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Me too @ 25.60. Stopped out at 25.56 for .10 loss on last trade. PPT alive and active this am. But, figure they need a rest here soon.
Joe
Just had a nice fat buy program hit here. Was going to cover early but think i'll just let my stops take me out on my QQQ's.
Joe
EP- Looking good. up 8%. eom
Seems we have a divergence in the nas tick and the nas. Short QQQ @25.46. stop at 25.56.
Joe
DJ KB Home:13% Of Customers Received Down-Payment Assistance
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--KB Home (KBH) said about 13% of its customers purchased houses through down-payment assistance programs for the year ended Nov. 30, according to a Form 8-K filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Doug Noland addressed this issue this weekend.
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp
Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/10/02
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.
S&P 500
Commercials added 2,000 long contracts and 16,000 shorts, leading
to a 30% increase in the net short position. Small traders took
the opposite approach, leaving the net long position unchanged,
while reducing shorts by 9,000 contracts.
Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI
11/19/02 446,668 480,270 (33,602) (3.6%)
11/26/02 447,024 488,250 (41,226) (4.4%)
12/03/02 444,345 487,411 (43,066) (4.6%)
12/10/02 446,831 503,583 (56,752) (5.9%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/19/02 143,070 77,332 65,738 29.8%
11/26/02 155,975 81,962 74,013 31.1%
12/03/02 162,192 82,584 79,608 32.5%
12/10/02 162,115 71,505 90,610 38.8%
Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
NASDAQ-100
Commercials saw a small gain to the long side, but left shorts
virtually unchanged. Small traders increased long positions by
1,300 contracts, while slightly reducing the short side.
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
11/19/02 42,074 52,302 (10,228) (10.7%)
11/26/02 43,231 52,425 ( 9,194) ( 9.6%)
12/03/02 43,709 51,977 ( 8,268) ( 8.6%)
12/10/02 44,651 51,716 ( 7,065) ( 7.3%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/19/02 16,292 10,540 5,752 21.4%
11/26/02 17,574 12,329 5,245 17.5%
12/03/02 13,749 9,869 3,880 16.4%
12/10/02 15,026 9,242 5,784 23.8%
Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/02
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials maintained the status quo, with no significant
changes to positions. Small traders followed suit, making only
slight reductions to both the long and short side.
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
11/19/02 23,535 15,741 7,794 19.8%
11/26/02 20,499 15,015 5,484 15.4%
12/03/02 20,176 15,427 4,749 13.3%
12/10/02 19,953 15,759 4,194 11.7%
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/19/02 4,428 8,203 (3,775) (29.9%)
11/26/02 6,544 10,350 (3,806) (22.5%)
12/03/02 5,885 9,781 (3,896) (24.9%)
12/10/02 5,394 9,499 (4,105) (27.6%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01
Chart of Dow Jones, Daily
>>Chrysler's comment: more baloney.<<<
Please explain. Are you saying you think things will be better than what Chrysler said they will be? Was it the market share comment?
Joe
>>I will hold the puts for an extended period of time as long as I almost own them for free.<<<
Please explain "free". If you are talking very OTM puts I think odds are against you. That's why they are cheap. In addition, if you are talking "extended" period of time holdings it would seem to me that you would not be so much a fan of the "let's not talk about tomorrow- trade what you see" crowd.
Joe
>>>The fact is, though, that predictions for time frames measured in months, even weeks, are always going to be less dependable than those measured in minutes and hours...plain and simple.
Sandy, I agree. However, I think daytrading is just part of some of our portfolio's and the longer term discussion is helpful for managing those portfolio's. I know in my case I have a trading account that I daytrade. I have a business account that I do position trades. Then my wife and I each have SEP accounts and we each have rollover IRA's from previous 401K's, etc. I also have a back-up trading account.(In addition, I manage several other accounts that I'm not allowed to daytrade as these clients want more conservative investing.) If you have any kind of portfolio of size at all, personally I can't see how you could Daytrade the whole thing. In my case, for my total portfolio I would be daytrading 7 accounts just for my own stuff. I would think that most individuals have a least two account, a investment/trading account and an IRA.
That brings up another point here. I much more enjoy the swing trades and position trade ideas thrown out here. Although I don't daytrade trade all my accounts I, I am always looking daily for new ideas for them. Daytrades are ok but I just have time to follow someone elses in addition to mine. Trading what you see works to a point but I also think most traders have a need to be looking out in to the unknown some too.
Joe
COLLISION SENDS BMWS, VOLVOS, SAABS TO SEA FLOOR
SHIP SINKS IN ENGLISH CHANNEL WITH 2,900 LUXURY CARS
New inventory control procedures in place I see.
Help. Someone posted the real unemployment numbers yesterday. Can someone direct me to the poster or a link where I may be able to find those numbers.
TIA, Joe
>>For the T/A guys, is this a double bottom at 1367 from last week's low?<<
1367 did not hold but here is what OptionInvestor said earlier.
>>To me, it is extremely suspicious that the Nasdaq took out the low on December 9th by only one point. This is normally a bullish indication, since this 'one-point' new low will at times trigger sell programs and get traders hoping for the big sell-off; only to trap them in the process. It is interesting that the Nasdaq falls 2% and can be looked at as bullish, while the Dow falls 0.92% and could easily fall another 60 points before finding bids. There certainly seems to be a good number of shorts that could get squeezed if the markets begin to turn around.
Amazing, AMZN hasn't moved off of 22.25-22.27 in the last 20 some odd minutes. There it goes...22.24
Joe
George, RRI- You're in the money now. Why wait to buy?
Joe
>>>amazon green.. disgusting<<<Flight to quality! lol!
FWIW, This was on Option Investor.com yetsterday. >>>>
Teaser Ads - Don't you just hate those teaser ads you get by email that tell you of this fantastic company that is poised to explode and return you +10,000 percent if only you jump on it today? I probably get at least five a day. They won't tell you who the company is unless you sign up for their service.
I got one this morning and I am sure many of you got it also. The headline was "Cure for West Nile Virus, Eradication of Bioterrorism and a safe gain of +43% per year for the next three years all by simply investing in this one company.
The email went on to say why this company would benefit from everything from the coming war to vaccinating cows in Texas. I will just net the 2000 words down for you. Smallpox vaccine and West Nile Virus vaccine. Nearly $500 million of government contracts and $1.2 billion in the pipeline. The catch was the very low public profile because they are based overseas BUT lucky for us they trade on the Nasdaq. After reading the 15 page email (no kidding) I decided to find the company. A little research and I found it to be Acambis (ACAM). Now for the price of putting up with a boring day on the market monitor and in the markets you have the benefit of knowing who this blockbuster company is without having to lift a finger. Here is the summary that the other company built their email campaign on. Link I am not suggesting that this is a buy but they do have a lot of potential in the pipeline. Good luck!
RRI- New hod. eom
KSS short looking good. Got Dec 65 puts. Going to take my profits before close. May buy some January itm puts
Joe
>>> I pay higher commission on my Schwab account, but in the long run I think I've saved money on better executions.<<<
Amen! Better availability of shorts too. Very little down time especially in a fast market. My back up account is at E-trade. Best thing they did is send me to the Stones concert.
Joe
Forget the Christmas rally. Maybe some good cheer during Christmas week but I think that will be it. Too many time bombs out there. Besides, the only upside we have seen the last few weeks has been manufactured. I don't think big money is willing to keep quite and be that supportive.
Another thing. Another terrorist hit is a real concern. Scares the hell out of me. I don't want to be too long when it hits because the door won't be wide enough to get out with out a bunch of pain. Carrying longs over a weekend is very risky in my opinion.
Just a thought. Joe
Added some MIR to core position. eom
Joe
Merchant Energy Shrs -3: Bankruptcy Risk Seen Reduced
AES completed a $500 million tender offer for two near-term securities issues and negotiated a new $1.6 billion bank credit facility on late Thursday, narrowly avoiding having to meet $300 million in maturities next week.
In a research note Friday, analyst Chris Ellinghaus at Williams Capital Group Equity said, "In our view, AES' successful refinancing proves that the banks and creditors are willing to work with the distressed companies to restructure to the satisfaction of both creditors and equity holders." He added that the company's cash flow and liquidity seemed enough to carry it through the next two years.
While AES had to extend the expiration date of its exchange offer multiple times over a 10-day period in order to reach the minimum requirements for the tender, Ellinghaus told Dow Jones Newswires that wasn't uncommon, as tenders are usually difficult.
"Those debt holders are also pretty reasonable. They didn't come away with nothing either," he said. "They got bonuses for tendering and got significantly higher interest rates, plus they got security, secured notes in exchange for unsecured ones."
He said he believed the banks and debt holders were showing their willingness to work with beleaguered energy firms by allowing for extensions, rollovers and waivers of collateral triggers.
Ellinghaus said he owns AES stock but that he's not aware of any investment banking Williams Capital has done with AES.
While he wouldn't guarantee there wouldn't be any bankruptcies in the sector, he said it certainly wouldn't be the six to eight the market had been expecting.
DJ Prudent Bear Holds 10.66% Of Western Copper >T.WTC
VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Western Copper Holdings Ltd. (T.WTC) said in a news release that it has received an "early warning report" from Prudent Bear Funds Inc. stating that two mutual funds managed by Prudent Bear Funds (the Prudent Bear Fund and Safe Harbour Fund) now hold a total of 3,345,400 common shares of Western, or 10.66%.
>>>max pain for the qqq? how do I look it up?<<<
I dfon't know why you would want to but here is the link.
http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl
RYL- Sorry, I just got back in. Things were so boring, I took Train guys suggestion and went and did some chores.
As soon as RYL announced I added some CTX short and LEN. These are position trades for me. Can't see daytrading anything like RYL. I'm more of a fundamentals trader on position trades so I wouldn't be very helpful on suggesting a resistance level as longer term we are near support. Looks to me like anything between 34 and 35 are resistance/support. Near term
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=RYL,uu[l,a]daclyyay[da][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
The way I'm playing it is this is the first strike against the homebuilders so I'm going to start building my positions. I'm look also at folks that finance (as in my mention of WM yesterday) and suppliers (as in MHK). My stops will probably run 3-4%.
Just an idea. I'nm starting to build a new watchlist around this industry and related. Any ideas anyone? Ones I have now are PHM, CTX , MDC, LEN , RYL, TOL, HOV, MHK, WM, BZH, KBH , MTG.
Joe
Joe
RRI- up 15%. Not bad for an ugly day. eom
Homebuilders taking a little hit here. RYL spinned this as the were increasing guidance for 2003. They incresed the year by 2 cents but dropped 1Q by 12 cents. How do they get away with that shat.
Joe
RYL- I think RYL just slipped in a warning on us. Said they are looking at $1 for 1Q. First call is showing 1.12. Short the homebuilders away.
Joe
The Atlanta paper today was going on how November sales were up a strong 5% ex-auto. I know they are making efforts to sway their editorial pages more to the right but why are they moving decimal points too!
joe
>>Do you still anticipate 1600s in Jan.<<
I know you didn't ask me but I think the head wins are just too strong to see the 1600's. With a weak dollar, a weak retail Christmas, high debt levels and a housing market that is topping out, I don't see a catalyst that will drive stocks much higher from here. If we are going to see 1600's in January we need to be seeing some signs of strength and leadership here. I don't see any.
JMO, Joe
This is a real battle between the bulls and the bears or someone is proping up the market. With everything that is going on, the trading range is much too tight in the indexes to be natuarl in my opinon. Long QQQ's for about 45 minutes now and going nowhere. Hell, I even have a tight stop and I'm still sitting on these shares.
Gotta love that RRI.
Joe
>>>trading well below the max pain level, anyone have a suggestion??<<<
Yeah, forget about watching "max pain". The numbers are practically worthless on individual stocks. All you see are the numbers on the surface. No telling what strategies lie beneath.
JMO
Joe
I'm thinking this may help the IPP's tomorrow and going forward. You think Gold can really move. Wait until these power producers start running. JMO
Feds: Calif. owes $1.2 billion for power
State sought $8.9 billion in refunds from energy suppliers
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- California officials lost a round Thursday in their bid for a multibillion-dollar electricity refund and learned that instead they may have to pay out $1.2 billion.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6A52FF4D%2D9568%2D4830%2D8D1F%2DFE32CBE10644%7D&am...
I traded the QQQ's all day. That 26.69 was a mistake when QQQ was trading at near 25.69 at 12:08. My charts show 26.17 as the high at 10:54am
Joe
>>>Not to mention that they sit there and want to argue with anyone with a bearish outlook, but wax orgasmic with all the bulls<<<
I think you guys forget that this show is for entertainment. They want the most amount of folks walking away from that show to feel good and return. Doom and gloom doesn't sell. They want to tell folks what they want to hear, not what they should listen to.
Joe
Interesting... DJ Calif Declines To Question FERC Staff On Power Contracts
By Mark Golden Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Attorneys for the state of California on Thursday waived their right to cross examine Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff, which had concluded that the state failed to make a case for abrogating its long-term power contracts.
Attorneys for the power suppliers under the contracts were somewhat surprised by the decision, but one of the attorneys for the state indicated the staff conclusion didn't harm their case.
From OI: Assets of all Money Market Mutual Funds rose +$10.36 billion in the week ended Dec-11th. However, retail MMM funds fell -$3.64 billion. The overall gains were attributed to institutions stashing cash to the tune of +$14.55 billion. This means retail investors were taking money out of funds while corporations were adding money. Since corporations were not putting it into the stock market it suggests that they were selling into the retail rally from last week. This is not a good sign for the near future.
OptionInvestor.com
Dollar Declines as Current-Account Deficit Near Record High
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_top...
WM-shorted some just over 36.00. Position trade. $1.00 stop loss.
Joe