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MBI behaved today. eom
(Dow Jones) Microsoft (MSFT) revealed "critical" flaws in its near-ubiquitous Windows operating system late Wednesday that could allow hackers to do alarming things like alter data stored in computers, load and run nefarious programs and reformat hard disks. To eliminate eight serious bugs at issue, it urged Windows' millions of users to download a new version of Windows' Java handler, Microsoft Virtual Machine. (RTR)
Joe
WM- Short op on home lending concerns. Bank has had large home llending growth. Think those numbers will be greatly challenged going ahead. Watching to start a core short position play. Jan 37.50 itm puts look interesting.
Joe
Another huge spike in the tick. Don't seem to be getting much for their buck today. That , my friends, is the PPT at work.
Joe
One-minute nas tick? You can find it here real time. (not the one I use but it works)
http://finance.lycos.com/home/livecharts/default.asp
Symbol is tick.nq. Change minutes to 1. Nas trin is trin.nq
FWIW, Joe
Yep. Looks like they are pushing. Big spike in the one-minute nas tick. Nice paint job.
Joe
UAL- So much for tax loss selling for by the end of the year for big holders.
DJ Major UAL Shareholders Restricted From Selling Shares>UAL
By Sonoko Setaishi Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--UAL Corp. (UAL), operating under bankruptcy-court protection since Monday, has secured a court order restricting large shareholders, including its employee-owners, from unloading their holdings at least until the month's end.
The order, designed to help the world's second-largest carrier make use of certain tax provisions, in effect leaves trading of UAL stock in the hands of small investors and speculators. Such players often cause large swings in the share price of a company in Chapter 11.
There was a sign that the order was already giving a boost to UAL shares by preventing the major holders from selling the shares. The stock rose sharply Thursday, recently trading up 28 cents, or 23.1%, at $1.49. The share price more than doubled from a 52-week low of 64 cents reached Monday.
The court order, which took effect Tuesday, prohibits purchases, sales and other transfers of UAL equity interests by anyone who owns 2.5 million or more common shares. It also prohibits transfers of claims by anyone owning $65 million or more in claims against the company. The order will remain in effect until a Dec. 30 court hearing to reconsider the appropriateness of the relief.
Such an order "would normally increase the value of the stock short-term" by reducing the number of shares available for buyers and forcing them to bid the stock higher, said Marty Zohn, partner at law firm Proskauer Rose LLP in New York who isn't involved in UAL's Chapter 11 proceedings but follows the company's ESOP.
UAL spokesman Jeff Green said the order applies to the company's employee stock ownership plan, which has been selling a big chunk of its holdings since September to help the employee-owners preserve what's left of their nest eggs. UAL employees had received 55% of the company through a 1994 ESOP, but the fiduciary bank, State Street Corp.'s (STT) State Street Bank and Trust, had sold more than a third of that stake through last Friday.
As a result of the court order, "the ESOP and other large shareholders are forced to ride the market down," because shares of most companies in Chapter 11 ultimately become worthless during the proceedings following some gyrations along the way, Zohn said.
UAL's Green declined to comment on the order's impact on the ESOP, except to say that the purpose of the order is to preserve the company's net operating losses, which give UAL certain tax advantages.
"Net operating losses are one of our biggest assets. Obviously we want to preserve assets," Green said.
FOMC meeting minutes out at 2:00. FWIW eom
From OI. The XAU remains strong (higher by 6.16%), the dollar continues to trade weak (104.53), and the Sox is right back at its trend line and could easily roll over from here. Even the 30-year is edging back up to its daily high of 111'02 (currently at 111) and reversed nicely from the 110'10 low. This should not be positive for stocks heading into the last few hours.
OptionInvestor.com
PNF chart for XAU. Thought it of interest. Hopefully this link works.
http://www.optioninvestor.com/charts/dec02/index.asp?image=121202_1100_01
>>>QUESTION.....ek dividend date is Dec 13. If I buy it today, do I get the $.45 a share tomorrow?<<<
Technically you do but you won't receive the funds till the payable date.
JAN NATGAS UP 28.1C AT $4.99 AFTER 20-MO HIGH AT $5.01
JAN CRUDE UP 50C AT $27.90/BRL AFTER $27.94 HIGH
Could see some positive action from the power producers.
FERC Staff Support Calif Power Suppliers On Contracts
By Mark Golden Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff, who are to testify Thursday and Friday at a hearing on the validity of California's long-term electricity contracts, have sided strongly with the energy companies.
California, according to the FERC staff's pretrial brief, has failed to make its case in several ways. It's not enough for the state to show that the contract prices are unjust and unreasonable, the staff said in the brief, filed Nov. 25. The state must instead show that the contracts are contrary to the public interest under the more burdensome standard known as the "Mobile-Sierra doctrine," established by the U.S. Supreme Court in the 1950's.
Moreover, the state hasn't shown that the dysfunctional spot market of 2001, when the long-term contracts were signed, adversely affected the long-term market. Nor has the state shown that its buyer, the California Department of Water Resources, was the victim of unequal bargaining power.
>>>So howz your investment in EP doing?<<<
I know you were not asking me but I've been in and out of EP also. It has been a fairly good money maker for me. Albeit risky I have found it profitable to trade around a core position with covered calls and a dividend. Not as exciting as tech or gold but not a bad holding with fairly good fundies.
Joe
>>>....i should have much more buying power than i do today<<
Could be due to unmarginable stocks. I had a stock (RRI)that went from something like $1.10 to 2.50. My buying power kept going down as it went up. Think the problem was that it was a bigger percentage of my total portfolio (or that's how it was explained to me) causing my margin availibility to get skewed.
I don't know why...I just work here. <VBG>
Joe
The Big Three manufacturers -- Ford (F: news, chart, profile), General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) and DaimlerChrysler (DCX: news, chart, profile) -- are facing 90 days' or more worth of domestic new-car inventory, compared to about 60 days' worth this time last year, experts said.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD7F9AF50%2D952E%2D4799%2D945E%2DB0C5D464952F%7D&am...
>>I agree with Sinclair (who has been very good) that a breakout to new highs is likely to occur soon. <<
I did see that prior to Christmas but now I'm not so sure . I think the Fed would have liked to see us there by now. The additional buying is not there. Instead of the masses buying a new recovery it appears that they are selling into the artificial strength. I think if the Fed was accomplishing it's goals, bonds would not be so strong, nor gold. WE had some strong buying programs yesterday and for the most part they were sold.
The other thing the market needs is some leadership. I'm not seeing much leadership here. All sectors seem to be under some kind of pressure. We need leadership for a breakout.
Joe
Sylvester, Nice trading on the q's today. eom
EP- repeat. Interesting trade in my opinion. Jan 7.50's are selling for .80. Stock is at 7.80 and selling for 43% of book. Volume of over 4,000 on those 7.50's today alone.
Just an idea.
>>>WMT because retail sales report is tomorrow morning.<<
I think KSS may be a good play tomorrow short.
Joe
>>Bonds still signaling "I don't want any part of equity risk".
<<
Good point. Bond money is usually the smarter money. Bonds are keeping very bearish on equities. Bonds and stocks both being bought. One has to give.
Joe
VASO- >>>Love the product. <<< Hopefully not from personal use.
>>> just hope I'm still young enough to enjoy the rewards.<<<
Maybe with their product it will give you some extra time.
Joe
Just had another 1 minute miracle buy program hit at 1:00 on the nas. Went from -360 to +138. Looks like it's not working. Too much selling pressure for the time being as that tick did not hunt.
Joe
>> see the same battle in AMAT as yesterday.<<<
Yep. I'm just so amazed that the PPT is in the market so strongly. They are doing everything they can to push this sucker up for Christmas. Do you see that big burst at 12:30. Nas nms tick 1-minute chart went from -280 to a +530. That's a huge change in sentiment in a one minute time frame and very "unnatural". And, look at when it came. Just as the nas was taking out the 10:54 highs. JMO
VASO- Anyone interested in this stock. I kind of like the "story" for a longer term hold. News out today. No position.
Joe
>>anyone have an opinion as to why INTC not in the game this am??<<
Because INTC said last night the the semi-conductor industry isn't showing much signs of a rebound as of yet. In WallStreet wisdom they took this news as being stock specific. <VBG>
Mlsoft, Looks to me to be artificial. Don't see why someone would buy like that at the open and drive the price up almost $2.00. I think it is to show some support after that report out Monday or, a Livermore move where some one will buy 300,000 plus shares to drive the price in to draw in buyers, then, sell twice as much at the new higher levels. Of course it could run high. That's what makes this "fun". Has now traded at near the daily average volume.
Joe
MBI- Added some at 45.48 short. Strange activity here. Someone pushed this thing higher this am. Any ideas Mlsoft?
Joe
MBI- Short at 45.00. Big block (342,700 @ 45.00) to the upside at open. Maybe...someone one wants out at higher prices. I see no news for the move or why the gap. Any ideas?
Joe
These numbers coming from the mortgage bankers are telling of the homebuilding industry. Homebuilding drives our economy. What the mortgage activity may be telling us is that a recession may lie ahead. Usually this type of slowing activity comes at much higher rates. To see this kind of drop off that we have seen trending for several weeks can not be good for any type of rebound. Coupled with slow spending for the holidays, we are starting to see additional ingredients for harder times ahead for 1H2003.
Homebulider's earnings are near peak in my opinion. Reading through several 10Q's over the last year I see that earnings have been given an additional boost by financing activities and higher prices leading to higher profit margins. I got to think we will see those gains level off and drop soon. Homebuilders I like short are HOV, RYL, CTX and KBH. I also think MTG and MHK are good short plays for a downturn in housing.
Would be interested in any other ideas.
Joe
[YHOO] YAHOO SAYS JOB CUTS ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO BE MATERIAL
[YHOO] YAHOO CUTS WORKERS IN DALLAS, ATLANTA, LONDON
Paul, Thanks for the reply. Good post. I don't see that many post about the PPT and real time trading. What I see more are post from the non-believers and us that are trying to defend our beliefs that the PPT exist and influencing the markets.
I agree, maybe some use the excuse too often for any move in the markets that go against them. However, maybe there is some credibility to that as the PPT appears to enter the market as some have said, "at just right time". Even 100 year old, or so, Richard Russell has implied an acknowledgement of their presense. Coming in to the market at just the right time is that time when some of us traders thought we saw the "foe sure" winning trade in the past. Times when you sit back and have to ask ourself,"why is anyone of size buying (selling) here?"
As I have mentioned, the Nas NMS tick is the closest thing for me to the holy grail for daytrading. I mostly daytrade QQQ's, INTC, AMAT and MSFT. I like them because they tend to trade with the market. That way I get a number of confirmations before I enter a trade. If I feel good about the market direction then I move to more volatile issues like NVLS, KLAC, CSCO, CCMP. About two years ago I started noticing unusual buying patterns at "just the right time" to save the market or the trend. Once I somewhat got a handle on what was going on, the PPT steping in, my trading results improved. Once I acknowledged their power I was able to use their presense to my advantage. I now have another piece of the puzzle. I know now to step aside or try to play their game their way.
Joe
Paul, The PPT is real. The PPT is as much of the market as a FOMC meeting, INTC's next earnings report or major support/resistance lines. Once you recognize it you can trade around it like any other market moving event or indicator. In my opinion, the identification and posting that they are active is valuable information.
Joe
Just amazing! Watching the tape I can't get over the support that someone (PPT) is throwing at the market to try to get the indexes up. This is going to end badly one of these days unless they can get someone to buy for real. If only J6P really knew what was going on. This is crazy.
Joe
MTG- Continues to drift lower.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mtg,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
Joe
SM, Thanks for posting the the MBI report. I would expect that conditions are similar at ABK. I thought this exceprt was interesting.
>>>MBIA recently disclosed the date of execution and original ratings of the underlying
credits it has guaranteed through credit derivative transactions. We asked three of the
most active dealers in the credit derivatives market to provide mid-market quotes to price
transactions of comparable vintage and rating to MBIA’s CDO portfolio. One of the
dealers elected not to provide quotes. The two other dealers provided market quotes, but
required that we keep their identities anonymous.
Because CDOs are pools of diversified corporate credits and because MBIA participated
in numerous CDO transactions each year, the company’s credit exposure is likely to be
sufficiently diversified so that their values can be approximated by this admittedly
simplistic approach.
Based on these dealers’ quotes, we estimate MBIA’s mark-to-market losses to be
approximately $5.3 billion to $7.7 billion, i.e., from nearly 100% to over 140% of
MBIA’s total equity capital.<<<
>>>High Leverage. Compared with other AAA rated companies, MBIA is unusual
for its high degree of leverage. At September 30, 2002, MBIA’s $5.5 billion of
shareholders’ equity supported $764 billion of outstanding guarantee liabilities
(net par and interest), a ratio of liabilities to equity of 139 to 1. Even when
compared with the company’s $483 billion of net par insured, MBIA is leveraged
nearly 88 to 1. MBIA has been able to achieve a AAA rating despite its
enormous leverage because of the perceived high quality of its guarantee
portfolio, its long track record of minimal reported losses, its modest on-balance
sheet leverage, and the fact that the rating agencies believe that MBIA is not
exposed to accelerating guarantees and has no short-term debt.<<
ABK- Closed down 2.5% on slightly above average volume. Did close below both the 20 and 50ema. In the same family as MBI and MTG. Look at the high red volume spikes. I have a position trade short. Selling at near 8 times sales. MBI is at 5.3 times sales and MTG at 2.8.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=abk,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]....
Joe
CTAS- Down 3.3% on average volume. Uniform company. Less workers less uniforms, right? Sitting on 50ema which has been good support. I'm looking for a break down through the 50ema. If it does, I think it could easily go to the lower 40's. No position but may tomorrowin anticpation of a break. PE of 36 and price to sales of 3.6. looks expensive to me. I was wrong about this one last time I posted about it but i think I will be right eventually.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ctas,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9....
Joe
MHK- Down 3% today on above average volume. Downside volume has been strong last 5 days although market volume has been light. Good short play on the building material industry IMO. I have a position trade short.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=mhk,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]....
Joe
What is the Difference Between Stabilization and Manipulation?
Answer = Your Perspective
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/editorials/2002/1206.htm
Good , good essay. A must read. Excerpt below- link above:
"Those that are able to observe the actual cash and exchange trading in currencies, metals and equity spread know beyond a doubt that an entity other than investors and brokers is in the market leaning hard against the direction that the market has taken. I will identify that presence later in this editorial.
Those that argue that there is no manipulation in the gold, currency and equity markets either do not have the facilities to actually see the transactions as they occur or have a perspective which would simply define a legal presence in the market as proper day-to-day activities."