'senior' with 35 years of market experience, and only trade options, mostly selling out-of-money puts and letting them expire worthless which of course is a bullish call on a stock. Right now i'm sold-uncovered on july POT puts. If i ever have stock 'put' to me, i then start writing calls. CHI !!! (and all.) Go to your 3-chart S&P page where the first one is a 10-year monthly, followed by a weekly then a daily. Pay close attention to the monthly's MACD. Compare it to the coming off of the bottom back in 2003. That's when Jack Chan made his big bull call which lasted until it crossed back down in 2007 when he told all his followers to sell out. I fully agree we're in ''big 1'' of a new bull, but i want to see when that monthly macd can cross above the zero line and stay above it for a few months. If you want to follow up on the same chart on Chan's site, go to Jack Chan Archives .com. I am unable to do links; am terribly computer-stupid; sorry. Thanks again all and goodnight. Remember to check those really pinched b-bands on POT. Good Luck All. !!!