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Most of the time, after a lightning strike, all that's left behind is a burn mark. Personally don't like the odds for a second strike at the same place. But obviously there is always some spectators showing up the next day.
Single bottom bounce if it bounces.
Trade accordingly.
Increased volume at bottoms is normal as the bottom fishers move in. Could weekly watch for a day trade, attention pop, in the next few weeks.
Actually one would have to set up some king of alert for these. May miss the first day pop of a 3 day attention pop, just checking Mondays.
Gap trading is like evaluating human nature. The phycology is emotion creates gaps in price from one days close, to the next days open. And emotion is self correcting. Thus once one sees emotion one should see correction. It just human nature.
In stocks, what happens is, the few drive price on emotion and after the emotion, the many bring the price back to previous true value. This few / many thing is why candle wicks don't count. As only the candle body shows the days majority sentiment. The wick spikes are the few again.
As for reliability statistics, I haven't found any. Only personal experience. I say 90% of common gaps fill quick. But this, like all trading, is a gray area. With different opinions from different people. I'm not aware of anyone which has historically researched years data to give accurate statics.
As for stifling the over all move. Your back into phycology again. As when the many take back price control, all should proceed as previous sentiment felt. Common gaps are just hic cups in the underlying trend or true value evaluation of the many. Both trend and chart patterns should continue after correction, unless that gap changed over all sentiment.
This is seen in non common gaps. Where it takes more time for the many to re-evaluate expectations using their personal analysis. Larger break away, exhaustion or run away gaps involve more then just some daily emotion. As they normally involve stronger prior trend or huge company news, which shocks the many. So some home work slows the correction process down.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52290086
I'd say so. Finding patterns, making watch lists, planning each trade and creating a business plan.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95764949
For 2014
Best net average per trade - 12.17%
Best number of days per trade - 7.33 days
Best Annual ROI based on current numbers - 505% APR
Best WIN/LOSS ratio - 15/5 = 75%
He's got it down. It's all in the numbers ! And unlike me, a hard worker to boot. Readers should take advantage of the help at you guys board.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/$-BREAKOUT-Chart-Plays-26116/
LOL it's a process. How many years did it take before stepping out of the herd and finally felling like a successful trader on our own. Took me around 1 1/2 to 2 years. Think about the same for you. I'm very happy for that felling. Sure you are also. Trial and error, till one finds their comfort zone.
It's a process and the more educated and experienced one becomes, the better one feels about their rules, trading style and business plan.
I think it was around when you changed your IHUB handle, I noticed your independence to where the student was helping the teacher. You put the effort in and deserve all the credit. All I do is repeat myself. You created a successful trader by yourself.
Thanks for passing it on here. The readers can use your example and help.
Grats Just happy for you. As I recall you weren't felling to successful 2 years ago.
Been checking your board. You deserve more followers.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Chart-Plays-26116/
Really pleased with your pattern recognition, work ethic and success rate. Thanks for bringing some of your finds to my board. You seem to actually put in the work to find new plays. I just kind of stumble along dumb and happy with what comes my way.
Have to say your making me look lazy. LOL But happy just the same.
GBGM
Trade what you want, not what's in front of you.
Trading on technicals; I want a chart pattern first. That way I know the odds for a move are in my favor. Next I want positive TA indicators. That way I know retail sentiment is in my favor. And last I want good volume. That way I can expect increasing support for any breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FLPC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33456492753
Also want 1 mil average volume for single zero stock. Close enough.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
Buy .013 sell .018 over 2 weeks.
Ps; stock is free trading patterns have stronger reliability.
OTC "Run retrace channel" pattern
OTC chart patterns at the bottom of this link.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87340053
NBRI ouch didn't expect that. Glad I was around to see the open this rush hour and didn't have a standing continuation buy @ .0475. Day trade on your heads up was the plan, luckily.
All TA looked good. Goes to show you, trading emotion on the OTC can be dangerous. Could have been a gotya trade if I had it on strong watch with a standing breakout buy order. This time the first gap in a new run wasn't left behind.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NBRI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28474071876
Right now GBGM is at the top of my strong watch list at the OTC and CNDO at the big boards.
CNDO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNDO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p13806476912
GBGM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBGM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p16212177950
Out of AMBS and day traded BMSN for 25 & 20% in rush hour. 2nd trade at AMBS, but 1st was DEC 2013. Also closed NNAN in DEC at pennyland. Having a unusually positive start in pennyland for 2014. PLUG & FCEL was as positive at the big boards. The rest of the big board portfolio is progressing well, but smaller gain trades involved. RAD & CIM closed & DXCM holding.
Not even a small loss yet. Bet I just jinxed myself. LOL
IMO ILIV will see the .001 gap fill before any continuation.
And on SHMN, Remember to take profits when they present !!!!!!
High volume emotion days on no volume stocks are the biggest way to get caught with your pants down. That volume leaves as fast as it came. And even if the price does not fall fast. You can't sell you large emotion day buy when the next few days the stock is back at no volume.
Always day trade these situations with no or low volume stocks. Holding for more kills the average retailer !
Oh yea. When you see this, you KNOW the stock is under manipulation. That means your odds for winning a successful trade is greatly reduced. Your now involved in a high risk trade !!! As the big guys will move price where ever they make the most money. Be it higher for continued arbitrage volume fees, front trading, or lower to replenish their inventory.
You have become the puppet on their string. IMO find another place to play, unless your good at reading all the various signals M&Ms use during any given day. (there are many) And you then "do what the big guys do!"
It's not urban legend. Every one has their own thoughts about what each tiny even bid or ask signals. But in general you will see these makes no sense trades close usually during stalls or pre reversal/continuation.
I use to teach it's M&Ms signaling where their clients have strong orders pending or just closed by the broker. ONLY works with the OTC 2 tier system for front trading. I use to call it a vote for direction wanted. The higher the number at bid / ask the more the broker needed the price to move that way.
You usually see several of these hundred orders close over a few to 10 minutes. Then a price reversal or continuation in the direction where the most votes are cast.
Ex: the price is running strong, all of a sudden the trades stop closing for 5 / 10 minutes. (the stall) Then you see a 200 close at bid then 2 more 300 & 100. A few minutes later one at ask 500. The one at bid 100. Most brokers need to refill lower and the stall changes direction and the price falls. The concessions was down.
Thanks NBRI double bottom target .056+/-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NBRI&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20011259259
Thanks BMSN off watch to entry for tomorrow. No chance to move to strong watch with todays candle! Target .0026+/-. No opportunity to get 1st small entry, at trend line break. May be able to day trade a 25% gain tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMSN&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p48084356051
AMBS also. Been up dating that one. My standing strong watch order closed today. Will be taking profits tomorrow on that one day candle reaching target! 30%+/-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p12069541616
ILIV - Strong watch
I'm ball parking 282 million shares for sale as of Sept Q3 disclosure. Looks like most held between .0001 to .001. Where and how much in Q4, have no idea till late filing released.
The company shell shifted to new owners in April, since then Authorized was increased from 100 mil to 2 bil, then up to 6 bil. And series A preferred cleaned out. The poison pill was swallowed by old owners.
Attention pop Sept, News started NOV, Action announced Jan.
$50k cash; no rev's as of SEPT 2013.
As Sherlock says, Seems the game is afoot Watson.
I say, nice find. Slow setup since Sept attention pop though. Management seems new to the game. Took a while to get all the ducks lined up. One concern is JAN 13 fluff follow up support PR did NOT include buying support manipulation. Again a management new to the game signal or darkside weak financially still?
Strong watch for .0014 resistance breakout with increasing volume! (could mean second double to attention pop resistance)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ILIV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p39567435106
pennyland
AMBS still strong watch, flag top resistance break looking good. Increasing volume today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p81590651159
NNAN back on strong watch for symmetrical triangle in up trend break. Black candle gap open attempt on slight increase of volume. Looks free trading. ADX close to strong move coming @ 50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NNAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p74848393595
Large candle spikes with red day following is signal of exhaustion.
Never chase a running stock.
Take profits when they present.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PROW&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p51356944614
LOL was just thinking "options on a penny stock???"
That's a longer term pattern and eventually possible. We trade the latest pattern first, then the longer term. Speculation Just like my shorter term speculation of possible Negative heads & shoulders pattern. All that can be done is watch to see what happens. But for now, There's only a small gap play in the chart.
CPST
Looks like My trading rules kept me out of the entire short squeeze, I was expecting. Oh well. Expect gaps fill, now that shorts moved out. I'll keep it on watch for possible flag still.
(link back for post stream)
AMBS getting interesting again. Still have on strong watch and it's stepping toward top resistance again.
(link back for post stream)
Have you been following this one for a looong time? For some reason I think this is a battery company near Philly and was once a subsidiary of Globetel's (GTEL) stratilite powering system. 2004,5,6 ??? When GTEL broke up LQMT came to be. Liquid metals something isn't it.
Maybe I'm thinking back too far. But for some reason I recall LQMT and WSGI Came as a result of the GlobeTel breakup.
I don't think we're near the same address. I was looking for stocks to swing trade this week. Not ones with long term plays in the historical chart. I'm not even sure what pattern your referring to. It's a 3 year chart. 2 months to complete the pattern? Lets call this apples and oranges and move on.
Ps; GOLD just offered a possible long term double bottom. If 1300 +/- is broken, one could expect 1500 +/- after. Plus a shorter term falling wedge being walked out of. That could get it to 1400 DB resistance break point.
Saw this last week but forgot to call to your attention.
Thanks Weak volume today though. Strong watch.
I feel properly managing a watchlist is important
Oh yea FCEL's Monday day trade turned into a quick swing trade. In @ 1.70 Monday out at 1.85 close Tuesday yesterday, candle too large to hold longer @ top resistance target.. Another quick 10% +/-
PLUG kept running WILD ! Missed a lot there. BUT happy with my 30% there. Both PLUG & FCEL now off watch, walking away. PLUG has big gaps below. Watch out below! LOL
PLUG
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PLUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p24751821329
FCEL
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCEL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35582838184
Ps; the reason I held FCEL's Monday day trade, on a red day loss was the volume was less then half the day before. Indicating no retail interest for retrace, just profit taking. And after all it was a froggy high risk trade in the first place. That's my version of testicular aptitude. LOL Felt continuation odds stronger then retrace continuation possible, after lack of red day volume support. If it wasn't for my "half the day before volume" Rule, shows no real negative support. I would have taken my loss.
There's even a rules based logical reason behind my froggy high risk play days.
CAK
Long term there isn't even an established up channel yet. Just lower trend line which may be tested again soon, due to bump & run, with double top. Only touched top line twice, need 3 touches to establish a channel. Besides that's an investment chart, not swing trade chart. The swing chart is signaling break south. Yep I don't trade negative patterns. It doesn't take balls to buy on negative signals. It take lack of brains or a short.
Trading for any reason other then seeing a chart one wants to trade, only requires someone with out a trading plan. And trading that way neutered me years ago. If I don't see what I want to trade, I don't trade! Basic, simple and clean.
For a darkside manipulated run to happen you need 1 mil average daily volume before real run. That volume spike only reached 1 mil. Far from an average daily volume of 1 mil.
IMO boring. NO volume to trade on!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JALA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73389942210
LQMT
Todays chart Plan the trade and trade the plan.
20 cent old resistance now becomes support. Want to re-enter? ; strong watch for support to hold and continue on increasing retail support volume. Other wise walk away!
The reason I'm not counting the pennant and it's poll is because the triangle is way too long ! = symmetrical triangle in an up trend chart. IMO
Original heads up post
Never believe the PR story, trade retail reaction to it !
PAWS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAWS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p92608753245
Looks like the DEC 5th story excited, but had no darkside support with follow thru for run continuation. (Dark master didn't buy the ask stack) to run the emotion generated by their resent news!
Signals stay away till someone manipulates a real run. Still needs funders to fund behind the scenes. They hinted about debit conversion in OCT. with Asher Enterprises, Inc. IMO needs/expects more funding to come.
Welcome back.
Haven't thought much about the coal industry. But first thought would be with all the nat gas the US now has. Power plants are switching from coal to natural gas. That's not good for coal's future.
Dividend plays I find interesting are NYMT, CIM, ARR.
JCP I've liked before Christmas on their turn around efforts management is involved in. Told everyone in my family to buy presents there for Christmas, because they were going to offer real good discounts.
Well the retail discounts happened, but seems the 40% shorts are standing strong! With 40% short, I find it hard to support any trading of the stock, until that number starts thinning out.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/filters/equity_si.aspx
Trade what you want, not what's in front of you.
In the last video I put CPST on watch and expected a retrace, before continuation. At least that's what I wanted, because of strong shorts. A strong short position is when 10% or more of the float is short. CPST had 14.3%. I didn't buy Mondays continuation, even though it did break the 1.40 resistance.
WHY
Because I don't buy day 6, (it's one of my trading rules) which becomes an over extended run. That's why I wanted a retrace then continuation. This is a sentiment thing. So I didn't play what was in front of me. But did move from weekly watch to strong watch.
Here's what I feel just happened with CPST.
When it gapped up at open and finished lower then the day before. It told me, the shorts didn't wait and started moving out first thing Monday. Day 7 same thing and today same thing. We're seeing the short squeeze in a series of black gap candles as the shorts take control of the price action. Holding back strong continuation of an over extended move, while exiting their short positions.