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TXN >>>It's so fundamentaly sound that I keep adding more and more everytime it dips below 16.<<
and still so over-priced. PEG of over 4. Price to sales of over 3. Projected pe for 2003 of 50. Where's the fundamentally sound part come in to make it a buy below 16. I see this one in the single digits sometime this year.
Joe
BooBoo. Good trade. Never wrong to take a profit and this one was very profitable for you.
Good luck, Joe
BooBoo, This is where I disagree. I think it dangerous to try to trade this one on the technicals here. RRI broke new ground on the way down and I think it will deny the technicals and break new ground on the way up. One reason is that there are 240 million new shares out there probably much in new hands. Overhead supply is probably nil at this point. Some stocks I watch the techs first then the fundies. Others, I lean more toward the fundies. I don't know how many folks I have talked to or have PM'd me at lower prices thinking that they should get out. Several more are waiting for that pullback. In my book, RRI is a rule breaker and I will trade as such. Of course I could be wrong.
Best, Joe
Call in the PPT,. We accidently put in a lower low on the intraday nas. LOL!
Joe
Thank, Cy. Yeah, those builders keep coming in with strong numbers. I'm short RYL, TOL and KBH right now. Added RYL this am.
Joe
Think I am in love AugieBoo!
Look at that volume.
CY- I haven't bought any of the E&P's except I did start a small position in APA yesterday. Curious as to you research if they are mentioned. I have owned them off and on for several years. I have done a little research on the ones you mentioned.
I going to stay away from the drillers because they track oil to closely for me. I'm leaning towards XTO, DVN, CHK. I'm going to check out NFX as that looks interesting. That said, my strategy has been working well and I'm fully invested so I will need to unload something. Probably need to lighten up some more on some of my homebuilder shorts. I am early on those.
Joe
QQQ- Back short again at 26.91. Stop at just over 27.00. My NMS nas tick has been trending down since 10:30 as the nas has continued to go up. The divergence has to resolve itself soon IMO. Also shorted AMAT at 15.60. I not going to let them run far though.
Joe
CY, Folks keep asking me for sell targets but I really don't have any as I think these guys are way undervalued as the market over-reacted. I know one should not confuse the stock price with the comapny but until these guys get somewhere in line with there peers and there book value I'm going to hang on and wait to set a target. I still firmly believe that RRI should be at minimum a $10 stock. The refi is coming up in Feb. Once that is completed I would not doubt that we get close to that $10 figure.
I see the MIR preferreds are up another 5%.
Joe
Booboo, Main reason i want RRi over $5 other than the obvious ones is that betwen ILA, CPN, MIR, and RRI, I've eatenne up a good chunk of margin availablity. Good idea in hedging but would be interested in how you are going to do it. I expect some pull backs from time to time but you are right, I'm going to hang in for a while and just watch very closely.
Joe
Syl, Again, another nice trade. you da man!
Joe
PPT- to the rescue.
PPT is doing their thing this am IMO. Just had another big fat one minute miracle tick go through. Just went the buying was starting to weaken. Amazing.
Joe
EP not doing so bad either. up 7.5% to over $9. Might sell some of those feb 10 calls on half my position. If I do I'll post it. Probably let this mo-mo play itself out first. The industry is hot.
Joe
QQQ- shorted at 26.65 for a daytrade. Tight stop at 26.76.
RRI- up over 4 bucks. Come on $5!
Joe
GM -3: Likelihood Of Economic Decline Around 20% >GM
CFO Devine said the company is preparing for an economic scenario that could occur if war breaks out with Iraq or other global issues affect the economy. Given the current economic situation, the company expects to see 2003 earnings of $5 a share excluding its Hughes Electronics unit, down from the expected 2002 earnings of $6.75 a share excluding Hughes.
But a severe worsening of the economic situation could end up in a roughly $1 per share earnings estimate for 2003, Devine said. That would be based off a production decline of 6% for the U.S. industry, from 16.5 million cars and trucks to 15.5 million. European production could drop 4% to 18.2 million from 19 million. It would also mean a deterioration in pricing, and lower savings from materials. <<
Guess the street is loking at the best case scenario.
Syl, Nice call on holding those QQQ's overnight. eom
$UTY- Getting close to the 200ema. Now trading comfortably above the 50ema which it hasn't done in awhile. I'm looking for the dividend talk to help push these guys over the 200ema. Much of the bad news is factored in. JMO
MIR- Up 6.9% on 44,000 shares pre-market. eom
Mlsoft, I disagree with you about the dividends being tax free to the individual.. Not that i think that they are going to be all that helpful in a recovery but more for other reasons.
I think corporate Amaerica and the public have gotten away from realizing that these public corporations are owned by the shareholders. The profits that these corporations earn after taxes is the property of the shareholders. Through their elected Directors those profits are distributed to the shareholders in the form of dividends. Of course some of the profits are retained for reserves, growth and other needs. Since the profits are what is left after the corporation has paid taxes, and the corporation is owned by the shareholders, these owners should not be taxed again just because a portion of those profits have been transfered to from the shareholders corporate account to individuals account.
Once we start looking more at these corporations being owned by the shareholders maybe the corporations will start realizing who they work for. Then maybe we won't have a corporation like MSFT who has never shared many of their profits with the shareholders. Many of these corporations use their profits to enrich their employees instead of returning something to their owners for their investment.
I think the taxation of corporate dividends is bad tax law. I think it's unfortunate that the issue has been brought up as a tool for economic recovery and not just on the merits that it is double taxation.
Joe
Why does this chart look like this when many are expecting a recovery is in the works?
MIMS- Nice guidance today. Up 14% on 3+X volume. One to watch. Article
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030108/82061_1.html
>>Gold and utes in 2003.<<
I'm thinking along those lines too. Check out Larry's board over at SI. He started a port of about 20 stocks on the 1st on this month. The port is now up 17%. The MIR preferred is up 19%. If you would have told me two years ago that I would be excited about utes in 2002-3 I would have told you that you are crazy.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=53293
Joe
Credit posts unexpected drop
Consumer debt fell by $2.2 billion in November, the first decline in more than four years.
- Consumer credit outstanding posted an unexpected decline in November, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, its first drop in more than four years.
The central bank said consumer debt fell by $2.2 billion in November after rising a revised $1.6 billion in October. It was the first time since January 1998 that credit had declined.
Industry analysts polled by Reuters had expected credit to increase by $3.9 billion in November.
ILD, up 10%. Not bad for a bond yielding 15%.
Joe
GM will also tell analysts how much the pension plan is underfunded and give guidance for 2003 earnings.
"We've changed our assumption. That's about all I can say now," said Devine. "We've had three years of tough returns that have knocked us for a loop."
At the end of September, Devine had estimated GM's pension fund would be underfunded by $18 billion to $23 billion at the end of 2002. Devine said it looks like the $23-billion figure is more likely now.
Going into 2002, the fund was underfunded by $9.1 billion.
TYC- Let the selling begin.
DJ Tyco Intl (TYC) Block: 2,218,700 Shrs At 17.50
TYCO INTERNATIONAL INC. Last trade NYSE: +0.24 at 17.50 on 0.05 downtick Trade vol: 2,218,700 = 75.3% ttl vol.Block equals 0.1% shrs out Ttl blk vol: 2,824,900 = 95.9% ttl vol.Block equals 0.1% shrs out Avg blk vol: 8,099,342 = 52.5% avg daily vol Ttl vol: 2,945,900 = 19.1% avg daily vol Avg daily vol:15,417,389 / Prev day +0.73 on 107,860,704
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-08-03 1007ET
HD- Call 911. Hit a new low 21.18
>>here is a link to a good evaluation of the various E&P companies by Lehman<<
10Q very much. Joe
COF- Bot some jan puts. Indeed the play looks interesting to me.
Joe
FOR a conservative income portfolio, DUT looks interesting. The DUK bond that trades like a stock. Pays 6.6%
http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?RequestTimeout=60
More aggressive, much more aggressive...ILD is interesting for income.
http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?RequestTimeout=60
FWIW,
Ranch hand, 10Q! As I recall CAT, a DOW component, has some hefty pension issues too.
Joe
>> Capital One Financial's (COF) defensive puts trading robustly Wednesday, likely as cautious investors sought downside protection amid concerns of credit erosion and the impact on credit card companies. Capital One is up a hefty 10.7%, or $3.45, to $35.65 on a down day for stocks. Its January 30 puts traded 16,475 contracts, compared with open interest of 15,411 contracts, and were off 5 cents to 65 cents at the ISE. The company is scheduled to report earnings Jan. 16th, just before these January options expire. (KT) <<<
ILA up too 22% on 2.5X avg daily volume.
Joe
MIR- Average volume on MIR is about 5 mil. MIR has traded 14.3 mil share so far today and is up 16%. Could get interesting. Pray for me that some of these guys get up over $5 so I can free up some margin. <VBG>
Joe
From OptionInvestor.com;
What is going on with the dollar?
Response: There has been word of selling the euro for yen, as well as talk of possible MoF interaction in order to WEAKEN the Yen. The dollar/yen is currently at 119.21, while 121.15 is 38.2% of the retracement of the December sell-off and did have a chance to be reached earlier. As far as dollar/euro is concerned, the dollar made some good gains overnight but has recently handed those back. Why? Possibly due to a report stating that PIMCO's Bill Gross supports a weak dollar. As equities continue to fall, I don't think the dollar will recover much. I will be watching the XAU and see if it can keep its gains (currently higher by 2.58%).
Teri- GM- I think this could be big. This could pressure on other companies that have pension issues as GM faces the media with theirs. GM currently assumes a 10% return. Wonder what that will change too. Anyone else got some tickers that may come under pressure too.
Joe
XTO seems to have the best chart of the group. Do you have a favorite?
DVN- appears to hve a fair amount of past support here.