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Just look at the problems in Europe, it is not over yet, you have Portugal and Spain next to default, yet the market was up big. The initial claims and continued claims have increased, yet the market was up big. Today's unemployment no is 9.8 from 9.6 and job creations are pitiful and yet the market barely falls. If this is not manipulation, I don't know what it is? Reverse optimism? A descending triangle breaking to the up side while the Fed's printing money? This has to be a first. Never mind talks about extending tax cut for the middle class. Think about it, Ben's QE I, II, III...are the biggest tax increase in American history. Your dollar is worth a nickel by the time it is all over. The only reason the dollar has a temporary rise is because of the falling Euros with the problems in Europe. If the Euros keep falling Ben has to do QE to the nth degree and eventually the dollar will be worth less than toilet paper.
2bit
I can set targets but just about given up on dates.
2bit
That is quite alright, I can see the frustration trading this market. You can only keep your trades from 3 to 7 days at most. I thought I changed my statement from crash to sell. If it makes you feel better, I have puts going into Dec 1 and of course I took a hit but then I took the loss and went long. Don't bend on one direction, this break out is obvious for long initiations. With so much manipulation in the market one has to switch quickly. Position trader was wrong, Terry's T theory was wrong and just about anybody who does longer term forecast is wrong. You cannot see further than a couple of days in these murky markets. Anybody who gives you a long term forecast is BS. The down leg was from Nov10 to Dec1 and this is another up leg. Targets are 558, 564, 576 and 584 and don't expect it to go up in a straight line. As long as it is above 538 (this number changes everyday) it is up...
2bit
Not to worry Nickel,
Over the years, I have been with many boards and I have come to the conclusion that others' opinions shouldn't bother me. Say whatever you want.
If you think Crash is too much, then take a Sell. This is my 9th trade of the year (with small scraps in between). I just think it should be a sell and the 10th trade should be a buy sometimes in Dec. I can't say if it is imminent or not. I do pattern recognition and this is a sell pattern. There are many things to consider such as Gold, Dollar, Oil etc but in the final analysis they end up in a pattern.
2bit
HSKAX,
My statistical analysis of HSKAX shows that we are exactly at the same conditions as of May 5.
If you want a second opinion, you can find it here..
http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/
I don't think I have to take a hike as some may suggest.
Rather, I will stick around to short the market.
Good luck
2bit
Crash alert
eom
this is such a dead board, ain't going to waste my time here. good luck all
2bit
Although NDX got its first TSS but OIH has broken out of its channel, the market will not come down much.....
2bit
I am out of sll shorts, dollar down , oil and gold up..and will lead the market higher...
2bit
Desert,
not trying to be nasty here, but this is most often a trader's irrationale..."I think it is confirmed" and "The question we will have to confirm elsewhere is how far it will retreat and will this be a reversal for the market or just a consolidation"
it is not confirmed yet, need one more push down...
2bit
Good show and yes will see, NDX should go to at least 1909 and more....
2bit
Yes, will do, we need one more push down to firm the down trend. Interesting observation, money flow and vix, were you able to validate the relationship going back to prior years??
2bit
Thanks, Desert,
Today as expected is the first sign of trend change, hold your shorts, more down side to come...ya should at least go to OEX 500 and lower, another 200-300 Dow points down. I am riding them until my price action says buy....
2bit
Desert,
Sorry, did not reply in time, I left the market after the last post. As I mentioned before I don't look at charts except for entry and exit times.
The market is now similiar to Apr 16, it will either drop Monday or sideways for a week or so. But it would not go much higher. OEX 500ish is the next target.
2bit
CME is leading indicator for the market decline. I am going to walk away from looking at the market and not look at my PUTS till next week
2bit
SHORT
2bit
OEX 495 NDX 1890 by Oct17...a 500 Dow points down...
2bit
la bonne journée, où avez-vous été ?
Thanks, almost forgotten about Bradley, so it will be down to Oct25th. Ya, I plan to short again after the ISM no., if bad, it will be all out short, sell your house and short. The first sign of trend change has already been out today. Any OEX strike price is good as long as it is not more than 30 points off. Don't know about Astro. This board is quiet but is more civilized.
2bit
Looking at the data today, tomorrow, the coffin will probably be nailed. One thing is advancing/declining issues show the uninformed were still buying but the big boys will pull the rug underneath them starting soon.
2bit
Thanks, Bob, Normally, I would leave my puts around, unfortunately, the market gaps are jerking me around too much.
I rather short on rallies every day. This morning's gap was a perfect example, strong guts to hold to the end...
2bit
It is all OEX which is the most technical index on earth for it encompasses oil, finance, nasdaq and the dow. No individual stocks for I think the indices are fairer.
2bit
Desert,
It is a very long story. Took a few years to develop and back test and will take a two week course to show. It is all statistics, mathematics and physics. Don't want to sound cocky here but I can tell what I see from time time.
2bit
Closed my shorts. market falls to in between s1/s2. enough for the day. I don't want to gamble ISM no. tomorrow. if bad then all in shorts after 10 am tomorrow.
2bit
Nothing is perfect, conviction is most important, and strong guts. I only use TA for entries and exits. I have my own spreadsheets to do smoothing and forecasting on price action and if they converge, it always falls never fails...
2bit
Bob,
are you shorting now or still waiting, I shorted OEX which is just as good as NDX. Always wanted to play NDX options but they are so expensive and volatility is so high and I don't want a heart attack.
2bit
Thank you Desert, very nice charts and analyses, I just concentrate on price action and NASDAQ is screaming short now but your idea is an eye opener. Today gaps higher and closes lower, if it is not a top, I don't know what a top is..
2bit
POMO should be finished just about now...
2bit
Agree with your analysis. The price actions of OEX and NDX are approaching wedge formations and the last time it was a sever drop that followed. Holding onto my Puts and may add later. Give it a couple more days
2bit
Today is a repeat of Aug10 and you know what happened next. I am in shorts. Do expect tomorrow's GDP to be anemic and all it takes is bad claim nos (high probability) to take the market down. Yes, POMO tomorrow, but screw Helicopter Ben. He is taking America to the dumpster. My only concern is Friday's ISM, but hopefully I will be out by then. Will soon see.
By the way, does anybody follow CME, it is a good option play and it follows/leads the market well, by its prediction (if any) the market will be down... and NDX is a screaming short...
Today is just the stinging oil that kept the market afloat..
2bit
Anybody in shorts?
2bit
Bob & Beer,
I guess you are both right. My take is whatever gains tomorrow will dissipate by the close for Thursday is claim nos. day again and people are afraid of another bad set of numbers, but by Friday, it will depend on the all important ISM no. if good it will rally to 1170 at least else the market will tank to complete the bigger turning H&S.
Do you folks follow the chart pattern trader? I have not for a while but seems refreshing when taking a peek again, TTheory and Carl Futia are both bogus....
The following is a comment from Cobra today
"I wonder if you still remember the setup for the last 2 trading days of each month since August 2009? Today actually should be an up day, so no surprise. Now let’s see if the rest part plays out: Sell short at today’s close and cover before 09/30 close, your odds of winning something WERE 12 out of 13."
2bit
Block sell off for SPY and DIA and block buy for SDS at eod...wonder what they know... the market really is toppy here...
I guess my sixth sense tells me may be a top is developing with up/down/up/down...bulls fighting bears...any thoughts?
2bit
what do you think of the market folks, it refuses to come down even in light of lousy Consumer Confidence data, may be monthend has something to do with it??
2bit
Hey, I was in that locker many times before, and it forces me to day trade..the gap up and down business was killing me...
2bit
Desert,
I am just glad I closed my shorts yesterday. This market is nut, one day up, the next down. I need to rethink...no trades today...
2bit
I did not exactly follow the rules in the first one, after four days (a must), for sell, it has to rise above the 20day high, to get an entry. It didn't when I placed the first TSS trade, the NBE statement screwed me royally. but after that,all conditions were satisfied for a TSS. There was an intraday TSS today but at the close it was eradicated. The trick is to place trailing stop to ride the down trend, this is mainly for trading futures. But option is a different story...just short on rallies...the trend is down until it isn't.
2bit
Down trend confirmed...next target OEX 503 then 494....
2bit
There were actually 2 sets of TSS, I got burnt by the first, but shorted it again today and closed out....the first sign of down trend is out....tomorrow Order goods no. if bad, I will short it again....seems like safer to day trade it now...
2bit
Desert,
Very good, if OEX breaks 510..not good, it would be deemed failure of the inverse H&S
2bit