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ALL IT NEEDS TO DO IS......
to show any sequential revenue growth on the upcoming ER,from $600K(q1) to $660K(q2) revenue is my guess,hope that would do the trick.
I definitely appreciate the warnings from you all......
and it is all about management,management,and management.Charles has been there since 2012,I will be watching him closely and make sure he is non-toxic,a prerequisite before I become trigger happy.
it sounded like a "roach hotel"......
dealing with a selfish management,is one of the worst in my book.
very thankful for your insight....
from observing the company for many years.
why wade into a cesspool like DPDW?............
Got it.I would wait another Q and see whether things have changed for the better investor-wise.The write-off of $4+ million seemed a positive step and the $4+ million cash would buy them enough time for Charles to do a "no bullshit" transformation.Again,I am hopeful and my powder is dry.
newbie to the board........
is it time to bet on the company at this low price??Or another way of putting it,are challenges ahead too much for Charles to swallow??Thanks for your response ahead of time.
With his smart and money........
He is still at the mercy of Mother Nature and cursed by the black swan event of the pandemics.
The question becomes can the business model withstand the change/impact and de-risking assets and leverage are possible??If not,it is a fool's play,get out and take the losses.
evidence of a fool's play:
2q loss of $3-$4 million
3q loss of $2-$3 million
4q loss of $1-$2 million
or
2020 loss of $9-$12 million before the $1.6 ppp loan,likely to be forgiven.
er was out on 8/10/20 and I missed......
the top-line is lower than I hoped and it could be a long wait before revenue tops $500k,a level needed for the price to move.again,sit tight and wait until 11/15/20 for the next er.ouchhhhhhhh.
I am clueless about your concern.......
again,sit tight,wait and see what ER tell us.
more bad news.......
"NYC Hospitality Alliance surveyed about 500 owners and operators of eateries in the city, with 83% of respondents indicating they couldn't pay the entire rent in July while 37% paid no rent at all."
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/financially-devastated-83-nyc-restaurants-unable-pay-july-rent
The revenue(of ivfh) drop most likely continued from q2 into q3,and no end in sight.Will 10q be out before the meeting??If not,gaming the system and reverse split,are a terrible mix: prelude to ivfh shareholders stake destruction??
reflection:
when Pappas first involved,he paid around 60c;the last purchase he made,was around 29c.Just wonder what has gone thru his mind and can he kept his "cool" much longer????
my wild guess:
loss of $3-$4 million for q2.
yes...
the wind is behind their back.the big payoff is when csm approves/reimburses payment(of nmxs service) of medicare recipients.
sit tight......
it is all about the coming ER.
a guessing game what is in a black box......
Why AS Steel CEO was not retained and got let go so soon??My guess is LC wanted total control with his own people and he was totally confident his team can do it alone.A bad sign.
Another way to put it,if AK Steel was so good,why was the CEO not retained and let him do the heavy lifting with proper oversight,after all he knew the company(a complicated one saying the least) the best.
Implication:
Without the ex-CEO,the head of the snake so to speak,LC can shortcut any critical decision making without sizable push back: "check and balance rule" is out of whack within AK Steel organization and remotely controlled by the HQ.Highly probable and an ominous sign.
Who is the best analyst to bet on:
Who followed AK Steel in the past,most likely telling clients to short this son of the bitch,and have spoke to the ex recently.
Again,never under estimate the shorties:always prying,never hopeful,relentlessly seeking truth,and want your money.
down to $5.27.......
are we back yet?
or SG you better pray the central banks continue printing money...
and this is no bull shit.
my favorite LC snow job.......
"Rental car accounts for about 20% US production,deep discount,no future;our product focus/sell/go-in-to cars of quality demanded by consumers,so we have good profit.....we are working with Tesla and others..............."
Brushed off the impact of rental car in a Depression by blinking of an eye.
Sleight of hand: to quality and high margin,and profit.No mentioning of the headwind(and how to survive) in a crashed/challenging domestic car market.
Talking about tesla,what is this about other than a pure "bait and switch" and "false hope".
back ground:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/death-yard-where-rental-cars-go-die
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/hertz-bankruptcy-distressed-rental-car-market-hurts-us-automakers.html
"Are Americans Too Poor For New Cars? Older Vehicles Dominate Highways"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americans-too-poor-new-cars-older-vehicles-dominate-highways
my favorite and another black swan:
with major indebted auto makers
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/visualizing-worlds-most-heavily-indebted-companies
or
the scariest black swan is the interest rate jump,taking out the auto makers,plus the whole supply chain: you are as strong as your weakest link:
Rental car industry?
Car maker going belly up due to un-sustaining debt load??
Are Americans Too Poor For New Cars? Older Vehicles Dominate Highways???
My favorite:
"The Next Leg Down: The Top 10% Are About To Take A Hit"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-leg-down-top-10-are-about-take-hit
or
Is LC too optimistic(or scared of telling the truth) or just being an used car sale man to buy him more time??
it is hard to argue based on the positives or perceived positives only......
pushing the project to be finished before year end has its risk,just may be a bit more than LC can chew.I hope he realizes the risk and have a "relief valve",or he may go to retirement with a going away present of a big whimper.
ps-LC his behavior of taking things personal,that may challenge his control,can be the black swan event,as things are more and more out of his control.His explanation of dividend cut,specially the unnecessary remarks of the un-devoted investors,during 2 CC ago,are not a good sign.This latest CC,he sounded more like a salesman than ever before.A very bad sign.
or
any major acquisition,requires at least 2+ years to make it work and expect a bunch of hiccups along the way.It was always the last 1% completion that pull you back/down: expect the unexpected or un-expectable(Laurence Livermore).
excellent article and thanks.....
https://pennystocks.news/exclusive-interview-smoke-cartel-inc-reveals-remarkable-information-smkc/
my favorites:
Our new marketplace model has allowed us to scale back our internal operations, while at the same time expanding the number of products offered and delivering larger volumes of orders. Because we rely on our dropshipping partners to meet customer demand, we have been able to reduce our corporate office footprint and eliminate most of our in-house warehousing operations. This provided additional cost savings, even when our top line growth in 2020 is approaching 100% year-over-year.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Our marketplace model was in place at just the right time and we are now in a position to continue to build on what started as a risky strategy, but proved itself to be a very successful business model for our industry.$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Detailed Plan of Management:
Looking forward, we continue to add new products through additional dropshipping partners and on-board more products from some of the larger distributors. Our business is now focused on the following keys.
1 Continue to reach out to our existing customers through various social media platforms, while staying on top of the SEO metrics to ensure that new customers are finding our site for any of their online searches.
2 Manage our existing relationships with our dropshipping partners through constant communication to address issues while offering opportunities to improve their systems and make them more efficient in processing orders.
3 Identify new dropshipping partners to ensure that our mix of product offerings meets customers’ demands with the most useful and entertaining products available.
4 Continue to look for ways to make our own operations, as well as our partners’ operations, more efficient and streamlined which will allow us to maintain the efficiency gains we’ve already achieved.
A good plan,plus a clear and easily executable operation,plus a value-leverage-added marketing,plus a customer-center-focus: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$,highly probable.
it is easy to blame it on the pandemic........
"East Toledo iron plant on track to open next summer" date 10/19/2019
https://www.toledoblade.com/business/development/2019/10/09/developing-east-toledo-iron-manufacturing-plant-to-open-next-summer/stories/20191009144
it is another thing to claim "3 month ealier",a bit disingenuous and pompous.
Risk ahead of HBI startup/catch up:
What are the odds of 2nd/3rd waves of the virus??
Do things in a rush,how do you get around Thanksgiving holidays and Christmas Holidays??
The reason they tried to shoot for the summer opening because of the mild weather window so they can get more done,and concern for the safety of their contractors are met:how much work can you get done when the temperature/environment is in the teens??How safe is it when you are working few hundred feet above the ground???
Death of worker in q4,2020 and a complete halt of the HBI construction,and be put on the OHSA shit list for months???
ps-"saving grace" and "bull shit" do not mix well.
I got a feeling.....
HBI plant may not be ready until 1q 2021 at the earliest.Shooting for end of the year,is good optic and pr.
down to $5.37......
are we there(down) yet??
I believe we are likely to see $3-$4 than $10 first.
SMKC in a nutshell........
From 10q 2020:
Model-
to onboard new dropshipping partners, as well as expanding the product offerings from the existing dropshippers(sounds like Amazon without inventory).
Revenue-
"The primary cause for this(revenue) increase was a change in our business model that relies on most of our products being delivered directly from third-party dropshipping partners. This models allowed us to offer a wider offerings of products as well as avoiding out-of-stock notices as we were unable to replenish our own inventory during 2019 due to financial constraints.
The Company expects to continue to onboard new dropshipping partners, as well as expanding the product offerings from the existing dropshippers. If customers continue to come to our website and purchase a wide variety of product offerings, we expect our revenue growth to continue."
Cost-
"The decrease in gross profit margin is attributable to the expanded dropshipping model used by the Company. The Company expects that the lower gross profit margin will continue at this level, and the overall gross profit will increase as revenues increase due to the broader product offerings being sold to our customer base."
Expenses-
"Management expects to maintain these lower operating expenses during 2020 until such time as its revenue growth requires further investments in staffing to support the growth."
The interim CEO seems to know exactly what he is doing and it has worked last q.Will the progress continues in q2?That is the million dollar question,I believe it is highly likely as the transformation take holds.
not bad....
it broke a new high.will it break thru the dollar mark before the earning??likely.this baby it loaded.
a 2nd good sign.........
insider buying.Way past due,Papas just bought more shares
7/20/20 129252 shares @29.82c
7/20/20 7471 shares @29.82c
or
$40.7K
a bit on the lite side.
ooops
pushed the wrong buttons again and having trouble managing track pad of my new laptop.
additional progress made since 3q 2019.......
a new interim ceo/cfo,realist and a bottom-line-centric type of guy
business model transformation:revenue increase over gross margin expansion,no inventory,less(is more) sg&a,and more
.....
.....
and
the best part,as shown by q1 2020,the transformation has been working and resulted in a profitable quarter in q1 2020.A first confirmation of good things to come,highly probable.
Mr. Papa is no fool.....
he knew Sam was the problem and he had to go,not just when but how,as Papa gained initial influence/foothold of directorship in exchange for 1-2 years of "truce" with Sam.No one saw the pandemic coming,and it likely has a horrific impact,devastating the "marginal business model" pushed by Sam: no synergy,cost increase,s&ga increase,....and now no revenue growth in 2020,thanks to the pandemic,and as a matter of fact,likely be down -20% in q2,-10% in q3/q4.
my estimate of the 2020 losses excludes impairment charge:
q1 -2 million
q2 -2 to -4 million
q3 -2 million
q4 -2 million
before
offset by ppp loan.
2020 is not the issue anymore,but 2021 is:can the business model works beyond 2020+?25% maybe,as the bigger players are more cutthroat and squeezing the "high cost" player out of the market,particular those small players with NEGATIVE MARGIN.This is really bad and ominous.
I hope I am off on this one or coolhand wager is totally vulnerable and turned into a probable misadventure,not what I hope to see.Again,stay away(no $$$ down that is) from any selfish management that is likely to backfire,no money to be had,all grief,time wasted,and just not worth it.
Mr. Papa is no fool.....
he knew Sam was the problem and he has to go,not just when but how,as he gained initial influence of directorship in exchange for 1-2 years of "truce".No one saw the pandemic coming,and it likely has a horrific impact,devastating the "marginal business model" pushed by Sam: no synergy,cost increase,s&ga increase,....and now no revenue growth in 2020,thanks to the pandemic,and as a matter of fact,likely be down 20% in q2,10% in q3/q4.
my estimate of the 2020 loss excludes impairment charges:
q1 -2 million
q2 -2 to -4 million
q3 -2 million
q4 -2 million
and
offset by ppp loan.
2020 is not the issue anymore,but 2021 is:can the business model work beyond 2020+?25% maybe,as the bigger players are squeezing the "high cost" player out of the market.
I hope I am off on this one or coolhand wager is totally vulnerable and turned into a misadventure,not what I hope to see.Again,stay away from any selfish management.Its likely to backfire,no money to be had,all grief,and just not worth it.
Mr. Papa is no fool.....
he knew Sam was the problem and he has to go,not just when but how,as he gained initial influence of directorship in exchange for 1-2 years of "truce".No one saw the pandemic coming,and it likely has a horrific impact,devastating the "marginal business model" pushed by Sam: no synergy,cost increase,s&ga increase,....and now no revenue growth in 2020,thanks to the pandemic,and as a matter of fact,likely be down 20% in q2,10% in q3/q4.
my estimate of the 2020 loss excludes impairment charges:
q1 -2 million
q2 -2 to -4 million
q3 -2 million
q4 -2 million
and
offset by ppp loan.
2020 is not the issue anymore,but 2021 is:can the business model work beyond 2020+?25% maybe,as the bigger players are squeezing the "high cost" player out of the market.
I hope I am off on this one or coolhand wager is totally vulnerable and turned into a misadventure,not what I hope to see.Again,stay away from any selfish management.Its likely to backfire,no money to be had,all grief,and just not worth it.
Mr. Papa is no fool.....
he knew Sam was the problem and he has to go,not just when but how,as he gained initial influence of directorship in exchange for 1-2 years of "truce".No one saw the pandemic coming,and it likely has a horrific impact,devastating the "marginal business model" pushed by Sam: no synergy,cost increase,s&ga increase,....and now no revenue growth in 2020,thanks to the pandemic,and as a matter of fact,likely be down 20% in q2,10% in q3/q4.
my estimate of the 2020 loss excludes impairment charges:
q1 -2 million
q2 -2 to -4 million
q3 -2 million
q4 -2 million
and
offset by ppp loan.
2020 is not the issue anymore,but 2021 is:can the business model work beyond 2020+?25% maybe,as the bigger players are squeezing the "high cost" player out of the market.
I hope I am off on this one or coolhand wager is totally vulnerable and turned into a misadventure,not what I hope to see.Again,stay away from any selfish management.Its likely to backfire,no money to be had,all grief,and just not worth it.
when it rains,it pours.....
"why the 3rd quarter US GDP would falter–and lead to a W-shape recovery"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-lies-ahead
a hit on the restaurants and their suppliers??100% certainty.
Houston: we have a 2nd problem..........
"US Restaurant Recovery Stalls As Pandemic Reemerges"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/restaurant-reservations-stalling-across-america-coivd-returns
million dollar question: will q3 follow q2(devastated by the pandemic)?90% likely(in the bag) for the q2,and 50%+ likely(in the bag again) for q3.The odds of a bad outcome "in the bag" looks real ugly.
q2:
can it top -$2.0+ million?90%.
q3:
can it top -$2.0+ million again??50%+.
then what in q3 2020?
shares reverse split,secondary offering and dilution galore.ooouuuuccchhhhhh.
first good sign........
annual meeting scheduled on 8/18/20 and investors get to submit question,just maybe get answered.if ER is released on 8/14/20 prior to the call,then Sam is serious;if not,same old same old.
a newbie to the board...........
can things get worse?can price drop below 1c??can the f**kup continue???
perception says yes to all and the stock price reflect that 100%.
risk/reward:
just too attractive if it can pull it off from the abyss.
a little positive step:
instead of more dilution galore,up to 50%+,at 5c or less,the company decided to do payment on the $500K+ convertible,under the agreed forbearance agreement.A great use of the capital for the interest of the management and its shareholders.a win-win for both.
the company has $325k=$200k(cash) + $125K(ppp) or ample amount to cover payment and buy time needed for recovery.
next ER:
if it can break even again like the last q,this dog with flea may able to stage a comeback.
when the future is uncertain....
the return on investment can be huge if you bet correctly and taking a long view.clf could be the next high flyer,but it may be later than sooner.we should have some clarity after the next ER.
where are the shorts???
out to lunch.had i my ass kicked again.no beer weekend money this weekend.ouccchhhhh.mommmmyyyyyyyyy.
it was self-serving at best and absolutely unnecessary to go 100% dark.....
and before motivation is known,i got the chance to add my position in glgi,and betting it would outperform syev in a matter of 2 quarters,using target price of 10c for an unlikely case of buyout of syev.
Cari did a form 15 on me.....
absolutely no communication,thus i am out and liquidating my stock.
are we back yet????
big decision on beer money tomorrow
highly probable:
domestic beer
probable:
custom draft beer
possible:
no money,go dry again.ouuccchhhhhh.