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Check with your broker but Schwab would not charge you a commission higher than the amount of the stock you sold. My understanding you need to sell it to show a "realized" loss for tax purposes.
Joe
AMZN- What would make me cover?? I think different stocks should be traded differently. I can day trade INTC, AMAT, especially QQQ and a few other tech stocks because they track the indexes fairly well. AMZN is different. IMO AMZN isn't a trading stock and should be traded more on fundies and events and therefor should be held for longer periods of time. Mlsoft calls these core shorts I think.
Right now I'm waiting for AMZN's earnings. If they warned I would probably cover some on the sell-off. If they have a bad report or don't meet expectations I would expect a sell-off that I would cover at least half of my position. What I fear most is trading in and out of a stock like AMZN is missing that big leg down by being wrong in my timing. I see AMZN being a $5-$8 stock someday. I hope to have a core postion to take some advantage of the drop. To me the "story" for AMZN right now is that they will be challenged to meet earnings.If they do meet earnings then the story would change and I would then cover at higher prices. If they don't then I will start trading it down using support and resistance areas for decision making while keeping a core position. Any this make sense?
Joe
>>>Maybe they will be bought up?<<<
I had a discussion with the Chairman of one of the major oil companies about a year ago. He said that the oil companies had consolidated about as much as the government would let them. He mentioned that a likely area for the large oil companies to expand would be the power producers. He implied that the only thing holding back the power producers from being bought was the taint from the Enron deal and how it was not currently acceptable to their shareholders. At the time MIR CPN and DYN were mentioned as candidates at much higher prices.
FWIW, JOe
>>>Without looking I would say it is a BK candidate....<<<
Indeed that is why they are low. Same could be said about RRI, MIR, DYN etc. I just don't see it. I think the Enron link has sold these guys down way too far. In the case of ILA, ILD is the bond and offers a bit more security. Be question now is if these guys can refinance their loans coming due. With the assets they have I don't see where they would have a problem. This comapny does over $40 bil in revenues and is still projected to have profits next year.
Joe
ILD- Bond for ILA that sells like a stock. Kyros mentioned at SI. Pays 15% yield and selling near 50% of face value. worth a look for fixed income IMO. ILA selling for 13% of book.
Joe
>>So let's just see who's the best, ok?<<
Sykes, You are the best. Congratulations on your great year. You beat me.
Joe
One reason I like these beaten down energy stocks for a tax loss selling. I'm betting that many of these are held in income producing portfolios and will be sold to offset income. In RRI case. 240 million shares were dumped on these folks. Since RRI pays no dividends I think there is a good chance RRI will be pitched from many accounts. I hope what we are seeing is that the selling is over. (RRI at new HOD- 3.13)
Joe
Newly, Check out the ECN fees at CyberTrader. 8 Accounts? These are accounts I trade for myself and others daily. Just two are day trade accounts but 6 are position trades accounts that I watch very closely daily.. I have other acconts but they are mostly income producing, long term account. That said, 8 accounts for a couple is not unreasonable. My wife and I each have a roth, we each have a sep, We each have a personal non-tax deferred account for misc. In addition I have a trading account at Schwab and a backup at E-trade, and two investment accounts for my business. One for Income and one for long term position trades. That's ten account at various brokerages.
Joe
redwards, I don't have a target on this one other than when it gets up to 50% of book I'll think about it then. As I mentioned, this one is the closest things I have ever had for a LTBH. I've told myself I would be out at book but that is over $20. I think this one will be paying a dividend sometime in the future. If or when it goes over $10 I'll look to sell calls on my holdings for income. I also don't have a stoploss other than mental which is down there for about a 20% gain. I was buying this one now I think I would have to look at a 20% stop loss as to not get shaken out too soon. I have done a fair amount of research on this one and feel good about it long term. I recommend few stocks to friends and family but when RRI was down at $1.50 and less I was on the phone. Problem is, of course, one brother this weekend asked me why I didn't tell him about RRI and i did another. Another lesson relearned! LOL!
Joe
>>They are getting ready to ambush you. <<
Have them bring it on! LOL! I'm currently not short any tech except AMAT and AMZN if you want to call AMZN tech. Oh yes, MKSI too for a small position. I just felt I was hanging around the well a little too long. Mainly short homebuilders, some financials like WM and C, and , MHK MBI MTG. Long energy plays because I think buying will pick up after jan 1 due to tax loss selling....and long golds, GLG, GG, GFI. Tired of bouncing in and out of those and decided to pare down my positions alittle and sit on them alittle longer.
Joe
RRI- new HOD. Up 9.4%. I got 45,000 shares of this issue so it's putting a big smile on my face. Only bad part is is that it eats up a chunk of margin.
Joe
Anyone notice that we haven't been getting many of those "one minute miracle tick' readings. Have they written off 2002. Where's the PPT?
Joe
>>Aren't the volumes very low?<<
I'm not sure I underestand your question. Yes, volumes have been low. Looks like we have lack of buyers.
Joe
Mlsoft, I called CyberTrader and they basically convinced me to stay at Schwab. They told me that their best platform is the same as Street Smart Pro. They said that comissions were cheaper but that you had to add ECN fees which brought them up to about 14.95. I did not actually try out the software.
It's funny...the Schwab guys say for as many trades as I do I should go to CyberTrader. I don't think the Schwab guys have a clear understanding of different platforms.
Joe
I wonder if tax selling is affecting the markets more than what we would imagine. Manay probably haven't taken losses and with the Dow down 3 years now without much hope in sight, many may be throwing in the towel. Mutual fund inflows appear to show that that the last few months.
Joe
I see that some of the more fundamentally strong stocks are holding up and still green today...RSTO, AMZN, TYC....LOL!
Street Smart Pro gives as many real charts that one could want. I would imagine after Eddy's comments that TradeStation does a good job too.
Joe
Thanks, Eddy. I'll check it out. Joe
>>REALTORS STILL PREDICT RECORD 2002 SALES, COOLER 2003<<
let's see...it's December 30th and the Realtors are still "predicting" a record "2002"! Seems like they would know!
Joe
Brainlessone, LOL! You don't think I have been tempted many times to sell. My average cost is near 1.50. I'm mostly a short term position trader. Yet, I have held RRI for more than a couple of months now. I like the potential and plan on holding. It's the only stock that I have that I have at this time that I consider holding through thick and thin. I only would do that with a stock that I believe that is strongly undervalued.
Joe
Eddy, Thanks for the recommendation for TradeStation. When with Schwab did you use the trading platform by CyberTrader?
Would be hard for me to change as it would require me changing several accounts and some others that I manage. However, if it does have a better platform the Schwab's Street Smart Pro by Cybertrader it would be worth a look for some because I just can't imagine anything smoother that Schwab's platform. I also find that Schwab has a better inventory of stocks to short than others that I have used such as E-Trade, Datek, and NDB in the past. I also get better fills than the others can always get a live person on the phone in seconds.
FWIW, Joe
No, all the accounts are with Schwab.
Joe
RRI- up another 8% today. I think this one could break out strong after the first of the year.
Joe
I'm short KBH as of last week. Rich, thanks for posting those comments. I thought when they came out and said they won't give monthly sales numbers anymore that something was up. They also said that 13% of the homes they sell get downpayment assistance. That really doesn't say much but does tell me that they are getting a significant amount of sales from a market that has low margins. Also if FNM tightens qualifications that could cut off some of this low income buying. Just a small position now and waiting for more cracks.
Joe
Cybertrader- Their trading platform is the best I have seen. However, I use Schwab because I get better service. Commissions at Schwab are 14.95 with the qualifying number of trades as compared to Cybertrader that is something like 9.95 plus ecn fees that get you up to about 14.95 from what i understand. What I like about Schwab is being able to have all my accounts that I trade (8) on a drop down box on that single platform.
Joe
Let's take the sports to the politics board too. I think sports players played better under the Clinton administration. Nobody is interested in sports under Bush. I think Hillary would make a better goalie than a Pres.
Joe
>>So, you are saying that you agree that Short Selling is not only necessary, but an IMPORTANT part of investing dynamics?<<
Short selling is an IMPORTANT part of the stock market. Over the last three years I have been very happy to do my part to keep the markets balanced. LOL! If you don't agree about the need for "shorting" then you really do not understand the markets. I think Zeev made some very good points. Remember the shorts can only sell when someone wants to buy and also only on an uptick (few exceptions)meaning that the shorts can not "pile" on unless there is someone buying at the ask. Short help level the playing field.
Joe
>>I would like to make some money next week.<<
I posted here a couple of weeks ago about doing some tax loss plays. Didn't get any response. It's more than a daytrade and usually take at least 30 days to work but make great position plays. RRI in my opinion has great potential long for 2003. I think ILA and EP could have good moves after the 1st along with MIR. THC could be interesting. Homebuilders look like great shorts to me. Tomorrow I want to research companies that are heavy into home loans. Any ideas in that area?
Anyway, RRI is my best idea for January/Feb. I'm very bearish going forward so my long ideas are few. I share Mlsoft's ideas for core shorts along with a few others. KSS, ABK, MTG, AXL, KBH are a few others.
Joe
Interesting article about Robert Prechter of the Elloit Wave. Ties in with the political discussion. Excerpt: ''As a result, most people think that economics, politics, and war and peace affect people's moods, but it's the other way around,'' Prechter says. ''Social moods shape events.''
MARKET THEORY: Seer predicts catastrophe just around the corner
Adam Levy - Bloomberg News
Friday, December 27, 2002
Gainesville --- Forget about the Dow Jones industrial average returning to 11,000. Try Depression-era levels below 1,000.
And don't flock to bonds for safety: Municipalities will default, and corporate bonds will be wracked by downgrades. Even the U.S. government's credit status may sink low enough to make Treasury bills shaky.
If you believe in such gloomy prophecies, you probably know about Robert Prechter Jr. He's a former rock-and-roll drummer turned stock market technical analyst who first gained fame in the 1980s.
Prechter is now undergoing a renaissance. His book ''Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression'' (John Wiley & Sons, 2002), which warns of a looming economic cataclysm, reached the top of Amazon.com's financial best-seller list in 2002. His two main monthly newsletters have increased their subscriber base by more than 50 percent.
Even some investors who don't buy into Prechter's apocalyptic views say his analysis of the markets makes sense.
Prechter, now 53, peaked in popularity in the fall of 1987. On Oct. 5 of that year, he cautioned investors that stocks would crash.
Exactly two weeks later, Black Monday, the Dow plummeted 22.6 percent. Prechter's reputation was solidified.
''Like those old E.F. Hutton commercials: Everyone stopped when he spoke,'' says David Gannon, an environmental consultant who traded municipal bonds in the 1980s for what was then Shearson Lehman Brothers. ''Bob Prechter could and did move markets.''
Prechter's standing suffered in the 1990s because he missed the almost decade-long bull market. He spent much of that decade building up his firm, Elliott Wave International, outside the spotlight.
Today, Prechter's company employs 70 people, mostly market analysts and technicians who provide about 700 investors and firms with frequent, sometimes hourly, commentary on worldwide stock and bond markets, currencies, commodities and energy futures.
The cost of all of this information: up to $19,200 a year. Two main newsletters, Elliott Wave Theorist and Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, each have 6,000 subscribers. That's up from 4,000 subscribers each during the lean 1990s.
Prechter is an advocate of the wave principle, a mathematically complex theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression.
In an age when many technical analysts and investors use elaborate computer models of economics and applied mathematics to forecast the market, Prechter uses other gauges, like watching television and listening to popular music, that he says reflect the mass psychology of our time and provide evidence of when a wave will change direction.
Prechter says his interpretation of current societal trends and sentiment forces him to conclude that we are approaching something just short of Armageddon.
Mostly on the mark
''We've entered a bear market that's so big, we haven't had anything like it since the 1700s, and that was a 64-year corrective process,'' says Prechter, who has wavy hair parted in the middle and kneels on an ergonomic, backless chair. ''This is a great opportunity to get out. By the time this whole thing is over, you'll be able to buy your favorite neighborhood mansion from the bank at 10 cents on the dollar.''
Prechter realizes his views are extreme. ''I'm once again calling for events that few expect,'' he says.
Prechter's recent U.S. stock market forecasts have been on the mark: He recognized a buying opportunity immediately after Sept. 11, 2001, and he urged investors to sell as the Dow reached its 2002 peak in March.
The wave principle isn't foolproof. Prechter's 1995 book, ''At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market,'' predicted a slump early.
Michael Thorson, once a trader at the Soros Fund, calls Prechter a ''quack.''
''His advice tidily sums to the oh-so-helpful, 'Be nimble enough to see major trends coming, and make changes accordingly,' '' Thorson says. ''This is the kind of advice my mother used to tell me before I ventured into the haunted house.''
At the same time, Prechter has his fans. ''His work is as relevant now as it ever was,'' says Henry Van der Eb, who runs the Gabelli Mathers Fund. ''I follow a variety of disciplines, and I believe just like there are patterns that repeat themselves in nature, like the nautilus shell, that there are distinct patterns of waves that influence behavior and markets. Elliott wave has validity, and Prechter is its preeminent practitioner.''
Prechter and a small group of analysts are gathering data on social and cultural trends in an attempt to show that the wave principle, which he applies for market forecasting, can also help explain various social actions.
People like to believe in cause and effect, he says, because they know it: Kick a stone, and it moves.
''As a result, most people think that economics, politics, and war and peace affect people's moods, but it's the other way around,'' Prechter says. ''Social moods shape events.''
For example, he says, the prevailing wisdom is that the Sept. 11 terrorist strikes triggered a stock market decline. That's wrong, he says: The market's decline set the stage for the attacks.
''The market was going down for a year and a half, and the anger and fear culminated into sloppiness on the part of authorities who were supposed to identify these threats,'' he says.
Similarly, Prechter says, Enron Corp. didn't collapse because reports of scandals unsettled investors. Rather, the psychological climate of the bull market encouraged companies to mislead investors. In other words, it was the investors who brought on the Enron scandal, not the other way around.
Prechter says he wants to be an antidote to securities analysts, whose work he dismisses as worthless.
''It's difficult to impossible to talk to people in companies and look at balance sheets and make decisions about where a stock is going,'' Prechter says. ''A company and its stock are very different things.''
Most money managers, he says, are either oblivious and always bullish or immoral, merely giving the public what it wants.
Syl, I look at this as being the ugliest week of the year. Low volume and Christmas and buyers still good not take the lead. Doesn't say much about going forward and says alot about the market's sentiment in my opinion. I wouldn't hold longs over the weekend. Too much going on.
Joe
RRI-FWIW, new HOD. eom
RRI-up 6% with $UTY down 1%. Me thinks this is a great tax play.
Very undervalued selling way ,way below book. Refinancing hurdle to be crossed in Feb.
Joe
MKSI- Fundamentally this one looks like a good short to me. Shorted a bit near the close yesterday. This one has diverged from it's peers and should catch up soon IMO. I'll be looking for a break to add more.
Joe
AMZN- Dipped below 20 briefly pre-market. The T/A side says this is strong support (past resistance) and to take some off the table. F/A says it might be a little rough here but stay short because the fundies suck big time.
I'm sticking it out short. A core short position for me. I do have some Jan puts I may take profits on and roll over to another month. Now 19.95 as I edit. I close below 20 will be bad news for longs.
Joe
DJ Amazon Down -3: Start Date For Holiday Season Moved Up
Amazon spokesman Bill Curry said that the online retailer counted the number of days for its holiday season differently this year than in previous ones.
Because there were only 26 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, compared with 32 last year, Amazon moved up the start date of its holiday season to Nov. 1 from Nov. 9, Curry said.
Last year Amazon received 37.9 million orders between Nov. 9 and Dec. 21. <<
Crooks!
Nice fills both entry and exit. My fills have been lousy the last month. Curious as what you saw at 25.48 for you to sell. Did you use a market or limit order? The reversal looked fairly abrupt.
TIA, Joe
>>>QCOM here at $38.09, there is a print as low as $37.35, but an order at $37.95 I had did not execute.<<<
I'm showing a low of 37.87
Crude Oil powers to a new two-year high on Thursday, continuing to rise as the strike in Venezuela extends beyond 25 days. The February contract (CL03G) is currently higher by 0.29 cents to 32.26 and above the 31.95 high set on Tuesday. Using fitted retracement analysis, resistance is felt above at 32.70.
>>Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) tops today's most-active puts list with some activity at its near-the-money January 2003 20 put strike. So far today, volume of 1,673 contracts has crossed the tape on open interest of 27,286 contracts. In fact, investors have been favoring puts on the security for quite some time. AMZN's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio has been steadily rising higher since hitting the 0.56 level in October. The current reading of 0.92 is higher than 70 percent of those taken during the past year. This number could be partially skewed by the large number of puts at AMZN's way out-of-the-money five strike. This level is home to more than 13,000 contracts in the January series, which are likely old LEAPS that haven't expired yet. As a further sign of this pessimism, the number of AMZN shares sold short has increased 24 percent since July to 51.3 million shares.
Despite the gloomy view from options players and short sellers, the stock continues to show signs of strength. AMZN is pulling back today to potential support at the 20 level. This is the site of peak put open interest in the January series and also previous resistance from May and October. The equity's rising 20-week moving average sits just below at the 19 mark and additional support could come at 18.63. This represents a 50-percent retracement of AMZN's rally from its July low (12.26) to its December high (25.00). The combination of pessimistic sentiment and technical strength could be what's needed to launch the shares on their next leg higher.<<<