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smartone..turn off Fox News?? They are the only one fair and balanced. The liberal media had the Rev Wright story for months and did nothing...had it not been for blogs and Fox..it would still be unknown to the general public. I watch the liberal media too.......they have been positively having orgasms over Obama..both men and women..and I believe in some instances it is actual, and not a figure of speech.
You expect to get unbiased news from those creeps of the far left??........Nada.
john..re:Hindenburgs..they seem to be almost ubiquitous of late. I suppose sooner or later one of those will lead to a crash..but their value seems to be dimishing as time passes. Regards.
I should publicly thank Steve Norris, who posts here sometimes, for putting me on to watching the trends on the MID. That index is part of the happy family, but it doesn't have as many knee-jerk gyrations as the NDX or RUT for example....fewer whipsaws mean more profits. Trend is still long, but today may be a reversal. Regards.
Fox...very nice cycle chart. My uptrend on the MID is close to reversing. Either way is fine, as long as it's a sustained move..I read your chart as a probable drop into the end of June, which would be nice. Regards.
Two-Timer....uhhhyup..short-term trend is up. I am following the trend up, moving the sell signal on the long etf and the buy signal on the short etf close enough to not give back too much..but far enough that intraday wiggles don't give a whipsaw. Smile: when a plan works, it's a beautiful thing. Regards to all.
Thanks for the responses...all answers are cogent, and applicable.
I'm sure it must be a skill to make money going opposite the trend..I wouldn't be able to do it. For me, it would be a hard way to make a buck..or easy way to lose ten.
OTOH, the comment about knowing the trend, and the trend time is right on..
Without doing any study, and using a seat of the pants guess..I would guess that the ones most successful are those who can read the leaves most correctly, and see a short term reversal worthy of a scalp. How you do that is more advanced than I am....I mentioned to Gleno once that I can see some reasonable level of probability of direction the next day..or perhaps a few days out..and of course, the short term (2-5 day trend) but I have no idea what the next 15 minutes will bring.........and I gather that is the time frame most are trading.
Good luck to all, and maybe I can learn something.
curiosity question to no one in particular..responses from anyone would be welcomed.
Have any of you ever studied the returns of these conditions? :
1. Counter-trend scalping. Meaning, taking short scalp positions in an uptrend, or long scalp positions in a downtrend.
Versus
2. With-trend scalping. Meaning, taking long scalp positions on pullbacks while in an uptrend, or short scalp positions on a rally in a downtrend.
I wonder which would be more profitable?? Has anyone studied that?
re: high gas prices..yeah..I was rather surprised to realize a few weeks ago that those on the far left actually want gas prices to rise further. Their agenda is to have people drive less, smaller cars, etc. It finally explains why they have been so resistant to any oil drilling. Their objective is to force a radical change in America by using the pocketbook...it is consistent with their high tax advocacy..use taxes to force public behavior in ways that they deem socially correct. Others here have called them evil..and I finally agree. I probably should say that their objective and agenda is evil..not the individuals inclusively.
Again, they do not think of contingincies...the pin heads that live in Boston, NY, etc. can take mass transit or bicycle. Those who live in Western states, in particular, have no such opportunity..and many more miles to travel.
This is not a chart for trend determination...but instead the short-term health of a move. I don't see anything extended..there is room for a good move upwards yet..Ult osc correctly made a bottom on 6/12, along with trend indicators on other charts..I think there is a probability of another up day before profit taking Wednesday. Probabilities are just that, and nothing more.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p45864742057&a=78202559&listNum=1
Hi lbi....I have never been able to profit from price objectives..I do look at res/sup levels, and where there may be an expectation for a reversal..but the price objectives are mostly for a big picture look, and mine aren't accurate enough to make any trading moves.
I try to follow a trend..and like Yogi would say.."it's still a trend until it ain't" Of course, finding what you can follow to identify trends are where TA expertise comes in..and there are trade-offs between catching a reversal early vs. setting parameters so tight that you get whip-sawed to death. But trends have made me a good retirement living. Regards.
fwiw..weekly trend on mids turning up. There are too many cross-currents of variables that move prices, for anyone to know..much less predict, the effects on price. Why fight the trends?? bwdik.
Hi Free Markets...you should post more often.
re: taxes and Obama. The libs believe the foolishness that he is only going to increase taxes on the "rich"...the problem is that there are not enough rich people..and if they get squeezed too much they will move their businesses elsewhere, and themselves as well...
I think the libs resemble the old cannard about Hitler and pre-WWII Germany.."they came for the Jews and I didn't say anything..then they came for the handicapped, the blind, crippled, and diseased, and I didn't say anything..........then they came for me".
Hi ollie..re: medication causing deaths..I have noticed that there is a large anti-medication community, who instead of pills, promote herbal concoctions or sell books, etc. In other words, it's always about money..and they are trying to scoop up as much as they can of the money spent on health care for themselves.
While I agree that statins do not reverse heart damage...who is to say that Russert may have died at age 48 if he had not taken medications?
I remember him mentioning in an interview years ago that he had heart problems, and was dealing with them on his doctors advice..with diet and exercise. He specifically said he spent nearly an hour a day on an Air-Dyne exercise bike.
Probably he did not maintain the diet and exercise standards that may have prolonged his life..if that was the case..why would it be different if he read that book being promoted?..since that was two central tenets of the advice in the book?
The principal difference, as I see it, was that $40 of Russert's money would be in the hands of someone who knows no more about health than you or me. Regards.
Thank goodness for the Bush-Cheney admin...we've got a chance to find more oil until after the elections.....pumping it though, that's another matter unless the liberals can be defeated. Oh yeah, there's a worry among the nuts that the polar bears might be bothered by ships and planes and trucks.....seems I've seen these same polar bears invading remote towns, eating garbage, and generally looking non-plussed by humans..including pickup trucks. I hope they don't find any snail darters up there, or the work will stop.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,367015,00.html
qqew. edit: comment from Carl Swenlin:
"In the end I prefer equal-weighted indexes because they perform much better than their cap-weighted alternatives. For example, the Nasdaq 100 advanced 114% from the October 2002 bear market low to the recent highs. During the same period our unweighted Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 178%.
The secret behind this superior performance has to do with the fact that the smaller-cap stocks in an index usually perform better than the large-cap stocks; however, one should always be aware of the changing relative strength between the unweighted index and its cap-weighted version. Bear markets usually cause small-cap stocks to under perform large-cap stocks, so equal weight indexes may be more dangerous than the cap-weighted alternatives."
re: heavy weighting of Apple in the Q's...for those who want to trade the tech stocks, but trade a basket instead of individual stocks..there is an equal-weighted etf available.
12% seems pretty high to me too.
Golly..I hope that the ignore feature works on the board, and that I have seen the last post of the x rated bob...eeeesch...I feel like I need to take another shower after reading those two posts..speaking of slimy..
now, now, now...careful on talk about big, loose, goofy, left-handed, golf swings. I resemble that..playing baseball, when younger, it was an advantage to pitch and hit lefty...but golf is not the optimum game for left-handers.............I think the clubs are to blame, myself.
I have commented, along with at least one other..about Maurice Walkers site on Public charts. This was posted after the close yesterday...I guess if one listened to him, they would have been profitably positioned long for today.
"6/12 Commentary: You should define yourself as a trader. Are you a position trader (holding for the duration of a trend), a swing trader (usually holding for 2-5 days at a time), or a day trader (opening and closing a position in the same day). Each trader uses different strategies in order to accomplish their desired out come. Well if you are a day or swing trader, another opportunity has presented itself for those of who primarily trade off the intraday charts.
The SPY and S&P 500 10-min charts formed a bullish falling wedge that broke out this morning. Then after a huge run up, prices retreated and gave back almost all of the gains. The sell off at the end of the day allowed a double bottom pattern to form in the 10-minute timeframe. The SPY 10-min got a bullish DI cross on the ADX at the end of the session, while the histogram moved into positive territory after a higher trough low developed.
The SPY and S&P 500 60-minute charts reveal that prices are tagging the lower boundary of a falling price channel. The last candlestick on the S&P 500 60-minute chart was a bullish hammer, which bounced off support. Moreover, the candlestick the daily charts of the S&P 500 and the DJIA were inverted hammers. These inverted hammers could act as short term reversal patterns, as prices attempt a recovery off oversold levels. The SPY 10-min double bottom measures 2.25 points with a target of 138.02. The S&P 500 measures 22 points with a target of 1375, taking it above the 1370 confirmation line of the complex h & s top pattern.
The Qs 10-min chart now has a bullish falling wedge which developed over the last 5 trading sessions. At the end of the session today the stochastic got a pop, moving above the previous peak. Meanwhile, the MACD got a bullish cross and the RSI broke its downtrend. The ADX indicator is showing signs of being overextended. The spread between the DI lines is diminishing, as they appear to be converging together for a possible short-term bullish cross.
The market looks short term bullish, means one of two things. Either we will get a better than expected inflation report measured by the consumer price index, coming in at/near consensus, or it will be a bad report that the market shrugs off. Either way, I don?t think inflation is a problem right now. So far inflation has been behaving itself, even with higher crude oil prices.
Having seen the bullish intraday charts today, I hope that you decided to take some profits as I did."
So...although some were chippy that I mentioned an early day trend change yesterday..there were others seeing the same thing yesterday..albeit in somewhat different ways. Good luck to all.
Three American Muslims in Ohio guilty of plotting to kill Americans in Iraq.....the enemy within?? With all due respect to Farooq, many Americans may justifiably fear just that.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_re_us/military_plot_trial
Hi TicTac...I don't want to be a "wannabe guru". I just trade for myself. The problem is that some people in the past have wanted to quarrel with the indicators or settings I use......heck, I've got no time for that.
I don't mind trying to contribute what little insight I have in a comment or two..and then let the others look at their own indicators if they wish.
There is nothing exotic about my method..I just try to stay on the right side of the trend..judge support and resistance..and seasonal/intervention/news probable results.
Regards.
Hi blasher..I entered the MID index when it changed trends in the early morning. It barely managed to hold that positive change by the end of the day, nevertheless, I held overnight, and added more this morning....all the while realizing that I might get a whipsaw..it doesn't happen too often, but when you try to be quick on a trend change..there is a risk.
I just checked my account at IB...I like what I see, and it offsets my loss of early in the week. Regards.
be..I admire your scalping skills. Continued good luck with your trades. Regards.
The trend change signal yesterday seemed to be a good one..long and strong from about 10:30 yesterday. I lost some earlier in the week, so it's going to be an about breakeven week for me.
That's not good enough, of course. The problem, as usual, was in the cockpit....I didn't believe the strength of the drop in early week, and let myself get on the wrong side. Dang emotions get in the way of what I see, sometimes.
a kiss and a nibble??.......when I was younger that usually lead to something.
rcks...I noticed yesterday that there were so-called weak hands selling into the price rise. Until those are shaken out, there may not be a strong rally. I know many doubt a rally occuring in the near future..but the fed is doing all it can to goose the market..and betting against their power is like playing dodge ball on the highway. Regards.
Bob...I think many of us are hoping it is the radical liberals who leave the country, as they have promised to do if Mac wins. Can Mac win?? Sure he can..I noted a woman (nurse) leading a loosely coordinated group of Clinton supporters who are democrats not willing to have the country move as far left as the most liberal Senator in Congress would likely lead. I think as Obama becomes exposed, more and more dems and independents will move toward Mac..and the reps who have been cool towards him will become highly supportive, as they realize what the consequences are.
In fact, if I were a betting man..I would place a sizable wager that McCain wins. If not, it will be darn close.
Foot..the MID trend reversed upward early in the trading day, and barely managed to hold that positive trend into the close. One could easily make a case tommorow for a NDX bounce based on oversold indicators..and the RUT put in a small positive gain for the day. All leading to say..my money is on a bounce. Regards.
ollie......I can see it now..the ACLU will help file in a federal court that is presided over by the most liberal judge available..and there are some real loonies sitting in judgement chairs.
Said liberal judge will find for the defendents, they will be released, and return to their villages as heros..only to join the jihad once more.
There is nothing sane about liberal courts...and that in itself, is the worst aspect of a liberal President and Congress...they can ramrod through the most liberal of judge appointments.
Gleno..re: medical costs. Don't worry my friend, in less than a year a dem congress will pass a comprehensive health care bill that Obama will sign........and we will have all our medical bills paid by higher taxes on the rich.
Wait..there are enough rich people out there that "they" will pay all the freight on everything, aren't there?? Gee..I hope those rich folks don't move their businesses to some other country..and move there themselves. Gosh...we could end up in doo-doo..
Don't expect the dems to be analytical enough to even consider the second paragraph..they will stop thinking at the first.
fwiw..the short-term trend on the mid-cap index changed from neg to pos about an hour into trading. The indicators I use don't get whipped too often..but it's always a possibility. I believe in it enough that I went from cash to long. regards to all.
I was mostly kidding when I called Obama "an Arab" a week or so ago......but listen to Gadhafi..I hope this resonates with Israel, and American Jews. Obama is the Arabs "brother"????
“We expected his (Obama’s) change to mean that he will stand beside the Palestinian people, the besieged and the victims of injustice,” Gadhafi said, referring to Obama as “our brother, the Kenyan with American nationality.”
The Illinois Democrat’s father was Kenyan.
“Obama’s announcement that the unified Jerusalem should be the eternal capital of Israel and that he will support it with $30 billion during the next 10 years, has disappointed our hopes and that of the Africans,” Gadhafi said.
Gadhafi suggested that Obama should promise to give Africa the money Washington allocates to Israel to “build a dam on the Congo River to supply the whole African continent with power.”
Sammy.....yes..he is quite good. I haven't visited his web site much, but do read his public site a few times a week. I don't think he has gotten the recognition yet that will come.
Good trading to you..........and bring on any dirt about McCain or Obama..I imagine they will both be exposed in the campaign, and that there is plenty to expose on both sides.
The dirt on Mac is sorta old stuff that has been bounced around before during his Arizona campaigns and his run for the nomination in 2000.
If I were a dem, I would be nervous about Barack...he is largely unknown...there could be some shockers revealed..and he is running principally as a "different", "implied moral", candidate. I think the shock value might hurt him more than finding out that Mac took awhile to get his life back together after such a horrible ordeal. Regards.
What a hoot! That the dems should make an issue of ANYONES sexual or marriage ethics after their avid support of the dem who's morals are lower than a snake. You've got to be kidding. Lots of marriages break up....my guess is that Mac had a lot of mental baggage after 66 months as a POW, undergoing torture on a regular basis. No one has claimed he is a pure saint...but c'mon...now if he hits on the young female aides on his Senate staff..or women he meets on the road..etc., etc....then you have a story. But that would then be a story with precedence, wouldn't it. Sammy, I expected more even-handedness from you. I guess any of Obama's indiscretions that are uncovered are fair game, then??
Hey smartone...I agree with someones post that you are a nice guy. Your liberal reasoning is obscure, however. How does the elimination of a tax cut not equate to a raise in taxes? If the tax cut no longer exists, there will be more revenue raised in taxes, right? How does more revenue get raised if there is not a tax increase? Please reason around that one for me. Thanks.
CJ..thanks for the response. My computer is in my home office, and there is no danger of anyone with evil intent having access to it during the day. Sounds like I can stay logged in to IB for the day, without worrying about anyone accessing it through the net. That will save several logins during the day as I adjust orders. Thanks again.
Sammy, or anyone.....is there enough hacker security on the IB site that one can leave the personal account window open during the trading time..while accessing other sites on that same computer??
I am accustomed to closing out the Rydex site after trades..but IB seems to have more security...comments welcomed.
VP choices are always interesting..but in the end, the VP usually adds little to the ticket, and can be a big distraction.....see Eagleton, for instance.
Are there no Republican women governors among the states?
A woman would be nice for the ticket..but in the end it will be mano a mano between Mac and Obama.
Sammy..I was pretty sure that was what was meant..but one reason the Hillary comment on RFK assaination was so incindiary was that there is always the possiblity that a hate nut could take action. We'll hope that is not in our future.
You think the election will be a rout?? I think it will be close..especially as people get to know a genuine hero in McCain..also, if there are skeletons yet to be rattled out of closets, I expect more will come out of Obama's closet. He is still largely unknown..and who among the general electorate knew of the hatred of America commonly spewed in black churches? I think there will be some swift boat ads exposing some of the less savory parts of Baracks background. How much..and how inflammatory, remains to be seen.
But, in the end..if Obama is what is best for America, I will be content. Regards.
"looks like obama is going to kill bush 2 (mccain)" Sammy, do you mean that literally, or metaphorically??
I hope you simply mean that it is your belief that Obama will defeat McCain in the general election. There have already been far too many assinations of political leaders in this country.
Let the issues be fully discussed..let the personal attributes of the two candidates be fully explored..then pray that God will bless America that the electorate makes a wise decision in November..whichever is best for America is who I want..regardless of my personal political bias.