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Didn't Lassonde predict $500 before the end of 2004? I think it was him, but maybe it was one of the other mining CEO's...
Dubya is a firm believer in foxes guarding chicken coops...
I hope you don't have to change your mind again. Nassacres are notoriously heavy things, and you'd have trouble getting the elevation needed to refenestrate it into that 10th-floor window. (besides, "refenestrate" isn't even a word, so that option is out). You'd have to pick it up, lug it into the ground floor, and then take the elevator back up to 10. All this while trying to daytrade...
I didn't have any position, actually. I was looking for a pop on the news so I could short it. At this point, it looks like a half-way decent long position to me.
As for the "insane" part, you'll notice that I didn't try to contradict him on that. I only wonder how he could tell, just based on one fairly rational post <g>
Thanks, Dan
How much of that $2 billion would have been used to purchase physical metal if GLD hadn't existed? How much higher would gold be today if GLD wasn't launched?
My answers: (1) very little... it would have gone into CEF and mining stocks
(2) not higher at all
I really need, though, to get myself a whole lot of gold coins instead of that GLD stock.
This is big...
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKUd_L2Y6fRw&refer=news_index
I don't know if you saw this or not, but it's the cause the big move today in the $US.
Looks like the Koreans want to bail out before the Chinese do...
Zeev - I understand. The difference with DNDN is that I think it is knowable when the next hype wave will hit. If there are pops that are caused by good news for one of their competitors (the usual course for stocks like this), then those make even better short-term shorts.
Your insane
To say what your spelling ability makes you would be to violate the rules of this board, so I'll just let you think about it.
As for your point, though... I short stocks like this all the time, and make money at it. It has nothing to do with my opinion of DNDN's eventual success. As a potential prostate cancer victim, I hope they succeed beyond their wildest dreams.
It's all about the psychology behind the stock. I think you should be familiar with that psychology, because you probably share it. Their good news is out, now. When will they get more good news? It's going to be a while. And while we're all waiting, people will start getting bogged down in the details, to wit... How can there be such a contradiction between TTP and Survivability? Does the very small sample size mean anything? How long will it take to get real approval? What will the market be? What will the competition be doing in the meantime?
It matters not that all these questions may be resolved favorably for the company. What matter is that it takes time, and doubt grows, and people who bought the stock looking for a big pop get impatient and go looking for the next big pop.
Sometime in the next few months, DND is going to fall off considerably. It's just a question of from what point the falloff occurs...
DNDN - If they get much of a pop on this news, I see them as a good short. They don't have more news coming for a while and, as you say, the evidence is equivocal...
That's pretty bad. From the chart you posted, it looks like January should be seasonally strong...
Looks like there's a way to play Greenspan's appearances. Just go flat gold the afternoon before, then wait until a few minutes into his discourse. If he comes out and warns about deflation, or says there's no possbility of inflation, then stay flat. If it's just meaningless mumbling, reestablish the long position in gold.
I think the Gold bottom was event-driven. The absolute bottom was a few minutes after the trade deficit was released last Thursday morning. There was a quick $1.50 selloff, then it's been steadily higher since.
Looks like a lot of money was waiting for that number...
Yeah, the hard landing/soft landing question is the important one. If I thought there would be a soft landing, I wouldn't concern myself with gold. Since I haven't got a clue, one way or the other, I have to maintain a huge gold position just as insurance...
Maybe it will end ugly and maybe it won't. I'm just saying that we are not like any other country that has gone thru this. It's a matter of size. The world can let Argentina, and its currency, go down the drain overnight. It can't let that happen to the U.S...
I think the U.S. already is a "special case". The current situation is unprecedented, so there just aren't any past situations that we can use as parallels...
Interesting thought....
Just make two adjustments to the books:
1. Mark the gold holdings to market
2. Mark the poor countries' debt down by the same amount
I wonder if that can be done...
Do you have any backup figures for the gold price of that bag of groceries? I have my doubts. The price of Gold may be up about 1200% since 1929, but I'll bet that bag of groceries is up a lot more. Real estate is up way, way, way, way more...
Lee re Gold - Yes, but my main point is that Gold will not necessarily retain value. There is this idea that Gold is a store of value, that its nominal value will increase as currencies lose value. That just isn't necessarily true. If all fiat currencies lose value, which appears to be the goal of the central banks (and one that they are pulling off fairly well), then the $US nominal value of gold, which is being determined by the ratio of the $US to other currencies, will stay steady. This means that the real value of Gold will drop.
Then, we would need an inflation-induced panic to push up the price of Gold. This panic is something the central banks are determined to avoid, and they likely will be able to do so for many years...
FRO - See what I mean about the price being volatile and unpredictable?
OT - Good story. Next time you're in any doubt about tracks, look for claw prints. Cats don't leave any, and dogs always do.
I'm not worried about the intrinsic value of Gold because I know the price will never get anywhere near there. Gold will always have currency value.
My point is that the intrinsic value will also never serve as support for the market price, because they will always be too far apart. Thus, the price of gold will always be determined either by the value of the $US relative to other currencies, even if all currencies are simultaneously losing value, or (in our wildest dreams), it will be determined by "sentiment" (i.e. panic), like back in 1979.
BTW, I posted that I'd changed in one third of my huge GLD position for VGPMX. Actually, it ended up being more like half. I don't know the mix of metals that VGPMX holds, but gold must not be a very large percentage, because VGPMX hasn't moved in close step with the POG. I know that VGPMX's charter allows it to get into uranium (and that they have a sizable position), and I'm looking for them to take advantage of a super bull market over the next decade or so...
OT - Very interesting! I can see why mountain lions, being relatively small, would want to attack from behind. I would think a tiger could attack from any direction he wanted...
My problem is that the price of Gold, being far above its intrinsic value, is completely subject to popular opinion. If popular opinion decides to price Gold based on the $US/Euro ratio, we could just sit and helplessly watch our investments deteriorate as both the $US and the Euro depreciate.
I wonder, BTW, what gold would be priced at if it had no currency value...
I agree. If the Chinese and Japanese want to finance our profligacy and low interest rates, who are we to decline the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines?
But Ken... everyone knows that mountain lions only attack from behind - they'd never attack a group of people moving toward them. In this part of the country, after a biker was killed last year and another attacked and nearly killed, some bikers actually attached masks to the back of their helmets to confuse the lions...
So much for Gold being protection against inflation. Europeans holding Gold have seen it decrease in value by the same amount as the Euro, perhaps 10% in the last three years...
Natural selection at work...
BLTI has only said that they'll report "in late February". Last year, they reported on February 24.
The performance of the SMH was a revelation yesterday, given the mediocre-at-best results posted recently by tech companies. It really had the feel of a damn-the-torpedoes push by Da Boyz, the kind that signals a significant move up...
Were you falling behind in your word-of-the-day calendar? <g> OK, obnubilation and kinephantom are easy enough, but asteisticon? Did you spell that right?
Hmmm.... guess I shouldn't have answered your first post about OMM. Well, there's no explaining today's action, other than that it's an earnings play...
Lee... How do you handle your all-night trading at the same time as your twelve fantasy teams? <g>
Just keep an eye on those tanker rates. I imagine there are many boards where they're discussed, but this is the one I know:
http://www.11wall-west.com/discus/messages/17/17.html?1108092182
"Killernut" is the guy who does all the research.
OMM - Keep in mind that the period they're reporting for saw almost unbelievable rates, much higher than can possibly be sustained.
In December, VLCC rates went way over $200k/day, and they came back to $30k/day in January (I think they were $80k/day last I noticed).
I'm actually optimistic on the tankers. I have made a lot of money on OMM, and currently own quite a bit of FRO and SFL.
FRO should be announcing their even-more-spectacular earnings very soon. They also will be announcing that most of those earnings will be paid out as dividends, and that they will be spinning off more, if not all, of their remaining share of SFL. In other words, I'd say FRO is the better bet right now...
Yesterday, I was starting to get the opposite sense. That is, that the sellers were finding out that $50 oil does not bring a slackening of demand, and doesn't bring unbearable political pressure, and that they will now want to find out how $55 oil fares, or $60, etc...
Of course, I'm trying to think like a producer, and I'm not at all sure that the producers really have much power to raise prices.
But, hey, will the baseball season really make much difference, when there is no hockey season preceding it? We are treading on uncharted waters here...
That's one heck of a chart. The $50 level certainly bears watching...
LSCP - They have not scheduled a release, AFAIK, but last year it was on February 12...
I think it's more a sell-on-the-news kind of thing. People were speculating on the trade number helping the $US, Once it came out, the speculators sold...
I think that's a myth. Israel does not have the capability to do that. They were successful with Iraq because the Iraqis were dumb enough to put all their eggs into one basket (Osirak), because the target was much closer than any of the Iranian targets would be, and because they managed a surprise attack, which won't be possible now that the Iranians are on their guard.
I'm dumping 1/3 of my GLD position and buying more VGPMX with the proceeds. VGPMX has hardly participated at all in the painful selloff of the PM's over the last nine weeks. I think that they diversified out of gold/silver and into uranium, etc. I'm hoping that, when the $US finally turns down again, that VGPMX will participate fully in the PM runup.
Besides, Dan, your barrage of posts about GLD's bullion holdings is having its intended effect. It's turning me into a nervous wreck. I've bitten my fingernails down to the first knuckle, my hair is falling out, and I've developed a twitch in one eye. I hope you're happy...