Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
TYC- This one has some hefty goodwill figures still on thje balance sheet. In fact, if they removed all of their goodwill off the balance sheet it would nearly wipe out all of their shareholder equity. Wonder if this goodwill will be addressed in the referenced filing below. I would think the new CEO would want to start his tenure with a clean slate than ignore it now and have to deal with it later. I have a short position. JE
Statement From Tyco International Ltd.
Friday December 20, 4:54 pm ET
PEMBROKE, Bermuda, Dec. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/-- Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC, BSX: TYC, LSE: TYI) today stated that it expects to release the results of the previously announced review and analysis of the Company's accounting and governance practices and procedures on or before December 30, 2002. The results will be made publicly available in a Current Report on Form 8-K that will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission at that time. The Company also stated that it will not otherwise comment on the review until after the release of the results.
Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/17/02
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.
S&P 500
Commercials added significantly to both long and short positions,
however added 7,000 more short contracts. Small traders took a
similar approach in adding to both sides, but came out decidedly
longer, by about 13,000 contracts.
Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI
11/26/02 447,024 488,250 (41,226) (4.4%)
12/03/02 444,345 487,411 (43,066) (4.6%)
12/10/02 446,831 503,583 (56,752) (5.9%)
12/17/02 465,361 528,896 (63,535) (6.4%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/02
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 16,472) - 10/01/02
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/26/02 155,975 81,962 74,013 31.1%
12/03/02 162,192 82,584 79,608 32.5%
12/10/02 162,115 71,505 90,610 38.8%
12/17/02 194,740 90,803 103,937 36.4%
Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
NASDAQ-100
Commercials reduced the net short position by about 5,000
contracts, while small traders left positions relatively
unchanged, with a net reduction in the long position of about
800 contracts.
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
11/26/02 43,231 52,425 ( 9,194) ( 9.6%)
12/03/02 43,709 51,977 ( 8,268) ( 8.6%)
12/10/02 44,651 51,716 ( 7,065) ( 7.3%)
12/17/02 51,999 54,383 ( 2,384) ( 2.2%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/02
Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/26/02 17,574 12,329 5,245 17.5%
12/03/02 13,749 9,869 3,880 16.4%
12/10/02 15,026 9,242 5,784 23.8%
12/17/02 23,027 18,027 5,000 12.2%
Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/02
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Commercials added to both sides of the position in approximately
equal numbers, while small traders cut down on the short position
by about 400 contracts.
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
11/26/02 20,499 15,015 5,484 15.4%
12/03/02 20,176 15,427 4,749 13.3%
12/10/02 19,953 15,759 4,194 11.7%
12/17/02 23,782 20,605 3,177 7.2%
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
11/26/02 6,544 10,350 (3,806) (22.5%)
12/03/02 5,885 9,781 (3,896) (24.9%)
12/10/02 5,394 9,499 (4,105) (27.6%)
12/17/02 5,498 9,045 (3,547) (24.4%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01
Some remarks from California's Guy Davis,
Wednesday night from Governor Davis: “Fifty-one percent ($17.7 billion) of this [deficit] problem is a reduction in revenues based on predictions in our current budget. Thirty-six percent ($12.6 billion) of the problem are the one-time reductions that we used last year to solve that problem. Twelve-point-five percent ($4.5 billion) are increased expenditures…
As you well know, we have a very progressive system in this state – 80% of our revenues come from 10% of the tax earners. So, we depend heavily on the well-being of highly compensated Californians. …From 1995 to 2000 these taxpayers experienced an increase in what they were providing state government on the order of about 18% in ’95, ’96, ’97, and ’98, and then it shot up in ’99 to about 25%, and a little higher in 2000. In 2001, they actually dropped down to zero – so there was a dramatic falloff in 2001. And 2002 they are down about 3%...
But when you have a very progressive tax system – which basically exempts everyone from taxes making up to $45,000 a year – and depend heavily on the performance of the top ten percent of your wage earners, then you run the risk that, if they do badly, services have to be reduced and there’s not the revenue for other things we’d like to do in government. So, if there is one single problem that has caused this problem, this is it.
Another way of looking at it: If you just took people whose incomes exceed a million dollars, and look at the impact they’ve had on state revenues – again going back to ’95 - it was a 46% increase that year in what they contributed to state revenues. ’96 it was a 20% increase, 33% increase in 1997, 21% increase in 1998, 62% increase in 1999, 45% increase in 2000, and a drop off of 47% in 2001… That’s about a 50% drop in the revenues coming into state coffers from the millionaires in one year.
There’s another way of looking at it, because capital gains is a big part of the problem. Obviously, people that do well invest their money. Many of their investments are in the stock market. I’ve told you many times that the NASDAQ was at 5,000 in April 2000; it’s now at about 1,400 – it’s a 75 or 80% reduction… Here again, from ‘90 through '95, you have a fairly steady indication of how much money is coming into the coffers of around $20 billion. Then you have a pretty good run up from '95 up through '98 – we’re up to about $50 billion. But you never realize this until after the fact, but you have a spike in 2000 up around $110 billion. 2001 you’re back down to $40 billionish and 2002 will be less…so that’s another way of looking at the same picture.
…Even the sales tax – which is very dependable and does not depend on the higher wage earners - has diminished in recent years. Again, from ’98, ’99, you can see a slight trend upward to 2000, and a slight trend down in 2001. And in the end of 2001 a pretty significant [decline and] you’re back to where you were in 1998 or less. And then an actual reduction in 2001 and 2002 from sales tax revenues from retailers and all sorts of taxable transactions... This is usually a very dependable source of revenue. You rarely see the kinds of fluctuations you do with the income tax. But we are seeing a marked reduction…
That shows you in a snapshot that while lack of revenue is not the only reason we are confronted with a major shortfall, it is the primary reason; that, plus the expectation that things would get better quicker last year. We had a lot of one-time solutions, and we did it in part because everyone from Alan Greenspan on down was saying, “The economy will recover – it will recover in the spring of 2002. In the worst-case in the summer of 2002, but it will recover.” And so we didn’t want to savage health and welfare programs and knock people off of programs for which they are eligible when we think the economy is going to bounce back that quickly. Now, the finance department has its conference with a number of financial experts and the consensus now is that it will be very unlikely there will be a recovery in 2003 at all and we’ll have to wait until 2004… But now we are faced with a very different situation and you’ll see when I make my budget plan on January 10th, with a very different response.”
AMZN- Mlsoft, IMO the support for AMZN is false and could be removed at anytime. These stocks always work towards the fundies so i will hold as long as it takes. Good point about right after the first to short though. With the gains that AMZN has had I could see some tax advantages to hold long until after year end. I may add on the 30th or 31st.
Joe
>>AMZN -- What's keeping this up??<<
I'm very short this pig and will hang in there until I get my price. Just looked at max pain and see 22.50. I'n not much of a believer in Max pain but it is something to consider. I am amazed that this one is supported so well. Yesterday it did not even blink when barnes and noble warned. Just short it and wait. It will come down.
Joe
FED- no repo expirations today.
<>>The fed has announced a 6 day repo in the amount of 3B. I guess Al Green has completed his holiday shopping and is spreading the wealth around. I'll be surprised if this money finds its way into equities, particularly given his and Bernanke's comments about the fed buying 30 year bonds to keep the yield under control. This, however, is the baldest of speculation on my part.<<
Interesting. My Nas NMS tick is just showing a high of 20 this am thus far. So far it has been mostly negative. Looks like there is a fair amount of distribution as retail gobbles up these stocks.
Joe
PRESS RELEASE: KB No Longer Reporting Monthly Net Orders
KB Home No Longer Reporting Monthly Net Orders
LOS ANGELES, Dec. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- KB Home (NYSE: KBH), one of the largest homebuilders in the United States and France, today announced that it will no longer report its net orders on a monthly basis. The Company will, however, continue to report its net orders on a quarterly basis.
The Company believes that net orders over a short time frame, such as one month, are prone to volatility and, therefore, may not accurately reflect the state of its business. The Company also believes such short-term results may be over-emphasized, particularly in light of the fact that most other publicly-held homebuilders do not currently report monthly net orders. The Company had continued to report its net orders in monthly press releases despite several other companies in the industry having discontinued this practice in recent years.
Anyone got any tax loss selling candidates that would make good buys next 7 trading days? Criteria I look for is it must show value, low price to earnings growth . Most be widely held and have average daily volume over 500k. Must have taken a good loss in 2002. Some candidates I'm looking at are. I have a bias to the beaten up utility stocks and would appreciate other ideas for discussion. I think a handfull of these power producers could double in the next 60 days.
>
>
>
MIR especially if they announce earnings before the end of the year.
>
>
BRKS- Trading very heavy pre-market with downside. eom
>>>S&P futures up to 894 you overnight shorts are going to get butt f***ed like you never been before.<<<
Much like how some watch Nascar just to see a crash, I think some traders participate to watch others lose money. Almost like the more you lose the more I make. I never understood the mind set that is displayed when the market turns up and the glee that is displyed when another trader gets, as you put it, "butt f***ed, by being on the wrong side. I don't see that atitude near as much the other way around. Why is that?
Joe
>>Xbox achieved its best month of the year for
console sales in November. <<
What a bullcrap story. Well, duh...games always sell better around Christmas. Hell, I'll predict that December will be a record month for sales in 2002.
Joe
CTX- Bot Jan 55 puts. Heavy volume today at that strike price.
Joe
Philly Fed out at noon. Could be a market mover on a day like today. Briefing.com calling for better than expected numbers. FWIW
CTAS- Nice reverse job. Killed my remaining puts. Should have not been such a pig. arggg!
Joe
CTAS Downside Earnings Alert: 2Q 37c; First Call 38c
Analysts surveyed: 9 The company's earnings figure is on a diluted basis. Thomson First Call assumes earnings estimates from analysts are on a diluted basis.
Got some Dec 50 puts that look very good right now.
Joe
FMC Analysis Warns Of `The Overheated Mortgage Machine`
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The rapid growth in mortgage debt and the broad distribution of "agency" securities across the financial system has exposed banks and other financial intermediaries, including the government-sponsored enterprises themselves, to considerable risk in the event that interest rates rise and/or housing prices fall.
Or so warns the Financial Markets Center, an independent, nonprofit research entity, in a new analysis. Agency securities, in bond market parlance, prominently include those issued by the housing-related GSEs - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System.
"In addition to their own mortgage loans, banks hold 16.6% ($890 billion) of outstanding agency issues, while thrift institutions and credit unions own another 4.9% ($264.8 billion)," the FMC said in an analysis entitled "The Overheated Mortgage Machine."
"Private pension funds and public-employee retirement funds have 7.9% ($425.4 billion) of these securities and mutual funds hold 13.4% ($718.4 billion)," the FMC said.
"Unlike these institutional investors, households do not own substantial volumes of agency paper outright," the analysis continued. "However, households are indirectly exposed to the GSEs' fortunes through the holdings of their pension and mutual funds. If rising interest rates triggered a decline in the value of agency securities, household net worth would diminish as a result of these holdings."
The analysis said the third quarter surge in residential lending by banks "reflects a steady transformation of deposit-taking institutions into a housing-finance colossus that supports - and is supported by - the quasi-governmental institutions (GSEs), which channel savings into mortgages."
It said this transformation has compounded imbalances within credit markets by flooding homebuilders and homeowners with borrowed cash while sectors such as manufacturing go betting for funds.
The analysis said home equity borrowing is a poor substitute for increased profits, investment, employment and disposable income, and that consumption spending financed by excessive debt accumulation isn't a path to sustainable recover.
"The bursting of a mortgage bubble could unleash broader financial disruptions with deeper macroeconomic implications than the shakeout following the S&L crisis of the 1980s," the analysis warned.
RRI- finding a buyer on volume going into the close.
AMZN- Yep, action on AMZN sure looks fishy. I added to my position/core short today. As cheap as things are in the stores with these sales I would think that convenience has been compromised. JMO
Joe
HAL- halted. Looks like another "pay day" for the parasites of our society in the legal profession.
DALLAS (Dow Jones)--The chairman of the plaintiffs committee negotiating a global asbestos litigation settlement with Halliburton Inc. (HAL) says the long-awaited deal has been completed.
New York plaintiffs attorney Perry Weitz said the parties have agreed to terms consistent with those already outlined by Halliburton, including a bankruptcy filing by Halliburton subsidiaries Kellogg Brown & Root Inc., payment of $2.775 billion in cash, and 59.5 million shares of Halliburton stock to pay asbestos claims.
He said Halliburton will be delivering details of the agreement to a Pittsburgh bankruptcy judge today.
LOL! I remember about a year ago I was placing a short order right before close on a stock reporting earnings after the bell. I was at my hardware store and just as I started to place my order I was called down front to help with a plumbing question. I placed the order and ran down to the floor and made a 50 cent sale on a washer. I came back to my office about 15 minutes later and the stock was down 3 points and my order was for 1000 shares. Unfortunately still on my screen was the confirmation screen that in my hurry I had forgot to send. arrggg! That 50 cent washer sale cost me three grand!
Joe
Mortgage Refis Rebound, Homeowners Lured By Lower Rates
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Ending a hiatus induced by a winter storm and higher interest rates, U.S. homeowners rushed to refinance their mortgages last week ahead of the holidays as rates once again moved lower, according to data on applications released Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) refi index shot up 18.8% to 4,507.6 in the week ending Dec. 13 from 3,793.8 in the week prior, rebounding from its lowest level in 20 weeks. Inclement weather and higher interest rates were behind that decline.
Refis made up 73% of total applications, up from 70% in the week before. Purchase applications, meanwhile, rose 5.9% to 379.9 from 358.8.
Strategists said they expected the rebound, particularly after the sharp drop in applications seen in the first week of December and the recent retreat of mortgage rates back toward their record lows.
"We are not surprised," said Nomura Securities mortgage strategist Arthur Frank. "We thought last week came in lower than expected."
Lower interest rates certainly provided the incentive some homeowners needed to file a refi application. Mortgage rates dropped for the first time in nearly a month last week, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaging 6.04%, down from 6.19%, according to Freddie Mac (FRE).
Not surprising, the level of mortgage applications has fluctuated largely in tandem with interest rate movements while outlier factors such as the Thanksgiving holiday and inclement weather have distorted the weekly data moderately. While the latest increase belies speculation that this year's historic refi event is sputtering, some strategists say it is showing signs of strain as many homeowners have already taken advantage of low rates.
"In spite of a 20% increase, the MBA index is still significantly lower than its levels seen earlier in the year," Salomon Smith Barney mortgage strategists said in a note. The index touched a record 6,926.9 in early October when the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed averaged 5.98%.
"We still see signs of significant burnout," the strategists said.
Refinancings this year have put billions of dollars in the hands of consumers who have used the newfound cash for purchases, paying off debt or padding their savings account. Economists credit low interest rates and the subsequent wave of refinancings with keeping consumer spending strong despite a struggling economy and softening job market.
Even if the refi event is moderating, economists say it will continue to boost spending in the months to come given the delay between applications and actual processing. They also remind that the refi index has remained at historically elevated levels throughout the second half of the year. The MBA considers an index of 1,000 or higher to be a refi boom.
What Lies Ahead
With less than three weeks left until year end, mortgage applications are poised to drop off temporarily as homeowners become distracted with holiday shopping, parties and vacations. The new year, however, is likely to revive borrowers penchant for lower rates.
"After this number, we have the holiday effect in the next three weeks," said Nomura's Frank, who expects the index to dip back below 4,000 during that period. But come January, the index will move back to the high 4,000s and possibly to the low 5,000s, he added.
Due to the holidays, the MBA has also modified its mortgage applications release schedule as Christmas and New Year's both fall on Wednesdays, the day of the week the survey is usually published. The MBA will report the indexes on Thursday, Dec. 26 next week and on Thursday, Jan. 2 the following week.
CTAS comes out with earnings tomorrow. I bought Dec 50 puts a few days ago for an earning play.
Bios- Some talk here about biotech's. About 6 months ago a banned them from my watchlist. After reviewing my trades for the previous year I saw a strong pattern that my largest losses were coming from the bios for short term trades. One of the best moves I made was to ignore them.. They don't track anything, technicals are crazy. Long or short, a news item can put you in the dumpster quick. All in all, there are thousands of other stocks out there, I just couldn't come up with a good risk/reward plan to see trading them anymore.
Just a personal observation.
Joe
QQQ-long @ 25.29 daytrade. Stop at 25.22
*DJ JP Morgan Says 2003 Will Be S&P's Fourth Down Year
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
12-18-02 0928ET
KSS- Overvalued retailer that I think could see weakness going forward. Good short op for a position play . Likes to wiggle so tight stops won't work. Just a fundamental opinion.
Joe
TE- Nice utility with good dividend. I have a long position. Serves Florida area that does not appear to have much over capacity as some of the other markets do. Can't say I would add here but I would on a pull back. Nearing strong resistance and I anticipate that it will breakout after the first of the year so I will continue to hold. Just an idea for a watchlist.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=te,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dd][pc20!c50....
Joe
I also like the BEARX fund and I also agree that I would pull the remainder out of mutual funds. I would put 20% in a BEARX fund and the remainder in 50% bonds (bonds- not bond funds) and 50% in selective ETF's in areas heavy in health sciences and energy. Selective mutual funds in these areas wouldn't be too bad either.
On a more conservatine note, I would think a portfolio of just bonds may outperform equities for the next 20 years. Back in Jan-Feb 2000 I bet some folks on another board that a 30 year treasury bought at that time yielding 6.5% would outperform and big cap tech stock bought at the same time over the next thirty years. Now, 3 years later, that bond has a commanding lead over the likes of CSCO, INTC, DELL, MSFT, etc. Most would have to double to catch up.
Of course it's stupid for me to make a recommendation because I have no idea what your risk profile is nor how dependent you are on these funds for your retirement. I'm just throwing out an idea. The above is mostly for a buy and hold account. Short term, bonds could be tricky if you needed to trade them quick.
Joe
>>>That is not new debt<<<
60% of all refinancers take equity out of their homes. That's additional debt. As I recall they take out additional $34,000 on average. (Check my numbers-using best as I can recall)
Joe
Mortgage refinancing now accounts for an astounding 20 percent of real gross product growth,"
Reason # ??? why we won't see a recovery next year and why we more than likely slip back into a recession IMO. Not only do we have to service all this new debt, we also have to grow it to show a recovery. Refinancing has boosted the economy $250 billion in the last two years.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEC82CD3E%2DC810%2D495A%2D8347%2D773CDA0582F2%7D&am...
Joe
Sylvester, Yep, thanks. I just don't recall that much of a difference last night. Oh, well.
Joe
QQQ- What's up with QQQ? Still barely green and all majors are red.
Joe
PRESS RELEASE: GE To Make Presentation To Analysts
FAIRFIELD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 16, 2002--GE Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Immelt will make a presentation to financial analysts Monday evening, December 16 and Tuesday morning, December 17.
The presentation will be Webcast live at www.ge.com/investor, starting at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday. The charts for the presentation will be posted on that website Monday evening at 6:30 p.m.
THC- I think THC will be great tax selling candidate to go long at the end of the year. I think it may be under pressure until then.
Joe
Nas NMS tick just hit another new low at 12:30 at -240 Has the index backed off ? No. The Nas tick hit a new high at 12:03 at +390. Big swing but the index has gone nowhere.
BTW, Stopped out of MHK and LEN shorts earlier on some position trades. Crazy how RYL's reduced earnings for 1Q was not framed as a warning.
Joe
>>>With such a low volume it's clear they are fishing for suckers <<<
LOL! Looking at the nas chart today it indeed looks like a casting line being thrown to the fish.
Train Guy, I watch the Nas NMS tick which is the nas less the small cap. I like this one since I mainly daytrade large cap tech. This also helps be see the buy programs hit and also some clue when the PPT is active. The low for the nas NMS tick is -212. What I'm seeing is that these tick spikes are being sold as soon as they hit. Then they are followed by another. Looking at this chart you would never believe that the nas is as high as it is without a decent pullback as the nas tick has been hitting higher highs and higher lows since the open. Looks like a fine paint job to me.
Joe
>>Just like "they" let it drop the last couple weeks?<<<
Yep. You got it. Joe
My, my "they" keeping pushing this market up. Normal trading patterns would suggest larger pullbacks before buying these dips. The nas tick has been amazing this am with buying spikes coming in with any let up in buying pressure.
Joe