Market direction

Fed, to answer the second part of your question...
It's really hard to predict the market and metals going forward. At least for me..

It looks like Silver wants to hit 30-32, but we are also seeing some support on the dollar and a possible dollar rally.

I'd be cautions in the markets until this proves out.

I think the markets will either

1) Continue consolidation and have modest pullbacks; retesting 11200 area before continuing a breakout. This would form a cup and handle type pattern from April.

2) If tomorrow and the rest of the week is strong, it could continue a rally from here. But it looks like alot of weakness today, signaling at least some downside. Have to wait and see as I am curious.

3) If 11200 is broken, watch for more significant downside. It's hard to imagine the markets crashing with QE II in place; but that doesn't mean they won't.

I won't say which option I think is going to happen. With QE II I'm thinking Option 1, but I don't now.

-- I also got hit with some shorts, I was buying some PUTS on the market. You are correct. We had over a 20% rally in metals. If it wasn't for the fed games, we would have had a 20% crash in the stock price instead. In retrospect this was somewhat obvious once silver broke out 18. WE should have stopped shorting and got on the inflation bandwagon.

As for the moon, notice that we are at a new moon high, right at the same time as the dollar rebound and metals coming down. So I would watch it carefully;

Here's another good tip; The Ickimoku Clouds provide a VERY good indication of when a stock has momentum left and what it's downside targets are. If a stock is above the cloud, don't expect major downside; only corrections. When the Market and every stock breaks the cloud, like it did in 2008 all at the same time, THEN short cause its going to bleed from then on.

Ickimoku Cloud

Pull up stockcharts.com
Choose Ickimoku Cloud from the indicator.
Turn the other overlays off for now, so they are not confusing.

Notice how the price is testing the top of the cloud. Since the cloud is thick, it will likely not break the cloud until it thins out in a couple of weeks. It may either push against the top of the cloud, or even retest the bottom of the cloud (a high probability) before it goes for a breakout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
The Ickimoku Chart gives you multiple indicators all in one.

1) The cloud itself represents whether the stock is bearish or bullish long term. You use it similar to how you would use the 200 MA.

The advantage of the cloud is that it shows support and resistance as a band instead of as a line.

2) The blue and red lines are moving averages. When the blue line (fast) crosses the red line (slow) it is a buy.

If a bullish cross happens below the cloud it is a weak bullish signal, indicating the stock may still be in a down turn but a bullish corrective wave is in play.

If a bullish cross happens in the middle of the cloud, it is an intermediate buy signal.

If a bullish cross happens over the cloud it is a strong buy.

This is similar to how MACD crossovers work.

3) The green line is the momentum line. If the green line is above price it means the stock still has momentum.

**4) Thick clouds provide more resistance then thin clouds. The Ickimoku Cloud can often predict with good accuracy WHEN a breakout is likely. If the cloud is thin, it means that the support/resistance is weak. If it is challenged it has a strong likelihood of breaking.

Heartbeat away, fed?

Not so fast. I see some consolidation in the cloud. I would guess there are approximately 1,411,200 heart beats away before a terrific breakout.

That is approximately 14 days, estimating 70 bpm... assuming you can stay calm :)

$1.60

I'm happy that ITRO's stock is starting to really firm up.

Fed: You have to admit it!

You have to admit, you were wrong and inpatient about a couple of things

1) in hind-site I think the 1:1000 was the right move. Imagine if they had done a 1:100. The stock would only be .16; We can always do another forward split later if they want to loosen it up a little.


2) The stock price has stabilized nicely, entered into a nice positive rebound into the cloud; I think we can all see it breaking $2-$2.20 from here; Once that happens it will look attractive again and start attracting even more new buyers

3) ITRO is going to be scene as the last stop on the silver train. Silver and miners first, and then when ITRO catches on it will get a big time readjustment

3) Whitney is brilliant.

AgNu, - Any dips coming?

Do you see silver taking another dip or do you think it's going to run straight to 30-32 range?

Money Supply, Lending

I think buy buying bonds, they are keeping rates low; for the people who qualify. I think the fed may be saying, don't just lend to anyone or you will have the same mess again.

So they want the banks to lend with some discretion this time.

Unfortunately, even good solid people got hurt. Looking at a persons credit score doesn't mean anything anymore because anyone who tried to do a loan mod had their credit score screwed up.

Reverse merger is like free advertising

One nice side-effect about this reverse merger is it will make ITRO visible to a whole lot more people. All the employees of the other company will look at ITRO and tell their freinds, etc.

FInially we got a good close with good volume. All the stuff I said yesterday, before I retracted it.. It still stands.

Good close into the cloud. I feel really really good about ITRO for the first time in a long time.

Confused;

Yesterday we had the stock up to 1.55 on only the first 1000 shares traded.
Now we have 8000 shares traded and we are only up to $1.35.

Why?

Fed-fert and silver

Haven't a few people come out and say it's semi-dependent. It sounds like it can be done seperately but that its still more efficient to do it together.

They are not completely separate processes, but the silver extraction is one of the phases.

I'm guessing no one is going to put the exact work-flow or receipt on the message board.

Reading between the lines, I think that should answer the question.

Did I post too soon?

I think we need a close at 1.50> to confirm my last two posts :(
sorry;

Weekly Chart...

Weekly chart is also showing great potential for upside in Dec/Jan. A break of $2.50 is possible.

That would be sweet!

Chart is finally looking good.


The chart is finally setup to make a bullish move.
Stochs are reset and ready to run...
RSI nicely pierced 50;
We are now in the middle of the cloud;

With this setup we could get a run up to $1.70; and will probably stay range bound between 1.40 and $1.70 until Nov 22nd. Then we will likely consolidate tight around $1.55 - 1.60 and then we can break out to hte upside in early Dec and we will be free... and ITRO can fly like a bird.

Once we get over $2.20 I think everyone will be alot happier

It's been a while since the chart ready.

Was there news today or something?

Nice gap up to $1.55

don't quote me on this...

but putting together a couple of the old press releases, I seem to remember something about the silver production being upstream from the fertizlier production. The silver can be made somewhat independently of the ferilizer, but I beleive one of the end-products that goes into the fertilizer comes out of that process also, and it has some kind of shelf-life, so its preferable to do them together, but not 100% required.

Again, I'm going by my memory and its 12:30 am here, does anyone else remember anything like that or am I just mixed up?

Great press release

Fed, I dunno what you are talking about. This was a great PR. Oct 2010 sounds like it will be substantially better then 2009. That should be enough to attract new investors.

If they are going to invest, its easy enough to look at the last few press releases and see what last years numbers were.


ITRO will attract plenty of new blood as their revenues rise. Lets just be happy that WE got a great press release.

I bet u probably hurt Whits feelings this time. He worked hard to make a good one for you.

Why $1.45?

The same reason some guy got 1000 oz silver bar for 18K or whatever.

inflation/deflation;

Fed u pretty much nailed what I think.
We still have alot of deflationary risk; but it could easily go either way. I am just going to accumulate physical silver for the next 2 years; If we get deflation; then I will buy more metals at cheap prices and be ready. If we continue with more inflation and pull out of deflation then I will just aquire more on the way up.

I am kind of thinking we will have some 'deflationary spurts' but the fed will keep offsetting it now.

I think we are due for some kind of pullback to let the air out a little but then we will continue again; but they may just let the deflation take hold for a while too at some point.

be preapred for anything

Hi PinkPennies;

ITRO has done a 1:1000 reverse stock split a few months back. This significantly tightened up the stock which should allow for greater upside in the future.

The stock is still trading around fair market value for current revenues; ITRO has made huge strategic advancements, including

10x increase in silver extraction;
100x increase I believe for next year
ITRO owns 80% of the subsidiary for Auric which has major mining claims in Neveda.

This is a great time to aquire ITRO; If these developments materialize into revenue, ITRO will be grossly undervaled and it should drive the stock up to at least $10/share. If the mining claims really pan out; $50 is not impossible.

Projections...

I know this is just conjecture; but how long do you think silver will stay under $30-35 an oz.

Do you think we will see another dip before a rise.

I'm hoping I have another year or two to accumulate before it skyrockets; but that is looking more and more unlikely every day.

Still, potential for correction around $26;

ITRO Silver;

Didn't Itronics used to have a silver bar that said 'Itronics' on it; Maybe I am imagining that. It looks like now they have the Neveda 2008 bars.

Ok, I have set my target for silver accumulation:

First target: $10,000 - I figure this is a minimum for food and some basic transportation

Second Target: $20,000: A little more comfortable

Third Target: $40,000: This is where I'd really like to be. This would be approximately 1 year of my core living expenses, including mortgage and car payment.

--

Now if I am able to accumulate between 20-40K of silver at under say $35/oz; and then silver does eventually shoot up to say $150 as some people have projected; I could then go along ways to paying off my mortgage.

Hmmmm this is getting interesting!

Plus; by that time ITRO should be at $10-20 a share.. hmmmmm

And THEN we all goto Atlantis, right? I've always wanted to go there; it's my dream vacation and where I want to take my honeymoon if I ever get married.

Maybe we could combine the trip; Honeymoon and ITRO shareholders celebration.

G-d what is wrong with me today? I'm CRAZY.

Thanks again for the answer AgNau;

And yes I've already started buying. My first transaction was last week. I went to a local dealer and bought 13 ounces of silver.

5 American Eagles
3 Canadian
5 Silver Rounds

and yes I am already hooked :)

What I'm really asking...
is it possible the fed will hit a ceiling and we could still go into a deflationary spiral and the precious metals will fall like everything else.

You can see a mini version of this in '08 when Silver hit $20-21 and then fell to like $5.

Sorry for all the messages this morning... I think I need a coffee! Starbucks here I come.

Inflation vs. Deflation;

Clearly AgNau is right. The Central Banks are devauling the currency.

1) to keep prices rising instead of in deflation
2) If everyone does it at the same time; it will be like causing China to raise the value of their currency.

So will there be a point where the fed says enough is enough; and puts on the brakes. Raising interest rates and whatever else they are going to do to unwind?

P.S. when I say 'the fed' I mean the federal reserve; not our fed, here :)

N/m AgNau,

I just saw your response. Thanks for the input. Since I am late to the party; is putting like $500/month into these investments enough; or should I catch up when I get my yearly bonus and tax refund? I could add 10-15K or more to my portfollio pretty quick.

Or I could pay off my car pamyment.
Or I could buy another 8000 shares of ITRO :)

Agnu,

You spend all day thinking about Silver. How much should I buy :)

No one wants to answer my silver question?

How much is a good amount of silver to own?
What should a minimum be. I heard one person say 20%.

What should my minimum amount on hand be in physical silver. I'm thinking 12 months of expenses would be a good target; But if theres really a currency colapse, won't the value of silver shoot up; so like $25/ounce could become $150-250.

sounds like good advice Harpe,

This is probably a stupid question:

But is 5000 shares enough? I've always wanted 10,000. I think if ITRO makes it, seeing the stock at $10 would not be out of the question.

What do you guys think?

Hey SOilder;

I'm with Fed, I could use more explanation on this one.

I'm not quite clear on how subsidiaries affect share value of Itronics.

If Auric gets rich how does that affect ITRO stock?
I actually have the same question with like say EMC and VMW. Where EMC is the parent company to VMWare.

I agree with all of your points; to an extent

Yes it would be nice if after R&D ITRO could have tapped a larger percentage of market share on the jump. But since that didn't happen, now ITRO's market cap is driven by actual sales numbers. Speculation can only hold out for so long.

But the upside of that is, the speculators have left, and we can acquire the stock at actual fair value. That's what my point was. So now we have an undervalued stock, that still has good growth, and we the ones that are remaining no that all of the things that led to the initial speculation are still possible. It just may take longer to realize the results.

So now on the speculation / under development side we have
1) silver 10x/100x
2) Auric
3) All of that untapped market that can still be seized.

For #3 we can deduce the limiting factors are likely
1) initially too expensive to scale and mass produce
2) pour cash flow to improve delivery and manufacture cycle
3) The technical process of ITRO is more expensive to operate and therefore requires higher wholesale cost; potentially limiting mass distribution; unless the broad market is willing to pay more for a premium product or the cost can be reduced. It seems the silver 10x/100x project will help in this area; How much is TBD.

Those are my suppositions, and it makes more sense then just "Whitney is stupid". Maybe Whitney didn't forsee those three things in the beginning though; or thought they could be more easily overcome.

So if I could ask Whit one question it would be "What are the current obstacles to increasing sales and improving the manufacture and distribution chain."

Follow-up question would be "If you can overcome these obstacles what is your plan of attack to acquire more market share"

Good timing to answer Feds question...

What happened to the market cap, and when will the share price go up??

(I'm guessing the other investor was probably Proxy)...

ITRO is currently FAIRLY valued at approx 4 Mil market Cap. Look at their sales numbers to understand why this is so.

ITRO's market cap is reflected by their actual sales numbers. However ITRO sales are growing consistently and at high percentage. It's not reasonable to expect a doubling in sales every quarter or year after year; however the trend is obviously up.

With Silver 10x/100x underway it is obvious the increase in revenues will be sustainable and likely have a parabolic increase at some point. In any business this increase does not happen the day they launch a new project. It won't be apparent for at least 2 QTRS after the full implementation of Phase II silver.

When will ITRO share price finally run to higher limits? The answer is simple. When ITRO sales rise the market cap will follow.

What the share price is NOT dependent on is: Press releases, Whitney's performance on MoneyTV and his ability to give a compelling speach at investors confferences. Sure all those things may help edge things along; But they are not the make or break things.
----
Why does ITRO no longer have an 85 Million dollar market cap? It's because there sales are no where near that. ITRO suffered the same fate as many companies that are R&D and take many years to get to market. There are many examples of this with pharmaceuticals and one example that comes to mind in a different industry is Home Grocer.

Home Grocer was a on-line grocery store and delivery service. Personally I think it was an AWESOME idea and I think it could have survived if it didn't suffer from bad investors. What is a bad investor? It's an investor that puts in a bunch of money and expects a return on their money in 6 months for an endeavorer that is obviously going to take longer then that. Home Grocer had to buy a fleet of trucks, a whole delivery chain, warehouse all the food, pay for large employee base.

Home Grocer eventually got bought out by Webvan and eventually went BK because their growth plans were so dependent on equity investors.

So what are the lessons here.

Well 1st, is philosophically if we don't have at least some bad investors who are impateint and want to throw money at the wind and expect immediate results; alot of IPO's would probably fail to raise enough money to get the businesses off the ground

Second, if there are too many bad inpatient investors, it can sink a company. Same if the Company really does take significantly longer then expected to get to market; then even good investors will flee.

Bottom line though is that while ITRO is still trying to get ahead of the cash-flow curve, they seem to be persistent and able to stay operational. Their projects are moving forward and their cash flow is expected to increase. Once that happens more growth will follow.

ITRO still has a large potential to return to a high market cap stock. But now it has to prove it with sales. Personally I think it's a rare opportunity to buy a stock close to fair market value Instead of paying 60x PE for a stock that's overvalued and full of nonsensical investors.

Hey Fed,

Are u from New York? Just wondering :)

Pretty good news today; I will be happy when we break above $2.00

Moon;

I have some PUTS that I got close to 2 weeks ago. I think a moon reversal is possible but right now I am thinking moon follow-through to the downside is more likely. That often happens when there is 3 consecutive moon-phases one way, you can get the opposite in the next wave.

Besides the previous moon pattern I see the following
1: Broke Ickimoku cloud to the downside on daily chart. Tomorrow it needs to confirm a clean break.
2: Broke top cloud line on weekly chart
3. Multiple MA crossovers look bearish, including 3/13 Cross on weekly chart and 13/200 on the daily chart (13/50 also closing in)
4: OBV, Stochastics and RSI are bearish and look like they have more room to the downside


... I will be watching tomorrow and the next day to see how the week ends.

If I think the reversal is coming I will cover my PUTS and then replace them near the new moon.

Just a thought...

Could Whitney develop a new service using his existing technology and/or capabilities to extract and recycle uranium from post-fissioned material?

If he incorporates that into his business model he would get government funding and also have a new fertilizer product... "Gold n' Glow"

couple thoughts

Second best is still good. Would it be better to beat every QTR? of course!
But maybe WHit is actually listening to people on this board who is saying we need more hype and excitement.

The press release could have said "second qtr numbers disappoint. Not as exciting as the best quarter last year".

But then, Fed would be saying Whit needs to release more optimistic press releases.

Clearly the references to second best is an attempt to put some spark in the press release.

Fed what happens in September!
u are driving me crazy!

if u won't tell u can at least share your meds

nice move back to 1.95.
Good healthy retest.