The RAIM model does have an active scalp which started yesterday (at close). Its got a modest increase for Monday - looking at 125%.

<<take the hat off. I am expecting a 2-3% day or more in indexes to the upside for tomorrow. >>

I'm currently in a no-man zone. The advance is too small to sell, but too large to add into.

Nonetheless I am leaning toward bumping up deployment a smidge.

Currently 107%. Not getting help from Latin and China.

Nice job with the shorts. You gonna be green today??

I will have to settle for getting additional spread on the SPX. I definitely need to take more risk, after Tuesday I pretty much knew that markets would likely take a step back, but kept 60% in the long kitty anyhoo.

Moved to 100-110% for tomorrow, with a cut of China and Latin to go with NDX.

Was looking at the SPX last night and noticed a great looking ascending triangle in formation, and near completion.

Given todays drop, I am looking to move my port back to 100%; hopefully to catch a breakout.

Nothin doin today. Maintaining 60% long.

Congrats on the gains!

I was able to pull off a 9.1% port gain with a 147% exposure. Sweet!

+58.7% since Nov 20 lows vs. +21.1% for the SPX

The reason that I use this metric is that I was not particularly paying attention to my port until late October, and do not have anything else to benchmark off of. That said, going by memory I appear to be roughly 20% below portfolio levels from earlier in the year.

About 60% long for manana.

Thx Steve. Great compilation; booked it.

Markets cooking with gas now. Taking down the Latin and China. We'll see how the close goes for the NDX.

Don't want to jinx the markets, but nice call Steve!

<<have the bulls will be running hard tomorrow with a possible 5% day on nas,spx etc.>>

I was reading some pundits on some other threads and thinking of holding back and doing nothing, however I followed my RAIM signal which has had a scalp active since Thursday.

So I will be looking forward to a big day, should the markets behave into the close.

How's your wireless coming along today? I do not know the index and am too lazy to look it up.

Will move exposure to 150% per RAIM OB-OS model, its still on a scalp from last week.

Are you in Maui??

Yes there would be several advantages to refinancing at 30 years, particularly noting that the current 15 year rates are virtually the same.

Their fees are extremely low compared to banks, of course.

The website says $999.

I do not wish to appear that I am pimping this company, there are several other internet mortgage outfits offering similar rates.

I'm still waiting to refinance. This company, who I used for an original mortgage in 2001 and a refi in 2002, are among the lowest you will see.

http://www.americaninterbanc.com/ratesheet/Rate-Sheet-Template.pdf

Ours is currently 30yr fixed at 5.375. To refi again I would like to see the 30yr at 4.5 or the 15yr at 4.0.

They show 5.0 with no points. They do have a 4.5 rate, but with 3 points.

On the surface I'd like to do the 15year and be done with it in 2024. But times being what they are, it might be advantageous to have a lower 30year rate.

Those 90% of mortgage holders who are solvent, if they could all refi at a percentage point lower, that in itself would free up massive liquiduity.

Congrats on the gains today Steve! 6.87% is massive. Small caps and midcaps doing the honors I suppose??

A modest 1.5% gain for my port today. I've beem measuring my performance from the Nov 20th low, currently up +46.5% since then. The SP500 benchmark index is +16.9% in that same time.

I posted the following on Monday, referencing last Fridays values:

<<Prior to todays move, I found myself up 37.5% from the Nov 20th lows. The SPX was up about 15% and the NDX about 13%>>

Targeting SPX 1025, after which I will assume a bearish posture again. Still about 15% away.

I need to hit the road here soon. Don't like to add on up moves, so I will prolly shift some NDX over to the underperforming Intls.

Morning guys

Yeah I agree NAMO is not currently providing a cap to the upside.

Despite all the noise, we're currently looking at a nothing day. NDX is up for me, but its offset by the Intl losses.

Hopefully we'll bust a move one way or another into the close.

NDX close on Monday 1177.87.

Low today (so far): 1177.86.

Gap filled!

You played it quite well Steve. Congrats!!


<<like i said, really struggling with todays trade. decided to do something totally different. sold china and half latin funds and went long 40% the double dow. sooo...40% long for wednesday. no clue what happens. going to lunch to clear head>>

Yeah I was too chicken to go short as well. Ultmately I played it properly, cutting holdings in half on Monday, but did not put money where mouth is.

I will likely move to an even 100% at EOD. The RAIM model is not OS yet, so will avoid a margin play.

Finally the markets doing something. Means we will need to works and study our models/charts over the next hour to see if buying is warranted yet.

I'm about the same place as you Steve - a shade over 50% long, albeit NDX.

Yeah I just saw the quotes and thought Steve's port must be rocking . . .

Looks like I will have to settle for recovering yesterdays modest losses.

I'd have to agree that we'll need some more down in order to get me into additional longs.

Just sitting tight at 50% NDX.

At this point I think I will just do nothing today. NDX down marginally, but the flattish day relieves a little of the OB conditions.

Picking up more spread on the SPX as its down handily.

After seeing some of the OB readings, I am now wishing I had even less than a 50% holding.

Hi Kanuti,

Somehow I had the idea that you and Steve were rolling with 200% from the Nov 20 low.

SPX has now gained 21% since the 752 low on Nov20 and sits at 909.7. Am targeting SPX 1025 as the point where I will take my ball and go home.

Todays port gain of 5.8% puts me at +45.1% since the Nov20 low. I did go into the hole in the runup to Nov 20, so +45.1% is not indicative of YTD gains. 50% long for tomorrow - all NDX.

I gotta pare it back today.

I've got several indicators which tell me that shorting would be a good idea in the near term.

Unfortunately I am not calculating real time NAMO, but prior to today it was sitting around +60. Todays action will push that number to a nosebleed range.

And my 5-day Up-Down volume oscillator is also in rare territory. At one point I created a model that scales into short positions when the U-D oscillator gets to be so high, but I haven't been able to locate that spreadsheet. I know I posted those results on this forum back in the day - will see if I can dig it up.

Nice gains today. Some of you guys are sitting on 2X positions, correct??

Prior to todays move, I found myself up 37.5% from the Nov 20th lows. The SPX was up about 15% and the NDX about 13%.

For the sake of argument, lets say I just sat on a 2X NDX position since Nov 20 instead of moving in and out.

Prior to today, the NDX2X would have been up 26%, although that position looks to move up nicely with todays action. Possibly to 34 or 35%.

With my Intl exposure, a 5% port gain could hike me to 43%. So the active trading looks to be working out thus far.

Yeah I was in a boring 2 hour meeting today. Looked at my phone one minute and the NDX was down 2%. Checked again 15 minutes later and its up 1 percent.

Removed the 40% that I added yesterday for a nice swing. I was late to the trading desk, so comtinuing to hold the Intls.

Had to take todays 4% reduction on the NDX and picked up an additional 40%.

Well everyone know its going to suck, so I guess it will be the level of suckitude.

BTW it was just brought to my attention that home mortgage rates are plummeting. 5.25% zero points on a 30 year fixed can be had:

www.americaninterbanc.com

We're already at 5.375, will be holding out for 4.5%.

Markets tanking at the close here - another 5% day??

I'm sitting ~ 100% for now, but will increase beta and slide some NDX $$ over to the Intls.

A further collapse into the close and I may add new $$

It would be an understatement to say that it didn't bother me.

Despite a 5% portfolio drawdown yesterday, I guess I felt some satisfaction in gaining a 3% edge over the indices.

Removing UltraLatin and UltraChina from the port - going from ~125% to ~95%.

If the market tanks, I would like to avoid losing more than the market avg.

Earlier today I was in position to recover yesterdays losses, but markets now seem headed into the crapper again.

<<I would have thought things would have been worse today than they were...>>

I am listening to CNBC Europe right now, they pointed out that the DOW had the 4th worst 1-day drop ever (points I assume).

Funny how those of use who live and die for this high volatility barely bat an eyelash at an 8% drop.

Very prescient Steve!!

I hope to dip into the RE pool at some point but it seems evident that the downward spiral has not yet hit bottom.

We got one of those 4-96 Up-Down volume days today (again). Given that I wonder if this selloff will hold into the close.

I am looking to double up on current 65% long position at the close, mixing in some of the Internationals.

Well Steve, I opted to sell my Intls today, looking for a better entry. Will take a small hit but minor considering the gains from earlier in the week.

This will leave me at 65% long NDX.

Yeah I know what you mean by the lines. I also swung by Office Depot, which was adjacent to the Best Buy. Office Depot is not built for big crowds - there was a line extending to the rear of the store with only 3 registers.

I considered a 22" monitor for $199, but didn't feel the probable 1 hour wait in line was worth my time. A good thing - Tiger Direct is selling 22" widescreens with what looks like a $199 average price, some models down at $179.

Anecdotal on Black Friday.

I went to Best Buy this morning at 6am, was there for about an hour. This was in Emeryville, CA home to Pixar, Chiron and several other Pharmas and Biotechs. Lots of young (employed) trendoids there.

It was busy as you would expect, they were out of the Quad-Core desktop I was after. But I observed pallets full of wide-screen TVs just sitting around. Seemed like little interest in the big-tickets.

Back to the markets - I guess were closing what at 12:30 EST?

Not looking to make any moves at this point - US indices are flattish.

Going back through my notes, the McLellan thresholds I am targeting are +50 on the NAZ and +75 on the NYSE.

Todays NAZ closed at +48. Further advances on Friday will get me to scale it down for Monday.

Have a great Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow Steve, Kanuti and et. al.!

Wow the Intls are up +8% currently - double that for Ultra.

Under the current scenario (Bear mkt rally), my prior modus operandi would be to scale back or go to cash when the McLellan Oscillator achieved some threshold (I think +75).

But currently I do not have a means currently to calculate NAMO on the fly. I will need to find this spreadsheet and populate forward.