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<<Even the symbol, bin Laden, remains as elusive as ever. This has got to be tremendously frustrating for a military used to being able to identify and locate a target, and proceed methodically against it. Is it any wonder, then, that the "terrorist threat" seems to have been shifted to a single nation, and that effecting a "regime change" has been defined as a "victory against international terror"? That being achieved, the military can now proceed in a more traditional manner. >>
Having been a part of that military for over 46 years, first as a dependent, then as a West Pointer, and finally as an officer, I can address some of that comment. This isn't the first time we have had an elusive enemy to combat. In Korea we thought we were fighting an aggressor NK army. Then a new foe came across another border and shocked the heck out of us. Unfortunately they were supplied from China and that country was determined to be out of bounds.
In Vietnam we came across a similar set of circumstances. The enemy was elusive and the country we were at war with was off limits to ground forces.
Those were the wars we did not win. But then no one wins wars. Someone just loses more.
The thing that frightens me is when people decide there is nothing worth fighting for. I'm not sure about Iraq. I don't have as much evidence as does our government and the CIA. Unfortunately, there will always be an element which believes we have an untrustworthy government. Because there have be shenanigans, all politicians will be painted with the same brush; guilty or not.
To assume that Saddam can't hurt us is preposterous since 911. We now know that enemies with very meager means can make our lives miserable. They don't even have to make us the direct target. Simply making the world a more dangerous place hurts us all. Who will stand up to countries with WMD's when they encroach on their neighbors?
I am only sure of one thing in this issue, if we don't trust our government to make correct assesments and the right decisions then we are in a heck of a pickle.
See that's the problem SoxFan. Everyone chooses what they want to read and who they believe. I'm not even going to dignify those allegations regarding the Gulf War with a response.
If you really don't understand the difference between referring to your comment as ignorant and biased and calling you a name then this discussion is fruitless. For someone so willing to criticize others you are awfully quick to have your feelings hurt.
Nobody's perfect. The last guy got his thrills by groping recently widowed women in the oval office and having sex with 21 year old staffers then lying about it.
Of course before he got into office there was White Water...Jennifer Flowers, Mena. Then there is that questionable death of Foster....and the other one with Brown...etc.
Look our biggest problem continues to be that there is no one qualified to handle the issues facing this country let alone operate within this global community. Those who are willing to try will be scrutinized under a microscope and criticized unmercifully by pundits who have no answers just more problems.
Like I suggested to the last fellow, as Americans we need to try to become part of the solution rather than the problem. Instead of sitting on a thread complaining, why not use the time to make your community a better place to live.
<<Mike - Bin Laden is no threat to our democratic institutions as he cannot beat us in a war nor dictate any changes in our form of government. >>
SoxFan. The only way a president can take away our freedoms is if the fear from an external source is greater than the fear of loss of our freedoms. We have been primed to review our need for freedom and compare it with the inherent dangers of a free and open society.
Like I said, we have given President Bush an impossible mission. We want him to lead an eclectic society through a mine field in which there are no right answers. Whatever the course of action taken there will be naysayers ready to proffer their critical review. They won't have any answers acceptable to anyone except those of similar political ilk.
George Bush didn't come into this job looking to undermine individual rights. He didn't ask Osama to kill 3000 people nor to shock a nation. It was, on the other hand, inevitable for the critics to come crawling out of the woodwork.
He also isn't responsible for any American complicity with Saddam's use of gas against Iran or the Kurds.
I have no idea why anyone would ever want to be president. George Bush isn't the right guy for the job. That guy doesn't exist. Bush was just the best one available willing to undertake the job.
Try to look past your political bias and see if you can be part of the solution rather than the problem.
<<Where would Bush be today without the sad events of 9/11 ?>>
President of the United States.
<<Sorry you are so upset. I handed him nothing. By the way I am well informed. When someone disagrees with do you frequently resort to calling them names?>>
You may consider yourself well informed but you are reading challenged. No one called you names. Someone did critique your comments as biased and ignorant.
<<I repeat Bush is a bigger threat to our democratic form of government, to our personal freedoms under the Bill of Rights and to the U.S. Constitution than Bin Laden ever could be.>>
And I repeat...your comments are biased and ignorant.
<<Bush is a bigger threat to our democratic government than Bin Laden IMO.>>
That is such an ignorant and biased comment.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=691689
We have handed Bush an impossible mission and now all the little people sit and criticize. God help us all.
It is so easy to suggest that what we're doing is no real solution. But what's a fellow to do? If we react the way our previous Prez did we simply encourage our enemies to act bolder until they get our attention. Once forced into the role of "victim", we got very little satisfaction when half the world rejoiced at our pain and the other half proffered no answers for our plight.
If we respond forcefully then we must be reminded that a superpower must be constrained because other countries also have WMD's. Isn't that what Iraq is all about? A country that has no business with WMD's is being told they won't be allowed to keep them. (Please spare me the lame politico-talk about oil-we invented the concept of overpaying the Arab states for their oil). If the US cannot enforce this then pray tell who can? France? What a laugh that is. France has no moral imperative so why should a Frenchman try to impose his value system on the US.
Working within the constraints of the United Nations is the only recourse that makes any sense. Today there are many countries that are absolutely out of control. Afghanistan, Colombia, Venezuela, Somalia, Sudan, etc...etc... Their very existence destabilizes the countries around them and ultimately the world. But how to work within a governing body that couldn't agree on anything if their worldly existence depended upon it...which it does.
The greatest danger we have is in our inability to determine a course of events that Americans can agree on... This will be our downfall. As we allow our partisan self interests to interfere with national resolve we will emasculate our leaders and accelerate the process of disintegration that has already begun.
Yeah, in fact, no inflammatory rhetoric period. Heck, no rhetoric period.
Let's all just meditate...Wouldn't life be greeeeaaat......
Hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..............
Zeev, we are all big boys and girls here. The piece was worth reading and he said what he said...without pulling punches. I don't think people need to be called to task for failing to remove excerpts from someone else's work. The message was on task even if the politics don't appeal to everyone's sensibilities.
By the way, Clinton may have won two elections but he never got as much as 50% of the vote.
Agreed Zeev, but that's no case for rising interest rates.
<<It may be premature, and be cancelled later this week, but if that happens, I am almost sure that by the end of the month it would be reinstituted.>>
If what specifically takes place...?
<<Yes, to some extent, dividend yields will decline (due to dividend yielding stocks being in higher demand), but that influence may very well be "cancelled" if the market smells the rise of interest rates and the possible weakening of the economy led by housing, coming as a result of the new tax law, and once a decline in equities is in motion, it is stopped only when extreme negative sentiments come to the fore. All this is not an immediate event, mind you. >>
Zeev, I wonder if you aren't seeing a cloud behind every silver lining. We have over 5 trillion dollars sitting in MMs paying next to nothing and you see bond instruments being sold and interest rates rising while money runs away from bonds and into dividend yielding stocks. At the same time you acknowledge that the dividend yield will go down as the stocks rise...
Until our economy shows some propensity to inflationary growth and stops threatening to deflate, I see no propensity to higher interest rates. Somewhere in all of this adjustment, if you will, the total return on bonds still outpaces the tax free return of equities and we reach a stabilizing parity.
If what you opine has any merit it is that the yield curve will normalize somewhat as longer term rates disengage a meager amount from short rates to reflect greater risk. I would expect the mortgage market to react to this with greater emphasis on 5 year ARMs transferring risk to the mortgage holder. I don't even expect this to happen until there is some real semblance of strength in the economy.
The real question would then become: to what extent the FED would allow that disengagement before reacting. Another real question would be what is the future of the 30 year bond?
Signed,
Not as glum a Republican.
I don't think 1447 can hold against this momentum, do you?
Zeev, INVN gapped yesterday and has held the gap today. See any residual strength there? If so, any target?
<<I expect a G and mild C, not a negative close. That will come later this week, IMTO. I also expect 1447 to hold as a top. >>
Zeev, it's Thursday....How much later in the week are you planning? <g>
<<I used to be a republican...>>
LOL...yeah right.
<<You read much too much into the 22%, that is standard overnight stay for a very bullish stance, I'll probably be back under 10% cash by 11:30 AM.>>
And back to 22% by COB...<g>
So, Zeev...What degree of likelihood are you attributing to the correction holding 1347...vice retreating to 1220 or 1263?
That your cash position has grown to 22%, it would appear that you think the market is likely to slide a bit more before any run. That it is in fact correcting deeply suggests you believe we may not be forced to endure the COMPX run to 950 after all...
Is that about it?
Oh, also, doesn't the pc ratio bother you some?
Stocks acting like they want to fall off a cliff...How comfortable are you that we rally today?
INVN looks pretty good to me for a swing trade here...Are you in?
How does this area hold now that 1378 has clearly been breached. Isn't there a drop dead signal at this support juncture...?
Is everyone here buying sylvester? Are you buying? Am I buying?
Zeev, what's your short term outlook on the Compx...? I saw the early next year prediction...
There's been a pretty good opportunity to work down debt and lock in low mortgage interest rates during the past two years. If the consumer is tapped out then he's been a fool with his money or out of work for quite a while.
If the housing market holds up, which is a big if, then we may not have a house of cards here after all. IMHO, the problems are no less or more severe than 1932 when a full scale depression was kicking in. That market found an opportunity to take off and hardly look back.
I am torn between various scenarios but caution anyone to simply buy into yours lock, stock and barrel.
Zeev are you holding until Monday or closing by the end of day?
<<Not really, that was supposed to be in the first two hour, the turn occurred much earlier, but I don't expect much more than another 10 Naz points here either...>>
Market hasn't exactly played out according to plan today. COMPX has bounced up against resistance here. What then do you foresee for the rest of the day and tomorrow? Which short term scenario makes the most sense?
A rose by any other name jbennett53...
Not really worthy of a reply but I won't let silence sound like accord. Bush has a tough enough job that he doesn't need senseless comments like that one.
If there is no depth to your politics, please try to keep it to yourself.
Problem is JBennett53 that not everyone has decided that we can hole up inside the 50 states and ignore what goes on in the rest of the world. We tried to do that before WWII. It didn't work then and I doubt it does now.
The world is a lot more complicated than you seem to want to make it and so is the anger of the Muslims. They kill and /or enslave missionaries and converted Christians in those countries they dominate and yet expect their own religion to be respected in all countries in which they are a minority. I have a problem with the first half of that.
We seem to be primarily branded for supporting Israel, despite your characterization of our military mission.
Some of us believe there are worse things than dying...One is living for nothing.
In fact that is less a comparison than it is an absurdity.
Zeev, your argument is both articulate and ardent...but hardly practical. Our founding fathers had no jourisdiction over this turf. Surely, they understood the frailty of man but not the hazards of technology. Rights of society versus those of individuals will never be universally resolved.
There is no moral absolute here. The men who were killed in Yemen were mass murderers. They were out of reach and effectively protected by a country unwilling to submit to international extradition laws. While it may be true that moral outrage has become anesthetized by the horrors of countless terrorist acts, that doesn't make the retaliation wrong. We are in a state of war. A war which will not likely end until the right to live in peace and harmony is respected by both sides or one side is rendered ineffective. There can be no analogy to doing this in Canada. This retribution would not have occurred in Canada because they would be respecters of international law and the terrorists would have been apprehended and tried.
Hide your head in the sand with moral platitudes if you want but it will serve no more useful purpose than have all the random acts of killing. I sure wish that the world was a more civil place. It isn't, and unilateral passivism won't make it better. You and I both know that ignoring the terrorist acts will be not one whit more successful in suppressing their ambitions than would retaliating. This war will continue to be mired in a holocaust of one upmanship until the will or ability of one protagonist to continue is vanquished.
What Sharon is doing is both inconsequential and reprehensible because it adds to the disenfranchisement of people while solving nothing. Unfortunately the solution to the problem is not within his domain short of virtual annihilation of all who would refuse his nation the right to live peacefully.
Two wrongs don't make a right. One wrong and one right may make us feel better about ourselves but it affords us no comfort when the other is playing by a different set of rules. Man's basic law of survival is stronger than even our Constitution.
The old testament pointed to the same solution for Israel's welfare time and again. Complete annihilation of the enemy. When that was not fulfilled there was always a painful consequence.
We have many years of misery ahead, unless all countries will prosecute vigorously all perpetrators of terrorism so other countries aren't compelled to violate their borders. If countries are unable to prosecute, they will be "aided" by those who can. Anarchy cannot be condoned nor can it be ignored. War is hell and the sum of man's failures.
<<It looks that I got more OMG here in AH at $6.15, I should have taken that order off the tgable till tomorrow, well...>>
Looks like you came out smelling like a rose, Zeev...:o)
Yeah well, analyst sometimes don't have much to go on until the company comes clean. Only too often guidance is anywhere from inaccurate to out and out lying. Hard to hold analyst responsible for that.
Tony,
I doubt you will heed my advice but I will proffer nonetheless. I strongly recommend you do exactly what you intended albeit with the fewer dollars remaining. Cash out and pay off as much of your debt as you can. Get some help with debt counselling. They offer it free in many places. They can help you set up a schedule for repayment and even negotiate lowering your debt.
Put all your effort into getting a job. Get a handle on your life before you even think about "investing". Note I said investing. You aren't doing that now. You are in the world's largest casino and are betting against the house(da boyz as they are lovingly referred to)...
In the condition you are in, I can guarantee you that you will continue to make bad decisions until you have wasted what money is left... Bad decisions and urgent circumstances make for more bad decisions.
Many have been where you are. You aren't alone. However, the right decision escapes most... It is after all for many an addiction. When it is, it becomes a zero sum game. Get out of the rat trap!
I wish you success.
Compx touched 1220 Zeev...are we through in your opinion...?
Zeev originally you were looking for a rally Monday or Tuesday now it would appear later in the week... Did Friday's lame bounce lead to this?
Looks like you're getting your wish Zeev....As always careful what you wish for...<g>
Sorry Augie, I'm not buying all of it.
Yeah, there's plenty wrong in the financial sector and yes we are going to see some damned ugly things happen for the next few years. We will pay the price for an investment banking sector gone wild in the late Clinton era. There was plenty of greed to go around.
Our markets will continue to suffer. Some derivative instruments will unravel. Some banks will fail and some will merge. But our financial markets will muddle through and, as lousy as it will feel, we will pull out of this stronger and wiser than before.
I have no problem with the Grubmans and Ebbers of this world going to jail. But there are plenty of bankers who went about there business and cannot be lumped into your doomsday scenario.
Lighten up. It isn't a world gone to the dogs yet....